RC's Daily Notes 2025: For the Week of 5/5-5/11 (Week That Was...)

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 11 May 2025

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.

5/11 SUN

(8:22amET)

-- Well, yesterday brought the semi-shocking news of Derek Carr retiring from the NFL due to his shoulder issue.

It’s not sad, to me. Carr made $150M+ in his NFL career despite never winning a playoff game (in his one appearance) and 77-92-0 record all-time. He was the definition of mediocrity. Nicest guy in the world but a very mediocre QB. He’s more than well taken care of, financially. We’ll all forget about him (football-wise) by this time next week and never really think about him again.

NFL teams ‘did this to themselves’ with Derek Carr...

Carr would never be good enough to get a team to the playoffs but never bad enough to just allow the team to blow the whole thing up and start over again. So, teams were held hostage by his mediocrity, especially the Raiders...and now the Saints are in a terrible position, worse than they were before Carr got there.

Tyler Shough is the definitive favorite to start Week 1...his main competition for that honor is Spencer Rattler, who is truly awful. I imagine the Saints will sign a veteran QB as quickly as they can...just a guy they can use to help guide Shough to his gonna-be season as a starter, as a rookie, and not to compete to start...just there as a mentor. There’s really not even a decent-ish veteran QB available who could be a mentor/possible Week 1 starter.

How far Tyler Shough has come since he arrived at the Senior Bowl as day three/UDFA type QB prospect projection, as a story, is stunning. If I told you in January -- hey, Tyler Shough will start for the entire season for the Saints and Shedeur Sanders will be taking 4th-string snaps behind Dillon Gabriel, who was drafted two rounds ahead of him...I imagine we’d have quiet the laugh as you called the authorities to come and ‘help’ me deal with my warped vision of the future.

You know, if Taysom Hill was healthy, it would probably be Hill starting at QB Week 1. But Taysom got hurt in December...and is likely to be cut for a post June 1st designation...unless he makes a miraculous recovery timeline (at age 35) and is somehow on track to return in September (highly doubtful).

For the latest on Taysom, I turned to Grok...

Q: tell me all the latest on Taysom Hill's injury and rehab and outlook for 2025, when will he be expected back, etc.

A: Taysom Hill, the New Orleans Saints' versatile tight end, suffered a significant injury during the 2024 season that has impacted his outlook for 2025. In Week 13 against the Los Angeles Rams, Hill tore his left ACL and sustained additional damage to his knee on a 4th-and-1 play. This injury ended his 2024 season, and he was placed on injured reserve shortly after. The Saints confirmed the severity of the injury, noting it as a torn ACL with further complications, which typically requires a lengthy recovery.

Rehab and Recovery Timeline

Hill underwent surgery in December 2024 to repair the ligament damage. Recovery from a torn ACL, especially with additional damage, generally takes 9 to 12 months, though timelines can vary based on the extent of the injury and the athlete’s age and rehabilitation progress. Hill, who will turn 35 in August 2025, faces a challenging rehab due to his age and the physical demands of his multi-faceted role (tight end, running back, quarterback, and special teams contributor). As of the latest update on April 23, 2025, Saints GM Mickey Loomis stated that Hill’s knee injury was “serious” and that it would be “a while” before he can participate again, indicating he’s still in the early-to-mid stages of recovery.

Given the 9-to-12-month timeline, Hill’s earliest possible return would be around September 2025 (9 months post-surgery), potentially allowing him to play at the start of the 2025 NFL season. However, a more conservative estimate, especially considering his age and the “additional damage” to his knee, suggests a return closer to December 2025 (12 months post-surgery). This would place him back on the field around mid-to-late season, possibly between Weeks 12 and 15. Some sources estimate a return by August 1, 2025, but this seems optimistic given Loomis’ recent comments and the complexity of the injury.

Outlook for 2025

Hill’s future with the Saints is uncertain. He’s under contract through 2025, but his $18 million cap hit, with a $10 million non-guaranteed base salary, makes him a potential cap casualty. NFL insider Ian Rapoport speculated in December 2024 that it’s “hard to imagine” Hill returning to New Orleans, citing his age, injury, and the team’s financial situation. A post-June 1 cut could save the Saints $10 million, though this wouldn’t provide cap relief until after the draft and free agency. There have also been rumors of retirement, given Hill’s age and injury history, though Hill himself has not confirmed this. On February 14, 2025, Hill expressed gratitude for the New Orleans community, suggesting he’d like to stay, but the decision may not be entirely his.

