Leonard LaPadula

Weekly Report

04 July 2023

In Part 4 of his 5-part series, Leonard LaPadula, explores TE success rate vs ADP and provides you his strategies for efficiently strengthening your TE position.

RC Intro: Leonard LaPadula is the founder of Advanced Sports Logic, and a long-time friend and colleague of mine. You may know his work as the creator of the DFS Optimizer (that uses FFM for number projections) or way back with the ahead-of-its-time Dynasty/Fantasy software 'The Machine' (which is planned for a comeback/redesign upgrade in the near future! Good news for 'Machine' fans!). Leonard was one of the FFM original customers back in FFM's infancy and has been with FFM for all his Dynasty/Fantasy teams for over a decade. Leonard has some unique, data-driven thoughts about how to manage his Dynasty teams and he shares them in published articles from time-to-time. He thought this report might be of interest to the FFM community, so I'm glad to post his thoughts/data here.

Introduction of the Study

This article is an analytical analysis of dynasty rookie TE draft picks, comparing average draft position (ADP) with success rate. It is the 4^th part of a five part series, which includes:

• How To Add A QB1 To Your Dynasty Team
• How To Add An RB1 To Your Dynasty Team
• How To Add A WR1 To Your FF Dynasty Team

I do these analyses for managing my own dynasty football team. I have learned a lot from these studies and it is helping me make decisions in my Dynasty Fantasy Football team.

The QB analysis destroyed my long-held belief, that top QBs have the longest NFL longevity of the fantasy football relevant positions. I was shocked to see that generally they peak in year two and decline after that. I also discovered that there seems to a successful band by ADP of QB picks in the 2.07 to 3.03 range.

And I found that RBs have a very pronounced drop off after year six.

I didn't find anything quite so surprising with respect to WRs.

If I were to summarize my findings with respect to TEs in a single word it is "dartboard". But that would make this article short and boring so let's dive in.

Historical ADP Information

Based on historical ADP information, this is where tight ends were drafted over the last nine years:

Now here is the shocking part. These are the notable tight ends that had a rookie-year ADP below the 3rd round in the last 9 years and have been top-6 TEs at least once: Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas. Here are additional tight ends that have been TE1s that fell below the 3rd round in their Dynasty Rookie Draft: Taysom Hill, Dalton Schultz, Juwan Johnson and Dawson Knox.

What about Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski? They are not part of this study because they entered the NFL league prior to 2014 and I don't have the ADP data any further back. However, they are the prototypical example of what we are looking for - a top-6 TE that lasts a decade - and are proof that this type of TE can exist, albeit they are very rare.

I believe the randomness of the success for tight ends is because of the variation of how they are used. A top TE for the NFL is measured first for their run and pass blocking. The ability for a TE to run routes and catch are the icing on the cake. So, a top-6 TE isn't top-6 because of their skillset alone, but also based heavily on the offensive scheme, their quarterback's preferences, game planning and game situation. Receivers and running backs primary purpose is to pick up yards, blocking is secondary, so an RBs or WRs skillset generally correlates better with fantasy points than for a TE. We get TE fantasy points on only from a secondary skillset of a TE for NFL purposes. The rare exception is that special TE that is the best guy on the team for getting red zone touch downs (and spiking the ball like Gronk).

Therefore, from a fantasy perspective top NFL tight ends can lurk below the radar for years, then seemingly pop-up out of nowhere because they changed teams or head coaches and the offensive scheme changed. And then just as easily they can fall back into obscurity when the scheme or quarterback changes again. 

Success Rate vs Years of Experience

The next step in my analysis is to see how these players panned-out since being drafted. In my analyses of the different position, I have valued the top 12 QBs, the top 24 RBs and top 36 WRs based on my league's starting lineup requirements. For TEs, I value just the top 12, with a value of 1 for a top-6 and a value of 0.5 for 7th through 12th.

Then I took the integral of their results and got this chart:

Only one TE drafted in the last 9 years with an ADP in the first three rounds was a top-6 TE two years in a row, Austin Hooper with an ADP of 33 (pick 3.09) and no TE was a TE1 for more than 3 years in a row. The TE1s showing up at ADP of 17 is a combination of Hunter Henry (rookie in 2016) and Mike Gesicki (rookie in 2018). Otherwise you can see the top TEs poke in and out in different years.

The valuable information pops out in the last row. It shows the success rate versus years of experience.

Generally, TEs seem to improve over the first three years, and then start a slow decline.

Next I put this information into graphical form:

Again, the focus of this article is to help you decide how to use your draft picks in a dynasty rookie draft and I don't have ADP data going back more than 9 years, so this chart doesn't include Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, etc. And for the purpose of deciding if you will use a pick on a TE it is valuable.

Let's finish breaking down draft value versus ADP.

Leonard LaPadula

Weekly Report

19 June 2023

In Part 3 of his series, ASL's Founder, Leonard LaPadula, explores WR success rate vs ADP and provides you his strategies for efficiently strengthening your WR position.

