- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Broncos 38, Lions 10
I don’t think anyone was shocked by this outcome. I thought Detroit might be able to hang close/within the big spread, but then the Lions lost several players to COVID on top of just generally sucking and a 28-point beatdown ensued.
Detroit falls to (1-11-1) and could win Week 16 v. ATL to get to two wins and their tie, and that be a devastating win to allow the loser of this week’s JAX-HOU matchup to possibly slip into the #1 pick spot ahead of Detroit.
The funny thing is -- all three coaches of these bottom feeding teams are motivated to win by whatever delusions play out in their heads. Dan Campbell and David Culley think ‘wins’ build momentum…like field goal attempts do when you’re losing 47-0 (hey, at least we didn’t get shutout! What momentum!!). And then there’s the new Jags O-C, the kiss-of-death to any head coach…assistant coach Darrell Bevell – he thinks winning a game could land him a head job! Ha!!
These three guys…when they need to win, they lose. When the smartest thing they can do is lose…they’ll go and win and ruin the draft positioning.
Denver is now (7-6), and they might fulfill my June-July-August preseason wild card prediction. Their fate may hinge on Week 15 hosting Cincinnati…a game they’re favored to win, but I think they will lose. Win Week 15 and they should be able to get to a minimum of 9 wins. Lose Week 15 and it’s going to be a tough road to 9 wins, and then allowing Cincy to have a tiebreaker over them might come back to haunt them if they all end up with 9 wins. Huge Week 15 game this week for Denver…and the future of Vic Fangio.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Godwin Igwebuike (8-25-0) started in this game, but was (shockingly, to me) quickly rotating in and out with Craig Reynolds (11-83-0, 2-16-0/2)…who was just activated off the practice squad for this game.
The two backs were switching in and out every few plays, but when Igwebuike was in he would not see the ball, but Reynolds would come in and get a hand-off…and he’d gash the defense for 5-10+ yards…then they’d rotate, then they’d rotate back again with Reynolds gashing the defense again.
I was shocked and somewhat appalled to see Reynolds getting such work via the box score on Sunday – why wasn’t Igwebuike getting more of a push after what he’s done the past few weeks? But watching this game back, I ended up appalled that they’ve kept Reynolds on the practice squad and didn’t give him 20+ touches here. He was clearly the better back and making things happen, but because Detroit is Detroit…they pulled back the reins on any success happening.
Assuming Swift is out again this week, I’d assume a Jamaal Williams ‘start’ and then Reynolds taking a split workload and eventually outperforming Williams…whatever that means, via 2nd-half garbage in a 20+ point deficit. But, who knows the mind of Dan Campbell?
-- I know what the trend says…I know there’s good garbage time with Lions players…but I just can’t get strongly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-73-0/12).
His last two games: 9.0 rec. (12.0 targets), 79.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = it should be exciting, but every time a Lions receiver has a good junk-time game or two, then they pull the rug out from under you.
I’m the one probably in the wrong, but this week vs. Byron Murphy is not good…but then again opponents are usually playing backups 2nd-half in a 20pt+ lead, so…you should probably be OK with ARSB.
-- T.J. Hockenson (DNP) is now done for the year…I knew they were covering up or hoping against hope on his injury the past week or so. Any viable FF replacements for the Lions?
No
Brock Wright (3-20-0/5) is a stiff who will catch a couple passes by being ‘available’.
Shane Zylstra (2-18-0/6) is an interesting convert to TE, a former WR…a D3 star…but he looked like a scared, skinny TE in this game…but that’s to be expected. He did lead the Lions in snaps at TE? Maybe he shakes off the jitters and comes on a bit as we go? 6’3”/220+, big wingspan and hands, unknown speed/agility (2020 rookie in the COVID offseason of no/low testing).
-- Let’s finish out the Lions’ notes with an IDP…
Linebacker Josh Woods (13 tackles, 2 TFLs) got his first start, due to injuries/COVID and landed 13 tackles. He played half a game Week 13 and had 8 tackles. I watched him a bunch in this game…undersized/needs more muscle/bulk but is a decent athlete and he moves around to the ball well. He was patrolling the middle…which is a good place when you’re on DET with teams running out big leads there.
If Alex Anzalone is out again, and I think he will be – Woods could be in for double-digit tackles again this week.
-- Noah Fant (4-51-0/4) hasn’t scored a TD in six games. He’s basically become a TE2 with Albert O. (5-41-1/5) rising up to TE2.
The past 6 games:
3.4 FF/7.2 PPR PPG from 3.8 rec. (4.8 targets), 33.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Fant (last 6 games)
4.5 FF/7.7 PPR PPG from 3.2 rec. (3.7 targets), 35.0 yards, 0.2 TDs per game = Albert O. (last 6 games)
-- So, this game began with a tribute to the late Demaryius Thomas. It was touching. Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) stayed off the field the first play to do a tribute…a 10-man huddle. Denver was penalized for it, but Detroit declined. Then Sutton came in solo to a rousing applause…Sutton being close with DT and Sutton a team leader. It was nice.
…but that’s why it was even more confusing to see Sutton get just 2 targets and one catch…a continuation of the total nothing he is producing for the team anymore besides a downfield decoy. It’s not him, it’s Teddy. If there was any game you were gonna plan to get Sutton going – versus Detroit in this emotional scenario would be it…and yet nothing.
That’s my cue, our cue to totally bail on Sutton for FF 2021.
He’s a buy low for 2022 right now, but pure unreliable FF-garbage for 2021 ROS right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Sutton
52 = Patrick
41 = Jeudy
10 = Hinton
50 = Fant
38 = Albert O
40 = Zylstra
35 = Brock Wright
29 = Reynolds
28 = Igwebuike
03 = Jermar Jefferson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: 49ers 26, Bengals 23
The Bengals were the better team here.
I keep saying that in Bengals games they lose. I have some justification for making those claims. Cincy has lost 6 games this season…four of them by three points, two of them in OT by three.
They were better than Green Bay Week 5 in their OT loss/missed FG festival game. They were better than the Chargers Week 13, when they lost by 19…down 24-0 in a blink, and then stormed right back into it but coughed up the comeback. They were better than SF here…clearly better, but when you fumble your first four kick/punt returns and lose two of them…you’re digging a hole that’s tough to come back from.
Cincy dug themselves a 20-6 hole on dumb return game turnovers, not on bad execution, and roared back to tie the game, dropped a game winning pick six with seconds remaining, going to OT and taking the lead, only to blow it in the end.
My bombastic statement of the day: Had the Bengals drafted Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater, instead of Ja’Marr Chase…the Bengals would be the best team in the AFC today.
They have a better defense than KC-LAC-TEN.
Their QB is just as good as KC-LAC…and way better than TEN-NE.
Their rookie kicker is a weapon now.
Their problem is they have the worst O-Line among the top AFC contenders. History will judge the selection of Chase over O-Line pick at #5 in the 2021 NFL Draft as a franchise damning move…just like Dallas’s Ezekiel over Ramsey pick that’s been forgotten over time…not by me.
If there is a benevolent football god, the Bengals will win the AFC North. They are that division’s best team. They are (7-6) now, one game out…but the leaders in Baltimore are on the ropes/potentially going to lose 3-4 of their next four games and flush out. If Cincy can go to Denver and beat them this week – the Bengals are likely going to win the AFC North. If they lose to Denver, then it’s still up in the air. We project Cincy to finish (9-8) and winners of the AFC North…but (8-9) is not out of the question.
San Francisco got a real gift win here. Not that they played poorly, but they got every advantage and still barely eked it out. They are now (7-6) and should win a minimum of 9 games and make the playoffs…but they got a shot at 10 wins and then a for-sure wild card trip. We see them at 9 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not kidding… Joe Burrow (25-34 for 348 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is as good as AFC QB elite’s Mahomes-Herbert-Allen. For FF purposes, he’d run 4th in the pack – but in NFL terms he’s as good or better than them, I believe. Burrow has a Joe Montana, Tom Brady type of ability to run an offense, and over time he will be the emotional leader (he kinda already is in year two).
If Burrow is that good – there is a Fantasy future, a Dynasty opportunity. He’s not seen by the public as anywhere close to Mahomes-Herbert-Allen, but he might be there soon with big passer numbers ahead…especially if they get him an O-Line. But that’s the risk…they never do, they just keep drafting WRs instead. Arizona keeps drafting outside linebackers to not protect Kyler, so if they are missing the boat…Cincy for sure could and has.
