Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/19 MON
(7:10amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Game reports from the Divisional playoffs will post daily all week, all completed before the next round starts. Ross is doing the NFC, and I am reporting the AFC (but watching/studying all the games).
FFM news stream page as we get good/interesting intel.
Senior Bowl scouting previews
Stash Report Update
== SUNDAY GAME FIRST REACTIONS ==
HOU-NE
-- My ‘all games are 50/50 in the playoffs’ catchphrase for 2026 holds up here...a one score game going into the 4th-quarter, snow/slippery field, mass in-game injuries for Houston, a ton of turnovers and near-miss turnovers on both sides. I’m not convinced, one way or the other, that the Patriots were the better team here, big picture...but they won...again. The team with the better O-Line and HC won...my OL and HC playoff thesis got back on track Sunday after taking its first hits Saturday.
-- I think C.J. Stroud just officially played his way out of any 2026 contract extension...and may instead go into year four of his 4-year rookie deal likely to be pitted against Davis Mills for a camp competition for the Week 1 job in 2026.
https://x.com/draftkings/status/2013004766629052550?s=43
But DeMeco is so personally tied to Stroud, it probably clouds his judgement...as it has all season. I don’t think Ryans has good judgement AT ALL about offensive things...but great defense, however.
It’s not a ‘this game’ thing or ‘these playoffs’ thing. Stroud has been rough all season, and we’ve pointed it out all season. Now the situation is a bit more dire after a disastrous playoffs.
https://x.com/carsobi/status/2013029584904528372?s=43
-- Three other Stroud scenarios to discuss...
1) Houston has to decide about Stroud’s 5th-year option. I assume they will pick it up, but it’s no longer a slam dunk.
2) Houston will likely look at trades of Stroud (get ready Cleveland)...but probably won’t find any real bidders. I bet the Texans may be internally thinking today...if we just had a solid, stable veteran...like Cousins or Flacco...
Possibly, the only thing that stood between Texans and the Super Bowl...Stroud getting hurt midseason and out for the year, and them adding Flacco or Cousins and/or just going with Davis Mills.
Crazy statement, that I definitely mean: If Jameis Winston were this team’s Week 1 QB, and played through all season, the Texans might have been the power in the AFC. Possibly, if they had Jacoby Brissett.
The difference in Houston being good/erratic and being good/great was the QB...and it was fixable all along.
https://x.com/phldawgs/status/2013008042371993985?s=43
3) Someone has to take Demeco Ryans and/or the GM into account for this, at some point, no? The offense has been letting them down for the past two years...their O-Line has been one of the worst in the league two years running. Stroud has gotten worse every year and is now a shell of himself. Where is the GM fortifying the O-Line (instead taking two really good Iowa State rookie WRs they don’t use/didn’t develop...and bypassing desperately needed OL prospects) Where is the coaching/developing of these things? ‘Great defense, terrible offense’ only gets you so far in the NFL now.
These ex-defensive coordinators turned head coaches are not doing QBs/offenses any favors unless they get an ace offensive coordinator...but they are usually very ‘blind’ to what a good offensive coordinator is (in this era)...AND really good/up-and-coming offensive-minded O-C prospects want nothing to do with playing for defensive-minded HCs.
Houston is at a crossroads.
https://x.com/rodger/status/2012999595287101667?s=43
-- Houston lost Trent Brown and Nico Collins before the game. Lost Cade Stover, Dalton Schultz in-game. Lost Woody Marks and Tytus Howard for several stretches in-game as well.
All the injuries...all the turnovers...and it was just 21-16 Pats going into the 4th-quarter.
-- Not a lot to say about the Patriots...they played OK/fine. For the second week in a row, they just kinda stayed out of the way and watched two (LAC, HOU) of the league’s bottom 3 offensive lines in the NFL (our internal metrics) self-implode.
https://x.com/pilotomemeslat/status/2012988622853562498
-- TreVeyon Henderson so does not matter to Vrabel/McDaniels...12 carries, 25 yards, 1 catch for -2 yards, and out of position on pass blocking multiple times again this game. He’s a liability...and one of the favorites to win the OROY?
