RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 12/22-28 (SUN. Yest. Games React, Injuries, Weather)

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 28 December 2025

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

12/28 SUN

(7:48amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show 10:30amET-NoonET. Show access will post around 10amET+.

Week 17 final projections update will post around 12:30pmET

== Early Injury news... ==

Harold Fannin (groin) = all reports seem to indicate he is playing. How bad his injury is, how likely a recurrence is...all ‘unknown’.

NFL Fraud of the Century Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) is playing limited snaps today. Why are they forcing him out there? Easy answer -- the NFL is run by a pack of idiots, no different than any big corporation that doesn’t have its revolutionary, zealot founder at the head of it still.

George Kittle (ankle) = going to try it out pregame. I’m betting against him being able to go or being productive if he does. *See Josh Jacobs (NEVER BENCH YOUR STUDS...what a laugh). I started him in one league...hoping, praying...but he screwed me. They (GB) all lied or were delusional on his injury.

Chris Olave (back) = looks like a full go, no issues.

Sauce Gardner (calf) = is gonna play Week 17. Why? I have no idea.

Dylan Sampson (hand) = info on this has been so impossible to get...it makes you wonder about his hand, etc., but if they clear him to play, you have to assume he is OK enough.

GEMINI INJURY REPORT and (dumb) hivemind analysis/'strategic outlook'...

Player / Unit	Team	Status	Medical Expert Insight (Chao/Morse)	Strategic Outlook
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	Quest.	Dr. Morse: "Late-week groins are high-risk. Fannin says he 'should be good,' but groins are notorious for mid-game exits."	Start if Active. With Njoku OUT, he is Shedeur's #1 target. Check inactives at 11:30 AM ET.
George Kittle	SF	Quest.	Dr. Chao: "Ankle sprain. Didn't practice all week. Even if he plays, expect limited snap counts and blocking duties."	SNF Trap. Have a pivot (Colston Loveland) ready. Kittle will test it in warmups.
Dylan Sampson	CLE	Quest.	Dr. Morse: "Fracture on top of the hand. Will play with a club. Ball security in the heavy rain is the primary concern."	Flex Risk. With Judkins on IR, Sampson is the lead if active. Expect a volume-based, low-efficiency day.
T.J. Watt	PIT	OUT	Official: Lung issue. Medical staff is being cautious with oxygen capacity and risk of re-collapse.	Major Downgrade PIT DST. This is a massive break for the Browns' offense.
Lane Johnson	PHI	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Foot anchor isn't there. DNP all week confirms he hasn't progressed enough to protect the edge."	Saquon Downgrade. Philly’s right-side run success drops significantly without the All-Pro tackle.
Maxx Crosby	LV	OUT (IR)	Official: Placed on IR (Knee). Raiders are essentially shutting him down for the season.	Boost NYG Run Game. Tyrone Tracy Jr. faces a Las Vegas edge that is now completely missing its motor.
TreVeyon Henderson	NE	Active	Cleared: Successfully navigated concussion protocol and had a full practice Friday.	Tier 1 Start.
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	Active	Dr. Chao: "Heel issue is lingering (Limited all week). He’ll play, but top-end speed may be compromised."	WR2/3. High ceiling due to talent, but low floor if the heel flares up early.
Chris Olave	NO	Quest.	Dr. Morse: "Back injury popped up late. If it's spasms, it's a true game-time decision."	Standard Pivot. If he's a scratch, Taysom Hill's target share becomes even more absurd.
Charles Cross	SEA	OUT	Official: Hamstring. Missed practice all week.	Geno Smith Downgrade. Seattle’s blindside is highly vulnerable today.
Jalen Carter	PHI	Active	Medical Fact: Returning from a two-game absence. No designation.	Boost PHI DST. Huge for stopping James Cook and the Buffalo interior run game.
Sauce Gardner	IND	Active	Official: Returning from injury. Full practice Friday.	Avoid WRs vs Sauce. Major boost to the Colts secondary against the Jags.

== First Reaction from Saturday Game results ==

HOU at LAR

-- The Chargers gave up two long TD passes in the first 5+ minutes of the game, dug themselves a 14-0 hole...then totally outplayed Houston, for the most part, for the final 54+ minutes, but a comedy errors cost them the win and any shot at the AFC West title or #1 seed.

The game was turned by penalties throughout, especially against the Chargers late. I can’t tell you who the better team was overall...the refs were the prominent feature throughout. It was the kind of game that would make you hate the sport. Sad.

-- The Chargers have basic seeding they can play for in Week 18, which they should absolutely NOT do...instead they should sit all their starters and get/stay healthy for the playoffs. But they probably won’t. One of the spawns of Harbaugh will come up with some stupid motivational reason or movie analogy why they should all play Week 18.

If the Chargers lay down Week 18...Denver is probably gonna be the #1 seed in the AFC...but they could barely handle Chris Oludokon this week, so...

-- The Chargers are not going anywhere in the playoffs with their terrible (injured) O-Line.

Next year, Chargers. Next year.

-- The Texans are still alive for the AFC South title with this win, but in the process knocked the Colts out of the playoffs...a team who now faces AFC South leader Jacksonville Week 17. All the Jags need to do now is win out...against IND and then TEN. Not layups...especially the way ‘desperate’ or ‘highly motivated’ (by their playoff chase) teams are playing so far this week.

I have a lot of ‘Texans to win the division’ bets going/still alive, so I am a big non-Jags from here.

-- I’m not sure Philip Rivers plays the whole game Sunday/Week 17, or at all. And I highly doubt they would throw him out there vs. a motivated Texans team in Week 18. It makes no sense for multiple reasons.

But...

BAL at GB

-- And now to the game that has me wondering about changing everything about my scouting and formulas this offseason, or just quitting the football business entirely. When in actuality, I should be coming off a late-night party/celebration of the special King Henry moment. I and many of you own a ton of Derrick Henry, one of the building blocks of our 2025 redraft, our major move of March/Spring 2024 in Dynasty...and we got 45.6 PPR points from the king during title week.

I know everybody is going to chuckle and go ‘see, dumb Ravens offensive coordinator, that’s all you had to do!’. And all is forgotten/forgiven now.