Burrow has a tough finish, schedule-wise for FF 2021…DEN-BAL-KC, and all outdoor, potentially cold weather games. Still, he’s so good he might will his way to a string of 300+ yard and 2+ TD games.
-- Jimmy Garoppolo (27-41 for 296 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) is pretty darn good in his own right. He’s Burrow lite…not as gifted, not as athletic but really solid with protection and is a team leader.
Jimmy G. has thrown for 2 TDs in a game in five of his last 6 games. He’s thrown for 290+ yards in a game in four of his last 7 games. He faces ATL this week…think he might do 290+/2+ again Week 15? Highly possible.
You know how to tell JG is playing really well? The amount of ‘San Francisco needs to just go ahead and start Trey Lance’ articles and social media snipes have gone from 400,000+ per week to near zero. There are more ‘maybe the 49ers should just roll with Jimmy G. in 2022’ discussions than ‘Where is Trey?’ bellyaching.
-- Deebo Samuel (8-37-1, 1-22-0/1) is having the most bizarre season I may have ever seen in my decade+ of serious football observation.
First part of the season he’s doing fine/OK enough but then he would have that one wild, long TD play to make him an FF star every week. Then he totally changes gears and becomes a total dud of a WR but is suddenly the 49ers change of pace RB who cannot-not score a TD every week.
And Deebo doesn’t look great running the ball. He gets the handoff and starts scurrying, arms flailing and flapping…like a WR trying to play RB…but then it seems the defense is paralyzed by the sight of him carrying the ball and they watch him blow by everyone for a score.
In this game, the Bengals are the first team I’ve seen this season finally realize that when Deebo is lined up at RB…he’s 90% likely getting the ball. However, Deebo did shake loose for a jet sweep 27-yard untouched TD run…but 7 carries for 10 yards otherwise.
For the past three weeks, Deebo is like a Dontrell Hilliard or Tony Pollard…a secondary RB who is on a lucky TD run. In his last three games, Deebo’s receiving numbers:
Week 11 = 1 rec., 15 yards, 2 targets
Week 12 = 1 rec., 12 yards, 4 targets
Week 14 = 1 rec., 22 yards, 1 target
How can you be a ‘#1 WR’ and see 1 catch a game? But his carry counts have been 8-6-8 in a game in that same span.
If he doesn’t rush for a TD, he’d be deemed a borderline FF bust the past three games with his shift to the quasi-RB position. And he doesn’t even look that good running the ball – he’s nothing like Cordarrelle or Curtis Samuel/2020 or even Rondale Moore. But, somehow, he flaps his way to the end zone every week…so, why fight it?
-- With shift of Deebo to change of pace RB, Brandon Aiyuk (6-62-1/10) has become the team’s new #1 WR. He’s a very shaky #1 WR…12 catches on 22 targets the past three games combined. But he’s getting WR2 looks and giving WR2 outputs, so why fight it?
-- The real #1 WR among all the players in this game is Tee Higgins (5-114-0/7). Three-straight games with 110+ receiving yards. 9.7 targets per game the past three weeks. And he works with Joe Montana 2.0, so it’s onward and upward from here.
-- Ja’Marr Chase (5-77-2/8) is also getting a free ride off Joe Montana 2.0…in between several dropped passes, Chase will spring free, and Burrow will plant one on him for a score. To my wine critic, snobby football scouting eye sensibilities, Ja’Marr offends me…kinda like Deebo…not that they aren’t good players but their extreme outputs are above their reality. There are guys like Curtis Samuel, Rashod Bateman, Mike Williams, Bryan Edwards, Darnell Mooney, Michael Gallup, Deonte Harris, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton who are more gifted, in some cases WAY more gifted than Deebo-Ja’Marr, but they haven’t had the same luck and/or QB play to get the recognition…or FF payback.
Ja’Marr has officially dropped 11 passes, but I’d say it’s more like 17-20 so far…the ‘drop’ judgement calls by statisticians are about as bad as U.S. election tabulations. Open to interpretation and filled with bias.
-- Jeff Wilson (13-56-0) has been forced to start twice, off Elijah Mitchell injuries, and he has done crap with those starts. He looks fine to my eyes on the tape, but then I see he has 44 carries for 139 yards this season…3.2 yards per carry. Why am I interested in him Week 15 if Mitchell is out again?
-- The Bengals defense was firing in this game…it’s just their special teams kept fumbling the ball away and putting them in bad positions. 5 sacks of JG…and 9 QB hits.
Cincy LB Joe Bachie (4 tackles) starting in the middle with Logan Wilson out…I thought he looked very promising. Very rangy and athletic. There’s an upside here.
-- Evan McPherson (3/4 FGs, 2/2 XP) is averaging 2.5 FGs made per game the past 4 weeks. He’s also #1 in 50+ yard FGs (7) this season (tied with Chris Boswell). Just note for Week 15 – McPherson is a top long-distance kicker, and he plays at Denver in pretty perfect weather for December.
If Week 15 is do-or-die, and you get extra points for distance kicks, McPherson is set up to possibly be a PK savior this week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = Mixon
28 = Perine
67 = Aiyuk
55 = Deebo
47 = Jauan Jennings
13 = Sherfield
42 = J Wilson
14 = Hasty
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Seahawks 33, Texans 13
I don't think I need to tell anyone that neither of these teams are very good. The Seahawks won by 20 but I would not call this a dominant win. They muddled around with Houston for 3 quarters before finally slamming the door shut late. It wasn't pretty.
Davis Mills was running roughshod over the Seattle defense much of the game and it wasn't anything great he was doing. I think this defense is about to get lit up by the Rams.
The Seahawks get to 5-8 with some playoff delusions in mind. The reality is that they still have to play the Rams and Cardinals, neither a likely win. That leaves the Lions and Bears as the two most likely remaining wins which would get them to 7-10, a respectable total considering Wilson's absence in the middle of the season, but still not remotely good enough to win this division much less make a run at a Superbowl.
Changes will be coming to Seattle this next year, and I think that's going to start with Pete Carroll getting fired right after the season is over. It's either him or Russell is going to demand a trade. Something's got to give. And if you're Seattle management, it's a no-brainer, you release Carroll and give Russell whatever he wants. Anything else would be a shock.
Houston...I don't know what to say about them anymore. It's a dumpster fire down there. It was a dumpster fire coming into the season and everyone knew it. This team is untalented, missing draft picks, no real future at QB, and a weak head coach. I see no good coming to the Texans for several years at least.
Fantasy Notes
--All bow before the great and powerful RC! Rashaad Penny (16-137-2) was a godsend for many of us at RB this week. I personally debated Penny versus Foreman quite hard and was ultimately swayed by my supreme trust in RC. It doesn't always work out, but more often than not it does, and this is one of his best. I was actually texting him early on how angry I was for trusting him as Foreman scored an early TD while Penny was rotating carries with Collins and Dallas...and then Penny scored to even it up...and then scored again late to finish with a monster day!
Before we get too carried away with our brand new RB1 toy however, I have to caution everyone that this may not be as great as we're all hoping. RC warned us that the Penny play might be a one week thing only, and after watching this game I would say that's a fair warning.
Yes, Penny is going to get a decent crack at seizing the starting workload after this performance. Yes, he looks much better than any other option Seattle has. But...we still have a few problems.
First, Penny looked good but he didn't look that good and he was still being rotated out an awful lot. Penny took the first couple carries, then Collins got a few, then Dallas, and it was a Penny lead but Collins mixed in after that. My eyes tell me this was as much a Houston run defense problem as anything Penny was doing. Mostly he just ran straight ahead and it worked out well because he's decently strong and decently fast. Collins had some good holes too. He just doesn't have Penny's speed to take advantage of them. You'd think Carroll would commit to him after this but we can't take that for granted just yet.
The second problem is that the Seattle offensive line still isn't very good and now they have to face the 7th ranked run defense of the Rams. The Texans are dead last in run defense for the record.
And our third problem is that Collins just got put on the COVID list. But Ross, that sounds like good news! Less competition for Penny. No, and here's why. Penny already beat out Collins for the job. However, now that Collins isn't available that means that Adrian Peterson is very likely going to be elevated from the practice squad, and we can't be totally sure that Carroll won't still have his head shoved all the way up Peterson's ass. I suspect that Peterson isn't going to just stand idly by as Penny takes 25 carries this week. He's going to play and take carries. How many carries is the question.
