Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
7/27 SUN
(7:54amET)
-- The countdown...
4 days until the HOF game.
11 days until the preseason really kicks off.
39 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
*Camp Notes (things I am hearing from sources or seeing with my own eyes)...*
-- The buzz on Elijah Arroyo is real. All observers are saying the same thing: He’s killing it in the pass game drills (shorts and shoulder pad version)...and he’s been stand out enough that the buzz is working its way into the mainstream reporting. His visibility...his ADP is starting to rise.
-- Rookie Josh Simmons has started at LT all week in practices for KC.
-- Most targeted Chief in 11-on-11 work Friday: Xavier Worthy, 6 targets...next closest was 2 targets (Hunt, Kelce, Royals).
-- Greg Dulcich seems to be getting some buzz with the Giants in camp, getting his career back on the radar. Not sure he makes the team, but he is at least being spoken of again.
-- Denver first two practices note...the name that pops up the most with buzz/chatter on how good they look or how well they are performing is Bo Nix. The second is...Pat Bryant.
-- Suddenly getting rave reviews in camp, getting a chance with SO many injuries at WR for SF...Demarcus Robinson. He may be a starter by default, due to all the injuries...or he just earns it.
-- There is some concern starting to be whispered at Giants camp...by the media...Jaxson Dart may not be what Brian Daboll is trying to sell the world that he is. SHOCKER!
Dart has not looked good out of the gates, any independent/honest observer will tell you. Kool Aid drinkers still think he’ll start Week 1.
-- Terrace Marshall is rapidly making the case to win the #3 WR job in Philly.
-- Noah Brown is getting back on the field from an early year injury that had some worry he might miss the early part of the season. Not good news for Luke McCaffrey FF hopes...but Luke is getting good buzz this summer, regardless.
-- Jacory Croskey-Merritt is getting a ton of buzz from the first few practices (and the entire summer), which is nice...but local reporters are acting like he’s gonna bump Brian Robinson or something. That’s not happening...especially not from ‘looks good’ in noncontact drills/practices.
There is a fixation with the media that Brian Robinson is bad and must be/will be replaced ASAP...which makes me even more FF-attracted to BRob.
-- Rams HC Sean McVay said QB Matthew Stafford (back issues) will not practice next week...a reminder of how fragile going too hard with the Rams to win the division and win the NFC is. Stafford is not the picture of health.
I want to blow this off as ‘no big deal’...and then Sean McVay went on-and-on about how Jimmy Garoppolo is a top starting QB in the league and what a storied career he’s had...
-- NFL Insider Jordan Schultz reports Texans RB Joe Mixon (foot) will miss multiple weeks of training camp. I hope/you should know what my reaction to this news was. I hope you have been taking my advice for the last few months in Dynasty, Best Ball, and early redraft...
-- It only took...what? A hundred+ years before anyone thought of doing this?
Maybe next they’ll take my idea of making UDFA level QB talents from college and grooming them to be punters, so that when a team lines up to punt there’s a semi-legit QB back there...so teams never know when a fake punt might come because it’s a QB (essentially) back in the shotgun every time...the punt team can go from punt setup to quickly under center/some offensive alignment and force their opponent to call a timeout.
-- Head Coaching Hierarchy...
Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll go in alphabetical order for the next 30 days.
Well start with the two ‘A’ teams and then add one a day to the rank/tiers from there into August.
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/26 SAT
(7:42amET)
-- The countdown...
5 days until the HOF game.
12 days until the preseason really kicks off.
40 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
*Camp Notes (things I am hearing from sources or seeing with my own eyes)...*
-- The other day... Caleb Williams, and the whole 1st-team offense, was pulled from the field in the first practice for what observers are saying was because ‘everything was so disorganized, led by the QB’.
I’m anti-Caleb, and have been since day-one of scouting him for his NFL Draft, but I could see this moment one of two ways...
1) Ben Johnson is just trying to send a message right away...keep the players on their toes...trying to inspire them...he’s trying to be a coach like he’s read about in books. Ben Johnson may be guilty of ‘over-coaching’. He’s not the first to do so. It may not be much to worry about.