-- I tried to tell the NFL he was a top 10 prospect his draft season...
https://x.com/fieldyates/status/2012994838640128199?s=43
-- Patriots at Broncos...why do I have a funny feeling the setup is gonna create a Denver rise-up/shock moment against a lightly tested Patriots?
https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/2013051916012401087?s=43
LAR-CHI
-- For my money, the two best teams in the tournament played here...and it was, yes...a 50/50 game...and scored another win for the better O-Line but not the better coach.
The weather played some part in this...to where it wasn’t a true representation of the two teams, and that factor was even worse in the earlier HOU-NE game. They play the entire season in domes and mild weather, mostly, then get to the playoffs and the teams fight each other and the elements.
The playoffs, especially this season’s tournament, is not about crowning the league’s best team...it’s about who escaped the attrition of weather and referee calls and in-game injuries the best. The league’s best team is not determined by this tournament...but it sure is fun to watch.
https://x.com/optastats/status/2013114976651653460?s=43
-- I have been wildly unimpressed with Sean McVay since the Seattle debacle Week 16. He basically just tongue kisses/lets Matt Stafford do whatever he wants. Their play calls/patterns have almost cost them every one of their last 5 games.
But credit the ‘all-in Stafford plan’ in a sense because...here they are in the Final Four. And this style is best suited to face...Seattle.
https://x.com/adamgrosbard/status/2013099896811749565?s=43
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2013068158559567967?s=43
https://x.com/sheilkapadia/status/2013078925740581296?s=43
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2013056089265238420?s=43
-- I want to go on record with a few things pro-Bears here..
1) Caleb Williams is arguably the single best QB in the NFL...because he is the single most dangerous QB in the league...and he still has room to grow, refine.
Sure, you get a few offline throws, you live with that to get the most ‘money’ late game QB in the league...the most gifted in the league...and the most blessed having Ben Johnson arrive there.
Some might disagree: https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2013113857070252395?s=43
https://x.com/vikesinsider/status/2013093874072178756?s=43
2) That Caleb TD throw late has to be the play, the most display of talent play of the entire season. It’s the Saquon ‘backwards jump over a tackler’ event of 2025-26.
https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/2013079442848092520?s=43
https://x.com/fdsportsbook/status/2013079434509602950?s=43
3) Ben Johnson has to be the best coach in the NFL...with the best all-around staff. Ben put together that staff...Ben coached up/took Caleb towards his God-given ability+...Ben crushed the 2025 free agency period...Ben coaches to win, he doesn’t coach scared.
Some don’t agree: https://x.com/section344lions/status/2013085295709687892?s=43
https://x.com/grimpost/status/2013077557130703297?s=43
A year from now, Super Bowl matchup: Bears vs. Chargers...? You know who wins? It’s 50/50.
-- The one matchup I was hoping to get, eventually, was the Rams versus Seattle...from a Rams betting to go to the Super Bowl perspective. I think the Rams are gonna come off that Week 16 event, where they piled on points on Seattle but then had the game stolen from the by the refs (like the Bills and Panther got ripped off) -- and that the one team I had confidence in the Rams beating was gonna be the rematch with Seattle.
I’m not so sure anymore/today, but I stick to my theory...
O-Line edge = Rams
Head Coach/staff edge = I think it’s lean Rams
QB edge = Stafford
Overall edge to = Rams.
BUT...Seattle’s defensive edge brings us to...’it’s a 50/50 game’.
https://x.com/fanduel/status/2013117968289521666?s=43
-- Final note from the weekend...
Congratulations NFL...this has been the worst officiated, most incompetent aid from ‘New York’ playoffs there has been in the modern era.
https://x.com/mschwartztv/status/2013075959855956414?s=43
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 50 WRs (30 teams in)...we’ve hit the 50 mark with 2 teams to go.
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Emeka Egbuka, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs,
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Chris Godwin, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Kayshon Boutte, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
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