If you made me put a number on it, I would guess that Penny is a 70-30 lead over Peterson. That's just my guess however. If the Seahawks get down early to the Rams which is very likely, then it's very possible Penny doesn't even take but 10-12 carries. In that scenario he would need a TD to be a viable play, and note that he wasn't remotely involved in the passing game so we can't count on catches to supplement his stats either.
It's a risky play this week. There is upside hope that Seattle can hang around and run the ball well to control the possessions which could lead to a big game for Penny. But we could very likely see Seattle down early and abandoning the run in which case Penny likely finishes with 40-50 yards and we're all left disappointed. This call is going to depend on the state of your rosters, your opponents' lineups, and how much risk you're willing to tolerate. There's no one magical answer as to whether you should start Penny or not. I'm sure we'll be talking with RC a lot about this in the coming days, so be sure to tune into the video Q&A's as we dive deeper into the issue.
--Davis Mills (33-49 for 331 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had himself a nice day. Is this an emerging talent or should we be skeptical of Mills against better defenses?
I'm going with skeptical for now. I didn't see anything special Mills was doing here. He just distributed the ball to wide open players most of the day and it still only led to 13 points. Mills isn't bad at all. He's plausible.
He's in the game manager category with Mac Jones. I would say Jones knows the X's and O's better, knows where to go with the ball and when, but Mills isn't as jumpy and willing to quickly ditch the ball at the first sign of an open receiver. Neither has a huge arm, but Mills is a bit stronger. Neither is mobile. I think Mac probably has a higher ceiling if he can work on his arm strength, but he should get better as a downfield passer with time. Mills looks a bit limited to me in that he doesn't get through his progressions as fast and tends to lock in on one guy a little too much. You could certainly do worse though.
I haven't decided yet if I think Houston will roll with Mills in 2022 or replace him with a rookie. It could go either way and likely will hinge on what they think of the rookie QB class. There's simply too much risk and no perceivable upside to stashing Mills in dynasty though. Spend that last roster spot on someone that has a better chance to crack through.
--Rex Burkhead sustained an injury during this game and will be out against the Jaguars. That means that Royce Freeman (11-15-0, 6-58-0/8) is going to be involved, but David Johnson's return complicates things. How much is Freeman's role worth? Hard to say.
The Houston line is very bad and there's just not much room to run. Jacksonville doesn't have an atrocious run defense but they aren't great either. The interesting thing is that Freeman got some pretty good ppr receiving work at the end of this game while Houston trailed. Will they be trailing against the Jaguars? Maybe. It'll probably be a competitive game.
If we knew Freeman was going to be the strong lead I'd say he could be in line for some decent work. In the Texans two wins this season, their lead RB averaged 22 carries per game. The second back averaged 10.5 per game. In their next most competitive game against the Patriots, Ingram logged 16 carries. Now nobody ever gets many yards on those carries because the offensive line is so bad, but it's fairly safe work nonetheless.
My guess is that Freeman is going to function as the lead power back with Johnson as the change-of-pace and 3rd down back which has been the pattern with Johnson when he's played with Burkhead and Ingram all year. If that happens and Houston can keep this competitive, then I would expect 15-20 carries for Freeman to go along with 2-3 catches. That should net him somewhere around 50-65 yards and maybe 20 yards through the air. In ppr that works out to 10-12 points and then maybe he gets lucky and falls in for a TD? Not bad.
To clarify, there's not much upside here. This offense stinks and Freeman isn't going to magically cure that. But if your RB spot has been decimated by injuries/covid and you're debating guys like Travis Homer or Corey Clement or Craig Reynolds, then maybe Freeman is an upgrade over those options. Of course this all depends on my assumption that Freeman will be the lead over Johnson being correct. I'll be discussing this option more with RC soon.
*RC NOTES: I’m not sure what HOU will do at RB this week, but my early lean would be more David Johnson than not…Culley wants to win. And Freeman isn’t great and the Jags D-Line/run D is OK and now fired up minus Urban…and I’m warming up to Craig Reynolds in garbage time.
--Nico Collins (5-69-0/10) has definitely established himself as the #2 option behind Brandin Cooks and is looking better and better every week. I'm not sure star is on the table just yet, but he's moving around so much better and more confidently than he was early in the season. He won't be a totally crazy play against the Jaguars honestly. He's a WR4 but going up against a weak secondary with a good shot at a TD this week.
--Like I mentioned last week, the future at TE for Houston is Brevin Jordan (4-26-1/7) and the future might be here already. Don't see anything special about him or this situation though. I have zero interest in him in dynasty or redraft.
IDP Notes
--Kamu Grugier-Hill was off to another good day before getting injured. His knee injury was feared to be quite bad at first, but it looks like he could be back sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID list shortly after, so he's likely out this week. Christian Kirksey is the likely beneficiary if KGH can't play. Kirksey would be a decent streaming option at LB against a Jaguars team that is likely going with a heavy James Robinson plan this week in the absence of Urban Meyer.
Snap Counts of Interest
66 = Brandin Cooks
57 = Nico Collins
46 = Chris Conley
52 = Pharaoh Brown
29 = Brevin Jordan
35 = Rashaad Penny
14 = Alex Collins
11 = DeeJay Dallas
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Bucs 33, Bills 27
There will be opportunities to correct it in the future, maybe…but with this loss, I believe the Buffalo Bills have been corrupted for good. They are the fallen angels of the NFL – what was a high-potential #1 seed/Super Bowl threat a month+ ago has now become a generic wild card chase team.
It’s not that this one loss is damaging their record type of complaint…that’s not what I mean. I mean this loss combined with the Patriots loss the prior week is a 1-2 punch of emotional devastation that I do not believe the Bills can get back up from…not just this season, like this was a grenade thrown into this current Bills team’s current and near-future. The past few weeks have derailed this current Bills iteration for good – only team mgt. won’t acknowledge it and they’ll try and hang on with the current group way too long before making wholesale changes.
Bill Belichick is such a luminary…and the Patriots have been such a gold standard of crushing the AFC East under its heel for two decades, but then Buffalo broke the streak of excellence and won the AFC East in 2020. It seemed like the Bills would be the new power for years to come. And then less than a year later, Belichick with his rookie QB went to Buffalo and out-toughed and outsmarted the Bills to win a pivotal game launching the Patriots strongly into 1st-place in the AFC East.
The follow up/next week’s game could not be worse for Buffalo…this game with Tom Brady, who was also a main reason why the Bills and the AFC East were dominated all those years. If the Bills could bounce back strong and beat Tampa…then the Bills would have shown they can shake off a bad weather game loss as a fluke and are ready to take back the AFC East over the next 4 weeks. It was an ‘everything’ you’d want to know about the soul of the Bills type moment here in Week 14.
So with that…the Bills came out flat, scared and down 24-3 at halftime…and you knew it was over…over for the game, over for the franchise being an AFC beast. But then the Bills chipped back into the game in the 2nd-half and miraculously tied it with seconds remaining – the Bills were trying to win their soul back from the brink and had sent it to OT.
The Bills won the OT coin toss and it looked like they were going to save their soul after all. Nope. Three and out, and then you knew Brady would waltz down the field to win it on his first attempt…and he did. The Bills soul was dealt another death blow.
You can see it in Sean McDermott’s face in these big games. He’s on the sidelines looking like a nervous, uncomfortable, agitated adult about to give a public speech from a podium having never done so before in their life. He looks super-nervous, to me. The past two weeks, he moves around the sidelines differently than in other games. He was visibly rattled v. Belichick Week 13, right away…and the team took on the coach’s uptightness. And then in this game the team came out flat vs. Tampa, but then rallied back (when there was not as much pressure) and McDermott starts acting strange…too fired up, too holding his breath in the big moments. I think it all rubs off on the team…he’s not their chin up, fearless leader. He’s just another nervous football nerd who makes his team nervous, and who plays the game NOT TO LOSE. In this game, the Bills were 2-for-13 on 3rd-downs…that’s a team choking…because they are better than that the past 2-3 seasons. 6-for-27 on 3rd-downs the past two weeks of pressure cooker games.
This loss was bigger than just the NFL loss in a week. I think it was the final blow to a staggering group of players. It exposed the coach who has been really solid, steady in most games…but I saw the concern with him in the playoffs last season -- he puckers up in big games, and in this NE-TB 1-2 punch of games the past two weeks, he showed it again. You can see it in his face and body language.