2) Some of the #1 (above) is true but also Johnson had great reason to lose his cool because what he has seen all calendar year with Caleb has him at an early panic point and feels like the ‘carrot’ didn’t work and now it’s desperate time for ‘the stick’...and Caleb is causing that to happen because he’s not smart or focused/serious (but he talks a good game). It could be a version of what Indy has found out about Anthony Richardson -- naturally gifted, good in the interview...terrible in reality/execution, poor worker/not passionate about the job...not getting better.
I expect the next stories out of Chicago to be ‘how wonderfully Caleb has rallied’...but we won’t know for sure until they start playing for real.
I’m going to expand on this in a report in the next couple days.
-- Note from NYG, from a source and a report I saw on the web: Wan’Dale Robinson has been one of the early standouts and a heavily targeted WR in NYG camp, so far. I hope this keeps Malik Nabers' ADP down even one spot or two...anything helps.
-- The move of Cooper DeJean to SAF is inevitable...I thought he should have been a SAF day one. It looks like Vic Fangio is heading that direction now too...
“We’d like to have [Cooper DeJean] be part of our base package, and I do believe he can play safety — it’s new for him, so we’re going to get him some work there. Then you’ll see days in the base where he will play some corner. So, it’s going to be an evolution. A lot of it will depend on how we do at those positions with the other guys. So, we’ll make the best decision for the team.” (Fangio)
-- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed said he put on weight this offseason ‘to hold up better against contact’.
Shaheed weighed in at 190 pounds this year, which is a noticeable increase from the 180 pounds he weighed last season.
This is what I like to hear for a guy who has ‘star’ potential.
-- Noah Fant is talking to the Saints, after leaving a meeting with Cincy. He’s going wherever the money is. Which means ‘probably not Cincy’.
-- So far, the Pats WR trio playing the most 1st-team: Diggs-Boutte-Douglas.
Kyle Williams has been working 2nd-team, so far.
Boutte ahead of Kyle Williams...that won’t be for long.
-- I can confirm from trusted sources...Tank Bigsby is starting to become the standout RB in Jacksonville camp. It’s Bigsby-Etienne at the top...and then Tuten down the chain from there, so far.
-- There is some RotoBlurb excitement over the fact that Eljah Mitchell worked as a #2 in one part of a drill Friday...and the blurb are written as if Mitchell has become the new #2.
There’s gonna be times Mitchell and rookie Brashard Smith work higher in a rotation because Hunt (and Pacheco) already know this offense, but Mitchell and Smith are new to it.
I am told it is still (in general at the practices) Pacheco, then Hunt, then Mitchell, then Smith...and Smith seeing work as a WR some. I think all 4 make the team, and Smith used in a variety of ways, minimally, as a WR/gadget/return man while Pacheco-Hunt-Mitchell form a trio, of sorts, led by Pacheco...but if Pacheco is still lagging when real play hits, then Hunt and/or Mitchell steps up with more touches.
-- The long, national nightmare is over...Cincy rookie Shemar Stewart signed his contract.
-- The final for this series:
QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Washington
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Bo Nix, Dak Prescott
Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold,
Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones,
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Denver
Tampa Bay, L.A. Rams, Kansas City, Baltimore, L.A. Chargers, Minnesota, Washington
Houston, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco
New England, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Miami, Carolina, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/25 FRI
(7:41amET)
-- The countdown...
6 days until the HOF game.
13 days until the preseason really kicks off.
41 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- It’s almost time to get back to my regular football season schedule...
I am planning to start the TUE night video Q&A shows this upcoming Tuesday 7/29 at prob. 8:30pmET start time. That will be the regular TUE nighttime slot. And will run that way to the end of the season.
Bring your football questions to the show, as always...Redraft, Dynasty, DRD, betting, etc.
Show notices and access will post on Tuesday’s ahead of showtime.
*Camp Notes (things I am hearing from sources or seeing with my own eyes)...*
-- The biggest offensive note of the day that I had sent to me: How much Kyle Pitts is getting targeted in the first practice...how much Penix talks about Pitts, noting Pitts was his golfing buddy, and that Pitts was working at WR more than TE.