If I were the owner of the Ravens, after watching this game, I don’t care if I’m still in the playoff hunt -- I fire the offensive coordinator today. Because if it was that simple...well, obviously he was too stupid to realize simplicity all season -- just like 99% of the offensive coordinators I’ve watched and studied for over a decade now. I don’t give that guy one more chance to mess this up Week 18 (if the game matters)...because if you think he’s learned his lesson, I guarantee you he has not.

Yes, we got an FF-title winning event Saturday night. I’ve never been on the good side of one of these crazy title week player outputs in my life. Now, I’m swimming in it. It feels good...but you know what would have been better? If your stupid ass offensive coordinator did this last week too. I got a lot of FF teams who died Week 16...ones that would have really enjoyed some version of this Week 17 event. And I got a lot of FF-teams who barely got to the playoffs, and lost in the playoffs the prior two weeks, and some FF-teams that just missed the playoffs entirely -- all because ALL SEASON you Ravens coaches have been complete idiots with Derrick Henry.

I look like the fool most of Weeks 1-16 for pushing Henry again while the coaches were trying to ‘spread it around’...great, this week they finally fixed it and a handful of FF-teams that slipped past to Week 17 are now likely to win FF-titles. I can’t even really enjoy it because I think of all the teams that could’ve won FF-titles if NFL head coaches and their assistants weren’t such blathering idiots.

Those football people are not special...but the masses treat them like they are holy entities. I’ve been around them for years. It’s like any workplace...1-2 key people/great employees with a bunch mediocrity surrounding them they have navigate through...and usually with a terrible boss/head coach that does more restricting of talent than helping/creating...typical corporate bosses spend all their time trying to figure out some program or acronym designed to try to squeeze another ounce out of their terrible or mediocre ‘team’/employees, and the bosses do it while being resentful at the handful of stars they do have.

I will never forget working corporate operations management to see it all firsthand 2 decades ago. I lucked into a promotion to be the district manager of a territory that was perpetually struggling but had the company’s top salesman 2-years running, top-5 for several years (out of hundreds of salespeople).

My new boss made sure I knew that salesperson was lazy (his opinion) because he didn’t make as many ‘contacts’ per week (going business to business) and he didn’t stay much past 5pm, so he was deemed lazy. We had two other young salespeople who my boss beamed about because they were national leaders in ‘knocking on doors’, trying to get business...didn’t matter that they never sold anything, and that they were awful salespeople -- my boss only cared that they (seemingly) really tried hard according to the company guidelines...per my boss who was never in sales in his life, and would fail if he was.

One year in to my ‘reign’, they were about to consider firing my top salesman guy because he would not log in his contacts day-to-day and he wasn’t taking as many meetings as the others did (on paper)...no one cared that he was still tops in the company in sales by a mile (because he worked smart and made REAL contacts the others could never in his off hours life). They tried to force my top salesman to follow the corporate sales guidelines for years, so he could be a better salesperson (even though he was at the top for years).

So, one day...he quit.

Then everyone and their brother flew in to try to get him to stay. They ended up agreeing for him to be a part-time hours salesperson (for more time off), with a raise...and he didn’t have to come to the office anymore (before that was a thing). But he kept his full benefits. And an expensive sales manager would fly from Dallas to Little Rock Arkansas to completely falsify the ‘Monday Sales Contact’ reports we sent to corporate, he flew in to create the false records at his computer so he was complaint with ‘GE’s’ (when they were the most respected company in the world) reporting mandates. Why were they chasing him around for 5+ years torturing him with all these programs and restrictions, and then ultimately giving him more leeway than any employee in the company?

Because they are idiots.

Why did Bill Belichick chase off Tom Brady...Bill thought he was the main reason why they were a success. He was wrong (choosing between the two).

I’m so shocked GE crumbled soon after...I saw it coming firsthand. The world celebrated GE as the greatest run company on earth for decades. When actually, it was the worse...and Jack Welch was near a total fraud, but I’ll be some of you have one of his books on management in a box somewhere that you bought back in the day.

Point being -- enjoy this Derrick Henry moment, those still alive Week 17...but my thoughts, my sheer raging, seething anger is for all the FF teams with Henry who didn’t get to Week 17 to enjoy this moment.

The NFL, like every big/mega corporation outside of a few, is filled with idiots and halfwits and people who are awful at their jobs...just like all our workplaces and corporations...and governments. Nothing but morons, doing bare minimums, people on the take, people scared to do anything outside of expectations for fear of criticism.

WE ALL caused it, really.

All the ‘Nine’ MEMEs the moment a QB has a bad game...and the cutting social media remarks for everything instantly...all the criticism that gets back to the coaches and players and their families, etc., which forces them to play it safe to get away from the criticism -- we, the football public, have caused this weird cycle/work environment.

One of my jobs this offseason...really factoring more and more of the NFL’s complete ignorance and incompetence for all our football benefits/gain -- for FF and betting.

When I see Marvin Harrison get 2-3 targets on the 1st-drive today as Michael Wilson is getting nothing...I’m going to lose it all over again.

-- So, the Ravens win...which means the Steelers have something to play for today. If Pitt wins today, they win the AFC North. If they lose today, it’s winner take all vs. the Ravens Week 18.

-- Five games have been played so far this week.

Five underdog covers.

I will never ever bet or pick (ATS) a favorite ever again. More on that very real plan this offseason...a plan I’ve been testing for weeks.

You think the teams with everything to play for are automatically going to crush the opponent who has nothing to play for because of ‘motivations’? It doesn’t work that way in the NFL. It makes the team with everything on the line tend to play scared, nervous about losing the opportunity they have...not trying to win, just trying not to lose.

== Latest Weather Issues for Sunday ==

Game	Kickoff	Condition	Wind (Gusts)	Strategic Impact & Fade Alert
PIT @ CLE	1:00 PM	Heavy Rain (50%)	15-20 (30) mph	HIGH RISK. Off and on rain. Not too cold (40-50 degrees) but windy.
PHI @ BUF	4:25 PM	Moderate Rain (50-80%)	5-10 (0) mph	MODERATE. A "Flood Watch" is in effect for the region. It will be sloppy. 35-40 degrees
ARI @ CIN	1:00 PM	Wind / Sprinkles (10%)	18 (35) mph	HIGH WIND. The rain is light, but 30+ mph gusts but 60-70 degrees.
NO @ TEN	1:00 PM	Gusty Winds	15 (30) mph	MODERATE. 60-70 degrees...warm and windy.
NEP @ NYJ	1:00 PM	Late Rain (5-20%)	5 mph	LOW. Mostly cold (30s). Rain myabe hits in the 4th quarter or post-game.

