Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
8/3 SUN
(8:28amET)
-- The countdown...
4 days until the preseason really kicks off.
32 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- I’m gathering info on all the recent scrimmages that were like the showcase games (of sorts), the fans welcome to the stadium for a night to watch a ‘game’-like event. More info on those the next few days, starting Monday.
They are not true games, per se, and still non-contact, kinda, but it’s something a little more than just a basic practice. A lot of stars sit these out too, but teams with position battles for starting jobs and some of the rookies do partake, so we’ll see any info we can get from tape I can watch, etc. And the teams try not to let the tape out/don’t televise it, but...you know...modern technology and devices and all...
-- More downfall of the 49ers’ news/notes...
Jauan Jennings...there’s a split debate going on whether JJ is hurt more than they are letting on versus are they doing this to provide cover for Jennings to ‘hold out’ for his new deal. From a ‘guessing from the outside’ standpoint -- the fact that he had these contract demands, and threatened some things, but still showed up to camp and participated...I don’t know why in a week he would then ‘pull a stunt’...but it’s possible he did.
With Aiyuk-JJ-Cowing down and Ricky Pearsall getting more time off, DeMarcus Robinson is slicing in and getting connected to Brock Purdy...so much so there is starting to be wondering if the 49ers put or wanted Jennings out so they could trade him and just run with DRob. in his role.
Rookie Jordan Watkins was starting to shine with this new golden opportunity...and now he’s hurt/out for some period of time (could be just a few days).
The 49ers WR situation is an absolute mess right now. NONE of this can be good for Brock Purdy. Everyday is a new reality and curveball for the 49ers WR group...with more guys getting tryouts, etc.
On the RB front...rookie RB Jordan James was starting to draw heat, and now he is hurt...knee injury, no...it’s ‘knees’ injury, both knees apparently. He may be in some trouble. Thus, the signing of Ameer Abdullah...who is still really viable/I cannot believe he was sitting out there free this late into the preseason. Did anyone in the NFL watch him play late last season for LV? You (the NFL) don’t need to tell me the answer, I already know...and I know if you did watch, you have no idea what you’re looking at. You’re (the NFL) only concerned that he has a ‘3’ in front of his age.
Oh, and a recent 49ers beat writer/critic (Grant Cohn) mentioned in passing on a recent video that the 49ers spent time trying to work CMC in the passing game a lot in a recent practice, but they could barely connect with CMC because he wasn’t getting open...that Jason Pinnock was manhandling him in coverage. Sit with that thought...if true, and I don’t know if it is or not...but Cohn has been questioning CMC’s speed all calendar year...but I don’t 100% trust his eyes, I need to see it for myself and I can’t get any good/real CMC play in real live action to try and make some determinations.
Also, side note...Pinnock is likely the key starting SAF for SF based on how well he’s played in the preseason.
Rookie Mykell Williams has either been out/hurting with his foot issue or people telling me he outright stinks as a pass rusher...that he’s more of a 3-4 DE that sets an edge but does so in a 4-3 DE style/body. Not good. He’s a DE in a 4-3 scheme...and he can’t rush the passer well. This is what the 49ers used their top 10 pick on?
Everybody is raving about rookie DT C.J. West, however. The reports on him have been glowing from all sources, public and private.
Speaking of teams with CB injury issues...the 49ers starting duo (Green/Lenior) are down and out for an unspecified period of time. Another team that may be in the CB market is the 49ers, but right now they are hoping their two starters will be healed/ready to go for Week 1.
The 49ers gutted this team of many key players in the offseason, and everyone left or added seems to be hurt. Draft picks are getting hurt at an alarming rate. This team is in total chaos right now.
...and, yet, the 49ers have retaken the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West over the Rams this week.
How?
-- Headline from a Pat McAfee YT clip: Cam Ward & Calvin Ridley Look DANGEROUS In Titans Camp...
My interest was piqued to watch the clips they showed as examples, because two people mentioned to me recently (which I thought was odd) how ‘they heard’ that Calvin Ridley was blowing up in Titans camp.
So, I watched the first clip.
...and this is really starting to piss me off.
And I’m sharing these ‘QB highlights from camp’ rants with you, so that if I ever hit the great 10-leg, $10M+ parlay and depart from football, you will have these lessons I’ve handed down like a legacy left behind. Also, I need to continue to deprogram some right now, because we all can fall prey to it...it’s that ‘hype’ time of year...we all fall prey to when the media talks about the thing we love (football things) and multiple outlets pick up on it...and the wave of coverage/collective sudden scouting from a single, unknown beat writer source or fan tweet...which then gets turned into a RotoBlurb, and then that blurb becomes as ‘known fact’ for the general population...we need to pause and consider the chain of events and question whether anyone knows what they are talking about.
Case in point, I watched/skimmed to Pat McAfee’s first clip #1 (that I’m not even gonna waste time attaching here) from the video title that is just begging you to click it (Cam Ward & Calvin Ridley Look DANGEROUS In Titans Camp...) and then I asked all kinds of football detective questions as I watched it a second and third time.
Let me describe to you the ‘DANGEROUS’ thing they showed as their very first example...
