Scouting NFL preseason game tape for Dynasty/Fantasy Football and handicapping purposes...
Game overview:
Despite 4 fumbles (2 lost) and a pick thrown, the Broncos outplayed the Colts after the starters began to check out for the day...and Denver won it 34-30.
The Colts ran their 1st-team for 2-3 series, and they looked vanilla/OK. Nothing jumped out one way or the other, as a team.
Denver ran their starters 2-3-4 series or so, and looked better once they started getting into the 2nd and 3rd-team work, because of the QB advantage over Indy. Denver feels like they are ‘on the rise’ but more so a year+ away...they need to flush some older names (not age, but time served) and keep bringing in fresh upgraded talent.
The difference in this game...was Bo Nix, so let’s start there...
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- This was the Bo Nix (15-21 for 125 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-17-0) NFL debut, and it was terrific...from an NFL perspective.
I’ve now watched all the big-name rookie QBs in action for their NFL debuts, and I think Nix had the best showing of the group. J.J. McCarthy had a helluva splash, but also threw into trouble a few too many times to compare to Nix’s debut. We didn’t get enough Jayden Daniels to really say, but he looked fine with what he did...’fine’, as expected. Michael Penix is/was a Jugs machine just launching passes everywhere, as he does, and is the more dangerous, more aggressive thrower of the group, but he’s not erratic...but also not a game manager. By contrast to them all, Bo Nix ran a masterclass on NFL QB play...calm, played within himself, within the offense, didn’t try to force anything but wasn’t passive, strong arm, accurate, read the situations well...it was beautiful NFL play for a rookie debut. Nix looked like he’d been playing for 5+ years in the league.
Nix did play like 8 years in college, or so it felt, so he has an experience advantage...and that combined with Sean Payton managing him – Denver fans have a legit QB.
Rookie QBs should not be so good, so comfortable, so fast...with old school thinking. The new era QBs, the good+ ones, are ready to heat-and-serve instantly. If they are not...it’s a scouting concern – like with Caleb Williams...and CW isn’t terrible, he has gifts, but he doesn’t have the processing mind or leadership the other guys do.
For FF purposes, Nix is on the game-manager side...so the FF upside is murky as a rookie, and given his mediocre weapons. NFL-wise, he looked really nice. The FF upside is more in the future than the now.
-- Bo Nix is going to be the Week 1 starter for Denver, unless Sean Payton wants to lose like an NBA team outright tanking for lottery slots.
The QB competition is not even close.
Jarrett Stidham (4-7 for 37 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) started and was ‘meh’/typical Stidham.
Zach Wilson (10-13 for 117 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) was in last and wasn’t terrible. Made some nice throws...had some shaky moments.
My 2-cent prediction: Denver starts Nix Week 1. They keep Zach Wilson as a #2. They cut or more likely trade Stidham before the 53-man cut down...and the Lions should already be on the phone with them. Then Payton will pickup a developmental QB off someone’s cut list or practice squad to groom as a #3. It could be the reverse of that with Wilson gone, and on the move to Detroit or elsewhere.
Denver should be playing for 2025, so the #2 QB situation in 2024, holding a veteran -- doesn’t really matter. If Nix goes down...season over, if it isn’t already.
-- Broncos RB report...
Javonte Williams (4-15-0, 1-5-0/2) started...and looks like the CLEAR starter. He may be thinner, but he didn’t look any faster than last year. Since his knee injury and surgery a few years ago, Javonte has not looked the same. He looks like a regular ol’ boring RB2/3 anymore...no excitement here anymore, hasn’t been for a few years now.
Jaleel McLaughlin (7-30-0, 2-26-0/3) spelled/worked with Javonte some, but there was NO sign of a ‘split’. And Jaleel is not talented enough to just ‘take over’. He’s a bit player in the mix/rotation...a solid ‘bit’ player, but ‘bit’ nonetheless.
Rookie Audric Estime (10-31-1, 3-13-0/3) came in and did his ‘run straight and ram into people’ routine. There’s a place in the world for it, but he’s not a lead three-down RB, on purpose.
