5/4 MON
(5:55amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- We reached the top 300 prospect level of our initial DRD rankings. I’m going to audit the list a little every day this week (as we get any info from rookie minicamps and tryout guys signing or getting cut, etc.) plus add 2-3 or so prospect commentaries per day including more special ‘twist’ non-rookie options.
After this upcoming week of daily tweaking, we’ll then settle into once a week publishing the DRD top 300+ updates and adding/updating commentaries, etc.
-- Monday May 4th starts our next/2.0 version of the post-NFL Draft mock DRD series...this time we do SuperFlex but it’s also really doing a recheck of the flows and movements we’re seeing at all the positions since the euphoria of the post-NFL Draft week. And I’m going to use it as a platform to take alternative players to the ones I am usually/foundationally taking in version 1.0, so we can talk about some fresh names.
One-a-day mocks from the 12 draft spots on the 2.0 SuperFlex version. And we will have just a select few higher probability TWIST players available to take in this one to spice it up as well.
-- NFL DRAFT TEAM GRADES...debut of a week of grades happens today.
Our NFL Draft team grades are nothing like the mainstream ones where everyone gets an A or B or C...because they are paid by the thing they are supposed to be critiquing (the league)...although there might be actual Ds and this year because this was the stupidest draft on execution that I’ve ever seen in a draft in my career.
We use calculations/algorithms to put real grades on the teams based on our perfect draft criteria and average draft criteria, etc., blended into a grade based on our valuations. There will be F grades (gasp)...probably several of them.
We will grade each team’s draft but then I plan to debut this week...
-The top 10 ‘best picks’ statistically...not best players, best pick at they spot they got them...so ‘savviest’ picks you could say.
-The top 10 ‘worst picks’ statistically...wasted picks for the golden opportunity spot the teams were in.
-Best/Savviest draft...who created the most value with their picks at the spot they were picking. Taking the top guy at #1 helps an overall draft grade, but any idiot could have made that pick. I want to grade how they did with the picks they had...quality vs. quantity.
-Late-round and UDFA signing grades...who picked the best/sharpest when the obvious players were gone?
-- The NFL Draft impact/changes to the Dynasty rankings...I’m about 75-80% done with adding more late-round/UDFA rookies, and going through and determining the impact of the entire draft on all the teams/players for FF. I hope to post the new Dynasty overall rankings/valuations tonight but might be Tuesday.
It’s like cooking a great meal or a fine wine (I’m told)...don’t rush it...even though I want to do everything NOW, it takes time to back through and reconsider the impacts of the new rosters/rookies added, so very hopefully I finish today if I don’t run into any snags. And I’ll continue to audit rosters/projections/valuations all summer.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- 2026 Draft Guide studies and commentary writing is about to start...all month of May. More info on timings of things coming up.
-- DRD valuations/rankings top 300+ board updates/adds to everyday post-NFL Draft week and every week through the entire offseason.
-- DRD 5-round Mock Drafts...about to start a SuperFlex 12-episode series.
-- Prospect grades by position and rookie rankings boards are being debuted, updated and added to daily/weekly up to kickoff 2026.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates daily/weekly. IDP studies/projections are trying to get done by the end of April, but may not hit until early May.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Antonio Williams, De’Zhaun Stribling, Zavion Thomas, Cyrus Allen all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...going through the entire staff...I am working on the framework of how I want to present that. This will be a first ever series (for me) where I go beyond ‘just the new head coaches’. ETA in May/June to start it up.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- This is gonna be the story of the summer: Brendan Sorsby either returning to college to make millions or is suspended a year for CFB or he goes to the pros in the supplemental draft. Possibly to 1.01 to the Raiders, who don’t need him so they can potentially trade that to pick for something? Wait until you see the rules (below) for who gets the #1 pick in the Supplemental Draft...I had no idea this is how the #1 pick in that is determined.
This also may be Arizona’s way to find their QB the NFL’s old fashioned, tried-and-true way: By totally dumb luck.