RC Intro: Leonard LaPadula is the founder of Advanced Sports Logic, and a long-time friend and colleague of mine. You may know his work as the creator of the DFS Optimizer (that uses FFM for number projections) or way back with the ahead-of-its-time Dynasty/Fantasy software 'The Machine' (which is planned for a comeback/redesign upgrade in the near future! Good news for 'Machine' fans!). Leonard was one of the FFM original customers back in FFM's infancy and has been with FFM for all his Dynasty/Fantasy teams for over a decade. Leonard has some unique, data-driven thoughts about how to manage his Dynasty teams and he shares them in published articles from time-to-time. He thought this report might be of interest to the FFM community, so I'm glad to post his thoughts/data here.

Introduction of the Study

This article is an analytical analysis of dynasty rookie WR draft picks, comparing average draft position (ADP) with success rate. It is the 3rd part of a four part series, which includes How To Add A QB1 To Your Dynasty Team and How To Add An RB1 To Your Dynasty Team.

I do these analyses for myself to manage my own dynasty football team. I was surprised by what I have found so far in both studies. The QB analysis destroyed my long-held belief, that top QBs have the longest NFL longevity of the fantasy football relevant positions. I was shocked to see that generally they peak in year two and decline after that. I also discovered that there seems to a successful band by ADP of QB picks in the 2.07 to 3.03 range. And I found that RBs have a very pronounced drop off after year six.

I didn't find anything quite so surprising with respect to WRs. So, let's dive in.

Historical ADP Information

Based on historical ADP information, this is where receivers backs were drafted over the last nine years:

A notable WR that had an ADP greater than 36 is Tyreek Hill. Some top WRs that slipped to the 3rd round of dynasty drafts are Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin. The steals of the decade have to be Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams (ADP 2.06, 18th overall).

Success Rate vs Years of Experience

The next step in my analysis is to see how these players panned-out since being drafted. In my analysis of QBs, on only evaluated the top-12 QBs, assigning them a value of 1 for ranking top-6, and 0.5 for ranking 7^th to 12^th. With RBs, since we must start two RBs in my league, I valued the top 24 RBs, assigning them 1 for ranking in the top-6, 0.75 for ranking 7^th-12^th, 0.50 for ranking 13^th to 18^th, and 0.25 for ranking 19^th to 24^th.

For WRs, since we must start three in our PPR league, I valued the top 36, assigning them values accordingly:

• Ranking 1-6: 1.0
• Ranking 7-12: 0.75
• Ranking 13-18: 0.50
• Ranking 19-24: 0.375
• Ranking 25-30: 0.25
• Ranking 31-36: 0.125

Then I took the integral of their results and got this chart:

The valuable information pops out in the last row. It shows the success rate versus years of experience. Next I put this information into graphical form:

It didn't surprise me to see that WRs have what seems to be a 3-year learning curve. On average they perform best three years in, and then settle out after that. What did surprise me is that they tend to stay fairly flat all the way out to nine years.

Only two rookie WRs made it into the top 36 last year, Chris Olave and Drake London, and they were both WR3s. The chart above should be an encouragement to Olave and London owners, because it seems likely that their best years are ahead of them.

Some 2nd-year WRs that R.C. has ranked highly are:

Leonard LaPadula

Weekly Report

07 June 2023

In Part 2 of his series, ASL's Founder, Leonard LaPadula, explores RB success rate vs ADP and provides you his strategies for efficiently strengthening your RB position.

RC Intro: Leonard LaPadula is the founder of Advanced Sports Logic, and a long-time friend and colleague of mine. You may know his work as the creator of the DFS Optimizer (that uses FFM for number projections) or way back with the ahead-of-its-time Dynasty/Fantasy software 'The Machine' (which is planned for a comeback/redesign upgrade in the near future! Good news for 'Machine' fans!). Leonard was one of the FFM original customers back in FFM's infancy and has been with FFM for all his Dynasty/Fantasy teams for over a decade. Leonard has some unique, data-driven thoughts about how to manage his Dynasty teams and he shares them in published articles from time-to-time. He thought this report might be of interest to the FFM community, so I'm glad to post his thoughts/data here.

Introduction of the Study

This article is an analytical analysis of dynasty rookie RB draft picks, comparing average draft position (ADP) with success rate. It is the 2nd part of a four part series. The first part is How To Add A QB1 To Your Dynasty Team.

I do these analyses for myself to manage my own dynasty football team. My previous analysis destroyed a long time belief that I held that top QBs have the longest NFL longevity of the fantasy football relevant positions. I was shocked to see that generally top QBs peak in year two and decline after that. I also discovered that there seems to a successful band by ADP of QB picks in the 2.07 to 3.03 range.

Doing the similar analysis for RBs I was surprised to find the opposite of both of my findings regarding QBs. So let's dive in.

Historical ADP Information

Based on historical ADP information, this is where running backs were drafted over the last nine years:

Some notable RBs that had an ADP greater than 36 include Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard. Besides these RBs that somehow managed to completely escape the radar of the mainstream echo-chamber, there really aren't any deep ADP steals of the decade. Perhaps the closest to this are David Johnson and Kareem Hunt, both drafted at 2.03 (15th overall). We might see some RBs with later ADPs from last year pop such as Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco and Dameon Pierce. I drafted Tyler Allgeier in the 2nd round last year and all the signs were pointing to Allgeier taking over the RB reigns from Cordarrelle Paterson this year but with media-hyped favorite Bijan Robinson joining the Atlanta backfield those hopes are now greatly diminished.