Expected Return and Considerations

Best Case: If rehab progresses well, Hill could return by the start of the 2025 season (September 2025), potentially ready for Week 1. This would require a recovery on the shorter end of the spectrum (9 months) and no setbacks.
Likely Case: A more realistic return, given the injury’s severity and his age, is mid-to-late season—around December 2025 (Weeks 12–15). This aligns with the average 10-to-12-month recovery for such injuries.
Worst Case: If complications arise or the Saints cut him and he considers retirement, Hill might miss the entire 2025 season or not return at all.

Hill’s history of resilience—he returned from a Lisfranc injury in 2022 after a 10-to-11-month recovery—suggests he’s capable of bouncing back. However, his age and the Saints’ new direction under head coach Kellen Moore (hired in February 2025) could shift their offensive strategy, potentially reducing Hill’s role even if he returns. For now, fans and fantasy managers should monitor updates on his rehab progress, especially around training camp in July 2025, to gauge his readiness.

-- If there is a mini-camp report (attached/below) that could make me any happier as a scout, this is gonna be a great year!

Please enjoy the surprise WR star of the Patriots rookie minicamp day one (according to this observer)...and it’s not Kyle Williams. Although he did great too.

If you don’t know the name, do a search on FFM’s site scouting reports for him.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2025/5/9/24427102/patriots-rookie-minicamp-notebook-will-campbell-kyle-williams

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Top 600 Dynasty updated Saturday.

*Best Ball top 600 and IDP update Sunday.

*New betting idea/opportunity (thing to bet on) I’m researching, will post if I go through with it. Probably will today and post about it.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

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5/10 SAT

(8:08amET)

-- Random rookie mini camp notes I have received more direct confirmation on (versus just hearsay/local reports)...

CLE = Dillon Gabriel took the #1 snaps at camp over Shedeur, which flipped everyone (fans) out. I’m not sure why...Gabriel was drafted well ahead of Shedeur. This tidbit is already starting to hit NFL and Roto news blurbs.

TB = The Sanders brother that actually is impressing, early...Shilo Sanders has received many kudos for his effort and energy at mini-camp.

TB = UDFA ILB out of Nebraska, John Bullock, is taking an early leadership role among the rookies at TB camp.

DET = College OG Tate Ratledge has been playing mostly Center in rookie camp.

DET = Isaac TeSlaa is taking time/targets at all three WR spots.

BUF = Kaden Prather is a standout at WR for the Bills early in camp...the 7th-rounder.

BUF = Many are raving about how well Jackson Hawes can catch...everyone loves his blocking, but I saw at the Senior Bowl that he had some receiver chops too. He’s showing his hands off in rookie camp.

Speaking of Buffalo TEs...

-- I have been working on Buffalo Bills things for the upcoming draft guide, and I wanted to get the latest on Dalton Kincaid’s injury...so, of course, I asked Grok...then had a follow up question/data analysis on Kincaid to go with it.

The answers were kind of interesting and I’m sharing them below...

Q: tell me what media and coaches are saying about Dalton Kincaid's injury he played with in 2024...when did he get hurt, what was the injury, and when did people know about and talk about

Dalton Kincaid, the Buffalo Bills' tight end, played through significant injuries during the 2024 season, which impacted his performance and drew attention from both media and coaches in 2025. Kincaid initially suffered a knee injury on November 10, 2024, during a Week 10 game against the Indianapolis Colts. The injury occurred in the second quarter when he dove for a slightly overthrown pass from Josh Allen in the red zone, coming down hard and hurting his left knee. Medical analysis at the time suggested a possible PCL sprain or patella/bursa irritation, as he returned briefly in the third quarter wearing a brace but exited again after just two snaps, later being downgraded to doubtful. Kincaid himself told reporters post-game that he didn’t feel good enough to run or protect himself, though he didn’t know the extent of the injury.

Public awareness of the injury began immediately, with the Bills announcing his questionable status during the game, followed by updates on X from the team’s PR and reporters like Alex Brasky. By November 11, head coach Sean McDermott noted Kincaid’s knee injury, saying they’d monitor his progress over the next few days, while media outlets like USA Today detailed the incident and its potential impact. Kincaid missed three regular season games following the injury, returning in Week 14 against the Lions, though he wasn’t at 100% and struggled, averaging just 2.7 catches and 27.2 yards over his final six games, including playoffs.