Here’s a 15-20-minute discussion of the situation worth listening to because Sorsby could be coming a 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft near you...soon.
https://youtu.be/cRefcoJg9lk?si=rUaKuAdqBXa-wExa
I’m going to give my Sorsby scouting thoughts ASAP.
Facts on the Supplemental Draft, if it comes down to it for Sorsby:
The NFL Supplemental Draft priority for 2026 is determined by a weighted lottery divided into three distinct groups based on the 2025 season performance. Because the Las Vegas Raiders finished with the league's worst record (3–14), they hold the highest mathematical probability of securing the top priority in the Group 1 lottery.
The draft operates as a blind bidding system rather than a standard linear order. Teams submit a bid specifying a player and the round they are willing to forfeit in the 2027 NFL Draft. Priority is only invoked if multiple teams bid the same round on the same player.
Supplemental Draft Priority Groups
The 32 teams are categorized as follows to determine the "waiver-style" priority:
Group 1: Teams with 6 or fewer wins in the 2025 season.
Group 2: Non-playoff teams with more than 6 wins.
Group 3: All 2025 Playoff teams.
2026 Group 1 Priority Order (Highest Probability)
These teams have the highest priority for bidding. The order below reflects the final 2025 standings for teams with 6 or fewer wins:
Las Vegas Raiders (3–14)
New York Jets (3–14)
Arizona Cardinals (3–14)
Tennessee Titans (3–14)
New York Giants (4–13)
Cleveland Browns (5–12)
Washington Commanders (5–12)
New Orleans Saints (6–11)
Kansas City Chiefs (6–11)
Cincinnati Bengals (6–11)
Key Rules and Forfeiture
Pick Forfeiture: If a team successfully selects a player (e.g., in the 3rd round), they lose their corresponding pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Lottery Timing: The weighted lottery is typically conducted by the league office in the days leading up to the Supplemental Draft in July.
Tiebreakers: For teams with identical records (like the Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, and Titans), the lottery weights provide the primary distinction, followed by strength of schedule.
-- HEADLINE: Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said Brenen Thompson has a “similar size, height, speed combination” to Tyreek Hill and also compared him to DeSean Jackson.
5’8”/185, 4.29 40-yd, 1.50 10-yd, 40.5” vert., 4.06 shuttle, 6.53 three-cone = Tyreek/2016
5’9”/164, 4.26 40-yd, 1.54 10-yd, SKIP vert., SKIP shuttle, SKIP three-cone = Br Thomp/2026
Comparing Thompson to Tyreek Hill is reckless and wrong, and why Mike McDaniel is a ‘Cool Cat’ and all, but part of why he lost control of the Dolphins--speed chasing. Why do we applaud McDaniel for scouting by 40-time only (it seems)...and mock Al Davis’s ghost for doing the same. Al Davis’s apparent lovechild, Mike McDaniel, just conned the weak LAC GM into making this pick.
Hill ran his 4.2s 40-time 21 pounds thicker/more mass than Thompson, so it’s not even comparable. Thin, wispy guys who can run fast is not a surprise and not unique to the draft. And then when these future-broken-in-half-on-a-tackle tiny WRs skip everything else in testing, it’s ‘a tell’, as Thompson did...skipped stuff he’s not good/not Tyreek at. We can debate Thompson as a talent on his own, but to call similar size-speed to Tyreek is either totally stupidity or a purposeful lie.
Now, comparing Thompson to DeSean Jackson and it makes more sense...DJax was 169 pounds and ran a 4.35 with excellent agility times that Thomspon refused to reveal to us. DJax was also a fearless return man, and Thompson has returned a total of one punt and no kicks in 4 years of college play...a college career where he could get on the field at Texas, then couldn’t at Oklahoma, and finally dropped down to Miss State to get some play time. And it’s a different NFL for 160+ pound, tiny WRs in this era vs. DJax’s 2208 entry into the league.