-- Also ‘in my face’ notes from several people: It’s all about Kenneth Walker in Seattle. All the coaches talked about, after practice one, was how good Walker looked and how important it was to get him the ball. Zach Charbonnet? Crickets. I’m not even sure if Charbonnet is still on the team, it’s so quiet.
-- Spencer Rattler starting out day one of Saints camp as the QB1 is akin to Jarrett Stidham starting out Denver 2024 camp as the QB1. Tyler Shough was QB1 the next day practice...barring injury, he will be the Week 1 starter, my strong prediction.
-- I am being told Savion Williams is working more 1st-team than Matthew Golden in what an observer has been noting. I’m trying to get more confirmation on that.
-- A lot of ‘Kareem Hunt action’ at the early practices for KC. Someone told me Pacheco and Hunt are practicing more like a duo than Hunt supporting Pacheco. But then the latest practice I was told that Pacheco was the clearer lead and Hunt-Mitchell a distant #2.
AND Brashard Smith rotated in for some 1st-team work, BUT some of that work was at WR.
-- Lukas Van Ness is working as a 1st-team edge with Rashan Gary for Green Bay.
-- Cordale Flott is looking like the starting CB over Deonte Banks for NYG. I think the end is near for Banks in NYG. I bet he becomes a Dolphin...
-- Anthony Richardson ‘negatives’ keep on coming. Daniel Jones is gonna win that job by default but ‘not being a screw up’...like Richardson is getting the label.
-- More SF WR churn, but it’s looking up...
Ricky Pearsall is expected back this weekend.
Jauan Jennings is practicing while going through contract demands.
The 49ers did sign a 2nd WR from that tryout list, as I predicted/speculated...but it was because Jacob Cowing hurt his hamstring and is out for a bit.
-- The Bengals are talking to Noah Fant...this will not help Mike Gesicki’s 2025, at all, if Fant joins...just the fact that they’re talking to Fant throws me for a loop.
-- Jalen Ramsey was playing nickel in the opening Steelers’ practice...but also dropped back into safety a few times.
-- Hold onto your seats... Do you know who one of the early buzz players from Colts camp is? Jelani Woods!! My next note on him, I’m sure, will be about an injury he came up with...
-- JK Dobbins has been working as the #1 RB all camp so far for Denver.
-- JuJu Brents is back for Indy and looking better than ever...off to a great start in camp.
-- A note sent to me by an FFMer...
So, Rashee Rice has been paid roughly $5.25M from his contract to date
In 2023, he received over 80% of that total amount I believe.
Side note: S&P 500 annual returns:
2023: +26.29%
2024: +25.00%
And the guy has no money.
This note comes from yesterday’s note that Rice has failed to make his first civil suit settlement payment...that he agreed to ($500K, two payments of = $1M total).
The guy is a pure knucklehead but also leading the way among the KC WRs at camp.
-- In the news: The Akron Beacon Journal’s Chris Easterling reports Browns QB Kenny Pickett was the No. 1 quarterback in 11-on-11 drills to open training camp.
Easterling said, “It was Pickett’s day to mostly be the No. 1 quarterback, at least during 11-on-11.” The Browns are trying to make their decision on the starting quarterback soon and are giving Pickett the first opportunity during full team drills. In the modified 7-on-7 period, Joe Flacco was the first quarterback in as it seems one of the veterans will secure the starting spot to begin the season. Pickett got the most work with the starters, while Flacco was a spectator outside of a few throws.
FYI, it was Flacco that started the next day.
It looks like they are giving Pickett a chance to win this job/show what he can do...but I still think Flacco is gonna start Week 1...but my confidence in that has dropped from 100% to 80%.
Dillon Gabriel is the ‘apple of Stefanski’s eye’ and not gonna start Week 1, but is WAY ahead of Shedeur Sanders, who is working as a distant #4 QB in camp, so far.
In a practice, I think Tue. or Wed., Flacco-Pickett-Gabriel too 1st-team snaps. Shedeur didn’t...and Shedeur also had a comedy of errors in his work of bad center exchanges, and picks, and fumbles...all while (I’m told) papa Deion was there to try and influence the proceedings.