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.

So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 11 WRs (8 teams in)

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Tee Higgins, Rome Odunze, Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Cedric Tillman, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Luther Burden (too soon to think to advance), Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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==========================

12/27 SAT

(7:58amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Game Report day...a lot of game reports planned to post.

Week 17 projections update planned for 4-6pmET (trying before the 430p game, depending on injury info coming in) and then maybe an update late night after the Ravens win/lose to affect the Steelers Sunday.

FFM News items

Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see.

== SAT GAMES PREVIEW ==

HOU at LAC

What’s at stake:

The Houston Texans: The Fight for the South

Houston enters today at 10-5, riding a seven-game winning streak.

If the Texans WIN:

Current: They clinched a playoff berth immediately.
Future: They keep pressure on the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) for the AFC South. If Jacksonville loses to Indy on Sunday, Houston moves into a first-place tie for the division heading into Week 18.

If the Texans LOSE:

Current: They remain at 10-6 and their playoff probability drops to roughly 93%. They are not eliminated, but they fail to clinch today.
Future: If the Colts (8-7) win on Sunday, the Texans could face a "Win or Go Home" scenario in Week 18 against Indianapolis for the final wild-card spot.

The LA Chargers: The Hunt for the West

The Chargers are 11-4 and have already clinched a playoff spot, but their seeding is incredibly volatile.

If the Chargers WIN:

Current: They move to 12-4 and maintain a chance at the #1 overall seed in the AFC (requiring help from Denver and New England losses).
Future: Most importantly, a win today sets up a Winner-Take-All game for the AFC West in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos. If they win out, Jim Harbaugh takes the division in year one.

If the Chargers LOSE:

Current: They fall to 11-5 and are officially relegated to a Wild Card berth. They would be eliminated from winning the AFC West (as Denver holds the tiebreaker).
Future: They would likely be locked into the #5 or #6 seed, meaning they will be traveling on the road for the entire duration of the playoffs.

What the Hivemind thinks (Gemini consolidation thought):

The Prediction: Texans Win (24–21)

I’m sticking with the Texans for the upset, but for the correct reasons: the Chargers' offensive line is in a state of emergency. With both starting tackles (Slater/Alt) and backup Jamaree Salyer ruled out, Justin Herbert will be under constant siege from the Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter duo. While Herbert is elite under pressure, Houston's defensive front has the highest sack-rate in the league over the last month, which will stall the Chargers' drives in the red zone.

Key Fantasy Factors

The New RB1: Omarion Hampton / Kimani Vidal. Rookie Omarion Hampton is the likely lead back. If Vidal sits, Hampton is a high-upside volume play in a run-heavy Harbaugh scheme.
The Sack Parade: Start Will Anderson Jr. in all IDP formats. He’s facing third-string protection.
Dalton Schultz (The Safety Valve): Expect C.J. Stroud to lean on Schultz (6+ catches) to negate the Chargers' pass rush.
C.J. Stroud: Safe floor, but don’t expect a 300-yard day without starting OT Trent Brown protecting his blindside.

RC projection:

To me, this is a battle of two great defenses...Houston ‘maybe’ is the better defense of the two, but the Chargers not far behind. Did you know there is only one defense that has more picks than TDs allowed in the passing game? The defense that had been the only one in that category most of this season was the Texans but they are now dead even 17 TDs/17 INTs...it is the Chargers as the lone team with more picks than TDs allowed 14 TDs/17 INTs.

Houston has a top 12 run defense, Chargers middle of the pack...but that’s season long numbers. If you focus on the last 7 or so weeks, that script has flipped...and the Chargers are top 12 and Texans middle of the road+.

Similar defenses, similar O-Line issues...all banged up and are our internal #4 and #5 worst O-Line grades of the past 5 weeks. Virtually tied/even. The Texans are losing two key OLs for this game...the Chargers are used to their devastated O-Line and are actually slightly improving with it.

To me, this game is -- similar Ds, similar OL issues, but then the best QB in the league...what could be the league MVP if they win out, Justin Herbert is better than one of the worst QBs in the NFL (C.J. Stroud). Stroud is one of the only QBs that I watch every week, and I think does not belong in the ‘everybody can play QB in this era’ group...it’s been that bad.

I think the Chargers out-fox, out-everything Houston here.

GB at BAL

What’s at stake:

The Baltimore Ravens (7-8): The "Division or Dust" Path

As you correctly noted, the Ravens have no Wild Card path. Their postseason existence depends entirely on winning the AFC North.

If the Ravens WIN:

Current: They survive. They move to 8-8 and remain mathematically alive for the AFC North title for exactly 17 more hours.
Future (Week 18): If the Browns beat the Steelers on Sunday, the Ravens enter Week 18 with a chance to win the division by beating Pittsburgh. If the Steelers win Sunday, the Ravens are eliminated regardless of tonight's result.

If the Ravens LOSE:

Current: ELIMINATION. Their season is over the moment the clock hits 0:00.
Future: It would trigger their first losing season since 2021 and could lead to major off-season questions about the roster construction around a late-season injured Lamar Jackson.

The Green Bay Packers (9-5-1): The Seeding Shuffle

Green Bay clinched a playoff spot on Thursday (via Detroit's loss), so tonight is about home-field advantage and the path of least resistance.

If the Packers WIN:

Current: They move to 10-5-1 and remain alive for the NFC North title.
Future: To win the division, they would still need the Bears to lose out (vs. 49ers, vs. Lions). More practically, a win tonight likely secures the #6 seed, which means they would likely travel to play the NFC South winner (Panthers) or the 49ers rather than the juggernaut #2 seed (likely Chicago).

If the Packers LOSE:

Current: They fall to 9-6-1 and the Chicago Bears clinch the NFC North.
Future: Green Bay would almost certainly be locked into the #7 seed. This guarantees a road trip to play the #2 seed in the Wild Card round—the very scenario Matt LaFleur is desperate to avoid.

What the Hivemind thinks (GEMINI consolidation of the universe thoughts):

The Prediction: Packers Win (20–17)

Expect a grind-it-out defensive battle in the Lambeau cold. The Packers are the pick to win, primarily due to home-field advantage and a more stable rushing attack. While Malik Willis (Shoulder/Illness) is a step down from Love, he has been efficient in this system. Baltimore is playing for their season, but without Lamar Jackson, their offense becomes one-dimensional. The Packers' defense, even without Micah Parsons, should do enough to contain Tyler Huntley and force the field goal battle that Matt LaFleur usually wins in December.