At 0:11 seconds into the video/play, Ward gets the shotgun snap.
At approx. 0:14 seconds in, Ward is scrambling in the pocket...and Calvin Ridley ran a short stop-route and was totally covered/not open.
Three+ seconds of a play/time for a QB is likely not going to happen much for a QB to conduct a passing play.
BUT if they scramble and buy time, OK they might get 3+ seconds...but like the video examples I have shown on these fake news situations...Ward buys (too much) time in a totally clean environment because any pass rushers know to stay out of his way...so Ward moves around and no one is near him, they likely/actually are moving away from him so Ward doesn’t get close to them, so the defensive ends, etc., don’t get in trouble for accidentally getting near the QB.
So, Ward shuffles around...Ridley goes from a complete stop on the route and realizes Ward is buying infinite, pristine time, so Ridley stops standing there and starts sprinting downfield three+ seconds into the play (that would’ve likely been dead in a normal setting/game situation). This catches Ridley’s coverage by surprise, and the cover corner starts chasing him (to no avail...too late of a re-start in chasing him).
Around the 0:15-16 second mark of this video (4-5 seconds after the snap touched Ward’s hands), Ward sees Ridley sprinting, breaking off the first route and heaves it to him (again, with no one even close to Ward...and Ward knowing he won’t get hit even if someone was within 3 yards of him) and Ward throws it on the money to a sprinting open Ridley, and the connection clicks for a ‘big play’...7-8+ seconds since the snap.
None of this was real...nor DANGEROUS (unless you are talking about the misinformation). It’s not gonna happen in a real game...maybe once in a lifetime, or once in a season at best, a QB would buy 5+ seconds back to pass and a WR would break off a route and his cover CB would not realize it until the WR had a one second head start on him and the safeties would be nowhere to be found to help and the WR sprints freely wide-open from their prior short stop-route, and a bomb connection can then occur.
You have two choices...
Ignore this type of thing because it is ‘not real’...and wait until we see new guys like Ward in real game situations to pass judgement.
OR
Click on the baiting videos titled: Cam Ward & Calvin Ridley Look DANGEROUS In Titans Camp... and not even watch it but log the headline in your brain as ‘fact’ and maybe see a similar RotoBlurb headline later to ingrain it more, a ‘blurb’ that was concocted after some unknown Blurb ‘writer’ saw this McAfee video pop up in their feed too...and their job is to find things to post and thus they made a captivating headline about it...and then we (the public) sees the headline, assume it as true because we keep seeing it pop up everywhere, and we move on with our lives assuming it’s true and never questioning it.
The choice is yours.
We cannot ascertain the truth of where these rookie QBs or QB competitions are at until the QBs are pushed into real game play, like the preseason...which isn’t perfect to judge, but it’s exponentially better than 11-on-11 non-contact drills where you can't touch the QB, and he knows it, and you don’t know which WRs going against what corners who are healthy.
This upcoming week...the real clues begin to reveal...the first week of the preseason games.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Dallas
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Sean McDermott/BUF, Ben Johnson/CHI
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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8/2 SAT
(7:49amET)
-- The countdown...
5 days until the preseason really kicks off.
33 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- NBC Headline: Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles told the NFL Insiders that Chris Godwin (ankle) is “moving well,” but was unable to provide a timetable for Godwin’s expected return.
I started touching on this issue a few days or so ago. The situation looks more delayed each week/Godwin is like not gonna be ready by Week 1...and we have no real clue when he is back, and then when he would be ‘up to speed’ once back.
Emeka Egbuka continues to rise in value. Godwin continues to sink.
-- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that “Keenan Allen is visiting the Chargers today, and there is mutual interest in a potential reunion.”
This makes a ton of sense. Not sure why it is just coming to fruition now? You can’t take LAC as seriously to win the AFC West if their non-Ladd WRs are rookies or involves Quentin Johnston.
I think this is gonna happen, and then if it does -- What kind of action does this take away from Ladd McConkey as Herbert BFF throws?
Before Ladd became the favorite target, it was Keenan Allen for Herbert his entire career until 2024. All we can do is speculate...
-- Colts HC Shane Steichen said Anthony Richardson has been “playing at a high level” throughout training camp.
We’re getting the good reports about Richardson now, after Daniel Jones began camp with the good reports. I don’t know how much of this battle is currently a Richardson rise and/or a Daniel Jones fall. My sources have told me neither guy looks very good or consistently accurate...that it is a battle of attrition.
The Colts, and the public, and I...are not gonna know who really is the better option until we see them in real preseason competition...nice camp report moments reported from the sterile, fake backdrop of non-touching-of-the-QB is not gonna cut it in this situation. We need to see each of them, the Colts management needs to see each of them, working under fire to judge.
I think it is somewhere around 50/50 between them right now...no one of them is the obvious choice yet, and there are so many variables in play that none of us can see behind the scenes to make a confident call...including what the new owner thinks AND how much pressure the HC and GM are feeling under new management. The ultimate decision may have nothing to do with who ‘technically won’ in the preseason, unless it’s so obvious. And it can’t be obvious until they play in real preseason games.
Just like we didn't know the Trey Lance stuff was all BS until we saw it live Thursday.