-- My QB and Team daily hierarchy ranking event is about to end (tomm.) with Washington (going in alpha order). Next up, for fun -- my head coaching hierarchy.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Tennessee
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Bo Nix, Dak Prescott
Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold,
Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones,
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
(changed up/around a few teams today, an update)
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Denver
Tampa Bay, L.A. Rams, L.A. Chargers, Kansas City, Minnesota, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco
New England, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Miami, Carolina, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/24 THU
(7:31amET)
-- Rashee Rice is not helping his case for a lighter suspension by being a model citizen that has learned his lesson and is taking care of his business -- because he has not paid his court settled/agreed upon civil suit payment to his victim.
Here are some key quotes/info from a full article (at the bottom of this page:
Kuykendall and Rice agreed on a $1 million civil settlement in April 2025, but Lenahan said Kuykendall hasn't been paid a dime, and that he's prepared to take the case out of state.
Lenahan filed a civil suit against Rice and said an agreement was reached for $1 million, which included two payments of $500,000.
“As the first payment came due, we got the call that Rashee wasn’t going to be able to pay. No money. Nil, as in, Rashee, how much money is in your bank account? Nil, no money,” explained Lenahan.
A judge also signed a judgment for Rice to pay Kuykendall the $1 million, plus interest and attorney fees.
But Lenahan said he doesn't expect payment for at least a year, if and when Rice signs a new contract. “We're not going to wait. We're going to go to Missouri and we're going to try to get the money from the Kansas City Chiefs,” said Lenahan.
-- Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon made the RotoNews blurbs the past day or so with something she said in a recent interview, but I think it was kind of the same thing she said when she took over a month+ ago...that “Anthony Richardson still has time to prove it.” And this is being taken as pro/good news for Richardson.
The key statement was hiding in the interview, and noted in this article...and I think it’s ‘bad’ for AR.
The key thing the new Owner/President/Notorious C.I.G said was "Bring a sense of urgency," Irsay-Gordon said of the QB battle. "And nothing brings a sense of urgency more than competition."
I have heard this from at least 3 Colts’ management members, about AR. If they felt the need to manufacture something for a sense of urgency from Anthony Richardson...then there is obviously a ‘sense of urgency’ issue with AR.
No team with a recently drafted top 15 overall pick QB has signed a free agent QB and then announced a ‘healthy competition’ with that QB competing with their top 15 pick QB and then boasted how great this was for the high pick rookie...nor has any team talked about the high pick QB had a ‘sense of urgency’ issue that needed juicing. If that was such a glorious thing to do for your rookie QB...why does no one else do it? In fact, they do the opposite in the NFL -- they clear out any whiff of competition from their high pick QBs, for at least the first two years.
The Colts are doing this because they are desperately throwing something at a raging problem...and they know it. They aren’t brilliant tacticians or master manipulators -- they are desperate, and they crafted a corporate speak soundbite message to save face for all.
It should not be lost that there is huge desperation here in this situation...which means the situation is desperate with AR. If he flops in August, he may be jettisoned.
-- There’s suddenly a lot of squawking about the Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons contracts...when you thought they’d be done by now. It’s starting to get contentious...as these things tend to in July/August...and they seem to always work themselves out JUST in time for the player to miss a lot of the training camp but be ready for Week 1.
BUT...
These are both edge rushers...the thing the NFL craves the most, but is the thing I think is absolutely killing teams with wasted payroll on low impact or negative impact (overall/all snaps) players. One sack a game or so with one pressure out of 60+ snaps a game is not worth hundreds of millions of dollars of payroll.
The stronger stances of the two owners with these particular two players...I wonder if these two owners are starting to ‘get it’ too on the terrible value the pass rushers are to pay huge money to?
Nahhh...
I’m sure they’ll pay up JUST in time, like they always do. I really don’t even pay attention to these daily stories on either guy anymore. A waste of my time. They’re gonna get a big deal in about/within a month.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Pittsburgh (skipped initially)
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Tyler Shough, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
(changed up/around a few teams today, an update)
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo
Denver, Tampa Bay, L.A. Rams, L.A. Chargers, Kansas City, Minnesota, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco
New England, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Miami, Carolina, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/23 WED
(7:27amET)
-- The countdown...
8 days until the HOF game.
15 days until the preseason really kicks off.