Key Fantasy Factors

Derrick Henry is the Entire Offense: With Huntley starting, the Ravens will lean on Henry for 20+ carries. He is a high-floor RB1 tonight.
Josh Jacobs (The Workhorse): Completely cleared of his knee/ankle issues. With Willis limited, Jacobs will be the focal point of the Packers' game plan.
Fade the Pass-Catchers: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Zay Flowers all see their ceilings crater with backup QBs. Flowers is a "Volume Flex" at best; Reed is a risky start given Willis's shoulder.
Ravens DST: A sneaky-good play. If Willis is erratic or if Green Bay turns to Clayton Tune, Baltimore’s veteran secondary could rack up turnovers.

RC projection:

There’s little precedent to project a Willis v. Huntley game. Neither QB is very good...both may end up running for more yards than they pass for. Both teams want to run behind their main RB as it is, they’ll likely do that here against stacked boxes and the RB that gets the big breakaway run and/or the QB who makes a lucky play action deep throw connection wins the game.

Under normal circumstances, this would be close...lean Green Bay as better overall team, but the Packers have a ton of injuries bringing them down to the Ravens level this particular week. I have no real strong feeling on this game. My gut tells me in a battle of stacked-box-run-games with backup QBs...you should lean with Derrick Henry every time...but the Ravens offensive coordinator is such an immense idiot that Henry will likely be reduced for ‘clever’ other plays too often, and the Ravens blow it like they have several games this year by going away from Henry.

== Key Injury Updates (GEMINI commentary) ==

Player / Unit	Team	Status	Medical Expert Insight (Chao/Morse)	Fantasy Strategy & Quotes
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	Questionable	Dr. Morse: "Late-week groin injuries for TEs are brutal because they can't explode off the line or pivot on routes."	The "Panic" Pivot: Popped up Friday in practice. Fannin says he "plans to play," but Stefanski was far more cautious. If he's out, Cleveland's pass game is dead.
T.J. Watt	PIT	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Lung surgery recovery is about oxygen capacity. Even if he feels 'fine,' the medical risk of re-collapse is too high."	Major Downgrade PIT DST. Without Watt, the Steelers' pressure rate drops nearly 12%. This is a lifeline for Shedeur Sanders.
Jordan Love	GB	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Failing to clear concussion protocol by Friday means he wasn't passing the exercise stress tests. This was predictable."	Bench All GB Passers. Malik Willis starts. Expect a 1980s-style run-heavy script. Bench Reed/Watson unless you have no choice.
Lane Johnson	PHI	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Foot injuries for elite tackles are about the 'anchor.' If he can't plant, he can't stop a bull rush. DNP all week is a bad sign."	Slight Saquon Fade. Fred Johnson starts. This hurts the "tush push" and right-side efficiency in a slippery Buffalo game.
George Kittle	SF	Questionable	Dr. Morse: "Mid-to-low ankle sprain. DNP all week. I’d be shocked if he has any lateral explosiveness if he even suits up."	Nightmare Scenario. Sunday Night game. If you don't have a backup, you could be facing a zero.
Lamar Jackson	BAL	Doubtful	Dr. Morse: "Back contusions limit the 'twitch' needed for his rushing style. Doubtful almost always means OUT."	Confirmed Bench. Tyler Huntley starts Saturday night. Expect heavy Derrick Henry volume to protect the backup QB.
Dylan Sampson	CLE	Questionable	Dr. Morse: "A club on the hand makes it impossible to switch the ball to the outside arm. Watch for fumbles in the rain."	RB2 with Risk. Stefanski says he "looks good," but the padding will limit his pass-catching utility entirely.
Maxx Crosby	LV	OUT	Medical Fact: Ruled out Friday due to a lingering knee injury.	Major Boost NYG RBs. Without Crosby's edge setting, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has a much higher ceiling.
Coby Bryant	SEA	OUT	Medical Fact: Knee injury sustained in Week 16. Ruled out for Sunday.	Boost CAR WRs. Seattle's secondary is thinning out. High-upside for Tetairoa McMillan.
Charles Cross	SEA	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Hamstring issues for LT are about the 'kick-step.' Missing two weeks means it's likely a Grade 2."	Downgrade Darnold. blindside is vulnerable against a desperate Carolina front.
Trent Brown	HOU	OUT	Dr. Chao: "Huge loss. Stroud's blindside is now a revolving door."	Avoid Texans Passers. C.J. Stroud’s time-to-throw will be significantly shortened.
Zach Tom	GB	Doubtful	Dr. Morse: "Back/Knee DNP all week. Combine this with backup QB Willis, and the line is a sieve."	Boost Ravens DST. The Ravens should dominate the line of scrimmage against a patchwork GB line.

Key Defensive Casualties (Added)

Maxx Crosby (LV - OUT): This is a rare absence for the "Iron Man." The Raiders' defense loses its motor.
T.J. Edwards (CHI - Questionable): Dealing with a glute injury.
Nahshon Wright (CHI - Questionable): Dealing with a hamstring AND illness. The Bears' secondary depth is being tested by a "locker room bug."
Teair Tart (LAC - Questionable): Groin injury. His absence would soften the interior for Houston's run game.

== Weather Issue Updates ==

For today’s games and any Sunday concerns...

Game	Kickoff (ET)	Conditions	Wind	Strategic Impact & Expert Quotes
HOU @ LAC	Sat 4:30 PM	DOME	N/A	Zero Risk. Perfect for C.J. Stroud vs. Justin Herbert.
BAL @ GB	Sat 8:00 PM	Cold / Overcast (38°F)	5 mph	Minimal. Cold is a factor for ball hardness, but no wind/snow concerns.
PIT @ CLE	Sun 1:00 PM	RAIN (50-75% chance)	15 +/- mph	MODERATE. Expect 3+ quarters of rain.
PHI @ BUF	Sun 4:25 PM	Rain all game (70-90% chance)	5-10 mph	MODERATE. The 50mph gusts are gone. It's now just a chilly, wet "Sloppy Bowl."
ARI @ CIN	Sun 1:00 PM	Warm Rain (70% chance)	10 mph	LOW. 65°F rain is a non-factor for grip compared to freezing rain.

