Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
5/20 TUE
(7:18amET)
-- The latest report on Aaron Rodgers is from his biographer, who speculated that Rodgers could sign with the Steelers by the end of May...that there is a personal issue of some sort that is holding back Rodgers from signing right now.
That report is being taken as -- oh, he knows something. I read the comments...I still think people are assuming that Rodgers only has one option and it’s Pittsburgh, so they start with that conclusion and fill in reasons as to why there is a delay now. Which it may be true, that Rodgers signs with the Steelers in the end, but I still don’t think anyone really knows...they are all just strongly hoping and assuming.
It seems like every week someone knows ‘it’s likely this week’...and then the week comes and goes with no Rodgers signing. I think it is very much up in the air, but odds are Rodgers-to-Pitt is what happens.
I think Rodgers is, to use a blackjack metaphor/scenario, splitting his aces into two separate hands here...because he can, apparently.
1) He is not going to sign with the Steelers (if he does) until official training camp time because Rodgers has no interest in attending any summer camps. He has long advocated for there to be a ban on summer minicamps, etc. He thinks they are a waste of time.
So, he couldn’t get the various minicamps universally banned for all the NFL...but he can ‘ban’ them for himself -- by not signing a deal until he’s ready to.
Rodgers has leverage, and he’s using it. The Steelers are letting him, so why not take advantage when you hold the cards?
2) With that leverage and with the desire to not attend summer camp, he can wait until June or July to sign with Pittsburgh...but then has the flexibility to sign with any other team IF something wonderful opens up, and then he doesn’t have to play with the Steelers. Who knows what QB could get randomly hurt during the summer?
And I do think Rodgers would like to sign with any number of other teams instead of the Steelers.
So, this may drag out until the end of May...or June...or July.
Rodgers ‘holds the cards’ and he is playing them. Good for him. I think the ‘personal issues’ is just the excuse and/or the talk of the option of him retiring is also an excuse for him to stay away all summer and then sign a big deal when he wants to. It’s good to see employees (the player) using their leverage over management (the NFL/its team/s). Rare that a player can have that leverage.
If you don’t like it because it doesn’t help ‘the team’, etc. Then I ask...would you rather have Mason Rudolph start Week 1/the season after attending every camp and practice there was and living at the team facility all offseason...or would you choose Aaron Rodgers to literally walk in the door on September 1st and start Week 1/the season?
You would choose Rodgers/Sept. 1st.
Don’t blame Rodgers...blame the Steelers. They could’ve moved on if they didn’t think this was their best option/weren’t fine with the delay/didn’t care about ‘camp’/’offseason practices’.
...speaking of ‘Strength of Schedule’, like we did yesterday...the Steelers on a team’s schedule totally changes perspective/impact with Rodgers or Rudolph at QB. So, what the Steelers record was last year is meaningless to their 2025 value/outlook on the schedule strength for opponents.
-- In case you’re interested, in doing some research, I asked Grok for the latest on Rashid Shaheed’s injury and recovery timeline, etc.
Here is Grok’s answer:
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed suffered a meniscus injury during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season. He underwent surgery to fully repair the meniscus, which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2024 season. The recovery timeline for such an injury is typically four to six months, meaning Shaheed was expected to be ready for the start of the 2025 season, barring any setbacks.
As of late November 2024, Shaheed shared a positive update on his recovery, posting a video on Instagram showing him walking without assistance for the first time since the surgery. This milestone indicated he was on track with the projected timeline. Given that it’s now mid-May 2025, Shaheed should be fully recovered and ready to return for the 2025 season, which aligns with the initial prognosis of being back by Week 1 of 2025. However, there have been no specific updates since November 2024 confirming his current status, so it’s worth noting that unexpected complications could have delayed his return, though there’s no evidence of this.
Additionally, recent reports from early May 2025 suggest the Saints might be considering trading Shaheed this offseason, indicating confidence in his recovery and value as a player. This aligns with the expectation that he’s likely back to full health, as teams typically don’t trade players who aren’t fit to play. Shaheed’s role as an explosive wide receiver and All-Pro punt returner makes his return significant for the Saints—or potentially another team if a trade occurs.