I respect Sean McDermott, but ‘I’m out’ on him as a great NFL head coach. He’s a fine, good, solid, better-than-most team manager -- but I don’t want him coaching my team in a huge moment, in a big game. Another idol falls.
Buffalo is now (7-6), which is an embarrassment for a team that has been mostly healthy all year. That loss to Jacksonville a while back – it was not a fluke…it was a warning, a foreshadowing. The Bills have lost four of their last 6 games. Fortunately, they have an easy schedule from here and should get to 10 wins and a wild card. And they might win a playoff game if they’re an underdog, but no way they make a title run. No Tre’Davious White…no chance. No chance if Sean McDermott is on the sidelines privately quivering in big spots and that rubbing off on his team.
Tampa Bay is one of the four best teams in the NFL, and all four of those teams are in the NFC. Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay are the kings of the NFL right now -- and Dallas might get up in there to make noise if they could get everyone healthy. The Bucs are now (10-3) and have an easy schedule, so they should sweep the rest of the way and wind up (14-3) and only Green Bay can give them a race.
I think whoever is the #1 seed between GB and TB will win the NFC due to the weather advantage for the homefields. Tampa Bay has the easiest path to that #1 seed now.
Please God, may we have a Tampa v. New England Super Bowl?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (36-54 for 308 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 12-109-1) singlehandedly got his team to overtime from a 24-3 deficit at the half. Allen is the entire offense. The concern being for Week 15, for FF…Allen hurt his toe and it may restrict him some, get him off his mechanics that are so key (for him).
I think Allen plays Week 15, but probably throttles back his running some…but he may have to throw caution to the wind as this team is drowning, but if they subdue sad Carolina quickly, he may not have to be Superman. But this Week 15 game is going to be played at a very cold Buffalo field…which makes the passing game struggle (the drops come out from them in the cold) and if Allen isn’t fully himself…yikes, for FF upside.
A bad FF-time for all this chaos to be added into the decision-making mix.
-- I like the Buffalo passing game…when the weather conditions are favorable. I am getting to worry about it when the weather is off. These receivers drop too many passes in rougher weather and Allen inadvertently throws the ball so hard that in cold and/or rain, it can be an issue for the best of receivers…not to mention the overall shaky receivers of the Bills (outside of Diggs).
This week the weather will be ‘feels like’ mid-teens with some wind. Not a good projection for the Buffalo passing game…and with Allen having a not-100% toe issue.
On paper, Gabriel Davis (5-43-1/8) is becoming a nice sleeper for the Bills passing game, for FF…especially with Emmanuel Sanders faltering and out with injury. Davis has TDs in back-to-back games. If this Week 15 game was in a dome, then Davis might be a WR2 projection with Sanders out. But in the cold, Week 15, with a shaky-handed Davis…he’s a shaky WR3 hopeful/risk.
And Buffalo might have colder weather games the rest of the way, so Davis has a somewhat pressured upside as a new starter with Sanders out.
-- The Bills could use a run game with the cold weather, but their main run attack is Josh Allen…and his now gimpy toe.
When the weather was brutal Week 13, Zach Moss emerged out of hiding taking the most touches – a bigger, plodding runner in the cold. Here in this Florida game…Moss didn’t see the field. He’ll probably be the lead for Buffalo in Week 15’s colder event…but that’s only an RB3-4 type hopeful.
The Matt Breida (3-12-0, 0-0-0/1) 15 minutes of fame in Buffalo seems to have expired.
-- Breshad Perriman (1-58-1/2) was the surprise game-winning TD throw for Brady in OT. Perriman has been a ghost most of his time in Tampa the last few weeks. I don’t think anything is building with Perriman…he just had a moment.
Antonio Brown will be back next week and take back his job.
And I don’t care what Bruce Arians says/hints/is on the fence about…if he was going to drop AB due to the vaxx card thing, he would have done it already. Tom Brady runs the team, and Brady will not allow it. AB has done a thousand times worse, and the Bucs were fine with signing him. This vaxx card thing is going to get swept under the rug – my prediction. Which means, Week 16…AB is back…an option for the FF playoff run.
-- The Bills defense got pushed around by the Bucs in this game. No Tre’Davious White is killing them…now (0-2) without White. The Bills cannot be taken seriously in the playoffs without White. They will be solid against CAR Week 15, and ATL Week 17…and maybe OK Week 16 at NE. But in the playoffs, no way they can run the table without him.
-- The Bucs-DST has an awesome finishing schedule…NO-CAR-NYJ-CAR their final 4 games of the NFL season. They are a solid DST start in each one of them.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Singletary
11 = Breida
69 = Diggs
65 = G Davis
63 = Beasley
78 = Godwin
77 = Evans
49 = Tyler J
26 = Perriman
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Titans 20, Jaguars 0
This game was a bit of a scuffle for 2.5 quarters, just 10-0 Titans leading…but it was really never in doubt. The Jaguars have no life, no offense they can muster…while the Titans have little offense as well, but they do have an emerging defense, so the Jags never got close to scoring and the Titans mustered enough offense to plod their way to a victory.
Tennessee is now (9-4) and right in the mix for the AFC #1 seed still, which is shocking because they aren’t very good without Derrick Henry but they keep getting huge schedule breaks. Huge game with PIT on the road this week. If the Titans lose to PIT, they will project to fall to an (11-6) finish and probably not a #1 seed. But if they beat PIT this week, 12 wins are very possible and a legit chance at the #1 seed.
The Jaguars are (2-11), probably headed to (2-15). In all my years of following the NFL, I’ve never seen anything like this Urban Meyer situation. He’s arguably the worst, most disconnected on-field coach I’ve ever witnessed, the worst evaluator of talent, the worst GM/personnel dealer, and he has all this off-field baggage from his bar incident, and the players and coaches and media and general public all hate him. Who is going to sign as a free agent to come play for this guy?
They should have fired him already, but the things billionaires and millionaires do and the secrets they have are things we don’t know. We see an obvious situation that should result in a quick change…but it hasn’t happened. Pure speculation/wonderings by me…but we don’t know what kind of freaky stuff Meyer and Khan are intermingled off the field, the secrets one might have with the other.
We know Urban Meyer is a pig. Patriots owner Robert Kraft was visiting $10 hookers in bad neighborhoods in Florida (and had it all swept under the rug, because he’s a billionaire and you’re not). Jerry Jones is a purported freak show off the field. We don’t know what Shad Khan is into with Urban. Sounds like a reach by me – but is it? Maybe they’re as clean as the wind driven snow…but maybe not? It’s the only thing I can reach for to understand why Khan hasn’t fired Meyer 10x over already.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Tennessee backfield report, after watching this game and really focusing in on the RB flow, here’s my general feel…
D’Onta Foreman (13-47-1, 2-15-0/2) started and was in most every snap of the first series…a long, steady TD drive…capped off by Foreman rushing it in for a TD.
Dontrell Hilliard (6-13-0, 0-0-0/2) started the second series and was in and out with Foreman most of the 1st-half.
The first half was mostly Foreman, with some Hilliard and light Jeremy McNichols (8-16-0, 0-0-0/1)…McNichols who was the team’s 3rd-down back until he got concussed and then Hilliard came in and stole it -- and this was McNichols first game back from that injury.
Foreman got dinged up in-game as the Titans seized control, so Foreman was out for a bit and Hilliard got more work and then McNichols played a lot more as the game was really subdued. And Foreman was not seen in the 4th-quarter, nor much of the 3rd-quarter.
The final snap counts:
27 = McNichols
24 = Hilliard
23 = Foreman
The final touch counts:
15 = Foreman
08 = McNichols
06 = Hilliard
My overview would be: The Titans worked behind Foreman early. When Hilliard was put in, he seemed to remember (this week) that he’s ‘Dontrell Hilliard’ and he was ineffective/awful (tackled easily, and a nothing in the pass game). McNichols kinda re-took the passing game RB role over midgame because Hilliard was so sluggish…and then they went heavy McNichols to finish it off, I think to get the rust off of him upon his return to action.
Hilliard may have lost his key role he had the weeks prior back to McNichols. Foreman was the Derrick Henry-alike and might have had 20+ carries if he didn’t get dinged up and the game being under control to allow him to just sit out.