-- FFM Internal Offensive Line Grade Trends (last 5 weeks)...

Top 5 Best:

1) LAR

2) BUF

3) BAL

4) ATL

5) TB

Top 5 Worst:

1) CLE

2) LV

3) NYJ

4) HOU

5) LAC

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 10 WRs (7 teams in)

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Tee Higgins, Rome Odunze, Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Luther Burden (too soon to think to advance), Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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==================

12/26 FRI

(8:08amET)

-- Today’s Agenda...

Game Reports that we have.

FFM News briefs throughout the day.

Week 17 projections update planned approx. 8-10pm to allow for the West Coast injury reports.

Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.

== TNF First Reactions... ==

https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/2004225231146332526?s=43

DAL-WSH

-- You do all that study all season, and all the lineup consternations for weeks, including free agent nights planning and maneuvering...all to get yourself to the title game...and then Chris Rodriquez gets sick and listed questionable, a lot of us jumped on JCM for a ‘gamble’ start, and POW...you might have won a title (or lost it to your opponent) all because Chris Rodriguez got sick ‘day of’ the game.

I would like to crow about my JCM scouting love, but we’ll save that for another day...what I need to say/remind us of: this could happen to any player at any time on Saturday or Sunday or Monday. In this title week, you need to have an actual or mental plan of how you would deal with a sickness hitting any one of your players.

And if you had players from Thursday in your Flex...I don’t even know what to tell you this many weeks and years in. Your lineup needs to be as flexible as possible for just these types of events. It is cold and flu season. Don’t let off the gas this close to the finish line. Outthink your opponent.

-- I didn’t even realize Malik Davis had 100+ yards rushing in this game as well, until I looked at the box score later in the day.

Every team has 2-3 guys at RB that could run for 100+ yards in an NFL game if given the chance.

...and every QB is now good. There are rare few ‘bad’ QBs.

...and most every team has 2-3 #1 WR talents now.

It’s a new era of football, of Fantasy Football.

And we’re about to start NFL Draft scouting studies on the next crop of superior talent to get dumped into the pond. And overstocked pond.

Here’s is a short video that captures the essence of talent in, and soon to hit, the NFL: https://youtu.be/O1hCLBTD5RM?si=BLA81DDA_dHOSLWJ

Inflation is hitting everything...even football talent. Your dollar/your current football player isn’t worth as much as he was last year....and will be worth less this time next year, and so-on.

https://x.com/nfl_researcher/status/2004249502266380313?s=43

DET-MIN

-- Ladies and Gentleman...your last place in the NFC North Detroit Lions.

A game the Lions absolutely had to have...and they lost, embarrassingly so...to an opposing QB who threw for 51 yards passing for the entire game. https://x.com/42cyc/status/2004349992811835677?s=43

The Lions era ended this season/this game. Yes, I know they have a lot of injuries...so do the Vikings. Detroit is just not good enough to get to the next level. They got so close, but I think they olden days Utah Jazz’d themselves out of existence. https://x.com/janikeckardt/status/2004351995650650342?s=43

It will be interesting to see if they start tearing things down to rebuild it...or if they do the typical NFL team -- just stick with the same old cast and hope more practices and more grit will get them over. https://x.com/jumosq/status/2004339150250824070?s=43

-- This game/season for Detroit should create an extra vote for Ben Johnson for Coach of the Year. https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2004353340604354629?s=43

-- When things get tough for the Lions, they do not turn to Jameson Williams (2-37-0/3) for help. We may have seen a glimpse of the future in this game...the rise of Isaac TeSlaa as more important to Goff than Jamo.

-- ‘Never bench your studs’...that axiom killed how many of us on Justin Jefferson the past 7 weeks? He’s about to end the season with 2 TDs...and about 750 different commercial appearances.

‘Never bench your studs’? What even is a ‘stud’ in the future in the NFL/FF? Everything is up for debate every week based on the injury reports/situations.

https://x.com/briskerszn/status/2004350505724813485?s=43

DEN-KC

-- Denver produced arguably the most pathetic performance of Christmas day...in a sea of bad football. https://x.com/notjdaigle/status/2004405338523767230?s=43

KC has so many players out with injury...and yet this patchwork squad outplayed the supposed #1 seed in the AFC. Denver has let the Chargers into the race for the division AND also for the #1 seed.

If there is any football justice in the world, the Chargers will win Week 17 over Houston and make the LAC at DEN Week 18 game for all the marbles.

If LAC wins Week 17, and NE somehow loses this week or next -- the Chargers are the #1 seed if they then beat Denver Week 18.

-- RJ Harvey caught the game winning TD pass...his 12th TD on the season...leading all rookies...and yet he can’t get any heat for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Maybe if TreVeyon and Jeanty flop Week 17, and the Saints (Shough) lose to the Titans, and if Tet gets blanked by Seattle’s secondary...then maybe RJH could get into the upper tier going into Week 18? It could help that he will potentially play a marquee game Week 18 with LAC at DEN.

How Emeka Egbuka is ahead of Harvey for OROY by a massive amount is mind-blowing.

https://x.com/aricdilalla/status/2004405931883536576?s=43

Christmas 2025:

https://x.com/johnewing/status/2004402043931230490?s=43

I’m never betting on a favorite for the rest of my life.

== Weather issue check ==

Game	Kickoff (ET)	Forecast Detail	Wind Impact
PHI @ BUF	4:25 PM	Rain (91% chance). Chilly (41°F).	5-10 mph (Gusts to 15)
PIT @ CLE	1:00 PM	Steady Rain (94% chance). Cold (44°F).	15–20 mph (Sustained)
BAL @ GB (Sat)	8:00 PM	Foggy & Bitter Cold (37°F).	Light (5–10 mph)
ARI @ CIN	1:00 PM	Rain Showers (70% chance). Warm (65°F).	10–15 mph
NE @ NYJ	1:00 PM	Clear / Cold (33°F).	Minimal (3–5 mph)

The Steelers-Bengals game is becoming the real top weather concern (for performance).

The really bad weather in Buffalo continues to trend towards Monday.

