2022 FFM Analyst’s NFL Over-Under Win Total Top Three Bets: Ross Jacobs
Intro: Our analysts have run their computer simulated seasons and have had a chance to look at each other’s results to now select their top three best over-under win total bets in June for the upcoming 2022 NFL Season.
As always, each analyst has a fictitious $1,000 to wager on their three bets -- and they are using May 2022 end over-under lines and odds from FanDuel.
This week, we will reveal each analyst’s bets and their report-out on why they bet what they did. Next week, our internal chat series will follow – where the analysts talk about and pick apart each other’s over-under bets and early 2022 NFL season records/projections.
Ross Jacobs’s top three over/under win total bets in June 2022:
1) OVER: Indianapolis over 9.5 wins (-160)...Bet: 400
I won our O/U competition last year by the skin of my teeth in the last week of the season, and that experience has me rethinking my strategy for this year. I would rather take a smaller payout and get better odds than try for a decent payoff that I need more luck to get me an extra half win over the line. Previously I tried to place my bets on what I thought were the highest value plays and that worked out ok enough. I did hit 2 of my 3 bets, but I realized that there's enough randomness in these projections due to injuries and dumb luck that it's unlikely any of us are going to hit all 3 bets trying to find a few extra percentage points here and there. So my strategy this year is to find the bets I'm most sure will hit regardless of payout. I'm betting that I can hit all three of my bets and that will make up for having worse odds than RC or Xavier. They might make bigger returns when they do hit but I'm going to try for consistency this year and see how well that goes.
So after that long introduction to my thinking, my favorite bet of the year has to be the Indianapolis over. Last year the Colts got off to a slow start due to Carson Wentz's injured foot and tough schedule the first three weeks. After they settled into their identity of pounding the ball with Jonathan Taylor, they started reeling off the wins. Everyone was left with a sour taste in their mouth because of the shock final week loss to the Jaguars that caused them to miss the playoffs, but before that they were beating some really good teams. They finished the year 9 in points scored and points allowed, a fact their record doesn't reflect.
That's last year, but what about this year? Well, in my opinion they upgraded from Wentz to Matt Ryan. I know Ryan looked old and worn down last year, but he was playing with arguably the worst offensive line in the league and his top receiver was a rookie TE. He wasn't completely bereft of weapons but it wasn't even an average squad on the whole. I'm betting that upgrading to one of the league's top lines, top RB's, and an underrated receiving corp will help him look 5 years younger. And even if something were to happen to Ryan the Colts smartly added Nick Foles to be their backup. Not many teams in the league have that kind of insurance at the most important position.
On the defensive side of the ball they added some nice pieces in Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue. You could argue both guys are no longer elite and that's fine, but they are both still really solid players at important positions.
Another important factor is their schedule. If Indy played in the AFC West I wouldn't be nearly so high on them, but they play in arguably the weakest division in football, the AFC South. In addition to four juicy games against the Texans and Jaguars, they also drew the entire NFC East (another weak division), the Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, and Vikings. That's 12 games where they should be favored already and you could also throw in two more games against the Titans. Their toughest three games are the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos and they get the first two of those at home. There's not one game on their schedule where they look like a significant underdog.
So if you think the Colts upgraded on defense, at least more consistent on offense, and have one of the easiest schedules in the league, then how are they not a near lock for 10+ wins? The -160 line suggests they are and I agree. They might not make me a huge return, but I think the Colts are a near lock to go over and cover this bet.
2) OVER: San Francisco over 9.5 wins (-145)...Bet: 340
My arguments for San Francisco are going to look almost identical to my arguments for Indy. I think they are upgraded at QB and on defense, and I think they have a relatively easy schedule all things considered.
Let's start with the QB because I know many people are still questioning Trey Lance (reasonably so). This isn't even so much about Lance as it is about Garoppolo. I've maintained since Lance was drafted that he doesn't even have to be the next Josh Allen for this to work out ok. He just needs to be better than Jimmy and I don't think that's a particularly hard hurdle to clear. If you've watched any amount of 49'ers tape you know what I'm talking about. Jimmy is not the most accurate guy ever (go watch how many amazing catches his receivers had to make because the ball was high or behind them), he can't throw deep very well, he's not particularly mobile, and he makes too many incredibly stupid decisions that lead to turnovers.
Jimmy could only manage 2 TDs/3 INTs in the playoffs last year while averaging about 180 yards a game. Those are numbers from the 1990's! I don't want to hear about how he's a winner. That's the same type of garbage that Tebow supporters used to spout. The 49'ers are winning in spite of Garoppolo, not because of him. Lance almost has to be an upgrade by default and there's still a chance he ascends into elite status. That is very much on the table.
On defense the 49'ers upgraded at their weakest position in the off-season by adding Charvarius Ward to their cornerback group. Ward is a very solid addition coming over from KC.
Much like Indy, the 49'ers also have a reasonable schedule to navigate. It's not easy per se but it shouldn't drag them down either. Their hardest games are the AFC West games, Tampa, and two games against the Rams (a team they have dominated recently), but outside of that they get the NFC South, the Dolphins, the Commanders, the Saints, the suddenly weak Seahawks twice, and a Cardinals team that looks weaker than last year. I see 6 tossups and 11 games where they are a clear favorite.
All together they look like a reasonably safe option to clear 9.5 wins. Vegas gives them -145 odds to go over which is just a little worse than the Colts. That seems accurate to me.
3) UNDER: Denver Broncos under 10.5 wins (-160)...Bet: 260
My final bet is one that makes me a little uncomfortable when I first see it but the logic for it is strong.
The addition of Russell Wilson complicates this certainly. Russ is the only reason the Broncos line is this high in the first place. But I can make a very real argument that Russ is the 3 best QB in that division too. It's no lock that he changes the team as much as he does the Seahawks.
My biggest argument against the Broncos is the schedule. As stated many times now, I think the AFC West is absolutely brutal. To me the worst team in the division is the Raiders and they might be better than half the rest of the league.
So the Broncos drew the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers twice each, the 49'ers, the Colts, the Titans, the Ravens, and the Rams. That's 11 tough matchups right off the bat. We can also throw in the Cardinals potentially. The only easy games are the Jets, Jaguars, Texans, Seahawks, and Panthers. Even if they win all five of those (no sure bet), they still need to win 6 out of 11 against some of the best teams in the league. Is it doable? Sure, especially if they can keep their 3r ranked defense from last year, but it's no easy feat.
Speaking of the defense, that is what propelled this team to 7 wins last year. It's easy to look at the defense and think “well they added Russ and were already at 7 wins so now they should easily be at 10 or 11.” Things don't necessarily work like that however. Defenses in the NFL don't always stay elite from year to year. For the perfect example just look at Denver from 2016 to 2017. They went from 4t in scoring defense in 2016 to in 2017. That kind of thing happens every year and often inexplicably. Good offenses tend to stay good. The same does not necessarily apply to defense.
If the Broncos lose even a little bit on the defense then they are suddenly at risk of underperforming just a little bit. I believe that is being factored into the Vegas line. How else can you explain why they are -160 to go under 10.5 and +135 to go over it? There's clearly a lot of risk here for the Broncos and I think it's unwise to assume they are going to add Russell Wilson and immediately start pounding people.
I'm not nearly as certain about this one as the other two, but I still really like the bet. I think the most likely outcome for the Broncos is either 9 or 10 wins, still below the 10.5 line. That's why they are my third favorite bet for this competition.