The full scope of Kincaid’s 2024 struggles came to light in late January 2025, when teammate Dawson Knox revealed on January 27 that Kincaid had played through a torn PCL in one knee and an aggravated other knee, calling it “insane” what he endured. This was echoed by media, with Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News reporting Knox’s comments.

General manager Brandon Beane, speaking on Fitz and Whit on March 18, 2025, confirmed Kincaid “wasn’t himself” due to the knee injury, noting he could have shut it down but chose to play, and had since been working hard in the offseason with a “chip on his shoulder.” Beane and McDermott also mentioned at the 2025 NFL Combine that Kincaid needed to improve his “play strength” after the injury setback. Media reports, like a March 5 Sports Illustrated article, highlighted his sophomore slump—44 catches for 448 yards and two touchdowns on 75 targets—attributing it to the injuries and noting his catch rate dropped from 67.7% in the first six games to 52.3% in the final seven. Posts on X in early May 2025 speculated about a possible right knee surgery (likely meniscus/debridement) in the offseason, though this remains unconfirmed by official sources.

Overall, while the initial injury was public knowledge by November 2024, the severity and additional knee issues weren’t widely discussed until Knox’s revelation in January 2025, prompting renewed focus from coaches and media on Kincaid’s resilience and recovery.

RC: Then I wanted to see what Kincaid’s output looked like before and after the PCL injury, because those PCL injuries are nasty hits to player capabilities when they try to play through them.

Q: can you do a comparison of Kincaid's 2024 season -- what were his receptions, targets, receiving yards, and TDs per game Weeks 1-9 last season vs. from Week 10 through his three playoff games per game numbers?

(which led to several incorrect answers not getting the playoff games accounted for properly, etc., but eventually we go there)

I’ll re-evaluate Dalton Kincaid’s 2024 season performance with the Buffalo Bills, ensuring his playoff stats are correctly accounted for in the Week 10 through playoffs period, and adjust the per-game comparisons. Kincaid injured his knee in Week 10 on November 10, 2024, missed Weeks 11-13, and returned in Week 14.

He played 4 regular season games post-injury (Week 10, Weeks 14-17), as the Bills rested starters in Week 18 after clinching their seed. He then played in 3 playoff games, totaling 7 games (4 regular season + 3 playoff games) in this period. However, I need to ensure the playoff stats are accurately reflected in the totals for receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns, as my prior calculation may have undercounted these by relying solely on regular season totals.

Playoff Stats Adjustment: Kincaid’s regular season totals (17 games, but he played in 13 due to missing 3 games and Week 18) were 44 receptions, 75 targets, 448 yards, and 2 touchdowns (per The Buffalo News, January 27, 2025). In the 3 playoff games (Wild Card vs. Steelers, Divisional vs. Chiefs, AFC Championship vs. Chargers), Sports Illustrated and posts on X note he had 10 receptions on 14 targets for 100 yards and 0 touchdowns. This means his full season totals (regular season + playoffs) are:

Receptions: 44 + 10 = 54
Targets: 75 + 14 = 89
Yards: 448 + 100 = 548
Touchdowns: 2 + 0 = 2

Weeks 1-9 (9 games, pre-injury):

Receptions: 34 catches (per Sports Illustrated), so 34 ÷ 9 = 3.78 receptions per game.
Targets: 50 targets, so 50 ÷ 9 = 5.56 targets per game.
Receiving Yards: 372 yards (per USA Today, November 11, 2024), so 372 ÷ 9 = 41.33 yards per game.
Touchdowns: 2 TDs (per NFL stats), so 2 ÷ 9 = 0.22 TDs per game.

Week 10 through Playoffs (4 regular season games + 3 playoff games = 7 games, post-injury):

Receptions: Full season total of 54 minus 34 from Weeks 1-9 = 20 receptions in 7 games (Week 10, Weeks 14-17, and 3 playoff games). That’s 20 ÷ 7 = 2.86 receptions per game.
Targets: Full season total of 89 minus 50 from Weeks 1-9 = 39 targets in 7 games. That’s 39 ÷ 7 = 5.57 targets per game.
Receiving Yards: Full season total of 548 minus 372 from Weeks 1-9 = 176 yards in 7 games. That’s 176 ÷ 7 = 25.14 yards per game.
Touchdowns: No additional TDs after Week 9 (per NFL stats and playoff reports), so 0 ÷ 7 = 0 TDs per game.