== Injury updates ==

Player	Team	Status	Official Friday/Thursday Update
Lamar Jackson	BAL	Doubtful	DNP all week. Official designation is Doubtful. Tyler Huntley is preparing to start Saturday night.
Jordan Love	GB	Questionable	LP all week. Still in concussion protocol as of Friday morning. Needs final clearance to play Saturday.
Malik Willis	GB	Questionable	Missed Wednesday (Illness), LP Thursday. Dealing with a right shoulder injury + illness.
Dylan Sampson	CLE	Questionable	LP Wed/Thu. Practicing with a protective hand club. Expected to play but volume depends on ball security.
David Njoku	CLE	DNP	DNP Wed/Thu. Missed Week 16 and has yet to practice this week. Highly unlikely to play Sunday.
Lane Johnson	PHI	DNP	DNP Wed/Thu. Has not practiced since Nov 16 (Foot). Reports of him trending to play were premature; he remains sidelined.
T.J. Watt	PIT	Limited	LP Wed/Thu. Returning from lung surgery. On track to play Sunday after two straight days of participation.
Zach Tom	GB	Questionable	DNP all week (Back/Knee). High risk of missing Saturday night's game.
Sean Rhyan	GB	Questionable	DNP Thursday. Dealing with a knee injury and the illness sweeping the GB locker room.
Mekhi Becton	LAC	Questionable	Full Practice Thursday. Trending toward playing Saturday against Houston.
Jamaree Salyer	LAC	OUT	DNP all week. Ruled out for Saturday.
John Williams	GB	OUT	DNP all week. Officially ruled out for Saturday.
Charles Cross	SEA	DNP	DNP Wed/Thu (Hamstring). Did not play Week 16 and is trending toward another absence.
Coby Bryant	SEA	DNP	DNP Wed/Thu (Knee). Likely out for Sunday.
Trevin Wallace	CAR	DNP	DNP Thursday (Shoulder). Key defensive starter for Carolina.
Tershawn Wharton	CAR	DNP	DNP Thursday (Hamstring).
Jalen Ramsey	MIA	DNP	DNP Thursday (Illness). Monitor his status for Sunday; trending toward a game-time decision.
Nick Herbig	PIT	Limited	LP Wed/Thu. On track to return Sunday to bolster the Steelers' pass rush.
A.J. Brown	PHI	DNP	DNP Thursday. (Wisdom teeth surgery). Expected to return to practice Friday and play Sunday.

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 8 WRs (6 teams in)

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Tetairoa McMillan, Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Rome Odunze, Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Luther Burden (too soon to think to advance), Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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===================

12/25 THU

==MERRY CHRISTMAS==

(7:00amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Game Reports out today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.

Week 17 projections update after 7pm+...when we see which way the DET-MINN game is going, which has some ramifications ahead.

FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.

Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.

*NO Christmas special video stream* Too much on my schedule today, but mostly because I have been incredibly sick for 2+ days now with 100+ degree temps. My body is not dealing with a cold/flu-like event like it used to...given the hormone therapies I’ve been taking. I have to be careful.

-- As noted the last couple days, you can email me your matchups or sit-start dilemmas. Check for my post on how to do that if needed.

A lot of twists this week because if Baltimore loses, the Steelers on Sunday will be completely different...and led by Mason Rudolph.

Based on SEA and SF outcomes on Sunday, the Rams don’t have much to play for on Monday...or have EVERYTHING to play for.

-- I want to quick preview today’s games (a pathetic tripleheader)...

DAL-WSH

Looks like Dallas is gonna try to play it normal but will be a bit protective of Javonte Williams with his neck injury, like they did some last week. Lamb and Pickens and Dak likely have their normal crush day.

Washington is still playing like they have a shot to get in the playoffs, so no ‘developing’ any players. It’s normal rotations...

Three-headed Backfield led by Chris Rodriguez.

Josh Johnson is a D-grade QB...facing a F-grade pass defense in Dallas. Not sure who wins out there, but everyone can play QB now...and if that is true, might be decent numbers from Washington side in this game in a possible shootout

Deebo Samuel has incentives he is paying for...he’d be the WR to have of the group.

DET-MIN

This could be a shootout potential too. The Lions with everything to play for to stay alive for the playoffs. The Vikings get to .500 with a win.

I don’t think Max Brosmer is terrible, but he is less than JJM right now. Brosmer seems to be locked in out Justin Jefferson.

The Lions’ offense needs to outscore its bad defense. The Vikings have a very good pass defense. It will probably lean towards a big Jahmyr Gibbs day. May not be the greatest day for ARSB or Jamo, but you have to put them out there and hope they are too good for the stingy Vikings pass defense.

KC-DEN

This could be very ugly. It’s the wrong time in the wrong spot for this depleted KC team to take on Denver...BUT...

Denver will score a lot of points...and who gets all the FF goodness is a mystery because this could be more of a scrimmage game against a weak opponent. They can spread it around some as the game unfolds if they have a growing lead.

I don’t want ANYTHING from KC for FF.

Who is gonna win the Super Bowl?

https://x.com/pff_nicky/status/2003504099124478218?s=43

Game	Time (ET)	Conditions	Wind
DAL @ WAS	1:00 PM	Partly Cloudy / Mild (52°F)	8 mph
DET @ MIN	4:30 PM	DOME (U.S. Bank Stadium)	N/A
DEN @ KC	8:15 PM	Unseasonably Warm (61°F)	7 mph

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 6 WRs (5 teams in)

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Tetairoa McMillan, Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

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12/24 WED

=HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVE=

(8:22amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.

Week 17 projections update 7-9pmET approx.

Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.

Any betting action to start the week.

== Tuesday night free agency/waivers commentary/notes (national overview) ==

*I will open up the email sit-start help offer today/after waivers runs TUE night/WED morning. That post will go up in a bit.

-- The DSTs were 1-2-3 in volume of pickup, for obvious reasons. Many stream DSTs and this being title week, obviously everyone is going after upgrade DSTs for the week. What was strange...the Pats were #1, to be expected, but I was surprised by how much the Lions were so close to the Pats for #1.

There is so much Max Brosmer hate and quips in the media...it’s driving people to a completely awful Lions defense. Even when I run injury reports through Gemini...which is just a consolidation of the collective hivemind...A.I. makes jokes about Max Brosmer.

Let me show you...

I asked Gemini this morning: what do you think is the Fantasy Football outlook for Week 17 for using Max Brosmer and the Lions DST for this title week?