*RC Note* I’m hoping he can get back fast enough to get in a ton of work with Tyler Shough to hit the ground running with him this season. I’m a big Shaheed fan -- but coming off a serious injury + a new/rookie QB = sketchy for FF 2025.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- For those that have partaken of this player in a recent DRD, here’s a potential screen saver if you need one...
https://x.com/Panthers/status/1924209339490857204
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Top 600 Dynasty updated yesterday, Best Ball top 600 will update today and IDP will update later this week.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week, midweek or so.
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*Android App version may be unavailable this week as we have to file new papers with Google...there’s no more hassle in the world than the constant twists of paperwork compliance for Apps on Google or Apple. And the process is...they just freeze or disappear your App until you do the most minute thing they decided was needed that week. But it will be up again shortly, if not showing this day.
5/19 MON
(8:33amET)
-- Two thoughts on the NFL schedule release, as I’m getting to the end of processing it within our computer models and getting more and more into analysis mode of it.
1) Do you agree with the following statement/concept...? I think the early NFL schedule is way more important for a team than the later schedule...for NFL and Fantasy purposes.
A pretend example of what I am thinking: If an NFL team starts out (4-1) or (1-4) their whole current and probably future world changes rapidly...one direction or the other.
Momentum is with the ‘hot’ team (4-1)...the practices get sharper...the mood in the locker room rises...the players can taste an opportunity...the play calls can get more ‘free’ from the coaches...a loss ahead isn’t the gut punch that it is for struggling teams. A hot-start team might make a trade to keep the ‘mo’ going into.
The ‘cold’ team (1-4)...players are getting benched and/or yelled at and/or getting more media criticism...coaches feel the pressure big time and start changing playbooks, practices, and play calls...and maybe coordinators, etc. Suddenly, game #6 is massive when you’re (1-4). Trade rumor reports rise within the media. Should a QB be benched? All that, and then some, can/will hit with a cold start.
If early schedule matters more for a potential ‘domino effect’ as they go -- why is NFL schedule analysis mostly done on a ‘every game is equal’ basis? All 17 games are given an equal value of whatever value (usually based on last year’s record or this year’s Vegas win total over/under) because it’s easier and cleaner to do that, but I don’t think it’s that valuable to analyze it that way. I don’t do that in my schedule analysis. I weigh my ‘strength of schedule’ for early games over later games...but you also have to consider later games outdoors in the northeast and Midwest in December and January for teams that aren’t accustomed to that weather or any other potential weather scenarios/trends. A simple example: You’d rather play the Bills at Buffalo in September than in mid-December. That makes sense right? Statistically, it absolutely makes sense with the current iteration of the Bills with Josh Allen. But in any NFL strength of schedule you will see...at Buffalo has the same impact in the calculations whether it is played in Sept. or Dec. or any time. I just think that’s not the right way to look at the schedule.
The same goes for Fantasy Football...I don’t care what the NFL’s W/L projected strength of schedule is for (example) the 49ers (that it is so easy/favorable) -- that matters for wins/losses overall, but not for Fantasy Football impact. The impact to (example) Brock Purdy is on what the opposing pass game defensive ratings are...and not their ‘win-loss percentage from the year prior’ or not even ‘what they ranked on pass defense last year’...I think you have to interpret the defense from last year but also more importantly the free agency and draft moves teams made that impact that defensive rating, and any coaching changes.
‘Strength of Schedule’ impact on FF players is a scouting ‘art’ (you have to know the defensive opposition’s future abilities better than anyone else) THEN it is a ‘science’ (calculating the ‘art’/ratings to the overall schedule).
But we also have to consider that the early season games matter WAY more for Fantasy than it does for NFL wins/losses. Because if you draft/have ‘Player X’ and they have a brutal Weeks 1-3 schedule...then I don’t give a $#!# what their ‘FF playoff schedule looks like’ or what their overall schedule feels like -- if a player burns you early, you will cry and whine and bench and trade them, you’ll never see the later schedule with them. So, one of the things I am looking at this past week, since the schedule released, is looking at star players that could burn us off the jump...the players to avoid -- or the opposite, ones to dive in on because of the early schedule getting you (for FF) off to the (4-1) start vs. the (1-4) start.