Just like we won't know the following until we see them play real games:
Rattler v. Shough
Caleb v. himself
Flacco v. Pickett
'Nice things' said by coaches or beat writers don't matter now -- it's gonna all change weekly based upon how they do in real games and the combined (with another team) practices.
My guess at the ultimate winners (to start Week 1) of the real QB competitions right now are: Richardson, Shough, Flacco. But who those teams' starters will be by Week 2-3-4 is likely a different story. And I wouldn't bet a nickel on any of those predictions right now. It could easily be Jones, Rattler, Pickett Week 1...It's still heavily speculation and guessing, and the guesses will change with every preseason game.
-- NBC Headline: Cowboys CB Shavon Revel Jr. suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn ACL and will not be ready for Week 1.
No Trevon Diggs to start the season, Caelen Carson is out for the next 4-6 weeks...and now no Revel to start 2025? The Cowboys hopes for the playoffs are a leaking boat right now due to the CB situation. They HAVE to do something to intervene. What to do? I don’t know, but they gotta do something.
Closer to 53-man cut down day they will likely try to find something. A free agent off the streets right now won’t cut it.
They keep trying to push the notion that Kaiir Elam is doing so great and was a steal, but I would to see that to believe it.
Then there was this from Dallas today: Micah Parsons said he no longer wants to play for the Cowboys and has requested a trade.
I have quipped a few times that Jerry should have traded Parsons months ago in a deal for the entire Browns secondary, to solve all his problems. But Jerry waited too late and now he’s stuck. The visionary, aggressive businessman just sat on his hands and now has invited in more issues.
Several teams need CBs right now, so the price has gone sky high. Miami needs two. Several teams need ‘one more’.
Jamel Dean is one of the only CBs that I’m aware of that is on the trading block. But CBs are so critical, no teams may want to deal any excess unless it’s a spectacular deal. That’s why the Jalen Ramsey deal by Miami made no sense -- they need CBs desperately and they paid millions of dollars to just give him away.
Stephon Gilmore is a soon-to-be 35-year old free agent, and asking price can keep going higher by the day with the way CBs are going down.
-- So, Tyreek Hill offered up an opinion (in an interview) the other day that the team should bench De’Von Achane in short-yardage situations.
I don’t think Tyreek is trying to get himself traded...he’s not that methodical/smart; he’s just that dumb and arrogant to think his opinions on everything must be heard. He’s not trying to get traded, but he is making himself more tradable every week.
Why the Dolphins wouldn’t put up with Jalen Ramsey but are willing to get embarrassed and pushed around by Tyreek on a weekly/monthly basis is a mystery...but it’s why Mike McDaniel is going to get himself fired soon -- he may be a brilliant offense mind, but he cannot manage personnel/an organization very well (and his GM is really killing him, but that’s also partly on McDaniel as well).
Some people are just not Head Coach personalities...it’s no shame in that.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Cleveland
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Sean McDermott/BUF, Ben Johnson/CHI
Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Zac Taylor/CIN, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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8/1 FRI
(6:13amET)
-- The countdown...
6 days until the preseason really kicks off.
34 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- HOF game write up will be out at some point 2nd-half of the day.
-- Faux 2.0 Computer Simulation will begin today...to do a check before the real preseason begins. This series will run daily for a week+.
-- Kenny Pickett REWIND will be out on Saturday.
*Camp Notes (things I am hearing from sources or seeing with my own eyes)...*
-- Noah Fant did what I didn’t think he would do...he signed with the Bengals.
I’m guessing he sees his best chance to be a starter would be to take down Mike Gesicki, which has some logic to it...if Fant ever could get his act together.
I want to see the contract details before I react/overreact...but my first reaction is: I am slashing Gesicki’s ‘UV’ rating in the Draft Guide UV ranking. Not that Fant is a major fear...but he is gonna be in place to steal touches...and maybe a majority of TE snaps, if he’s motivated/finds himself somehow.
-- Terry McLaurin requested a trade...it’s the dance he needs to do to negotiate. I bet Washington responds by letting him seek that trade/new deal to see what the market says he’s worth.
I do not believe McLaurin will be traded in the end.
-- Everything that’s wrong with NFL analysis of quarterbacks and everything wrong with scouting training camp work is in this tweet/video...a video that some football sites posted with enthusiasm on how great Jaxon Dart is working: https://x.com/art_stapleton/status/1950930352114975185
That is one of the worst throws...to a receiver not even open/shouldn’t have thrown the ball to...you’ll ever see, especially when you consider (if you watch this 2-3-4x) that there is absolutely zero pressure, Dart has all day to set and throw without a modicum of worry about getting bothered or hit, even if a DL breaks through he knows they will veer away -- and with all that time to set and launch...that’s what he throws?
I saw all these issues with Dart on his college tape. You can look at Dart’s numbers/output against real opponents and see he is not very good. This is all gonna end horribly...arguably the single worst pick (considering pick number and trading up to do it) in the 2025 NFL Draft, and yet there are beat reporters, practice observers, football site writers writing glowing reports of the Dart progress...and RotoBlurb sites piggybacking all that to push that Dart is coming on...and it’s tape like the above example that they think is proof of the Dart greatness. Unreal.