Comparison Summary (Per Game Averages):

Weeks 1-9: 3.78 receptions, 5.56 targets, 41.33 yards, 0.22 TDs. (RC note: 9.23 PPR PPG...which is like a #13-14 TE in PPR PPG in 2024)
Week 10-Playoffs: 2.86 receptions, 5.57 targets, 25.14 yards, 0 TDs. (RC note: 5.00 PPR PPG)

With the playoff stats properly included, Kincaid’s post-injury performance still shows a decline: receptions per game dropped by 24%, yards by 39%, and touchdowns to 0, though his targets per game remained nearly identical (up 0.2%). This reflects the impact of his knee injury—a torn PCL and an aggravated other knee, per Dawson Knox in January 2025—though his playoff contributions (like a 5-catch, 45-yard game vs. the Chiefs) helped mitigate the drop-off compared to earlier calculations.

*RC Note: Projecting Kincaid for 2025 is tricky...I’m still trying to get my arms around it, if I even can. You’ll see where I landed via the projections and the draft guide script (all releases in June).

And then there’s this piece of info to muddy the waters, for the moment: https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/otas-dalton-kincaid-shows-little-progress-toward-bills-offseason-mandate-photo

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*New betting idea/opportunity (thing to bet on) I’m researching, will post if I go through with it. Probably will today and post about it.

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated last Sunday, next update this weekend projected.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

=====================

*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:

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Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

And note... The ‘all rookies’ tournament/prize contest ‘Origins’ closes April 24th...it’s a pre-Draft contest/battle of rookie scouting skills, so a great opportunity to try and take advantage using your rookie research.

5/9 FRI

(7:28amET)

-- A couple of Bills-related WR notes/news the past few days that made me ponder something...

1) Gabe Davis cut by the Jaguars. Was that not one of the worst signings in all of free agency this decade -- Trent Baalke giving like $30M+ to Gabe Davis? New Jags GM James Gladstone knows what’s up. Smart move again but the Wonderboy GM.

2) The quote in the news: Bills WR Elijah Moore says Josh Allen will put him in the “best position” of his career.

When I saw that quote from Moore, I thought -- why did the Bills sign Moore...is he starting, or does he think he is? Who is the starting trio for the Bills this year?

Let’s look at it/speculate about it...

Khalil Shakir is a lock.

But then they plowed Gabe Davis money into Josh Palmer...I assume they are thus committed to Palmer? But they plowed money into Curtis Samuel last year, and then didn’t start or hardly play him last year. So...?

I guess Keon Coleman is the other outside WR starter? It just feels like the Bills are worried/cooling on Coleman...and maybe Elijah Moore was signed to be a hedge against Coleman still not clicking. There were times, last year, that Coleman looked dominant...and there were times he looked lost...just like his college tape.

If Coleman flames out...it’s more evidence that ‘athlete’ or the outdated ‘RAS’ score is kinda meaningless for whether you can really play WR in the NFL...there’s way more to it with a WR’s routes and hands and smarts than their 40-times and verticals.

If I were the Bills, I’d start Coleman-Samuel-Shakir, and never would’ve wasted a penny on Josh Palmer, who is fine/OK but forgettable in this era. Signing E. Moore seems odd. I would not have drafted Coleman in the 1st-round last year either...he’s promising but not 1st-round promising for a contender NOW/then.

So, you know what I ended up thinking... Let me see if anyone from the Bills is talking about Keon Coleman in 2025, so I asked Grok about it...then I did so on the others.

Here are Grok’s responses on various Bills WRs...

Keon Coleman: In 2025, Buffalo Bills coaches have expressed a mix of constructive criticism and optimism about wide receiver Keon Coleman as he enters his second season. Head coach Sean McDermott has been vocal about Coleman’s need for growth after a “rather rocky” rookie year in 2024, where he recorded 29 catches for 556 yards and four touchdowns but struggled with consistency, particularly after a wrist injury. At the NFL Combine in February, McDermott challenged Coleman to show more drive and determination, emphasizing the need to “stay on the gas” in the NFL. He noted Coleman’s up-and-down performance, including a dip to just 7 of 21 targets in the four regular season games post-injury, and only three catches for 22 yards in three playoff games. McDermott also referenced past accountability issues, like benching Coleman for the first quarter of a 2024 game against the Jaguars for tardiness, urging him to take a more urgent approach to his role.