43 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- Headline: ESPN’s Jenna Laine reports Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin underwent a second ankle procedure in the spring.
Not good. Not the end of the world, but not good for a Week 1 active hope. Still might, but this doesn’t help.
I was leaning that Godwin would be mostly ready for Week 1...now, that’s a lean ‘concern’. My next projections update and mock drafts, I will have to downgrade Godwin a little more. I’m interested in him as a bargain if he was going to be back OK Week 1...but if he’s not back and/or back to normal for 3-4-5 games...and then he needs 1-2-3 games to get up to speed, there’s too many other options in his ADP range to press/push with this newly reported 2nd-surgery, even just a clean-up surgery...this is not great news.
-- On Monday, the 49ers brought in six WRs for tryouts...six legit WRs (legit for tryouts...some guys with potential to make a roster):
Eq. St. Brown
Grant DuBose
Quintez Cephus
Ramel Keyton
Stanley Morgan
Brandon Powell
Why did they bring in such a group? Because Brandon Aiyuk is not ready...he won’t be ready for several weeks into the season...AND then Ricky Pearsall is already hurt/out once again. If Pearsall’s issue were minor, I would think they would’ve brought in maybe 1-2 WRs to look at...or none, just picked one from past memories, and they would’ve just been disposable camp bodies until Pearsall was back...or don’t bring in anyone if Pearsall will be back for camp start. I think this is more about the frustration with Pearsall’s constant nagging injuries. Not that they are giving up on him, but they can’t even practice the 1st-team offense with Aiyuk and Pearsall out.
But what is also going to disrupt this, and what might be the realest driver as to why they looked at six WRs, is because they are not just gonna add one...they may add a second from the group in a few days -- because now Jauan Jennings may be a problem, contractually. He may not report/participate in practice until a deal is done.
Has any team had a worse 2025 offseason than the 49ers? Mostly all self-inflicted...and yet they are Vegas favorites to win the NFC West still...right there with the Rams now (instead of way ahead of them).
More info on the tryouts: https://www.ninersnation.com/2025/7/21/24471785/49ers-grant-dubose-ricky-pearsall-brandon-aiyuk
SF signed St. Brown the next day/TUE.
The next WR story to hit will probably be them letting Jennings seek a trade + new deal, to show him exactly that he’s not really worth what he thinks. But if I’m JJ, I am pushing the limits regardless because the other 1st-team WRs are out and the 49ers are backed into a corner.
Eventually, they will sign Jennings/Jennings will sign there...but if it drags into training camp too much -- it’s a logistical problem for SF, early on.
-- Quick PSA/Public Service Announcement...please God, enough with the Liberty Mutual commercials with Lemu the Emu. Totally unfunny...and there is never discussion of their quality of service or differentiator in the industry. They might be the greatest insurance company ever, but all I know is their stupid commercials with an Emu...really hilarious...so beaten into the ground already.
At least the Flo/Progressive writers keep it fresh. I do think (in my pea brain) if you have consistently funny/savvy/sharp (for commercials, which apparently is not easy), then you must have some savvy leadership of your business and then hopefully a well-run company behind it.
Who doesn’t laugh at the Progressive ‘becoming your parents’ commercials?
Who cares about Lemu the Emu? Or Doug for that matter? The fact that I know their names may seem like the ads are working, but not if I know them for a raging hatred of them, and their ‘story’.
When I watch a baseball game/have one on in the background while working...those Liberty Mutual ads are non-stop between innings lately. Totally annoying.
-- Panthers released LB Josey Jewell.
Apparently the injury (concussion) issues were still an issue.
From Grok:
Based on available information, the Carolina Panthers released linebacker Josey Jewell on July 22, 2025, while he was still dealing with concussion symptoms from the previous season. The financial impact of this move can be analyzed using data from various sources:
- According to posts found on X and web reports, cutting Josey Jewell clears approximately $3.3 million to $3.375 million in salary cap space for the 2025 season. This figure represents the savings after accounting for dead cap hits.
- Jewell's contract was a three-year, $18.75 million deal signed with the Panthers in March 2024, with $10.125 million guaranteed, including a $7 million signing bonus. For 2025, his base salary was set at $4.735 million with a $100,000 workout bonus, contributing to a total cap hit of $7.708 million.