And it’s not just me judging this one throw...I already knew, saw the problem with Dart in college and in OTAs and camp...this one ‘tweet’/post just spurred me to rant about it.
Most everything being said ‘positive’ (which is 99% of the analysis) of high pick rookies right now, in non-contact training camp, is totally useless fodder -- we all can’t know, I cannot know, how well the high pick rookies are doing until I see them in real football situations and opposition.
Brian Daboll is supposed to be an offensive genius, a QB guru -- and defending Daniel Jones, pushing Drew Lock, and chasing Jaxson Dart because he’s buddies with a lot of Ole Miss people are going to be the QB choices/resume that will get him fired this year...never to be a head coach again. And it will be mostly all his fault that he is fired.
Then I saw this soon after the lame throw video by Dart... A PFF analyst (Brandley Locker) said: The Giants are likely to start either Russell Wilson or first-round pick Jaxson Dart, leaving Winston as the team’s presumptive QB3. New York could keep the former first overall pick in that role, but Winston figures to be most teams’ top trade target when a quarterback injury inevitably happens.
Thank you, mainstream...you have to be out of your mind.
For Jaxson Dart to start, COVID would have to return or an equivalent, rendering Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston incapacitated in early September and the Giants have no other choice. Even then, it might be Tommy DeVito...
-- Some Tet McMillan coverage/Canales quotes: https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/panthers/2025/07/30/panthers-training-camp-tetairoa-mcmillan-dave-canales/85441396007/#
-- Just when I thought I was done railing on non-contact practice things with QBs, especially...then I got sent this video from Bears practice that people were so excited about.
See if you see what I see: https://x.com/beardenlive/status/1950932357625614645
I clocked it afterwards...approx. 4 seconds from snap to throw. He rolls out into some pressure, but the pressure guy knows not to even get close to the untouchable (in practice) QB, so then Caleb goes all the way back to the middle of the field and winds up and throws a basic pass -- and the crowd goes WILD.
There are not 4 seconds to throw in the NFL...especially not with O-Linemen just standing around (as you see in this clip as well) because they don’t care/they know no real pressure is coming...and QBs aren’t rolling out one way, then coming back to the middle without a defender within 5 yards of them...and then with all that coverage cannot hold tight to a WR for 4 seconds, so of course a WR was sprinting open.
That play is such a fraud, but the fans ooohed and aaahhed seeing it, a fan site cited it as a great practice moment for Caleb. It’s a con...and with now 15+ years of doing this job, I still see football people in the industry don’t get it/will never get it/always get sucked in by these fraud practice moments.
Also, from Twitter/X...
@BradBiggs (a beat reporter)
#Bears practice ended with an end-of-game period as Tyson Bagent floated a pass to TE Joel Wilson into a small window for a touchdown, about 18 yards on the play.
1st team series ended on a 4th down pick by Jaquan Brisker after Caleb Williams was flushed out of pocket.
What was funny about this tweet (and I am still calling it that), was some of the fan comments mentioning that Bagent has been the best QB in practice this year, so far.
Chicago cannot have this. I wonder if they will trade Bagent...or cut him...or start him by Weeks 5-8 range?
If you think the media is bad at scouting QBs/get suckered by non-contact drill QB play...the NFL coaches are even worse.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Cincinnati
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Sean McDermott/BUF, Ben Johnson/CHI
Zac Taylor/CIN, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
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7/31 THU
(8:11amET)
-- The countdown...
Today is the HOF game!!! I will have that first game report of the 2025 season out on Friday.
7 days until the preseason really kicks off.
35 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- Maybe.
Maybe.
Maybe I will livestream the 1st-quarter or so of the HOF game...just to watch the Trey Lance parts. I gotta see how far my worklog is backed up going into the evening. I’ll make an announcement on it, if I am livestreaming for a bit, in the afternoon or so, East Coast time.
If I live stream it, I’ll do prop bets on it and talk about in-game bets to do for fun...to have something to do while watching what is typically a boring game -- but I am all about watching/scouting the Trey Lance debut, the supposedly (somewhat) ‘fixed’ Trey Lance.
-- A new mock (re)draft with commentary...using a different strategy, will post early this day. FYI
As well, it’s DRD top 350 update day. That board will update later in the evening, after I watch some of the guys work in the HOF game. We may see Gadsden, TeSlaa, Tre Harris tonight...maybe even a carry or two from Omarion (doubtful).
-- 49ers are having all kinds of injury issues...
Mykell Williams’ foot injury from 2024...he’s now currently out of practice with a foot issue this week.
Jauan Jennings has a calf injury that is starting to get a bit worrisome now for 2025. We’re taking his projections down a bit and reducing his ‘undervalue’ rating. The JJ injury absence is leading to a Ricky Pearsall re-rise...as the only healthy WR weapon SF has.
...but the way Pearsall gets hurt every other day, it could all be short-lived.
We are taking down Jennings...and Purdy...on the utter mess this team is becoming through injury and poor management.
This whole scene is starting to FF-stink in San Francisco.