Success Rate vs Years of Experience

The next step in my analysis is to see how the RBs drafted in the last nine years panned-out. If you read my QB analysis, you know I only valued top 12 QBs, assigning them a value of 1 if they were in the top 6, and a value of 0.5 if they ranked 7th to 12th. Since we must start two RBs in my league, I valued the top 24 RBs, accordingly:

• Ranked 1-6: 1.00
• Ranked 7-12: 0.75
• Ranked 13-18: 0.50
• Ranked 19-24: 0.25

Then I took the integral of their results by years experience and got this chart:

R.C. Fischer

Weekly Report

06 June 2023

The Cleveland Browns paid a high price for Watson, but will they get what they paid for? R.C. looks closely at his 2022 film for signs of life.

Deshaun Watson has had an interesting twist of a career… The highest paid QB/the mega contract of 2022…the biggest trade of 2022 offseason…the 12-game suspension…the constant court-related events, the 'meh' Browns debut/reveal. I remember Watson being very skittish and underwhelming his 2022 return…and his numbers certainly help confirm that memory -- 58.2% Comp. Pct., 7 TDs/5 INTs, 183.7 pass yards per game in six games.

The data is on the side of my memories, but in order to feel better about my Watson…and thus feel better about my Amari, DPJ, Njoku, etc., projections (and Browns win-loss projections)…and with some concern that I dislike Deshaun so much for various reasons that my judgment could be clouded…all that led me to set out to rewatch/scout all of his 2022 games to see 'how bad was it?'…or was there an initial rust and then improvement shown that could lead to a further leap in 2023? So, that's what I did -- watched every one of his 2022 games (but one) and took scouting notes.

Here are my 2022 season/game-by-game rewatch and scouting of Deshaun Watson…

Again, for context, I was going into this wanting to confirm or even more push back on my simple/quick mindset that Deshaun was pretty bad in 2022 and he may be losing it under the bizarre circumstances that his career has taken. However, after watching all his games, I wound up with some different impressions/thoughts/projections that were a bit of a surprise to me. But the surprise finding is a twist that I didn't see coming. I'll explain when we get there.

Watson returned Week 13 vs. Houston, of all opponents to return back for, and after watching all his 2022 games (but one) in chronological order, I would tell you we should ignore this game. It was his debut, and it was bad (12-22 for 131 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)…but all the games after this were much better than this (because this was so awful). I was noting simple notes of 'positive' and 'negative' and 'neutral' on each play/snap-by-snap in all these games, and this debut game was the one filled with negatives. The rest of his games were not like this at all. So, I throw it out and blame 'rust'.

Week 14, facing a top 10 defense in Cincinnati, Watson was much better/not a disaster (26-42 for 276 yards, 1 TD/1 INT). In his prior game, Watson was short arming the ball, looking skittish/indecisive…the following week here he cut down on all that sloppiness. Week 15 vs. Baltimore was more of the same -- looking more comfortable but not really tearing things up either…18-28 for 161 yards, 1 TD/0 INT.

Week 16 game hosting the Saints was that game in freezing temps and 30-40+ MPH winds…so, it was not normal by any means, and I just ignored it.

Week 17 vs. Washington started a bit shaky (an attacking WSH defense/got sacked 5 times) but Watson pulled it together for a weird 9-18 for 169 yards effort but had 3 TDs/0 INTs. Week 18 vs. the Steelers was played to win by both sides, Pitt having things to play for, and Watson got sacked 7 times but had his best Comp. Pct. game (65.5%) of his return -- 19-29 for 230 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs.

After watching all the games, the quick summary notes of my Watson 2022 scouting…

 -- Watson improved some each week…or, at least, improved from his shaky debut.

Leonard LaPadula

Weekly Report

23 May 2023

A Top-6 QB is the cornerstone for building a competitive dynasty team. Leonard LaPadula analyzes ADP vs success rate to find efficient ways to add top QB talent. 

R.C. Fischer

Weekly Report

18 May 2023

Alert: the Dynasty Rookie Draft market is making a dramatic shift that the mainstream sites haven't caught up with yet.

R.C. Fischer

Weekly Report

05 May 2023

Is Chase Brown the Samaje replacement...or the Mixon replacement...or both...or neither?

R.C. Fischer

Weekly Report

13 April 2023

R.C. is building up to his dynasty rookie draft top-12 ranking. This is the running back part of his 7-part series.

Ross Jacobs

Weekly Report

13 April 2023

National Mock Draft expert Ross Jacobs's gives his v5.0 1st-round mock draft with a projected trade and full commentary on each pick.

R.C. Fischer

Weekly Report

19 March 2023

Here we are - one-week into the NFL free agency period. There are a lot of moving pieces. R.C. goes through the impact team-by-team.