We’ll monitor Foreman’s injury/practice week, but this looks like Foreman as the strong lead. McNichols as the passing game back. Hilliard in-between. Anyone could be the hot hand, but the real effort looks like Foreman to pound it and McNichols/Hilliard in on obvious passing downs…even though Foreman is the best receiver among them.
-- James Robinson (6-4-0) was the unquestioned lead back for Jacksonville, and still is…but as his heel is an issue, and as the coach disrespected him a couple of weeks ago, and as the team spirals down – JRob’s FF output is dying. He may be an RB2.5-3.0 the rest of the way now in this mess.
No TDs the past three games and under 30 yards rushing in three of his last 4 games.
-- You know how I feel about Trevor Lawrence (24-40 for 221 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs), which is – not buying the generational thing or even the really good thing. This game was a bad performance on paper…but he wasn’t really that awful. He’s in an impossible situation that as the game goes on, he tries to make plays downfield to spark the dying offense…and he got picked…a lot. I won’t blast TL fully…this whole team is playing dead and at least Lawrence is trying to make things happen. He just has zero help…and he’s not that talented.
-- Laquon Treadwell (4-68-0/6) is still operating as the (seemingly) best FF WR for the Jags, but that’s no better than 4-5 catches for 40-70 yards in a game, and almost no chance at a TD.
Lawrence has 1 TD pass in his last 6 games.
Which makes Ryan Tannehill’s (20-31 for 191 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) 4 TDs/6 INTs his past five games seem ‘explosive’ by comparison. Tannehill died, as a passer, without Derrick Henry.
-- Tannehill’s best receiver, right now, is Julio Jones (4-33-0/6) but it’s more of a capable ‘good hands’ option, no longer an explosive playmaking one.
Anthony Firkser (4-34-0/5) was open a lot in this game, but Firkser is a random event TE…not to be relied upon for FF.
Firkser’s yards in a game his last 8 games: 9-8-7-2-26-7-34.
-- Urban Meyer was asked something about why the young players weren’t playing more, and he commented on rookie safety Andre Cisco (1 tackle) playing more this game on defense…and then it was revealed Cisco played 0 snaps on defense this game (17 on special teams).
Again, I have never seen anything like this Urban Meyer stint in the NFL.
-- The Titans-DST is getting better and better, as they get healthier and healthier. They got the shutout here, but against the Jags it’s not a momentous feat.
The Titans-DST should be decent against PIT Week 15. They might be solid Weeks 16-17 hosting SF and MIA. There is some FF DST hope here the rest of the way. Not perfect but perking up and has potential.
One of the emerging bright spots on this defense is Kristian Fulton (4 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) is starting to become one of the top 10-15 cover corners in the league.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Westbrook-Ikhine
43 = Hollister
32 = Julio
35 = JRob
12 = Hyde
04 = Ogunbowale
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year! Hopefully…
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Falcons 29, Panthers 21
I hate both of these coaching staffs so much right now. Arthur Smith and Matt Rhule both make so many inexplicable decisions but in different areas.
I will admit Smith's offense is starting to grow on me a little. They are getting better as the year wears on, especially on the offensive line. What was once one of the worst groups in the league has now turned into a decent unit. Mostly it's just the personnel holding this team back...except for one glaring issue. For the love of all that is holy, why do the Falcons not make more of an effort to get Kyle Pitts involved in the game?
I simply don't understand it. You drafted a TE 4th overall because he's clearly a generational athlete and talent, he should be breaking the game right now, but instead you've got him running boring ass routes from 1993 and there's no effort to intentionally target him. It's mystifying. I absolutely love Pitts the player. I hate how he's being used. I do think Smith is going to make this into a good offense once they get a better QB, but I'm not sure he knows how to creatively maximize the talents of Pitts. I'm getting more and more afraid that we are in for a decent career from Pitts, the kind of career where he continually finishes in the top 3-5 TE's for fantasy, good, solid, but not transcendent like he should be.
Part of the problem is Matt Ryan just sucks now and can't hit Pitts even if he's wide open (which he's usually not through no fault of his own). Ryan keeps throwing such atrocious passes to him that Pitts has to make ridiculous adjustments just to catch the ball. Ryan has possibly one more year left in Atlanta and that's only a possibility because the Falcons are going to have poor draft position to nab a top QB.
Which brings me to my beef with Matt Rhule. His fatal flaw so far has been his choice of QB's. He dumped Cam for Bridgewater, then Bridgewater for Darnold, then Darnold got hurt so he brought Cam back, and he's got Walker backing all of them up. Rhule deserves to be fired simply for his gross mismanagement of this one thing.
After this carousel of ineptitude, Carolina really only has one course of action this off-season...they have to land an elite QB through a trade. The most likely candidate, and probably their only hope, is Deshaun Watson. Get him and your problems (short-term ones anyway) are over (assuming he's cleared of all criminal charges). Don't get him and you're facing a PR nightmare heading into another season with garbage at the helm. The seat is already getting quite hot for Mr. Rhule. I would recommend he not let his wife choose any more of their draft picks and stop bringing in guys he coached in college just because he knows them. That recipe never works out well for college guys.
The Panthers’ defense has been on a skid the last three weeks against some less than stellar offenses. What happened to that nasty, aggressive defense from early in the season? Not much honestly. They are still pretty good. The issue is that the offense is doing them no favors constantly turning the ball over. Regardless of their problems though, there's no way you can start them the rest of the year, not against this schedule. The Bucs twice, the Bills, and the Saints. Not a recipe for success. Steer clear.
The Falcons defense you could think about using against the Lions in a pinch, but I can't recommend them anywhere else. They aren't terrible, but you should be able to find better streaming options.
Fantasy Notes
--So what's going on with Cam Newton (15-23 for 178 yards 0 TD/1 INT, 10-47-1) and PJ Walker (6-12 for 75 yards 1 TD/1 INT)? Newton started the game and got pulled at one point because of an injury. But after a few more mistakes he was pulled for real and Walker was inserted at QB. Then for some reason Cam rotated back in for a few snaps, then was out again, and finally came back in to finish the game off after it was clear Walker was failing hard.
Honestly, Cam didn't play all that badly. He did throw a pick 6 after a LB dropped into coverage from a weird spot and lost a fumble trying to hand the ball off after slipping, but for the most part it wasn't terrible. Walker was terrible and won't be starting, that I'm sure of. Cam will start until Darnold is healthy.
If the Panthers were playing some weak teams I'd say fire Cam up in 4-pt leagues, but he's playing the Bills and Bucs and Saints...not defenses you want to mess with. I think this is going to be a bloodbath coming up for Carolina. Do not be afraid of this offense. They are very mistake prone right now. The Bills, wounded though they are, are going to kill them and the Bucs might join the party too now that they are getting healthy again. In fact, Tampa is a great stash for your week 16 championship matchups and most people won't be on them because they still remember the Bucs getting beaten up on early in the season.
--I've discussed Kyle Pitts (5-61-0/6) so much this year and I'm sick of saying the same thing every week. Nothing is changing here. You're getting 5-7 targets for 4 or 5 catches and about 50 yards every week. No touchdowns to speak of because Ryan doesn't throw many and all the scores go to Patterson anyways. Pitts is just another TE2 right now. He's not even in the TE1 discussion because he can't score. There. You're welcome. I just jinxed myself and he'll go 7-81-2/9 next week just because I said he's nothing. I'll even bench him on my own team just to guarantee it...
--Qadree Ollison (5-23-0) was strangely in the game late icing the clock with Mike Davis. Patterson wasn't seen the entire 4th quarter. I'm not sure what that was about since there doesn't seem to be any injury for Patterson. I guess Arthur Smith just wanted to give Patterson a rest and knew he could salt it away with the other two?
Whatever the reason, Ollison took some important late carries to run the clock out and looked the same he's looked whenever he's gotten the chance. He's a solid, straight ahead power runner. Think D'Onta Foreman, a very poor man's Derrick Henry, the generic brand Henry. I don't really see a future for Ollison, not as a starter. Maybe he takes some backup carries if the team moves on from Davis, but they'll draft another RB to take over for Patterson when he's done. Ollison is ok, but he's never going to be the starter here or anywhere else. Don't waste your time in dynasty.
--Robby Anderson (7-84-1/12) finally had a good game. He won't get another. A good chunk of his work here came with the Panthers trailing late and the Falcons playing soft defense. It also came with Walker at QB for obvious reasons (they played together for Rhule at Temple). Once Cam is back at QB Robby won't matter again.