Despite the critique, McDermott remains supportive, expressing confidence in Coleman’s ability to learn from adversity and have a strong offseason leading into 2025. During a March 31 media session at the NFL League Meetings, McDermott highlighted Coleman’s development as a focal point, indicating belief in his potential to become a key contributor. Similarly, at the 2025 NFL Combine, McDermott reflected on Coleman’s progress alongside other young players like Dalton Kincaid, suggesting a broader strategy of building around emerging talent.

Curtis Samuel: In 2025, Buffalo Bills coaches have expressed a mix of concern and cautious optimism about wide receiver Curtis Samuel as he enters his second season with the team. Head coach Sean McDermott has acknowledged Samuel's underwhelming 2024 performance, where he recorded just 31 receptions for 253 yards and one touchdown, often hampered by injuries like a turf toe issue during training camp. At the NFL League Meetings on March 31, McDermott noted the need to better integrate Samuel into the offense, reflecting on his limited role and production as a concern that carried over from earlier comments in October 2024, where he stated, “It is a concern of ours and that’s something we have to look at.” He emphasized finding a more defined role for Samuel, leveraging his versatility to play both outside and in the slot, as highlighted by posts on X from March 2025.

Despite these challenges, McDermott remains hopeful, pointing to Samuel’s resilience in battling through injuries and his potential to be a significant contributor. At the 2025 NFL Combine, McDermott included Samuel in discussions about developing young talent, suggesting a focus on his growth alongside players like Keon Coleman.

Josh Palmer: In 2025, Buffalo Bills coaches have shared positive but measured comments about their newly signed wide receiver, Josh Palmer, who joined the team on a three-year, $29 million deal with $15 million guaranteed in March. Head coach Sean McDermott, speaking at the NFL Combine in late February, emphasized the team’s need for speed to stretch the field both vertically and horizontally, noting that Palmer’s skill set aligns with this goal. McDermott highlighted that speed isn’t just about deep throws but also about gaining yards after short passes, an attribute he believes Palmer brings to the receiver room to open up the defense.

General manager Brandon Beane, often speaking in tandem with the coaching staff, praised Palmer’s route-running ability, noting in an April 26 Buffalo News article that he “does not give indicators” and sets up defenders effectively, with a play speed faster than his 4.51 40-yard dash time suggests. While not a direct coaching quote, Beane’s comments reflect the staff’s collective view of Palmer as a separator who can address the Bills’ 2024 struggle with receiver separation, where they ranked among the NFL’s worst in yards per route run.

Elijah Moore: In 2025, Buffalo Bills coaches have shared cautiously optimistic views about newly signed wide receiver Elijah Moore, who joined the team on a one-year, $5 million deal in late April. Head coach Sean McDermott, during a May 2 media session, indirectly addressed Moore’s addition while discussing the team’s defense-heavy draft and other roster moves, suggesting a focus on integrating new players like Moore into the offensive scheme. McDermott’s comments reflect a broader strategy of balancing the roster, but he didn’t single out Moore specifically, indicating a wait-and-see approach to his role.

RC Note...

-Sounds like Josh Palmer is definitely one of the starting trio?

-Sounds like Curtis Samuel is not totally dead yet?

-Sounds like Keon Coleman is leaning into my pre-Draft fear of his immaturity...and all these other ‘professional’ WRs (Samuel, Moore, Palmer) could come in and ‘eat his lunch’, so to speak?

-- Another research exchange I had with Grok yesterday, that might be of interest to some who play IDP. FYI...

Q: what did the Las Vegas coaches or management say about their draft pick of J.J. Pegues in April or May 2025? Any mention of him playing offense?

A: The Las Vegas Raiders selected Ole Miss defensive tackle J.J. Pegues with the 180th overall pick in the sixth round of the 2025 NFL Draft on April 26, 2025. Raiders management and coaching staff expressed enthusiasm for Pegues’ versatility and potential contributions, particularly noting his ability to play on both defense and offense.

General Manager John Spytek, in discussions with Raiders.com, highlighted the team’s draft strategy and the addition of Pegues as part of their 11 new players. While Spytek didn’t directly quote on Pegues, his comments on the draft class emphasized a focus on character and versatility, aligning with Pegues’ profile as a two-way player. Pegues himself was quoted on Raiders.com, noting how his offensive experience at Ole Miss—where he rushed for 86 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024—gave him an advantage in understanding backfield dynamics, aiding his defensive play.

