Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
MON 9/15
(7:55amET)
-- Monday agenda...
The WSH-GB TNF game report will lead us off for the week, like every week from here on in. Will post mid-morning ET.
The Executive Summary will post somewhere around 6-8pmET today and every Monday of the season. I will try to have that done by 6pmET to be ahead of the MNF double-header start.
The MNF chat room will be open on the Discord chat...double-header night tonight.
-- QB Injury day. We’ll find out more on three situations...
Joe Burrow...feared to need surgery and be out 3+ months. My first game report will be CIN-JAX to go through the situation and options to replace Burrow. The Executive Report will also be very Burrow centric.
Jayden Daniels...day-to-day, but how much is he gonna be affected as a runner by his injury?
Justin Fields...concussion, unknown severity.
-- I was cruising along (7-3) on my ATS picks through the 1pmET games. And the three 4pm games were going my way too...and then they one by one fell...Kelce drops a TD into an INT and KC falls away, Denver blows their game on a penalty/re-kick game winning FG by Indy, and Arizona lets a huge lead evaporate to Bryce Young. (7-3) ATS turns to (7-6) in a blink and ends Sunday (8-6). Still alive in Survivor pools with the Ravens not sweating CLE.
I only really bet one game this week...ATL +3.5 on SNF. I intended to BET Denver -1.5, but I never got around to it...thankfully. I did bet Green Bay in-game on TNF, -4.5, and that came in. I’m doing very well in ATS this season, which I never really do well early season with ATS bets.
...but I usually clean up on early season Player Props, but I’m getting my butt whooped on those out of the gates. I went heavy on Deebo rushing, Breece rushing, and Boutte receiving...and lost them all this week. That’s a rare bad Player Prop bet start, but it is my reality so far. Back to the grind looking for an opportunity to get back to even for the season in Week 3.
Other bets made this summer (not yet settled) are looking promising to make up my early season Player Prop betting gap. On the DraftKings ‘Drive for 5’ (betting on the record of teams in their first 5 games), I bet on 3 teams...heavier on NYG and TEN being bad...and they are both (0-2)...I need them to win 0 or 1 games in the first 5 games to payoff. I also bet light on Indy being bad, and I can kiss that money goodbye.
-------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