-- This (YT link attached below, 13 or so minutes long) was an interesting exchange/discussion about Dre Greenlaw and the 49ers in general.
If you don’t want to watch it, the summary is: Dre Greenlaw (long time SF stalwart) said he chose to play for Denver this free agency season -- because he felt wanted. He further described how the 49ers didn’t really pursue him strongly or assure or respect him, and were more worried to talk about his injuries in the past two years, in free agency...while Denver came on strong and talked about their vision for him like the 49ers never had.
That statement alone (above), you could throw away as insignificant because probably a lot of free agents think that.
However, the little extra on that caught my attention...Greenlaw said the 49ers came back to him at the very end of the process and said they would match the Broncos offer, and then Greenlaw purposefully turned them down because he felt like Denver ‘wanted’ him and the 49ers really didn’t ever try.
(not discussed on the video, but something I was led to believe from a source): There’s also word that Charvarius Ward had the same issue and bolted for the Colts.
Two big defenders among a lot of players, several bigger name players, who left the 49ers this offseason. The 49ers are trying to paint all this like it was their plan and payroll management all along, but there’s evidence maybe players just want out of San Fran. The 49ers are sitting on a ton of open salary cap space right now...money was not all the issue.
Deebo was unhappy...and now gone.
Aiyuk is unhappy...and will be gone.
Jauan Jennings is now frustrated with his negotiations.
Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Talanoa Hufanga, key OL Jaylon Moore (to KC)...all gone this offseason.
Then you look at the free agents they signed to replace them, and it’s a joke.
Any talk of SF being savvy because they worried about putting money into ‘injury risk players’/recently injured guys like Greenlaw and Hufanga...well, they then go use (waste) a 1st-round pick on an injured (foot) pass rusher (Mykell), who is now missing training camp with...’surprise’...a foot injury.
I’ve had, and continue to have, a BAD feeling about the 49ers this year/their future/their current.
If the 49ers finish last again...and Brock Purdy is ‘meh’ (after a huge contract)...and Aiyuk is an issue...and CMC sputters or goes down...and Deebo thrives with Washington...and Jaylon Moore kills it for KC...and Dre Greenlaw leads Denver to a top/killer defense...and Charvarius Ward is a star again...and Trey Lance looks like a brand-new QB in the preseason -- there should be a ton of heat on Kyle Shanahan, and John Lynch should be fired.
I wonder if Kyle wants out of San Fran too? Bad team. Old team. A good but not elite QB locked in for the long term. Kyle will be hated in SF...but would be beloved as a ‘free agent’ head coach.
The video (Grant Cohn) that discusses Greenlaw and some SF things, and it’s an interesting listen if you got time to kill (but not a ‘must’ listen):
https://youtu.be/krRUrAD6WBc?si=NhPktZH84LOqeajB
-- Isaiah Likely is going to miss a few weeks with a foot injury, and now subsequent minor surgery...it’s not good/never good starting the season like this, going into his free agent season with Mark Andrews still in his way.
Likely projections will dip a bit...Andrews’ will rise a touch.
-- The Raiders starting outside CB duo in camp, so far: Eric Stokes and rookie Darien Porter...Jakorian Bennett running as a 2nd-teamer mostly.
-- If the Vikings are gonna shock the world again and try to win the NFC North this year...this news is a huge from yesterday: Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw (ACL/MCL) is participating in team drills in training camp.
-- Some people think I’m crazy with the belief that Arch Manning may stay in college in 2026...and possibly for the 2027 season as well. I discussed why that was on the video TUE might (available on-demand).
Well, Jimmy Haslam thinks it’s possible (when asked): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jimmy-haslam-i-bet-arch-manning-stays-in-college-two-years-not-worth-discussing
If Jimmy Haslam thinks a certain way that I do, then maybe I really am wrong?
It’s WAYYYYYYYYYY too early to be in the ‘tank for Arch’ mode.
I also think there is an Arch backlash that could hit, before he ultimately goes forward. I think some ‘Manning fatigue’ could happen...and the social media comment assassins will lie in wait to talk down Arch...and all the ‘will he go to the Browns with Nick Saban in 2026?’ talk is totally ridiculous given he really has never started a game as ‘the man’/the QB for his team (just a few spot/relief starts last year).
You take a popular name guy and push him as the #1 pick in the next draft, before he’s ever had his first real season of college play -- he’s being built up to disappoint the fans, because he almost cannot live up to the hype unless Texas goes undefeated, wins the title, and Arch wins the Heisman.
Someone in the media floated this anti-Arch wondering...and I’m am seeing/hearing the same sentiment starting to pop up on other talk shows, message boards, etc: https://stormininnorman.com/texas-qb-drama-ou-expert-predicts-arch-manning-noise-is-coming-red-river-rivalry-oklahoma-sooners
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Chicago
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF
Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/30 WED
(7:00amET)
-- The countdown...
1 day until the HOF game.
8 days until the preseason really kicks off.
36 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- Two+ hours of player talk and roster management theory on last night’s video. Available on demand now.
-- Kyle Pitts missed a day of practice, and then upon return to practice...he was right back to getting a lot of throws from Michael Penix in the 11-on-11s.
