Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
2/16 MON
(7:32amET)
Today
-- Back to the grind Monday, I have a couple items in progress/almost done. Whichever one gets completed first is the next report out and so on. A new scouting report is one for sure.
This Week’s Agenda…
Holy series ‘QBs 1.0’ will publish week of 2/16. RB or WR position group look next.
Working on the next full scouting reports...as I start to knock more of the full reports down now.
Senior Bowl Preview Scouting Reports continue with the few I have left to edit/publish...but we now turn to Combine preview reports as well, as we set sail for that mega important event.
Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...going through the entire staffs...I am working on the framework of how I want to present that. This will be a first ever series (for me) where I go beyond ‘just the new head coaches’. ETA in March.
The next early/pre-Combine positional grades and rankings board is underway and 1-2-3 of them will be out this week. The TE group 1.0 posted last week.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- We have three tidal wave changing events taking place this offseason...and it’s a tidal wave that has been building in recent years and now it’s hitting a peak and about to crash down on shore and create a ton of wreckage. It’s not anything new added to the offseason schedule...it’s just what they have become that’s changed...no longer little ripples to the NFL or FF, it’s huge waves now...and those waves will be getting bigger every season ahead, but this 2026 swell may be the ‘square one’ or ‘patient zero’ of this massive sea change for the NFL, and thus for FF.
The three key events are all known events every offseason...
1) The coaching changes
2) Free Agency
3) The NFL Draft
The coaching changes taking place in the past month are insane, in terms of predictable outputs and continuity ahead for Fantasy/Dynasty.
The coaching change tally in 2026: 10 head coaching changes. 19 offensive coordinator changes. 13 defensive coordinator changes. 30% to 50%+ of key coaches changed over in one year. Most of those fired coaches hadn’t been in their jobs but for 1-3 years. What other industry sees a-third of all key management for all the top 30 businesses replaced every 1-3 years?
Consistency and predictability are out the door. There’s a reason why we had 7 new division winners in 2025 from 2024. Trying to predict, for FF especially, what offenses will do one year to the next is becoming futile with many teams...because if the head coach isn’t replaced, and then a whole regime overturned, then likely the still intact head coach sees his offensive coordinator is getting promoted to open jobs. Look at the change of events for Detroit and Chicago when Ben Johnson left one for the other.
And there’s a new phenomenon happening in the NFL... Head coaches being hired are mostly from the offensive side, and those former offensive coordinators now head coaches -- they are calling their own plays. ‘True’ offensive coordinators are becoming extinct.
10 head coaches changed this cycle...that’s a lot, historically. Of the 10 new coaches hired...six are former offensive coordinators, and they are all definitely calling their own plays.
21 of 32 current head coaches are from the offensive side...17 of those 21 are for sure calling the plays on offense, the other 4 of 21 are split between those who let the O-C do their thing and the HCs who say they aren’t calling the plays, but they kinda are (like in KC).
NFL offenses are undergoing massive changes with staffs year-to-year as the patience level of owners is gone. And those teams/coaches who do well, their assistants are raided for head coaching jobs and change hits the strong and the failed/weak.
10 head coaching changes. 19 offensive coordinator changes. 13 defensive coordinator changes = 22 of 32 teams had a change at either head coach or offensive coordinator. Over half the league is having some kind of massive or minor offensive change -- that’s not going to be easy to predict FF output expectations for 2026. You can’t just look back at 2025 and mostly assume it ahead for 2026 when 50%+ of teams are having their offenses disrupted.
10 teams have the same exact coaches in place at head coach and offensive coordinator. Eight of the 10 are head coaches who are from offensive backgrounds.
With all that management change, it only makes sense there’s gonna be a ton of change through Free Agency. There are two powerful forces about to run into each other and cause a powder keg explosion of more change here.
All these new coaches hired or promoted from within have connections to certain players, and some of those players are free agents in 2026. They also covet certain free agents for their ‘system’ and the new coaches rising to power want that ____ player to come in to their new team because for new head coaches, the established stars already there are not ‘his guys’...new coaches want ‘their guys’, they want to buy and draft new ‘their guys’...and those new players brought in could/will be major disruptors to what we think is the current predicted flow of things.
Example: What if John Harbaugh pays Isaiah Likely a ton of money to go the NYG? Kiss Theo Johnson’s value good-bye, but also Likely is now working in some tandem with Theo...and Theo is strongly connected to Dart. I’m hopeful about Likely and Theo for 2026...on different teams and working as solo starters, but they could join forces in 2026 on NYG and it blows up both of them for FF. Whereas if I. Likely signs with Philly, with Dallas Goedert going, then Likely goes on a rocket ship ride of value. We aren’t debating Likely’s talent...it’s all about his new team landing spot.