Its answer:

For your championship-week strategy at Fantasy Football Metrics, the matchup between Max Brosmer and the Lions DST is a textbook case of "unstoppable force meets immovable object"—but in reverse.

Here is the breakdown for the Christmas Day kickoff:

Max Brosmer (QB, Vikings) Outlook

Starting Max Brosmer in a championship game is essentially playing "fantasy roulette." While he was efficient in relief last week (7-of-9 for 52 yards), his only previous NFL start was a catastrophe.

The Seattle Scar: In his first start (Week 13), Brosmer threw 4 interceptions and took 4 sacks in a 26-0 shutout loss.
The "Slow" Approach: Kevin O’Connell has emphasized that Brosmer is focusing on playing "slow" and staying on schedule. This translates to high-percentage, short-area passes and checkdowns to Aaron Jones.
Offensive Line Crisis: The Vikings will be without their Pro Bowl Center Ryan Kelly (Concussion), and RT Brian O'Neill (Heel) is heavily limited. Brosmer will be facing interior pressure from a Lions front that is fighting for their playoff life.
Fantasy Verdict: SIT. He has a basement-level floor. Even with Justin Jefferson, Brosmer's lack of arm strength and the likelihood of turnovers makes him a massive liability. (he doesn’t have a lack of arm strength)

Lions DST Outlook

The Lions' defense has been porous lately, giving up 27+ points in five straight games. However, for Week 17, they are the #1 streaming target in the league.

The "Brosmer" Multiplier: Defense/Special Teams value is driven by sacks and turnovers. Brosmer’s 4-INT game against Seattle proves he is prone to "catastrophic" mistakes when pressured.
Interior Advantage: With Vikings center Ryan Kelly out, the Lions' pass rush (ranked 7th in sacks per game) should have a field day up the middle.
Must-Win Motivation: Detroit needs this win to stay in the playoff hunt. Expect a "kitchen sink" defensive approach from Aaron Glenn, featuring heavy blitz packages to confuse the rookie. (notice this error...the D-C is not Glenn)
Fantasy Verdict: MUST-START. They are a Top 3 DST play this week. The "Sack + Interception" ceiling is higher for the Lions than almost any other unit on the slate.

This is the vibe out there and football society is acting accordingly. Blindly following ‘the herd’. If/when we lose free speech in America and the world...we’re all screwed.

I don’t think Brosmer is a star right now and I’m not saying he shouldn’t be targeted with a DST, but he is being judged from one event that wasn’t as bad as people think...and totally looking past how awful the Lions defense is.

We do all realize that if the Vikings win this game...they get to .500 and send Detroit to last place in the NFC North?

*Actual players not DSTs...

Taysom Hill was the #1 player grabbed in free agency, as projected. https://x.com/coopafiasco/status/2003595604547764487?s=43

Dylan Sampson was #2, the top RB heat. Little-to-no heat for Raheim Sanders.

Parker Washington was #3, the top WR grab.

Brenton Strange was #4, as people try to swap out of mediocre TEs.

Michael Carter was #5...very strange to me, BUT there’s not much out there and he is the clear starter for Arizona...or was last week.

Tyler Shough has media momentum, because the Saints have won 3 in-a-row, which propelled him to the top of the QB desires.

= Interesting Tweet/X Collection for the Day...==

Big State Mike neutered: https://x.com/underdog/status/2003171177167298580?s=43

Maye v. Dart: https://x.com/nfloncbs/status/2003487335414129129?s=43

The times...they are a changin’: https://x.com/jasonrmcintyre/status/2003216068786159652?s=43

FACTS!!!

https://x.com/ihartitz/status/2003142661314838813?s=43

https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/2003367310690779141?s=43

https://x.com/mikeherndonsk1/status/2003322951467405481?s=43

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 4 WRs (4 teams in)

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Khalil Shakir

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

====================

12/23 TUE

(8:57amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Week 17 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET

Part Two of the Executive Report for Week 16

Free Agent Snapshot/FAAB %s Report

Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET

Game Report/s today...as many as we can get out.

News & Notes throughout the day.

MNF First Reactions...

-- I don’t want to go too long on this ‘feeling’ here, but the more I watch Philip Rivers, and the whole Philip Rivers story and all its meaning, succeed in NFL games right now...the more of a joke I think the NFL coaches/coaching and training camps and practices are.

Coaches only get in the way of things. There are only a handful of head coaches who create/make things happen...but mostly its coaches are ‘destroyers of things’.

You could have practices to learn plays on a walkthrough, noncontact basis always.

Just test the players for physical conditioning constantly to make sure they are ready.

Practice tackling on high tech robots that are ‘spongy’ or covered in ‘nerf’ substance. Also practice blocking like that?? This is probably 2-3 years away...more advanced than those current mobile ‘tackling bags’ they designed a few years ago.

The players of the near future will be in the most extreme conditioning, size/speed, 7-on-7 reps...and will have had the least human contact of players ever, by far.

-- Kyle Shanahan is Coach of the Year if they win the NFC #1 seed. He and Ben Johnson have my vote. Mike Vrabel and Liam Coen and Dave Canales are also right there.

The fact that there are so many worthy Coach of the Year candidates shows you what a completely crazy season this was, unlike any other, a pivot point in NFL history/the future.

-- Brock Purdy is so very good but now that every QB is good...there's gonna be more and more ‘Purdy stories’ that it will be a watered-down story and no one care much about the actual Purdy now and especially into the future when more Purdy-stories hit.

If Purdy takes the 49ers to the Super Bowl, he has to be considered one of the greatest QBs in the game.

-- With the NFL changing so fast...a violent, sharp turn in its course of flow, production, talent levels, etc., FFM is going to change with it. We have to.

That’s not a statement of ‘Oh, this was a bad year for Fantasy so they better change’. This is actually turning out to be a decent FF season...coming on very strong, late -- it just went in directions I never saw it going, and I have been howling about all the change of directions the NFL is undertaking (not by plan, by ‘new realities’) for weeks/months now.

Consider Week 16 for FF, for FFM...a typical redraft strategy/outcome of a draft was: Derrick Henry, then Chase Brown, then Joe Burrow, then Jameson Williams...then go look at what that group did this week. A lot of Best Ball teams that couldn’t change their players all season had record setting Week 16s, at just the right time.

But aside from that, I...as an NFL/Draft/FF studier of things see my world is changing so fast...I see a vast opportunity to change with it where the people we play/bet against won’t change until it’s a season or seasons too late.