-- Starting for Arizona defense in camp: rookies Cody Simon AND Will Johnson. If Will Johnson is totally back, as it seems, what a nice boost for the Cardinals-DST...a one-time top 10 draft prospect, thought-to-be...fell in the draft due to an injury last season.
-- It’s weird to think/visualize the following Jags practice note -- someone was telling me about the surrealness of watching CB Travis Hunter giving fits to WR Brian Thomas.
What a wild thing...sometimes they’re the dynamic duo on offense...and sometimes Hunter is locking down Thomas as the battle offense v. defense.
I am told Hunter has looked as advertised, and more...especially looking great as a receiver. He’s an untapped, raw WR talent with a sweet upside.
-- How about this note...
Tank Bigsby has been consistently leading the RB group in snaps, touches, first one in the rotations and drills and 11-on-11s.
That’s an exciting note, but ‘sadly’ (for me) the next thing I was told made me even more delighted...the two RBs who had nice practices the other day...#1 Bigsby...#2 Ja’Quinden Jackson! Long-time FFM’ers of the past 2 years know what we’ve thought about Jackson (and having to turn on him after a Combine/Pro Day disaster).
I also know, no way in heck Jackson makes that team/rotation. I’m just glad to hear a sign of life from him. A future UFL rushing title guy, is what I would predict. He’s a knucklehead, as I am finding out...so, no longer in love with him...but it’s sad how he has thrown his gift away.
-- Speaking of deep sleeper UDFA RB loves that have the world against them to make it in the league...someone sent me this report at the same time someone told me something similar from observing practices for themselves. And my day has been made...
The past 24-48 hours it has been Montrel-mania. We discussed him more on the video show last night. I’m guessing he will be a practice squad guy in 2025...but just a ‘break’ or two away from rising up or getting claimed, as it goes for these guys.
-- For what it is worth, there appears to be a potential kicker coup on Younghoe Koo in Atlanta. IPP rookie Lenny Krieg is catching a buzz in camp, and outperforming Koo so far...by all observer’s judgements.
A quick background on Krieg, a snippet from our Draft Guide commentary on Krieg...
Lenny Krieg is a 22-year-old German-born placekicker, who joined the Falcons in March 2025 via the NFL’s International Player Pathway program. Born in 2002, in Berlin, the 6’1”, 211-pound former soccer player self-taught kicking through YouTube, later playing for the Stuttgart Surge in the ELF, where he led kickers with 99 points in 2024 despite a 68.8% field goal rate. He signed a three-year deal with the Falcons on March 27, 2025, with a $10,000 signing bonus and $843,333 cap hit.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Carolina
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Sean McDermott/BUF, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/30 WED
(8:03amET)
-- The countdown...
1 day until the HOF game.
8 days until the preseason really kicks off.
36 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- Two+ hours of player talk and roster management theory on last night’s video. Available on demand now.
-- Kyle Pitts missed a day of practice, and then upon return to practice...he was right back to getting a lot of throws from Michael Penix in the 11-on-11s.
-- Starting for Arizona defense in camp: rookies Cody Simon AND Will Johnson. If Will Johnson is totally back, as it seems, what a nice boost for the Cardinals-DST...a one-time top 10 draft prospect, thought-to-be...fell in the draft due to an injury last season.
-- It’s weird to think/visualize the following Jags practice note -- someone was telling me about the surrealness of watching CB Travis Hunter giving fits to WR Brian Thomas.
What a wild thing...sometimes they’re the dynamic duo on offense...and sometimes Hunter is locking down Thomas as the battle offense v. defense.
I am told Hunter has looked as advertised, and more...especially looking great as a receiver. He’s an untapped, raw WR talent with a sweet upside.
-- How about this note...
Tank Bigsby has been consistently leading the RB group in snaps, touches, first one in the rotations and drills and 11-on-11s.
That’s an exciting note, but ‘sadly’ (for me) the next thing I was told made me even more delighted...the two RBs who had nice practices the other day...#1 Bigsby...#2 Ja’Quinden Jackson! Long-time FFM’ers of the past 2 years know what we’ve thought about Jackson (and having to turn on him after a Combine/Pro Day disaster).
I also know, no way in heck Jackson makes that team/rotation. I’m just glad to hear a sign of life from him. A future UFL rushing title guy, is what I would predict. He’s a knucklehead, as I am finding out...so, no longer in love with him...but it’s sad how he has thrown his gift away.
-- Speaking of deep sleeper UDFA RB loves that have the world against them to make it in the league...someone sent me this report at the same time someone told me something similar from observing practices for themselves. And my day has been made...
The past 24-48 hours it has been Montrell-mania. We discussed him more on the video show last night. I’m guessing he will be a practice squad guy in 2025...but just a ‘break’ or two away from rising up or getting claimed, as it goes for these guys.
-- For what it is worth, there appears to be a potential kicker coup on Younghoe Koo in Atlanta. IPP rookie Lenny Krieg is catching a buzz in camp, and outperforming Koo so far...by all observer’s judgements.
A quick background on Krieg, a snippet from our Draft Guide commentary on Krieg...