Honestly, the best-looking RB for Denver in this game...the only one with any juice on display – it was UDFA rookie Blake Watson (9-26-1, 1-33-0/1). Looked very quick...albeit running very late in the game against the lowest form of Indy defense. Just speed ‘looks’ wise...I was impressed with his movement skills. Not ‘special’...but promising.
-- Broncos WR report...
Similar to the RB report...a lot of ‘capable’ but not a lot of ‘wow’.
Courtland Sutton (2-35-0/3) led the way, because he has to...but it doesn’t look great, just solid/good. 2024 with Nix could be a decent spot for him with Nix being solid and the Broncos not having much at WR otherwise.
Marvin Mims (2-17-1/3) has a nice, easy route to the end zone in goal-to-go for a sweet Nix TD throw...perfect timing on both ends. Other than that, didn’t see much of Mims...AND he was still going in the game in the 4th-quarter some.
Tim Patrick (1-14-0/1)...the clock is ticking.
Josh Reynolds (1-11-0/2)...had a nice route/catch, as he is very likely a starter for Week 1.
-- Broncos TE report...
Greg Dulcich (1-5-0/2) didn’t do anything to get Sean Payton excited...or me.
Lucas Krull (4-31-0/4) looked good enough in this game. He’s gonna make the team and may have a bigger role than anyone would’ve expected. He did get hurt in this game and will miss a little time.
-- Anthony Richardson (2-4 for 25 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 1-1-0) started and looked fine with his cannon arm throwing bullets. I see no issues due to his shoulder injury from last year.
-- Indy RB report...
Jonathan Taylor (2-4-0) only got a couple carries, and they were ‘uninspired’ to say the least. Just two touches, so no big deal...but I have to go back and see if JT ever worked in a spread offense with those RPO scenarios with the QB. I think JT has mostly taken pro style straight up handoffs in his career. Working the spread looked clunky/unusual with him...may have just been optics or something else unimportant.
When you’re taking those handoffs that could be pulled away for the RPO...you’re usually not in a good space to then go get passes. I’m just sayin’...
Trey Sermon (1-12-0/1) got a hamstring injury and will miss time...opening the door for others, but he’s likely got the #2 RB job...for now.
Tyler Goodson (7-15-1, 2-1-0/2) was the #3 RB and looked OK. He works well in the pass game. He’s serviceable but not a 3-down RB backup.
Evan Hull (8-16-1, 1-15-0/1) came in after Sermon/Goodson...and he wasn’t bad. I’d take him over Sermon, but I think Indy feels differently.
-- Colts WR report...
Alec Pierce (0-0-0/1) started at WR and looked like 2023 Pierce still...not like the very good 2022 Pierce.
Adonai Mitchell (1-11-0/2) started because Josh Downs is hurt, and he did fine. He’s just not in a good FF-situation for himself when Downs is back.
-- Jelani Woods (1-17-0/2) was maybe the 4th TE in the game. He had an easy TD opportunity off a nice route downfield in the red zone -- but the QB got hit as he threw it and that caused an underthrown/pick...just Jelani’s luck.
Jelani later caught a pass over the middle and knocked two guys out of the game who tried to tackle them and they laid on the field after…as Woods got up and went back to the huddle. Both guys needed the trainers.
Still, Jelani does not look like he’s a main part of anything. I am folding my cards on any deep sleeper thoughts right away in 2024. I still hold my Jelani cards overall, but even with that -- I’m getting mentally ready to fold them overall as well. It’s just not happening yet with him and the clock is ticking. I don’t need another Donald Parham in my life.
-- IDP notes...
Rookie pass rush god, Laiatu Latu (1 tackle), played with the starters...but didn’t start. He rotated in on pass downs. I focused on his first two pass rushes. First one, he got blocked well. Second one, he blew by Garrett Bolles so fast, Bolles had to tackle him from behind before he got to the QB. No call by the excellent refs...
It’s all I needed to see. I know/knew what we got with him.
Denver 2nd-year CB Riley Moss (2 tackles) did start...he’s likely their #2 starter and he looked fine. Nothing amazing or troubling...he did his job.