Comparing Thompson to NFL underperforming or hurt most of his career DeSean Jackson or to Hall of Famer Tyreek Hill reveals a reason to totally fear what (terrible) decisions are being made in L.A. now. BUT HEY! Their 40-times were close...that makes them equals, right?
-- Speaking of idiots running football teams...
https://x.com/djdelfonik/status/2050731929058562050?s=43
-- It’s not the news that’s impactful here on this X post, it’s the comments underneath where the non-professionals bring reality... https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/2050771310679146800?s=43
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- Fanatics has announced, via Fox Sports, the ten best-selling rookie jerseys in the wake of the 2026 draft. Josh Downs leads the way.
Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, lands at No. 5. That's one spot behind Steelers rookie quarterback Drew Allar, a third-round pick, who sits at No. 4.
Here's the full top ten: (1) Downs; (2) Dolphins linebacker Jacob Rodriguez; (3) Cowboys linebacker Malachi Lawrence; (4) Allar; (5) Mendoza; (6) Dolphins cornerback Chris Johnson; (7) Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love; (8) Patriots offensive lineman Caleb Lomu; (9) Bears safety Dillon Thieneman; (10) Jets linebacker David Bailey.
-- Schottenheimer was asked about early impressions of undrafted free agents Michael Trigg and D.J. Rogers from the week’s activities. But while discussing them, he also mentioned how they’d fit into the bigger picture at tight end:
“I’m really excited about those two young men, and adding it to a group that I feel is one of the most stable positions on our roster.”
-- According to a source, that was Washington’s Jonah Coleman and Arkansas’ Mike Washington Jr., two prospects viewed as potential Day 3 fallbacks if they didn’t land Jadarius Price.
-- “Montez Sweat had one of his better years in the NFL, whether that shows up in the sack total or not. He’s a very complete player, both run game and pass game,” Ben Johnson said. “And you saw tremendous growth from Austin Booker when we were able to get him back as well. The combination of us being able to coach better and those guys taking the next step as part of this system, we’ve got some pretty good pieces to work with.”
https://x.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/2049237236810481996
Your moment of Zen for this day...
https://x.com/fbgreatmoments/status/2050772340854935758?s=43
The more I watched this, the more it sunk in (Tyren Montgomery): https://x.com/austinhuff/status/2050689252829102093?s=43
== New Daily Series ==
Let’s rank The Best players/The Most Important players in the NFL!
The NFL does that series each summer where the players (and maybe others?) vote on the top 100 for the prior season, and the outcome (to me) is like a voting by people who never watch football besides highlights and people without a clue voting in very bizarre ways. You know this series, right?
Well, I was wanting to do a kinda top 100 type thing myself, but I am going to tone it down to the top 64...but using two players from each team, so it may be more of a true top 40-50(?) with some forced stragglers on there for the player’s after 40-50+...but it should be ‘close enough’ and ‘interesting enough’, and I guarantee my rankings will be way different than the NFL voting.
I’ll do a team a day, two players from it and when we get enough you’ll see 4-5 tiers develop. I’ll go alphabetical order, but to switch up my usual pattern...I’ll do a reverse alphabetical order. We start with Washington and add two more each day until we get to Arizona.
*When I have an offensive lineman, I’m going to add their overall grades from PFF last year for some context...XX Overall Grade/rank at their position...XX/x, XX/x Pass/Run Block grade with the rank at their position for 2025.
Trent Williams (92/3rd OT...80/12th, 93/2nd), Tristan Wirfs (93/2nd OT...85/4th, 92/3rd), Baker Mayfield, Cam Ward, Jayden Daniels
Jordan Mailata (88/6th OT...82/6th, 82/6th), Laremy Tunsil (85/6th OT...89/2nd, 75/21st), Grey Zabel (From Wk14 on, the SEA march to SB: 82/8th OG...79/10th, 82/5th...9 grades in the playoffs), Brock Purdy, Quinyon Mitchell, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Peter Skoronski (79/5th OG...85/2nd, 73/10th)
Joey Porter Jr.
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