Lenny Krieg is a 22-year-old German-born placekicker, who joined the Falcons in March 2025 via the NFL’s International Player Pathway program. Born in 2002, in Berlin, the 6’1”, 211-pound former soccer player self-taught kicking through YouTube, later playing for the Stuttgart Surge in the ELF, where he led kickers with 99 points in 2024 despite a 68.8% field goal rate. He signed a three-year deal with the Falcons on March 27, 2025, with a $10,000 signing bonus and $843,333 cap hit.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Carolina
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL, Dave Canales/CAR
Sean McDermott/BUF, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/29 TUE
(6:50amET)
-- The countdown...
2 days until the HOF game.
9 days until the preseason really kicks off.
37 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- TUE night Video Q&A show tonight (Tuesday 7/29) at 8:30pmET start time. That will be the regular TUE nighttime slot...and will run that way to the end of the season.
Bring your football questions to the show, as always...Redraft, Dynasty, DRD, betting, etc.
Show notices and YouTube access will post on Tuesday’s ahead of showtime.
-- Headline: Cowboys beat reporters have been impressed by RB Jaydon Blue through the first week of training camp practices.
Be careful reacting strongly/buying too much into this... We’re in the phase of football coverage where we’re all starved for football...we’re all ‘thirsty’ and tend to overreact to any RotoBlurb observation of a beat writer/local reporter’s practice observations sprayed our way...and the local reporters and team-centric websites are in complete religion-mode.
For local reporters and ‘fan’ sites -- ‘the team’ is their religion and the players are their messiahs and disciples and heroes of the faith. So, they tend to come to the defense of and/or hyper-promote most players, especially rookies. So, it’s not surprising that ALL the reporters came out to support Jaydon Blue after the bombshell note from some random person talking on a podcast on how the Cowboys’ coaches are frustrated with Blue’s work ethic.
What did you expect from Blue last week after the bombshell statement dropped? Of course, Blue is gonna be on his best behavior after that hit the internet. And, of course, the local reporters are gonna rally to him...and, of course, Blue is gonna look ‘fast’ in non-contact drills/practices anyway -- because he is fast. Drilling down on the source given for this RotoBlurb: The crux of it seems to be that 1-2 reporters tweeted something along the lines that ‘Blue looks good...good burst’. That’s the extent of what I saw (without digging too deep). He showed burst in shorts and shoulder pads, noncontact drills...’burst’ according to people we don’t know how well they know ‘burst’.
None of the ‘burst love’ resolves the issue raised about his work ethic...nor does it speak to his fumble concerns, etc. There’s a long way to go in this story...it’s not settled with this ‘burst’ Rotoblurb.
In other Cowboys RB news...
"Phil Mafah, I'm starting to feel him." - Brian Schottenheimer on the rookie RB after the #Cowboys first padded practice of 2025
What happened in my head when I saw that quote from the HC: https://youtu.be/t9ArZEc_LBI?si=WAVvcLeaxHlt5Iaa
-- Note from Minnesota...
The plan has been announced: J.J. McCarthy will start the 1st preseason game, and then not play a preseason game for the rest of the preseason. FYI
That may be the preseason game of the year to watch...it will be analyzed and over-analyzed like the Zapruder film.
-- Jaire Alexander, newly signed by the Ravens...missed Monday practice to get his knee drained, but is expected back tomorrow? Knee drains are never a good sign. Green Bay’s hesitancy and ultimate drop of Jaire may have a ton of logic to it...
-- Broncos signed WR Courtland Sutton to a four-year, $92 million contract extension. Ladies and Gentlemen, your #1 WR, #1 most targets on the Broncos for 2025.
The question is...who is 2nd in line for Bo Nix/Sean Payton? And I don’t think I can give a definitive answer to that now. I know who I hope it is, but the jury/scouting is still ‘out’.
-- Jordan Whittington appears on his way to making Tutu Atwell a $10M contract for 2025 mistake (to go on top of the excessive spend on Davante Adams). I’m sure the Rams won’t start out with J-Whitt as a starter over Tutu, after what they spent on Tutu...but it’s probably only a matter of time.
I am a big fan of Whittington’s, but not this year...come talk to me next February...when Atwell is gone and Adams is fading away.
-- Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel said Darren Waller is in ‘tremendous shape.”
But also...
Noah Fant visited, or is visiting, the Dolphins.
Whatever you thought of Waller’s return, cut it by 25-33% if Fant signs there.
I don’t think Fant will sign with MIA...or NO or CIN (all teams he’s visited so far).
My thoughts/projections on his next spot: PHI or LV or KC...or most likely he sits out waiting for that key TE injury where he can step into.
-- Steelers released RB Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson himself took to social media on Monday, saying, “Breaking news! Pittsburgh Steelers release old washed-up Cordarrelle Patterson on his day off!!!”
It doesn’t sound like CPatt is looking to retire just yet.
I still think CP has juice left in the tank. He can help a team in various ways...especially with kick returns about to come back into play.
If he goes for the money, I would guess he sits out a bit and waits for a key RB injury...or key WR injury he could help a team out with.
If he goes for a ring, he likely signs quickly/cheaply with: KC, DEN, DET.