--Brandon Zylstra (4-45-0/5) is rotating in over Terrace Marshall for the WR3 spot and looks like the better option. It's damning for Marshall that he couldn't take this job with everything going for him including his college coach at offensive coordinator. Joe Brady is gone now, so Marshall doesn't even have that going for him in 2022. Things are not looking up for him.
IDP Notes
--Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles) has been on fire lately. One of the best young safeties in the game along with Kyle Duggar. His numbers could be down a little against the Bills this week because they rarely run, but he's an auto-start against the Bucs and Saints.
Snap Counts of Interest
38 = Ameer Abdullah
25 = Chuba Hubbard
62 = Robby Anderson
57 = DJ Moore
36 = Brandon Zylstra
30 = Terrace Marshall
35 = Ian Thomas
34 = Tommy Tremble
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chiefs 48, Raiders 9
This game was 35-0 right before the half, but then Vegas kicked a crucial field goal to cut it to 35-3 at the half. This was never a game. Five turnovers, 4 lost fumbles…the Raiders watched their season slide right down the drain, and any chance the interim head coach had of keeping this job for the future…flushed down the toilet.
The Chiefs are (9-4) and leading the AFC West by a game…over the Chargers, who they play in a huge matchup on TNF this week. Win…and a #1 seed is still possible. Lose…and they are in a dogfight to the finish with LAC for the AFC West title. Win Week 15 and they likely finish (12-5) and a possible shot at a #1 seed over New England or Tennessee. Lose Week 15, and they could wind up (11-6) and possibly a high seed wild card. With their experience, you have to assume they win Week 15 and go on to win the AFC West…but it’s not a given.
The Raiders lose and plummet to (6-7) and last place in the AFC West, but still alive in the wild card. Alive but pretty much dead. Losers of five of their last 6 games and they may lose out to finish (6-11), (7-10) at best and a re-rebuild goes underway in 2022.
There’s not much to take away from this game study – it was over so fast, and players were pulled by KC as they coasted to victory.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Jacobs (9-24-0, 5-46-0/6) fumbled on the first play of this game, and KC scooped and score…setting the tone for this nightmare.
All the Raiders have left is Jacobs at RB, and now Derek Carr is throwing to him a bunch…so he’s a legit option in PPR week-to-week (5.0 rec. per game his last 6 games), as the Raiders slide down a hole and don’t have any other weapons they want to use.
I mention Jacobs here, because he is falling out of favor fast in Las Vegas. 2022 may be his final season there. Jon Gruden desperately, expensively signing Kenyan Drake might have been one of the first signs of concern. Jacobs is losing FF momentum in the public square, and a new head coach might be a problem for him, to a fresh start. He might even be traded this offseason, if they can find a taker.
He went to Alabama, so there will be a taker…but it might be to put him in a split role, not a feature.
-- Mediocre FF-games for the KC-Three (Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce), but you can blame the game flow getting out of hand for the lack of a need to press numbers.
Patrick Mahomes (20-24 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) only threw the ball 24 times…the lowest pass attempts ever for him, in a game where he played 90%+ of the snaps. He might have had 400+ yards and 4+ TDs if this was a game, but it wasn’t. Don’t blame him…you just have to ride him if he’s your obvious guy.
Tyreek Hill (4-76-0/4) went along with Mahomes. Tyreek came up gimpy on his last catch and he spent the 4th-quarter mostly out of the game…in this low target/pass attempt affair.
Travis Kelce (3-27-0/4) has the same excuse, but he’s starting to worry me. 1 TD in his last 8 games. Under 10 targets in a game in five of his last 6 games. Suddenly, he’s not getting treated like a star like the past few years. Week 15 v. LAC is a good matchup to rise back, but if he doesn’t…are we nearing an end to the Kelce run? He is 32 years old. He should still have another year or two, but he’s not looking as spry as prior years. All will be forgiven with a big week on TNF this week. Like Mahomes or Tyreek…you just gotta ride it out and do-or-die with these aces.
-- Zay Jones (5-25-0/7) has 7-5-7 for targets in games the past three weeks, as he’s becoming Derek Carr’s favorite WR with Darren Waller out. Still…not a heavy dose of action and still low yardage and no TDs. It’s not a great opportunity, but it’s up off the ground a bit at least.
Darren Waller is not likely to play Week 15, and Foster Moreau is now hurt as well. Zay might get an 8-10 target game Week 15, perhaps…but probably for 40-50 yards and no TDs.
-- Josh Gordon (2-9-1/3) scored a TD…alert the media…he’s back…he’s a star again.
Nope.
He just got a gimme, cheap short TD toss…and little else, as usual. Nothing developing here.
-- Keep an eye on Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1 sack).
Week 13 = 7 snaps, 1 sack
Week 14 = 15 snaps, 1 sack
A great rookie pass rush prospect getting his first two games of work in 2021…and he should get more opportunity each week. Maxx Crosby has 3.0 sacks in his last 12 games. Koonce has 2.0 sacks in 22 snaps played in 2021.
-- Rookie SAF Divine Deablo (10 tackles) is playing more with the Raiders injuries at linebacker. He started this week and produced nicely…now, back-to-back weeks with heavier snap counts and 10+ tackle counts each game. He probably fades back some when Denzel Perryman is back.
-- The Chiefs defense is on fire…six games in-a-row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points, and in seven of their last 8 games. It hasn’t been a murderer’s row of offenses/QBs, but it’s happening. Week 15 may be a rude awakening vs. Justin Herbert.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Tyreek
40 = Pringle
30 = D Robinson
24 = Gordon
23 = Hardman
23 = D Williams
23 = CEH
20 = Gore
62 = Moreau
01 = Daniel Helm
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 21
24-7 LAC at halftime.
37-7 LAC with 4+ minutes remaining.
But then some garbage, a botched onside kick recovery…and suddenly it’s 37-21 with 1+ minute left and NYG driving. LAC buckled down and shut NYG down and got out of there with a 16-point win that was more like a 50+ point win turned into a 16-point affair via end of game malaise. It was never really close. NYG is a defeated group – still trying on defense but no offense at all.
The Chargers are now (8-5), and they are still only going as far as Justin Herbert takes them, because otherwise this team has a ton of holes. I’d love to see them solidify/gel and beatdown KC Week 15, but we’ll see. KC has the experience…but a ton of holes themselves. The Chargers are pretty locked for 9 wins, more likely 10 wins by season end, with a shot at winning out for 11-12 wins and an AFC West title. We project 10 wins because they’ve been sloppier than KC this season. LAC is headed to the playoffs either way.
The Giants (4-9) are not headed to the playoffs and are now entering a phase where they will be subject to incessant rumors on a coaching and GM change. I’ve mentioned it a few times – they should stick with this management team at least one more season. Injury and bad luck have doomed them as much as anything. They have a good core…they just need a real QB. NYG will finish with 5-6 wins and who knows what coach in 2022.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big question from this game for Week 15 is – is Austin Ekeler (12-67-1, 2-170/4) going to play, and if not…who is taking his touches?
My guess, right at this moment, is that Ekeler will play and be fine. Brandon Staley has said Ekeler could have gone back in Week 14 if needed. I buy that…this game was so far out of hand it was easy to pull Ekeler off the field and keep him safe in the 2nd-half.
If Ekeler is a scratch for TNF Week 15, it seems clear to me that Justin Jackson (9-35-0, 1-7-0/1) is the guy they would trust in the Ekeler role, and he’d take a 70/30 or better share splitting with Joshua Kelley (10-33-0, 1-5-0/1).
When this was still a game, JJax was in taking relief/split touches with Ekeler. Kelley didn’t really get his work in until later when this was getting out of hand.
Jackson could be an RB1-2 projection for Week 15 with Ekeler out of the way. I just don’t believe it will happen that Ekeler is out.
-- No Keenan Allen (DNP-COVID) gave us a good dose of/preview of Josh Palmer (5-66-1/7)…and we now see he belongs. He’s like if you took Keenan and Mike Williams and mashed them together – good-to-great hands and physical, nit s blazer/speedster and just normal height for a WR.
Palmer was a debated prospect going into the 2021 NFL Draft – was he athletic enough to matter in the bigs? He’s not speedy, but he’s a good football playing WR. He may allow LAC to just let Williams go in free agency 2022.