I’ve been in the FF game for 15+ years...involved with countless teams, owners, and getting to watch a ton of subscriber’s teams and dilemmas over the years, and let me tell you something about people’s summer time FF theories -- even if they are genius, they mostly get thrown out the door if you lose Week 1 of your FF season...and if you then lose Week 2, to go to (0-2), most FF owners will totally panic and want to change everything...and I never hear (from an 0-2 start team) ‘well, I’m being patient because the NFL’s month of May strength of schedule chart that I drafted towards should go in my favor soon’. That ain’t happening -- pure panic selling/buying and benching and churning of players is happening after an (0-2) start.
So, if you wonder what I think about the ‘strength of schedule’ from the NFL media being so good or bad for whatever team or a team’s players -- my take is: I have no idea because I barely look at the NFL’s strength of schedule stuff because it is 101% meaningless to the way I live my football analysis life.
I am on a mission to interpret schedules better than anyone in the world...doesn’t mean I’ll nail them 100%, it’s impossible. But all I need to do is just be better than everyone else interpreting schedules in the summer -- and then I weave that magic into the Redraft, Best Ball, Dynasty and betting projections to try to find a way to get an edge to make some ROI.
Part of the secret sauce of FFM, to me, is...interpreting the schedules better than anyone, but the REAL KEY is understanding and interpreting things in-season week-to-week as injuries or emerging things hit and demand a reaction faster than anyone else can figure out...which is why we’re so successful streaming defenses or kickers or everything during a typical FF season.
Schedule analysis is an everyday process/grind, not just a simple look back at 2024 and assume into 2025 and never change it.
2) What do I think of the schedule release video controversies...?
I could not care less.
I didn’t watch a second of any of them. Seriously, not one second. I understand there is some controversy with one of them...I don’t even know what it is.
They have gotten so ridiculous the past few years...the video production teams for NFL teams suddenly thinks this is their Oscar winning moment, they’re Martin Scorsese moment...it’s junk food for starving football fans. And I am starving for the info too...just, all I want is the actual info...not the production team’s ‘art house vision’ on the schedule.
I’m happy that football is so beloved that the schedule release is ‘a thing’. It’s just not a thing for me...not the videos -- but the actual schedule release itself is wonderful for me to go dig into to try to find betting and FF angles. I don’t have time to watch the silly videos. I’ll watch other silly things to cleanse my mind/palette before I watch schedule release videos. Usually, I’m listening to stock market podcasts or streamers when I am doing things that don’t require full football focus/writing. Why would I watch a ‘schedule release’ video with my valuable time?
Made you feel bad if you did/you like them! Sorry. If you enjoy them...and you have a favorite team -- watch them to your heart’s content. I have no favorite team; except the team I have bets on at any given moment or big FF investment into.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Something that I did watch instead of schedule release videos the past couple weeks...?
I watched the Netflix series: ‘How Do To Sell Drugs Online (Fast)’, and I am giving it an RC ‘two thumbs up’ recommendation.
I was looking for something to watch since I finished Netflix’s ‘You’, and man was ‘You’ way better than I ever thought it would be...got sucked into that one quickly. I saw this ‘How Do To Sell Drugs Online (Fast)’ in my ‘you might like’ area of Netflix, so I watched the trailer and thought...I might like that, actually. So, I gave it a one-episode trial...after I went three episodes in I was like ‘this is OK, not great’...but I’m glad I stuck with it because it started to spread its wings and fly from there. The first three episodes are needed to set up where they are going.
Four seasons, six episodes per season. And each season got better and better...and I am really glad I watched it. It’s like ‘Breaking Bad’, only with high school students stumbling into ‘the game’ by accident and it going to places they never imagined.
I would attach a trailer for you to get a glimpse, BUT it’s a German series that got dubbed (and it’s fine/not an issue for watching)...but, oddly, all the YouTube trailers are in German. The one American voice over trailer I saw gave away WAY too much of the story.
I would recommend you NOT watching any trailer and just diving in and experiencing it because it gets twisted on plot quickly. If you liked a ‘Breaking Bad’ type series or ‘Ozark’, etc., you will like this. Even the Netflix pop up trailer when you hover the cursor over the show...don’t watch it, it spoils the experience, I believe. Just jump into it blind and sit back and enjoy the ride. No nudity. Basic swearing. The focus is more on the characters and plot and not sex or gore.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Top 600 Dynasty, Best Ball top 600 and IDP update running a day behind. Should be out today.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
**Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated Season will begin this week, midweek or so.