More on my planned changes to scouting, formatting, metrics, etc., when we get past Week 18/the regular season.

We have to erase everything we thought we knew about Fantasy and scouting and start with a blank slate. And I have been doing that and making new lists of ideas/changes for weeks now. It may be the single greatest opportunity I will have ever had...or I step on a landmine and destroy everything.

No pressure.

https://youtu.be/runhZw_5xjo?si=7K1Ma-Y-fjCa0O4c

‘Adapt or die’...my motto for 2026.

https://youtu.be/6eX3fiQLo84?si=IxXV9e-AAYA3FpET

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 3 WRs/3 teams in

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

Zay Flowers

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Marvin Harrison, Rashad Bateman, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor

*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app

*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting

12/22 MON

(5:06amET)

-- Today's Agenda...

Unsure when the first game report will post Monday due to a travel day but it will be evening time ET (early or late).

I’m working on the Executive Report all day (and all late last night) ahead of MNF...planned to post ‘unknown’ due to the travel. Could be 6-8pmET...could be 8-11pmET. I might post part of it early (three things)...then the 2nd-half (5 players) of it later. Screwy schedule today due to the medical events with my father and travel home day.

MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.

-- Jacksonville trip update...

My dad is doing much better. He was gonna have surgery, then not...then back on...then no. He had a bad infection from his millionth kidney stone in his life, causing kidney function issues and overall bad sickness due to the infection. He was in real bad shape Friday night into Saturday...before we knew it was a kidney stone that started this, there were some real fears/speculations what was happening.

Once they figured out what was going on he got on the right meds to knock out the infection and he made a dramatic improvement...but stuck in the hospital monitoring his kidneys and dealing with his infection issues and debating surgery to remove stones or wait (bad to do it with an infection in the area).

We brought Christmas to him Saturday night. The whole family surprised him and brought his gifts over for him to open and have time with all of us. As bad/odd as the whole situation was for him...that was actually a great moment for the entire three generations of family there focused on him, and with him feeling much better to be able to enjoy it.

Monday they are set to release him on meds, to travel home (by car with his wife...15 hours, two-day trip...like me, he hates to fly)...IF he can clear all his vitals and is feeling better, etc.

Once that’s settled, I’m headed home from Jacksonville...could be leaving Duval at 7am...could be leaving 11amET, we’ll see. Could be home/back to work in the afternoon or past dinnertime. I hate not knowing my schedule and being out of my element, but it is all out of my element right now. Sometimes life deals you curveballs.

We’re back to normal all week Christmas week...Tuesday Night Waivers/Free Agent show, etc. Potentially a Christmas morning video ahead of the tripleheader. And my email will be open for questions/scenarios/sanity checks as we do each title week season...and Lamar and TreVeyon changed trajectories of the week for quite a few people, most good...some bad.

Thank you all for your prayers and well-wishes. We dodged a bullet this weekend!

-- Injuries from Sunday roundup (a Gemini report with the doctor citations/opinions)...

Player	Injury	The "X-Doctor" Take	Missed Time Projection
Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE)	Fractured Fibula / Dislocated Ankle	Dr. Morse: Confirmed season-ending. Mechanically similar to the Chris Godwin injury. High risk for 2026 PUP start.	OUT for season.
J.J. McCarthy (QB, MIN)	Right Hand (Fracture Concern)	Jeff Mueller: Monster hit by Brian Burns. Mechanism suggests possible metacarpal fracture. Needs imaging.	Likely OUT Week 17.
Ryan Flournoy (WR, DAL)	Knee (Non-Contact/Hyperextension)	Dr. Chao: Mechanism of injury in the first half looked "concerning for ACL/Meniscus." Expect an MRI Monday.	Likely OUT for season.
Jordan Mason (RB, MIN)	Ankle (High Ankle Mechanism)	Jeff Mueller: Defender landed on the back of the leg. Classic high-ankle sprain mechanism. Hard to return in 7 days.	Doubtful for Week 17.
Ryan Kelly (C, MIN)	Concussion (Recurrent)	Dr. Morse: His second stint in the protocol this year. Teams are extremely cautious with "repeaters" this late in the year.	1–2 Weeks.

Player	Injury	The "X-Doctor" Take (Morse/Chao/Mueller)	Missed Time Projection
Gardner Minshew (QB, KC)	Left Knee (ACL)	Adam Schefter/Jeff Mueller: Initial fear is a torn ACL. Non-contact mechanism while dropping back. This is back-to-back weeks with ACL tears for Chiefs QBs.	OUT for season.
Pat Bryant (WR, DEN)	Undisclosed (Head/Neck)	Dr. Morse: "Scary situation." Strapped to a board and carted off after a massive over-the-middle hit. Facemask was literally unscrewed from the helmet.	OUT Indefinitely.
Marcus Mariota (QB, WAS)	Right Hand / Quad	Dr. Chao: Evaluated for concussion and cleared, but the hand injury prevented him from gripping the ball. Mechanism suggests a "stinger" or bone bruise.	Questionable for Week 17.
Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)	Neck / Stinger	Jeff Mueller: Vidal walked off but didn't return. Dr. Morse noted the "head-down" contact. Usually a 1-week recovery if it's just a stinger, but Omarion Hampton has taken the job.	1 Week (or less).
Malik Willis (QB, GB)	Shoulder	Matt LaFleur: "Pretty sore... a legitimate deal." With Jordan Love in concussion protocol, the Packers are looking at Clayton Tune if Willis can’t lift his arm by Wednesday.	Doubtful for Week 17.

The FFM playoff seeding projections (assuming SF wins tonight):

AFC

1) NE

2) JAX

3) LAC

4) PIT

5) BUF

6) DEN

7) HOU

------

8) IND

NFC

1) SF

2) GB

3) PHI

4) CAR

5) LAR

6) SEA

7) CHI

------------

8) DET

2026 NFL Draft:

#1 NYG

#2 NYJ

#3 ARI

-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 2 WRs/2 teams in

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Michael Wilson, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

Marvin Harrison, Darnell Mooney

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2025 Week 16 Game Report: Seahawks 38, Rams 37

2025 Week 16 Game Report: Falcons 26, Cardinals 19

Week 17 Daily News and Comments Stream...(SAT 2.0)

RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 12/22-28 (SUN. Yest. Games React, Injuries, Weather)