In February-March, making FF deals, we have to be sure we are not stepping into a potential trap on acquiring a player on hope but then they land bad...Likely or Breece Hall or Tyler Allgeier, etc. A lot of free agents are gonna land bad for them/for their FF impact or they could just land to disrupt a current situation none of us saw coming. And there used to be 2-3 free agents that we all really watched...there’s like 10-15+ potential disruptors on the move and then I bet we see a record number of NFL traded players in March-April as well.
Not only are the mass coaching changes an unstable variable...we’re also gonna get one of the deepest pools of talent in a free agent class we’ve ever seen and it has to go somewhere, where it will disrupt something in most cases. The deeper Free Agent group is a natural function of the outright flood of talent flowing into the NFL. The RBs available this cycle is gonna be wild...several starter-level RBs available, but only a few teams really wanting/needing a lead RB. A ton of decent QBs are out there...a Malik Willis signing, a Mac Jones trade, etc., changes the landscape for an entire team’s RBs and WRs/TEs even more.
Look at what the Chicago and New England elite free agency periods did for them from 2024 to 2025. Look what Washington’s elite free agent period from 2023 to 2024 did for them...from last place, to the NFC title game.
None of us knows what team is gonna be the elite free agent team in 2026. Whoever it is, it totally changes the projections for the FF assets on the team...as well as the win total betting this summer.
Once Free Agency settles in/is over...then the NFL Draft comes along and dumps another box of marbles into the game, flooding rosters with more talent.
The difference of A.I.’s/ChatGPTs capabilities in 2023 to 2024, and then the leap in 2024 to 2025, and then where it is at now...it’s an insane change for the whole country/world taking place...almost right under the majority of people’s noses. Imagine what it will be next year at this time with A.I. advancements, and then the next year...and so on.
In NFL terms the A.I. big change/rapid advancement parallel is -- we are rapidly going from...
Teams lucky to have one decent QB in the past, and like 5 QBs that ruled...to 25+ teams now have a decent QB...there’s 15-20 QBs that might be top 5 FF QBs in 2026. This time next year, there may not be any team, save maybe 1-2, that doesn’t have a legit QB. If you think the NFL isn’t changing radically -- our current Super Bowl champions were led by Sam Darnold! If I told you that two January’s ago...
The NFL’s QB group is changing faster than A.I.
We’re gonna go from an NFL with a few great RBs, a few good RBs, a lot of mediocre RBs, and a rare few Avant garde teams that did an RBBC situation...to now most every team having 2-3 deep on legit starting RB talents on their depth chart. We went from 1-2 legit RBs per roster in like 2023-2024, to now shifting towards 2-3 legit RBs on every roster that started in 2025 and will gain more steam in 2026 and will be completely overload in 2027-2028. There is too much talent headed to the NFL with rare places to go to be THE KNOWN top option for a team. The days of CMC and Derrick Henry are almost over. ‘Injury to the other guy’ will be the primary launch of the great FF RBs of the future...not strictly their talent levels.
WR groups used to be lucky to have one star receiver. Now most teams have 1-2 guys who could be ‘1s’...on our way to seeing teams with 2-3-4 WRs who have ‘#1’ potential. Soon it will be every team has 3-4 WRs with #1 capabilities. How can you give great target opportunity to all of them?
And then these teams will not only have 3-4 WRs with #1 capabilities...they’ll have a TE who is as good an option in the pass game as the WRs. QBs are gonna have 3-4-5 overall legit options to throw to downfield. Ten years ago, teams were lucky to have two neat options to throw to for their pass game. And if you add the rise of unique pass game RBs...now the target projections get even more spread out and more muddy.
When you think that maybe building your FF team around that one ace TE, like Trey McBride, is the best way to go...the TE talent is flooding in to give more and more teams two legit TE options to work with. At various points in games this season...the Rams were running 3-4 TE sets...not 3-4 WR sets, 3-4 TE sets. What happens when the TE talent flood leads to teams having at least one good starting TE but also another working with or behind the starter, pressuring the starter or just taking too many snaps away because teams can rotate guys to keep them fresh?
The new head coach of the Cardinals just came from watching the Rams run 3-4 TE sets regularly, as a tactic. Is Trey McBride really a lock for similar 2026 production as he did in 2025 when there is now a whole new staff and maybe/probably a new QB?
