-- Kareem Hunt leaving the Saints visit to go take a meeting with the Colts…I imagine things transpired this way:
1) The Saints pitched Hunt on coming in to be the guy while Kamara is out…and Hunt would hear them out, but it couldn’t have been a big offer AND after three weeks into the season Hunt would have to assume he’d be a nobody in the Kamara-Jamaal-Kendre mix. It would be the worst place to sign for him for opportunity BUT if the Saints overspent…then maybe?
2) But then the Colts realize there is a ‘real’ problem with this Jonathan Taylor stuff…a problem that doesn’t look like it’s getting fixed, relationally…and the decision is made to ‘move on (from JT)’ or ‘get ready for real trouble’ ahead with him then next months/year.
OR
This Taylor ankle issue is worse than they think and they’re going to need to prep a Plan B.
Indy…looking out over the horizon…Elliott and Fournette are not coveted by Indy. Dalvin Cook likely wants too much nor wants to play for Indy/a perceived rebuild…nor does Cook want to swoop in on Taylor’s situation or eventually compete with him. And Hunt is potentially better (on-field) than all those free agent RBs mentioned for half the price or so. The Colts need an alternative with the Taylor situation crumbling. So they hurriedly call Hunt to invite him out…and that urgency/desire is what Hunt was waiting for, so he is going to hear them out.
3) The Colts signed Kenyan Drake a few days ago for that same reasoning as now looking into Hunt, but Drake alone is not enough if the Taylor situation got/gets more dire.
Drake + Hunt duo = Taylor, or close enough, in the Colts’ mind…and thus the reason why RB value in general is in decline.
If the Colts seriously offer/sign Kareem Hunt…it means Taylor is either more hurt than he’s let on AND/OR he is all but gone from Indy after insulting the owner, by the Colts’ own decision. The Drake signing made me wonder…but a Hunt signing seals the deal that Taylor is done in Indy, one way or the other.
-- I have been hoping D’Ernest Johnson could breakthrough the #2 RB noise and show he’s the best man for the #2 job, but I have heard nothing about him (good or bad…which is bad) in any camps and he is listed as the 4th RB on the preseason unofficial depth chart. Sad.
The dream of D’Ernest getting a serious shot in the league looks about dead. He needs to have some moments in the preseason games AND/OR get cut and picked up by a team in need. Imagine if he were still an unsigned free agent with all this Jon Taylor stuff going on -- he would’ve been signed by Indy instead of Drake, to begin with.
I still cannot get my mind to believe that Tank Bigsby is better than D’Ernest Johnson, but I’m sure when the coaches and media see Bigsby running ‘so tough’ in non-contact drills with a ‘My Pillow’ helmet on…they swoon to the magical rookie possibilities. It’s a joke…it’s so obvious you can’t determine much on RBs in these practices, per se -- but the NFL and its media goes all in on it. And the all-non-contact practices are a relatively new thing, so it may not be figured out for years to come.
Example: I used to go to the Senior Bowl week of events and it was four days of practices during the week and then the game Saturday. Monday was a light, non-padded practice getting used to everything. Tuesday started some contact. Wed.-Thu. was full contact.
Now, today, the Senior Bowl is three shortened practices in the week…all non-contact. Which is smart, but it kinda went from the contact way for decades to suddenly no contact more recently. But observers still take the non-contact things they see as ‘reality’…they really do, even if they state ‘Well…it’s just practice, but…’ upfront before they add ‘…X-player looks fantastic and is a sleeper star!’ How anyone can judge an RB’s capabilities running the ball in non-contact 11-on-11 is beyond me…it’s impossible, but that’s all the camp discussion we’re getting right now. Big, sweeping judgements are made by coaches and analysts based on this un-reality.
There’s still time for D’Ernest, and many others, to make his move…if he gets a real chance in the preseason games.
-- WR’s in non-contact, you can get a better feel for than RBs, but it’s still dicey…
Deonte Harty has been coming on in practices of late (non-contact practice is perfect for him to show off his skills, as another example…small and speedy looks cool in drills). And with the Bills first unofficial depth chart released, Harty is listed as a co-starter in the slot with Khalil Shakir. Both are good, and that’s gonna mean they rotate/neutralize each other for FF purposes. It happened to Isaiah McKenzie that was the last two years.
…so too will Buffalo shifting to more two TE sets on offense hurt the Harty/Shakir split.
I love Harty and Shakir, as talents…but their FF-situations are in trouble of being erratic (in results) with Buffalo’s roster -- which is a growing thing in the NFL/FF, the congested amount of talent at the skill positions, hurting many FF player’s output projections. Knowing the talent is one thing…having a clear runway to the main touches for yourself is another huge thing in playing/picking Fantasy players…and the flows will always be shifting in-season for various reasons given so much talent to utilize. It’s going to get harder to play FF, in general, and that should favor the FFM mindset in the long run…if we have our finger on the weekly pulse better.
But it also means you and I cannot tame this FF-beast at will…no matter how smart we are. We just have to keep grinding and stay one step ahead of the competition as the various stages of the season unfolds. ‘The draft’ is just one part of a very long FF-race. The draft is somewhat obsolete by Weeks 2-3-4. If you aren’t leading your league in transactions and rejected trade offers -- you’re at risk. And it’s not change for the sake of change…we do it with a purpose, to try and be one step ahead of everyone else.
-- Gus Edwards is listed as the Ravens #1 RB over J.K. Dobbins…that’s just ‘punitive’ for the ‘hold out or hold in’ or whatever these RBs are trying to do that’s gonna kill the market on all of them soon. They’ll placate JKD in some way and he’ll be installed back as the starter/lead back in the Dobbins-Edwards duo.
BUT if Dobbins holds out until the end of camp…to avoid camp…then Edwards will have a huge ‘comfort’ advantage on Dobbins in this ‘new offense’…and the first 1-2-3 games could be more of a pure split and then Dobbins is less valuable for the slow start he’ll cause you (if you own him). I’m starting to take his FF 2023 value down on that concern.
-- Rashod Bateman is listed as a starter with Odell as the #1-2 WRs with Zay Flowers behind OBJ and Agholor/Duvernay behind Bateman. If that is all true, but Bateman isn’t ready for Week 1 (and goes on PUP)…then Flowers still isn’t going to ‘start’, per this depth chart…and I could see Agholor getting the Week 1 veteran nod to be the #2 WR.
It’s something to watch how it changes (or not) in the preseason, but I have a feeling Flowers is gonna force his way into the lineup quickly, potentially by Week 1, because he’s too good not to be starting…and that will show in the preseason games.
-- The Panthers 1st-team WR group…Thielen-Chark…and the rookie Jonathan Mingo. A mild surprise to be named starter so soon.
Terrace Marshall is behind Chark and Laviska Shenault is behind Mingo.
Any Marshall ‘sleeper’ hopes are getting squelched by the new regime…which the first clue on that was the new regime walking on and adding the three guys listed as starters now.