Ross predicts: SF to go into the Deebo role.
If he just wants the highest bidder, then ‘who knows?’ at this point. Possibly the Jets or the Titans?
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
(same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Buffalo
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL
Sean McDermott/BUF, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/28 MON
(7:50amET)
-- The countdown...
3 days until the HOF game.
10 days until the preseason really kicks off.
38 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- Time to get back to my regular football season schedule...
I am planning to start the TUE night video Q&A shows this upcoming Tuesday 7/29 at probably 8:30pmET start time. That will be the regular TUE nighttime slot...and will run that way to the end of the season.
Bring your football questions to the show, as always...Redraft, Dynasty, DRD, betting, etc.
Show notices and YouTube access will post on Tuesday’s ahead of showtime.
*Camp Notes (things I am hearing from sources or seeing with my own eyes)...*
-- Cowboys signed TE Jake Ferguson to a four-year, $52 million contract extension.
This puts to rest any thoughts of/a vote of a lack of confidence in Luke Schoonmaker or Brevyn-Spann, etc., in Dallas. A little boost in the projections for JFerg.
-- Brashard Smith is still seeing a bunch of time as a WR for KC...and some time working with the first team as a slot type WR.
Now, I’m a little more interested in Brashard...because this WR work (from a drafted RB, who was a WR for 3 years before becoming an RB) likely means he’s see some RB and some WR work in-season...a unique weapon that doesn’t have to see full starter snaps to make an impact.
We don’t know how much he’ll be used in 2025, but my interest is piqued.
-- LAC 3rd-yr WR Derius Davis is having a camp, getting high praise from the coaches. We made some money prop betting Davis last year, and lost some on near misses, because he was trying to break out last season. I thought he looked like a real WR, not a gimmick/weapon guy...which (sparse snap gimmick) was the way they treated him...and that falls in line with the way the NFL always treats those guys...which means big plans for the 1st-series with a jet sweep or bubble screen, and then never to be seen again. Davis had a TD catch in two of his last 3 regular season games in 2024...he worked some real routes and made some nice catches...and has the speed to get open.
A 2023 pro bowl level punt returner and he had an impressive 27.6 yards per kick return in 2024. The dude can play...if they’ll let him. There is a potential problem with smaller frame/hands for fumbles is part of the concern teams have with smaller speedster guys playing legit WR....but Quentin Johnston can drop 3 passes a game and they’ll go right back to him as a starter the next series/game/season, because he’s taller and was a high draft pick.
And note from camp: QJ is racking up TDs in training camp again, so the buzz is happening again...because he’s an all-star in non-contact situations.
The NFL is bizarre....and so poorly run...so success adverse, such a ‘this is the way things are done, it’s the way I learned it from my mentor’ mentality.
-- In ‘not so fast my friend...’ news...
Man, if Harbaugh ‘fixes’ Trey Lance...
There may be a very good reason to watch the HOF game this year...
-- The Rams had real issue at ILB last season. It feels like they didn’t do much to address it this offseason, per se...but they did sign Nate Landman, a low-key signing. It struck me odd that ATL let him go...and that the Rams jumped on him...but they only spent 1-year/$1.1M, $75K guar. on him, which is nothing.
Well, he’s starting to wear the ‘green dot’ in practice. He could be the play call leader for the Rams D this season.
I thought Omar Speight was supposed to be so great?
-- The 49ers activated Ricky Pearsall (hamstring) from the PUP list. He’s back. It’s Cowing and Aiyuk that are missing due to injury. Jauan-Pearsall and probably DeMarcus Robinson are the probable Week 1 starters for SF.
Pearsall is getting the Deebo role work his first day back at camp...plays/throws to get the ball in his hands and use his high-end athleticism to make plays.
-- Man, is this a raw admission...but true.
When Breece Hall sees Wilson and Sauce getting big, new deals...and he is not...I can’t blame him, even though I agree with the Jets to not give a big deal to an RB.
What I don’t understand is -- why wouldn’t the Jets trade him ahead of this, before an ACL or whatever? It’s not like the Jets are winning the Super Bowl this season...or the next...or this decade. A Saquon Barkley situation is headed to NYJ with Breece -- unhappy RB, franchise tag fight coming next year, eventually goes to free agency and is able to shine.
The Jets have stolen his prime...he has a right to be mad. He has to keep a lid on how mad he is so that he will get touches to boost his eventual free agency value.
-- An early standout/buzz player in Saints camp...Mason Tipton. I don’t think he has a path to starting and he really fell flat on his face last year, when he got his chance...but, just noting he’s back getting summer buzz again.
-- The standout/buzz WR from the Colts camp? It’s Alec Pierce. He has reportedly changed his game up and started working shorter and medium routes, not just ‘deep ball guy’ anymore.
Pierce is on his way to starting again...while Adonai Mitchell continues to fade away.
-- I love this article...so much of scouting is how much the coaches screw up, limit, and mishandle a prospect...especially at QB.
I wonder if we would’ve ever had ‘Tom Brady’, if he had not landed with Bill Belichick...BB was one of the only, and the definite leading (by distance) trailblazing coach of his era.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
John Harbaugh/BAL
Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