I’m just pointing all this out because I know everyone wants to make Dynasty trades and fix their teams all in a week, and when I get asked questions about a deal offer I’m usually shooting it down and citing all the potential change issues/the risk with some of the players involved...when I do that, people probably get irritated with me and want to know when the Dynasty rankings are gonna be out and why aren’t they out already (I’m working on it, won’t be too long now). I get it, but you gotta be constantly aware of this total sea change happening in the NFL. There are not just a few obvious players to hone in on to acquire -- it is not obvious who the totally clear lead RB (or true handcuff) or #1 WR target is on most teams anymore, given all the coaching changes, free agency and draft roster upheavals to come.
We have to be patient and savvy right now...just a little bit longer wait for major deals to offer in most situations. There are some players to go after now...and I’ve started to name some of them and my HOLY series coming up will go through all this on another level...but mostly, right now, we are all in a fact-finding ‘holding pattern’ in February and into early March (free agency, and trades) before making major deals.
All these Dynasty rankings and trade analyzers in Dynasty that are out there right now, they aren’t worth a nickel. What’s true today/assumed current from what players did last year is getting uprooted by this offseason and will continue to be as the assistant coaching openings close/get filled and as we get to/through free agency. It’s fun to look at the free view Dynasty rankings out there, but you can’t be swayed by any of them yet...they cannot anticipate all the changes about to happen nor the ripple effects from the changes. The NFL turkey is only just half cooked...it needs more time to cook to completion.
I do see two general opportunities to act on, right now, for trades/moves and I will explain those in more detail later today on a subscriber only piece...a Part II that goes with this ‘intro’.
-- HEADLINE: Commanders offensive coordinator David Blough said the Washington offense will be “built around” getting Terry McLaurin 10 targets a game.
I put this on here as a prime example of things changing.
Washington cleaned house on assistants. Dan Quinn doesn’t really micromanage things, he lets the assistants do their things.
For whatever idiotic reason David Blough thought it wise to go out and shoot his mouth off about who he is building the offense around...he still said it, to the world. I’m sure Blough absolutely believes he means it. How in the world can Blough confidently state that when he has no idea what the GM is going to do in free agency or with trades or the draft at WR...or TE?
Terry McLaurin was drifting away the past year+. He’s not a WR you build an offense around in this era...he’s just great to have with your ensemble, but he’s definitely not JSN-Puka-Mike Wilson...but new O-C, new to coaching in general David Blough is indicating to the world that he is, so Blough is gonna try and make it happen no matter what...in theory. That’s a new/fresh change coming to the Commanders target flow from the coaching change.
Here’s some other Shough intro press conference quotes...
On Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt
Blough referred to him by his nickname and praised the impact he made as a seventh-round rookie:
"I think, as everybody saw, all the flashes that Bill had in his rookie season. I think it’s really exciting to think about what he can look like in a second year behind this offensive line. And I think we’ve got one running back signed, so there will definitely be acquisitions that take place there. And it depends exactly on kind of how the room looks, but man, incredibly confident in what Bill can be in this league as a starting running back."
RC NOTE: Doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement as HIG GUY at RB as the lead dog...but maybe the last line was. He didn’t commit to him as the starter, he just gave him useless praise that he is confident he could be a starting RB...maybe he meant for some other team, or starter when his newly signed or drafted ‘his guy’ Blough RB gets hurt? We know Blough will directly state secret things...he didn’t hold back on McLaurin...he did with JCM.
While Blough didn't give long, dedicated quotes to others in the same way, here is how he addressed them:
Ben Sinnott (TE): Blough was more "tough love" regarding Sinnott, noting that while he has potential, he has high expectations for the position. He stated, "The tight end has a long way to go... [he is] entering a defining stretch."
Luke McCaffrey & Jaylin Lane (WRs): Blough grouped them into his vision for a more "pro-style" and "explosive" perimeter attack. He mentioned the need to find "reliable perimeter targets who can win against man coverage" and highlighted that the staff is pulling from experiences with various legendary QBs to help develop these younger pass catchers.
Laremy Tunsil (LT): Interestingly, he also named Tunsil (alongside Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin) as one of the "studs" he is building the new scheme around. *NOTE: JCM is not a ‘stud’ mentioned.
My Biggest FF takeaway from Blough quotes on ‘the others’...
Don’t hold your breath on Luke McCaffrey.
Ben Sinnott...whatever hope I thought there might be, ’I’m out’.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: New Orleans
(other notes)
-- The Saints are currently slightly underwater on CAP availability for 2026 -- that’s assuming they let Demario Davis, Taysom Hill, and Cam Jordan (and his hot dog water smelling self) all go to their natural free agency.