- The release leaves behind a dead cap hit of $6.6 million, which includes $2 million of fully guaranteed salary. This dead cap hit is the remaining unearned portion of his guaranteed money that the Panthers must absorb.
Analysis:
- Immediate Savings: The Panthers save between $3.3 million and $3.375 million in effective cap space for 2025 by cutting Jewell. This is calculated as the difference between his 2025 cap hit ($7.708 million) and the dead cap hit ($6.6 million), aligning with the reported figures.
- Guaranteed Money Impact: The $2 million in fully guaranteed salary within the dead cap hit indicates that a portion of Jewell's 2025 compensation was already committed, reducing the net savings. The remaining $4.6 million of the dead cap likely stems from prorated portions of the signing bonus.
- Long-Term Considerations: Since this is the second year of a three-year contract, cutting Jewell avoids future cap hits (e.g., $7.833 million in 2026), but the dead cap will carry over and could affect future flexibility unless offset by other moves.
- Contextual Value: Jewell's release was health-related, not purely financial, suggesting the savings are a byproduct rather than the primary motivation. His 2024 performance (97 tackles, 3.5 sacks in 12 games) indicates he was still productive, so the decision may reflect a prioritization of his well-being over cost.
Conclusion: The Panthers saved approximately $3.3 million to $3.375 million in cap space for 2025 by cutting Josey Jewell, though this comes with a $6.6 million dead cap hit. This move provides modest immediate relief but reflects a strategic choice influenced by health concerns rather than a significant financial restructuring.
RC Note: Who takes over at LB? I guess Carolina is going with Trevin Wallace as their top ILB? Not good. It’s a projected Wallace-Rozeboom to start and then there is like NOBODY after them on the depth chart. The Panthers are LB desperate. A bad run defense just got worse.
If I were Carolina, I would try to float a deal for a legit LB...and I would dangle Xavier Legette out as the bait.
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Tampa Bay. (Pittsburgh tomm., I just realized I skipped them in alpha order!)
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Tyler Shough, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
(changed up/around a few teams today, an update)
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo
Denver, Tampa Bay, L.A. Rams, L.A. Chargers, Kansas City, Minnesota, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco
New England, Carolina, NY Giants, Miami, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/22 TUE
-- The countdown...
9 days until the HOF game.
16 days until the preseason really kicks off.
44 days until Week 1 kicks off on TNF.
-- I finished my big tri-Mock (re)Draft with commentary. I will final edit it and prep it for publish today, barring anything unforeseen...likely released sometime in the evening.
Then I am going to work on an update of the Draft Guide/Redraft and Dynasty valuations/rankings for WED hopeful release.
-- NBC Headline: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Titans QB Will Levis will undergo surgery on his throwing shoulder, ending his season.
I’m still a Levis fan, but this is another major blow to his FF-value, obviously. You never wanna see a QB getting shoulder surgery. It makes sense for him to get it now and have a full year rehabbing, and not having to worry about getting put at QB this season (off a Ward injury) and be behind this bad pass pro O-Line with an injured shoulder that he got worsened by getting hit so much last year/dropping back in the pocket for a team that literally had an open gate at right tackle.
I’m still with Levis, but this puts him a year away from returning to the NFL (2026)...then he’ll be a free agent in 2027, where he’ll sign to be a backup/developmental QB. Without some dumb luck, Levis is likely 3-4 years away from having any hope again.
You don’t have to hold on to him at all costs, in Dynasty. A lot of QB talent is headed to the NFL the next two years, and there was a lot of talent sent in 2024. The QB market is going to get oversupplied soon. Our swing at Levis didn’t work...and it’s now 2-3 years (minimum) more delayed, if it’s ever going to come back around. No need to hold for the sunk costs unless you play in a super-deep league with IR spots, etc. It’s time to take any final accounting write downs/write offs on this.
Onto the next cheap investment hopes at QB for Dynasty teams.
-- Two Chargers notes...
1) LAC signed Nyheim Hines...running back Nyheim Hines.
Najee Harris went to camp to visit with the doctors and team the other day...and then the team signed running back Nyheim Hines yesterday.