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, known for creative play-calling, was linked to Pegues’ potential offensive role. On May 6, 2025, an article on SI.com suggested Kelly could incorporate Pegues into the offense, referencing Pegues’ own comments about how Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin utilized him in short-yardage situations after seeing his capability in practice. Pegues credited Kiffin for allowing him to showcase his offensive skills, hinting at a similar opportunity with the Raiders under Kelly’s innovative approach.

Overall, the Raiders’ management and coaching staff appeared to value Pegues’ versatility, with indirect indications through Pegues’ own statements and analyst insights that they might explore using him on offense, particularly in short-yardage or goal-line situations, while primarily viewing him as a defensive asset.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated Sunday, next update this weekend projected.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

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**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

5/8 THU

(7:59amET)

-- OK let’s talk about the George Pickens trade...

From an NFL standpoint:

Huge win for Dallas...they just got a top 10 WR talent in the league dropped right onto the squad and gave up nothing for 2025 to do it...just a couple of middle range 2026/2027 picks.

Huge loss for the Steelers...they just let their best WR just ‘go’. This can’t be good for 2025.

Is this actually smart by the Steelers to dump a knucklehead player onto Dallas? Maybe long-term, but this year/right now you have to assume Pickens will be on his best behavior prepping for a big deal in free agency 2026. Dallas is getting Pickens for peanuts in the year he needs to be ‘trouble free’ and puts up his best tape.

I’d trust Dak to ‘coach’ Pickens more than I trust Pickett-Rudolph-Fields-Russ to do it. Dallas has assigned WR mentors to keep guys like Dez Bryant in line as best they can. Dallas isn’t going into this blind.

And Pickens isn’t that bad a problem...yet. He’s a talker. He wants the ball. He’s not Rashee Rice or Antonio Brown level off-the-field bad, that we know of. We’ll see what happens when he gets a ton of money next year, but right now this seems/is manageable (in theory). You can deal with this from a WR...but not from a QB (Shedeur).

Part of Pickens’ issue was born out of ‘frustration’...and what WR wouldn’t be frustrated with the Steelers passing game, as a WR, the past 5+ years? Antonio Brown, JuJu, Diontae, Claypool, Pickens...they all left the Steelers angry at the offense and coaches. Was it all them/the WRs who were nuts...or at a certain point don’t you have to question the common denominator -- that Mike Tomlin has the worst offensive mind in the league and hires the worst O-Cs, and ruins QBs, and it’s catching up to him. No one, offensively, is gonna wanna play there...especially with Arthur Smith there. Wait until DK Metcalf gets frustrated and checks out on this offense...he’ll be on the trade block this time next year.

I don’t think any of this helps the narrative that Aaron Rodgers is coming in, happily, to join this offense. I really don’t think Rodgers wants to...but he may just want to swipe $30-40-50M from a team one more time, mail it in, and then call it a career.

From an FF standpoint, my first thought on winners/losers...

*And we’ll see how they project on our next Dynasty and Best Ball rankings this weekend...

From biggest winner to biggest loser, off the top of my head/first reaction:

WINNER = Dak Prescott...has a 1-2 punch of Pickens/Lamb. A HUGE upgrade from where it was the past two years, and this year projected.

WINNER = George Pickens...Plays with Dak, a massive upgrade AND Lamb takes some heat off him getting doubled all the time.

WINNER = Roman Wilson...breathes new life into his career...could be Pitt’s best all-around WR talent right this second. BUT...he’s on the Steelers, so don’t get too excited. But this is (finally) a good sign.

WINNER = Jake Ferguson...Lamb-Pickens is gonna put fear into defenses and allow Ferguson more area to do damage.

WINNER = the Dallas run game...The pass game is now a much bigger threat, which helps open up the run game...whatever those RBs are gonna be.

LOSER = the Steelers run game...the opposite effect. The Steelers have no QB and just gave away their best WR. Teams are gonna crowd the predictable, terrible Arthur Smith offense as always.

LOSER = CeeDee Lamb...Was surrounded by a terrible WR group and all throws had to go to him -- but now Pickens demands/warrants targets too. The juicy Lamb over-targeting is gonna cool by a bit...it has to.