Speaking of Big Mike (6-61-0/6)…once again the best-looking (eye appeal) WR on the field in this game/in the NFL…and just a ho hum FF result. Big Mike is becoming the Kyle Pitts of WRs. He gets all the defensive attention, so Herbert just smokes the defense with all his other options – which is great for the NFL, sucks for Big Mike for FF.
Jaylen Guyton (3-87-1/3) has back-to-back weeks with a TD. My knee-jerk reaction is…he’s not very good, so I’m looking past him -- but my reaction now should be/will be…it’s good to be the #3 WR working with Justin Herbert. Anyone on the field with Herbert has FF hope. Guyton might be becoming Marquez Valdes-Scantling west coast edition.
-- Justin Herbert (23-31 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is starting to play lights out again…playing like 2020 where despite all the other issues (lack of blocking, unimaginative play calling, a weak run game) Herbert just out-talents the obstacles and gives the team a chance to win. He was so low-key great here.
Herbert is now #3 in FF PPG and #2 in total yardage among QBs, less than a hundred behind Tom Brady.
My mind says KC beats LAC on TNF this week, but Herbert there makes me think they got a chance to take the mantle of best team in the AFC West…and best QB in the AFC away from KC Week 15.
-- And then there was Mike Glennon (17-36 for 191 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…the anti-Herbert…
Actually, he’s not playing terribly…it’s just this offense, this team is so miserable, and the receivers drop so many passes. I’ll just note, for time sake, that every receiver related to Glennon is not worth your time in FF.
Sterling Shepard (2-27-0/4) is only a thing with Dan Dimes.
Kadarius Toney (DNP) could be something, but I’d guess this offense, this whole team vibe is going to put a lid on anything Toney could do…if he ever returns to action.
-- I’ve been bragging about the LAC-DST and this finishing schedule (Week 14, and 16-17). Well, we almost got a gem here…only 7 points allowed with 4 minutes left…then a bunch of bullshit happened/they laid down just trying to get out of there.
The Chargers are an average defense…it’s just playing against garbage offenses puts them on the DST map. Week 16-17 v. HOU-DEN should…SHOULD…be good but you’ll hold your breath. Having lost Derwin James (COVID) right before this game did not help matters here. He’ll be back for TNF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Ekeler
20 = JJax
19 = Kelley
62 = Palmer
59 = Mike Williams
42 = Guyton
33 = McKitty
31 = Cook
29 = Parham
38 = Barkley
28 = Booker
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Packers 45, Bears 30
The Bears got off to a hot start here and with the help of a few fluky plays and some heroics from Jakeem Grant, they somehow managed to lead this game for quite some time. Of course, it was not meant to be. Chicago simply can't hang with the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers just methodically carved them up until the ending was no longer in doubt.
The Packers are up to 10-3 with the North all but theirs already. They currently have the #2 seed, but they might be able to get to the #1 seed if Arizona stumbles against a much more difficult schedule than what Green Bay has to face. I think the Packers will ultimately wind up with the top seed, and that is going to really change the nature of the NFC playoffs because teams would much rather go play in Arizona's dome than deal with the cold if Wisconsin.
This is a really good team and they are just getting better by the week. I wasn't a fan early on but I see it now.
The only thing holding them back is health. Jaire Alexander sounds like he'll be available this week or next week at the absolute latest. When he's back GB is in the conversation with Arizona for best defense in the league. Stokes and Douglas have been fantastic but Alexander takes them to another level. There were a few crazy broken plays in coverage last night, but I'm not concerned about it. Sometimes things happen.
David Bakhtiari probably needs more time. He practiced once at the end of November but his knee acted up on him again. He's still a few weeks away at best but it's possible he'll be ready for the playoffs.
A possible larger issue developing is Aaron Rodgers and his toe he fractured in November. Apparently he aggravated the injury during this win and it's causing him a great deal of pain. He looked into surgery when it first happened and decided against it, but now that might be back on the table. If he does have a procedure done it would likely be to immobilize the toe. You can imagine how that might make life difficult for him in the pocket. Mahomes dealt with something similar last year in the playoffs, and we saw how that turned out for him.
It's still very early and we don't have much information yet, but my best guess is Rodgers attempts to play through this and is somewhat affected by it, again much like Mahomes was last year. Getting Bakhtiari back would greatly help as far as protecting Rodgers so he doesn't have to move as much. If those three players can all play then this might be the best team top to bottom in the entire league. They are close to being the best even without two of them.
The poor Bears fall to 4-9 and don't have a lot going for them. Chicago fans are probably feeling ok right now thinking they just gave the Packers a run for their money, but honestly it was pretty fluky that the Bears were even in the game and the Packers still stomped on the gas pedal and ran them over. They might get lucky and win another game or two, but all that does is drop their draft position down even farther.
I can't see how Matt Nagy survives this. There have simply been too many problems, too many issues exacerbated by him that have dropped this team into a death spiral. Drafting Justin Fields was a last ditch effort to provide a spark, and you see how that turned out. The media won't catch on for 4-5 more years as Fields goes the way of Darnold, but you and I know he's not a franchise QB. Never was, never will be. But now the Bears are saddled with him for at least another few years. It's not going to be pretty.
Fantasy Notes
--First things first...did I not warn you about Jakeem Grant two weeks ago? Now I'll admit I didn't see this type of breakout coming but only because I thought the Bears would never up his snap counts significantly and actually get him the ball. Credit to them, they saw what I saw and it kept them in this game for a bit.
Grant isn't a superstar player. But he is a very fast, solid, useful guy to get touches to. It's amazing to me that coaches still don't understand the very simple strategy of getting the ball directly to their most explosive players and letting them try to make something happen.
Every middle school kid knows that's how you play. Who's our fastest guy? You? Ok, let's give him the ball every single play and it doesn't matter if the other team knows it or not, they aren't fast enough to stop him forever. Instead, these genius coaches would rather draw up some complex gobbledygook play with 37 words in it for his players to try and memorize and then throw a curl route to some slow ass 275 lb TE. Nothing makes them happier than that.
Back to Grant. He's a good player. Definitely should be on the field taking screen passes, reverses, a couple handoffs, returning punts..etc. Just get the ball in his hands and sometimes magic happens like it did here. Honestly, they still aren't going to him often enough, but hey it's a start. Still don't think he's usable for fantasy yet, but now that they've seen what he can do...we'll have to see.
--RC's big call from this game was for the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-20-0/5) and that didn't work out so well, but note MVS just missed out on two possible TD's here. One was a tough catch that went off his hands and another just out of his reach. The opportunities were there. I think perhaps we were a little overzealous with him, but he is very close to popping a bit. I'd treat him as a WR3 for the time being.
--Part of what's holding MVS back a little is the re-emergence of Allen Lazard (6-75-1/7). This is the first time in a while that I've seen Rodgers actually trying to work Lazard as something other than a random option. I don't think Rodgers will throw for 341 yards most weeks, so I wouldn't count on the heavy yardage totals for Lazard, but he might be getting a few more scoring options his way with Cobb out. Maybe it pushes Lazard to a low end WR2? He's definitely in play again.
--Another big change with the GB offense that's helping...AJ Dillon (15-71-0) is the new main carry back and Aaron Jones (5-35-1, 3-30-1/3) is being used as a change of pace/3rd down back. It's a fantastic plan for the team, but it's going to be somewhat frustrating for fantasy owners.
Jones “started” the game as usual, but Dillon was quickly in and taking the bulk of the work. He's their grinder, their bully they use to help wear down the defense. Think Derrick Henry's early years before he became the entire offense. Unfortunately for Dillon, while he's now getting good carry counts, Jones is still getting most of the red zone opportunities, at least for now.
I think you can consider Dillon a RB2 now. He didn't have any catches here, but he's usually involved in the passing game a little and he should also get more short TD's soon. If you have Jones I'd be worried. The TD's propped him up here but those won't always be available. My best guess is he's still probably a low RB2 but I wouldn't swear to it.
--I've bashed Justin Fields (18-33 for 224 yards 2 TD/2 INT, 9-74-0) a lot this year and for good reason. He's not a good QB. The numbers look ok here considering the caliber of defense he was playing against, but about 100 of his yards came from Grant and Byrd blowing through the defense by themselves for long TD's.
Long term I don't see much hope for him. He's skittish and inaccurate. Short term he works pretty well for fantasy now that he's running more. I'm still never blown away by his runs though the way I am with Lance or Hurts or Taysom. You'd think a 225 lb guy with 4.4 speed would be more explosive than he is. I'd consider him a QB 1.5 for now.