Coincidence?
Maybe.
Maybe not?
It’s been like 18 days since the ‘no big deal’/’superficial’ eye injury to Najee.
2) There’s this report on Tre Harris from the first days of offensive practice, which shouldn’t be a shock to anyone: https://www.si.com/nfl/chargers/chargers-rookie-tre-harris-first-team-offense-training-camp
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Seattle.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Tyler Shough, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
(changed up/around a few teams today, an update)
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo
Denver, L.A. Rams, L.A. Chargers, Kansas City, Minnesota, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco
New England, Carolina, NY Giants, Miami, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
7/21 MON
(7:07amET)
-- Today we start a new, quick series...a tournament style look at finding out who we believe the best defenses are in the NFL.
Not the best for FF, per se...because that has more to do with schedule layout and strength of schedule. We’re strictly looking at pitting teams against each other to find out who are the best...which defenses are the sleepers...which defenses really look awful with closer examination. It’s a quick double-check of all the defenses before the season starts...looking at their starters, extra focus on the most key positions (CB and DT), and looking at depth.
We’ll do a division a day, then the conference finals, then the Super Bowl/Finals every day through the rest of the month.
-- Noah Fant got cut Sunday. It was overdue. His contract situation was an obvious cut...but I thought it would’ve already happened before now.
Fant was due to make $13M+ this season OR they could cut him for $4.5M and save $8M+. The obvious choice became reality.
The fallout...
Noah Fant = It will be interesting to see if he can land somewhere and get inspired to play up to his potential or get used to his potential, but it seems like he has never fully clicked into his promise...and he’s made a lot of money despite that, so I’m not sure he has ‘the will’ for it in him...just my opinion.
Where does he land? Predictions...
Jacksonville = Shane Waldron is now the JAX pass game coordinator, and he was the Seattle O-C when Fant was acquired in the Russell Wilson trade in 2022. He would’ve blessed that move, you’d think. He worked with him for a few years, so depending upon his view of it he may suggest to the Jags.
Kansas City = They could smell a bargain here, if it is, an emergency chip for Kelce having any issues.
Miami = If Waller isn’t what McDaniel thought.
Sits out = Waiting for the first major TE injury to hit in August or September. I think this is the most likely scenario.
A.J. Barner = Likely Week 1 starter. A generically OK/good TE.
Elijah Arroyo = ‘The Future’...and the future just got another step closer. Arroyo is gonna matter in 2025...it’s just a matter of ‘when?’. If Arroyo rules in August...the future might be (essentially) starting Week 1.
-- Von Miller signs with the Commanders...$6.1M with another $4.4M in incentives. Why these teams continue to overpay old pass rushers is inexplicable...and typical. This signing does not move any needle for me...at...all.
Two interesting articles on a couple of young players, from the outside:
1) https://www.steelernation.com/2025/07/18/steelers-calvin-austin-private-aaron-rodgers
Man...there is so much momentum behind Calvin Austin, and almost none with Roman Wilson.
2) https://www.nfl.com/news/dolphins-rb-jaylen-wright-ready-to-be-more-involved-in-year-2
Jaylen is getting a push...and all I can say is, I thought Wright looked like the (arguably) best rookie RB in preseason 2024...and then looked like a mess in-season 2024. If he gets settled and back to his upside ways...and gets a real chance at touches in 2025, it should not be taken lightly. Not that he’ll beat out Achane in the preseason or anything...just...what if Wright is the new Raheem Mostert and this is gonna be a more split-ish type backfield ahead? Remember that season Mostert scored like 20 rushing TDs?
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: San Francisco.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson
Matt Stafford, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Michael Penix
Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, J.J. McCarthy
Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Tyler Shough, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young, Justin Fields
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
(changed up/around a few teams today, an update)
Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo
Denver, L.A. Rams, L.A. Chargers, Kansas City, Minnesota, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco
New England, Carolina, NY Giants, Miami, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Chicago
New Orleans, Cleveland, NY Jets
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series runs all month.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler. https://ffmetrics.com/5680-the-fastdraft-best-ball-and-specialized-tournament-style-fantasy-action-and-promo-code