After those natural losses, they really need to chop out some overpaid players like Alvin Kamara (and spread the total losses over 2 years) and trade Chris Olave (vs. extending for big $$), but I don’t think they have the heart or will to do so. So, it’s gonna be a quite a free agent period for NO likely...little space to work with.
QB:
Joe Flacco (free agent)
Geno Smith ($26.5M to pay, $18M hit to release)
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Malik Willis (free agent)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)...wouldn’t be surprised if he retires either.
RB:
Javonte Williams (free agent, but I highly assume Dallas will sign him long-term)
Rico Dowdle (free agent)
David Montgomery? ($8.4M pay to play 2026 or cut for $4.9M hit, split in half on a past-June 1st cut)
Travis Etienne (free agent)
Najee Harris (free agent)
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Kareem Hunt (free agent)
Jerome Ford (free agent)
Aaron Jones (likely cut, then a free agent)
Nick Chubb (free agent)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
Joe Mixon ($10M pay to play 2026, or $2M hit to cut)...can he ever play again anyway?
WR:
George Pickens (free agent, but I can’t imagine Dallas lets him go to FA)
Tyreek Hill (likely cut or traded)
Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce
Christian Watson (free agent...but doubtful GB lets him go)
Jordan Addison (available in trade?) or Jalen Nailor (goes if Addison stays).
Stefon Diggs ($26.5M to play this year or $8M to cut)
Romeo Doubs (free agent)
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
Christian Kirk (free agent)
Keenan Allen (free agent)
Tutu Atwell (free agent)
Marquise Brown (free agent)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Evan Engram? ($14M pay for 2026 or cut for $10M hit, which they can maneuver easier on it with a post-June 1st cut)
David Njoku (free agent)
Taysom Hill (free agent)
Hunter Henry ? ($11.8M to play in 2026, $2.5M to cut)
Tyler Higbee (free agent)
Mike Gesicki ($7.7M pay or cut for $4.3M)
Tommy Tremble ($8M pay for 2026 or cut for $2.2M hit post-June 1st)
Darren Waller (free agent)
Other:
OL Braden Smith (free agent)
EDGE Trey Hendrickson (free agent)
CB Greg Newsome (free agent)
CB Rasul Douglas (free agent)
EDGE Odafe Oweh (free agent)
DL Cam Jordan (free agent)
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
2/15/26, Day 23 in JAX
14 of 39 radiation treatments done so far. No radiation on weekends.
3 weeks down, 5 more to go.
Nothing radical to update my diary today on the medical side. Just ‘tired’ much of this day. It comes and goes.
It was the last full day for my wife to be here this weekend, as she departs for home this morning.
What this Sunday will be known for, in my diary of things...
1) The first rainstorm hit the area since I’ve been here. It got up to near 80 degrees...then it got really windy...then it cut loose rain. The first mostly cloudy day in weeks.
I think the people are always so nice in this area (my experience) because the sun is always out. And I know there is science to that, and an obviousness to that...but just me being here day-to-day living (not vacation) for weeks...I can feel it firsthand. There is something about living in the sunshine state versus when I lived in Ohio. It’s a psyche changer.
When it’s 102 degrees in July here, then I want to be in Ohio for the summer...
2) We went to a top-rated seafood place in the area for our Valentine’s Dinner on Sunday. This place was packed at 3pm, legit. The waitress said they set a one-day record for sales on Valentine’s Day. I had two people recommend it to me. We were excited.
Our opinion = good, not great. Fresh food, high quality...but the ‘what we got’, it was fine but not ‘special’,
I got a Seafood Boil...I was so excited, I love a boil. They brought it out and...and...no ‘boil’? No seasoned ‘juice’ for the stuff to bathe in/soak up the spices, etc. They brought me all the food components of a boil in a bowl...dry...just the shrimp, sausage, potato, corn cooked fine...but dry, in a bowl. What? The food was good...would’ve been 100x better IN THE BOIL JUICES, which is part of a traditional boil. I’ve gotten the seafood boils in so many places and this was the first time it was served dry. Very weird.
My daily food diary...
Day 23 food spend = Tsunami Day to my food budget. $20 local breakfast (my cost, not my wife’s) and then skipped lunch and then $30 for the seafood place dinner (my cost).
$50 spend for the day.
23-day total food spend = $542...$23.56 per day average...we’re trying to get back in the $20 per day game...but the Valentine’s weekend WAS trouble. I need to replentish some grocery items soon. Not gonna pull it off for month number one.
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