*RC NOTE: I thought this was one of Fields’s better games…showing some hope of being a Jalen Hurts type QB…a more willing runner of late (partially because he struggles as a passer). Being a Hurts-type QB is sweet for FF…not so great for NFL purposes.
Lamar, Hurts, Fields, Cam, Taysom…the football world's future is not going to the ‘running QB’. It’s a myth…it’s actually a problem (for the teams getting suckered into it). It looks sexy. The media loves it. But the reality is…old Tom Brady and broken toe Aaron Rodgers are exponentially more NFL-valuable/more ‘winning’...but less ‘cool’. The cool kids like the runner-QBs because they also like cartoon depictions of the players who just a scored a TD to pop up on their TV screen, because nothing equals ratings like fans you have to drag/sucker into the product.
Why can’t football go…”Look, we’re football. We’re the greatest episodic TV show on the planet. We’re everywhere all week if you wanna watch. We get millions of viewers because people play Fantasy and gamble on it. We don’t need to try and get 0.1 more ratings by acting like goofs and spending time/money to bait the uninterested in watching with cartoons, contests, and televised games on Nickelodeon. We’re football. If you wanna watch the Masked Singer…God help you, be my guest. We’ll be over here with a Jacksonville game on a Thursday Night that will beat any TV show you got all week, so no more song and dance routines to get you interested, and insulting our vast existing customer base.”
IDP Notes
--De'Vondre Campbell (16 tackles) is so so so good. By now anyone that reads my reports knows I've been a fan of his for several years now. I don't care what PFF had to say about him in the past. They claim he was a journeyman, average LB and only suddenly this year morphed into one of the league's best. That's obvious nonsense. Campbell has been playing at an extremely high level going back to his time with the Cardinals and Falcons. There was no reason he should have been available to sign so cheaply this off-season.
GB is the winners for it. Campbell is playing DPOY caliber football. He might get a little consideration for it but I doubt he wins no matter how deserving. It's a shame. Hopefully the Packers up his pay next year. The man deserves it and more. He has become the heart and soul of this defense in one year. It's truly incredible.
*RC NOTE: The same PFF who dismissed Rasul Douglas, too.
Snap Counts of Interest
58 = Davante Adams
53 = Allen Lazard
43 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling
35 = AJ Dillon
29 = Aaron Jones
57 = Darnell Mooney
48 = Allen Robinson
36 = Damiere Byrd
29 = Jakeem Grant
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Cowboys 27, Football Team 20
24-0 Dallas at the half. And as we are learning in the NFL the last 2-14 weeks…no huge lead is ever safe. Teams take a big halftime lead and start to go into a shell in the 2nd-half, while the down team starts playing with reckless abandon. The ahead team plays not to lose…and then they almost do lose.
Washington had this 24-point lead down to 27-20 with 3+ minutes left, and with the ball -- but as they drove down for a game tie/win/loss…they threw a pick…and ‘ballgame’. It really shouldn’t have been that close; Dallas was the superior team. It was fluky that the WTF’s got back in it, one part Dallas being sloppy, one part fluke. Washington is no serious threat to Dallas.
The Cowboys are now (9-4) and in total control of the NFC East. I’d argue, at full strength, they are possibly the best team in the NFC…but they can never get to full strength (now Tyron Smith is going to miss Week 15). Maybe by the playoffs they can get healthy – their big lead in the East allows them to maybe coast a little, throttle back a little and heal up some players. Dallas should finish with 12 wins and a long shot hope for a #1 seed…but more likely they are a #3-4 seed in a loaded NFC.
Washington is (6-7) and doesn’t belong in the playoffs…but they still have life. All I care is they get to 8 wins to ‘push’ my ‘over’ 8.0 wins preseason bet on them. We project that’s where they end – 8 wins, and out of the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Three Dallas players don’t look totally ‘right’ to me. They are…
The first of three is Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)
4 TDs/5 INTs the past 4 games. 6 TDs/6 INTs the last 5 games. Under 240 yards passing in four of his last 6 games. And the slide is happening against weaker pass defenses.
Part of the issue is some of that time he missed Tyron Smith in some games during that stretch, but only a few. Part of the issue, from what I am seeing…Dak just looks a tad jittery/jumpy/not himself passing, to my eyes. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s keeping to himself…or if it is residual from last year’s injury...or I don’t know what it is, but it hasn’t been great…and we know Dak is pretty good/great.
Something is up and it is dragging down some players around him, for FF.
-- The second of the three is the worst-looking one… Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6)
One catch off 6 targets this game. Unbelievable.
Another sub-4.0 ypc game…five games in a row. Zeke’s last 7 games ypc per game…
Week 8 = 3.1
Week 9 = 5.1
Week 10 = 2.9
Week 11 = 3.6
Week 12 = 2.8
Week 13 = 3.5
Week 14 = 3.8
Zeke has a sprained PCL, and that is like a weight on your back trying to play with it…reduced speed, reduced agility…beyond the pain/discomfort. Everyone can see it. He needs time off. He probably won’t get it. Given the 3-game lead now and facing NYG this week…MAYBE they really throttle him back and let his knee have an extra week to heal. Why they keep pushing him all week, I have no idea. Once healed, he’ll be fine.
Tony Pollard has a torn plantar fasciitis, and he may need another week or two…or go on IR. If so, Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-2-0/2) is the ‘next man up’…and that may matter vs. NYG. He may see 10+ touches Week 15…maybe.
Clement has been a long-time grinder backup for the Eagles, then released by the new regime, and picked up by Dallas and he’s been rostered all season. He’s a low-end athlete, but experienced, tough/a grinder.
-- The third letdown of the Dallas triumvirate is Amari Cooper (5-51-1/7). He’s not playing poorly…he just looks like the least dangerous of the Dallas trio of WRs anymore. No longer ‘wow’ or ‘elite’ or ‘the man’.
CeeDee Lamb (7-61-0/10) is the Dak go-to anymore, but Gallup looks way better/quicker/more effective than any of them.
Since Michael Gallup (5-60-0/9) has returned to playing 90%+ of the snaps (Week 11), look at the target distribution between Amari and Gallup since then…
5.0 rec. (9.3 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Gallup (last 4 weeks)
3.3 rec. (4.5 targets), 45.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Amari (last 4 weeks)
Gallup has caught 5 passes in a game for four straight games. Amari has caught 5 or more passes in a game 4 times this season (in 11 games).
The new pecking order for the Dallas passing game…
Lamb
Gallup
Cooper
-- Not Dalton Schultz (1-4-0/3) in the pecking order…he is dead to me. I didn’t believe Gallup would be heavily involved upon his return, as he’s been a ghost with the trio back to 2020 – but I was wrong, way wrong. Schultz has died since Gallup returned…something I also did not believe would happen.
-- Antonio Gibson (10-36-0, 2-5-0/2) was crushed by the revamped/healthy Dallas D-Line, and then fumbled…which has been an issue. He got benched again. But when this game got back to being a game…he was back in. Blame this one on the Dallas D.
-- With a week to get ready to deploy all necessary assets, Curtis Samuel (0-0-0/2) saw no catches and no carries. Message received. I’m done with him for 2021, and we’ll have to reevaluate him for 2022 in this weak offense.
Terry McLaurin (0-0-0/4) was busy putting up another dud then was out due to a concussion…and still not any extra Samuel to try and push their (supposed) best offensive weapons.
-- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/4) and John Bates (1-19-0/2) were nobodies here -- but blame Dallas some…WSH needed extra blocking from the TEs.
Week 15, they face the TE utopia of the Eagles defense. RSJ might matter Week 15…maybe.
-- The Dallas-DST is smoking hot right now. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Dallas could be an overall monster (as a team) when they get all their D-Lineman back healthy. Well, Week 14 was really the first time the main guys played together…
Randy Gregory (1 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QB hits)
Neville Gallimore (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB hit)
DeMarcus Lawrence (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Micah Parsons (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits)
9 QB hits for Dallas D…5.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick.
Guess what’s gonna happen when they face the Giants Week 15?
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Bates
31 = RSJ
42 = Humphries
40 = D Carter
40 = Sims
33 = McLaurin
23 = Dyami
14 = CSam
75 = Amari
70 = Gallup
57 = CeeDee
54 = Elliott
31= Clement
02 = J Hardy
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.