6/29 MON
(8:05amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- OTA rumors and observations report posting MON midday.
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season started yesterday. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
The final regular season tallies and some gambling discussion on it.
-- Next TST video today: We lead off the week with our review of Luther Burden’s 2025 tape and valuation.
Nate Boerkircher scouting review yesterday: https://youtu.be/PZ-zU2yjzRM
Two Scouts Talking 2027 NFL Draft QB prospect series (there’s gonna be a ton of them): QB Dante Moore, Oregon https://youtu.be/Mb7Kk1dcpgA and re-scouting of Arch Manning https://youtu.be/Zo-54kbIQ2Y have dropped so far.
-- NOTE: I’m researching and working through all the main/key injuries lingering out there in the NFL/for FF as I work on the draft guide, which has ripple effects for all rankings and ratings and betting, etc. And I am getting a lot/learning a lot from them...and GEMINI does a lot of the heavy lifting/research, so everybody wins.
I’m gonna keep them coming as we dial in the 2026 Draft Guide projections and commentaries. I’m working my way down from the major/monster ones to the more curious/suspect/double-check-and-make-sure-things-will-be-OK injury Q&A’s...like with a Bo Nix.
-- The month of June is Draft Guide prep and reporting season. It’s pushed back a little bit from usual time ranges due to the Schedule release being so much later this year.
-- A ‘Strength of Schedule’ light reporting, daily series runs through June.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
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NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- 2026 Draft Guide studies...version 1.0 release July 1-4 range.
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
7/1 drop at the earliest, but that’s looking a touch too idealistic.
7/2-3 drop most likely. Absolute worst case would be 7/4 morning.
I want to/will have it out ahead of the long weekend, so folks have the option to work with it some if they desire.
The first wave of commentaries includes the top skill position starters and key backups and many rookies. The week of 7/5, I’ll be adding DST commentaries then kicker’s commentary.
All July we will add more and more commentaries and add on commentaries as news hits so that it’s fully loaded and ready for August.
More info on the draft guide release and ‘things’ all week.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed “is going to be a big-time player” in 2026 after successfully taking on an expanded route tree this spring.
Was this just copy & paste’d from his years in New Orleans?
The Saints never used him correctly/enough, through 3 regimes...and then Seattle traded for him in 2025 and barely used him.
I’d like to believe this, for his sake...but I lived through enough Cordarrelle Patterson eras with this same copy & paste from OTAs hype on they where gonna get more work and be used in inventive ways.
I know this bull$#!& when I smell it.
-- The latest on Terrion Arnold from Adam Schefter: https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/2071231704669286588
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- “If you want to hate America, watch the news. If you want to love America, drive through it” ~German World Cup fan
-- Brandon Aiyuk says he will not report to 49ers training camp: ‘I don’t care how long I gotta wait’ and 'IDGAF HOW MANY MILLIONS I LOSE YOU GOTTA RESPECT ME FIRST!'
-- “What they start doing is they start fining you $50,000, $75,000,” Tom Brady said on the Stick To Football podcast. “And I’m saying, like, I hate that. I hate the fact that, like, you sign a contract for $2 million a year, $5 million a year, and it’s so easy for someone to say, ‘Give me $75,000. Give me $50,000. Oh, it’s your second offense? That’s $100,000. That’s your third offense, $200,000.’ . . . “What job is like that in the world? Where you make a mistake at your job, and they come in, they go, ‘Hey, we’re gonna take your salary away.’ And then people are like, ‘Yeah, you should take his salary away.’”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/TylerRatcliff17/status/2070974232645754951
-- The anniversary of this deserves an acknowledgment: https://x.com/90swwe/status/2071193660478427187
-- If you don’t know this story, you’re gonna love this 6+ minute story...and the way it starts, you think you know what it’s gonna be...but you’ll be shocked where it goes from there.
https://youtu.be/1IXNd4jPiVM?si=co86wVNIgiHH5yIK
== Daily Series ==
NEW for JUNE: 2026 Strength of Schedule analysis according to FFM!
I am putting my data into GEMINI and letting it do two things...do my calculations for me on our internal NFL-based ‘Strength of Schedule’...which takes a ton of things into consideration like our current win-loss projections for all teams 2026, analysis on weather, and travel, and BYE week impacts, etc.
I’m doing a slow burn for some daily fun/fare, BUT I’m also running my AI writer/creation AI_McGillicuddy1 to take all my data and guidance/notes and then make a report on the schedule as if he is an expert schedule analyzer (with our data) and then writes it in his comedic way that I constructed him to be like...a Frankenstein writer, half robot/half football writer/comedian.
We’ll add a team’s strength of schedule per day until we’re done. But we’ll begin with the first two, to get us started, the A’s group and then their quick schedule analysis reports from AI_McGillicuddy1 will hit during the day.
How we evaluate the SOS is a winning percentage (like everyone else), but ours is weighted for certain factors on top of our own internal projections for 2026 season strength of the 32 teams. The higher the % above .500, the tougher the schedule and vice-versa.
Our FFM Internal SOS for 2026, current:
*Adding Warren Sharp’s #1-32 rank on their S.O.S. calculations just for a fun check/parallel to a football research group that also gets that S.O.S. is a whole different animal than just “what was their record last year?” For Sharp Analysis notes, it’s displayed as #1 their easiest/#32 toughest scale.
45.81% = Cincinnati Bengals (#3)
45.83% = Detroit Lions (#1)
45.88% = New Orleans Saints (#2)
46.05% = San Francisco 49ers (#8)
46.38% = Indianapolis Colts (#9)
47.40% = NY Giants (#24)
48.23% = Green Bay Packers (#17)
48.27% = Chicago Bears (#27)
48.74% = Baltimore Ravens (#6)
49.08% = Philadelphia Eagles (#7)
49.41% = NY Jets (#5)
49.73% = Carolina Panthers (#30)
49.75% = LA Chargers (#21)
49.75% = Pittsburgh Steelers (#18)
49.92% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#23)
49.99% = LA Rams (#28)
50.25% = New England Patriots (#12)
51.22% = Cleveland Browns (#4)
50.80% = Houston Texans (#26)
51.10% = Dallas Cowboys (#29)
51.26% = Seattle Seahawks (#22)
51.38% = Kansas City Chiefs (#10)
51.90% = Miami Dolphins (#31)
52.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars (#15)
52.25% = Buffalo Bills (#14)
52.94% = Las Vegas Raiders (#19)
53.11% = Atlanta Falcons (#20)
53.29% = Minnesota Vikings (#16)
54.50% = Denver Broncos (#11)
57.98% = Arizona Cardinals (#32)
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