LOSER = Pat Freiermuth...the opposite effect of what just happened for Jake Ferguson.

LOSER = D.K. Metcalf...bad QB, bad offense, and now no Pickens to scare defenses. DKM will get better/tougher coverage now and he’s not that good of a WR to begin with...dangerous deep for sure but who is getting him the ball?

LOSER = Jalen Tolbert...was the Dallas #2 by default...now his career is toast, which had to happen because he’s not good.

LOSER = Amari Cooper...about the only place who might have taken him seriously to come in as a #2, but now that’s off the table. He still may join to mentor Pickens and provide depth but he’s at-best the 3rd-wheel WR and not the #2 with Pickens now there.

LOSER = Mason Rudolph...losing Pickens is a QB killer, and even more lethal to a mediocre/bad QB. Pickens can make any QB look good...Rudolph just lost his best asset.

LOSER = Aaron Rodgers...why would he want to join this Steelers jalopy offense?

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*A betting concept/idea from RC.

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated Sunday, next update this weekend projected.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

=====================

Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code

*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

5/7 WED

(8:04amET)

-- When it’s finalized, I’ll break down the Steelers-Cowboys rumored to be (all but done) trade involving George Pickens.

My first thoughts:

Really good for Dallas. Good for Dak. Good for Pickens. Minor hit to CeeDee Lamb’s value...as #1 WRs keep taking hits to their valuation because talented WRs are joining the depth chart. It’s inevitable...and only gets worse into the future.

The Steelers are dying.

Part of the appeal of a QB/Aaron Rodgers going to Pittsburgh was -- ‘Wow, you get DK Metcalf AND Pickens to throw to!’ And that is a pretty interesting WR duo to work with (even though Arthur Smith would have killed it dead), but now that ‘recruiting tool’ just died off. To me, it’s more evidence that Aaron Rodgers is not going to sign with Pitt...or he secretly did yesterday, and now the Steelers are pulling the rug out from under him.

If the Steelers find a way to finish (9-8) and go to the playoffs again, the Vince Lombardi Trophy should be renamed for Mr. Tomlin.

Extra thought: Roman Wilson is still alive? Maybe?

-- I wrote the following late last night, before the Pickens news this morning: Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers...the rumors/’word on the street’ keep getting pushed that this is very likely happening, but then no one knows the timeline...they (insiders) just keep saying ‘it is going to happen’.

I’m not so sure.

I’m wondering, in my conspiracy theory mind, if ‘insiders’ are just saying ‘we’re hearing Rodgers is going to the Steelers’ because it is the easiest thing to report. To the mainstream football media, with Minnesota all but ‘out’ on Rodgers...it’s only the Steelers left for Rodgers to go to. So, they report it like they KNOW...but I’m not so sure they do. They may be just taking something that looks like it HAS to be true and riding it as such like they have an inside scoop.

Whenever they talk about the Rodgers-to-Steelers fait accompli, I am always left thinking -- then why hasn’t Rodgers committed yet? If he’s so backed into this one corner, why wait? Wouldn’t you want the Steelers to know BEFORE the draft...as a professional courtesy? Is he just dragging this out, so he doesn’t have to show up to any summer camps? Is he waiting for a surprise situation to pop open from an injury or whatever? What is taking so long? He can’t be leveraging more money...no one else is left bidding!

It's all very odd, but I’m just sharing my feelings that -- the football people that are so sure Rodgers is going there...do they REALLY know or are they assuming strongly and just acting like they have ‘inside info?

There can’t be a ‘good’ reason why this is dragging out so long, right?

Today’s note/thought on that prior note/thought: This cannot make the Steelers more appealing to Rodgers. I think the odds of Rodgers-to-the-Steelers just shrank a little, from whatever reality they were (or were not) prior. Mason Rudolph is really going to be the Week 1 starter, isn’t he?

-- Tyreek is giving plenty of subtle hints that he’s ‘done’ (mentally) with Miami since 2024 the season ended. But will Miami make a move (like PIT just did with Pickens), or just ignore him and hope it all works out (not a good plan)?

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/tyreek-hill-not-showing-familiar-support-for-tua-in-ranking-elite-qbs-01jth0sj5k8w

Mike McDaniel is more of a -- HOPE it all goes well...we talked to him and he said he’s ready to play...so it’s probably fine...kind of coach with his head in the sand.

The issues and concerns on Tyreek are stacking up faster and faster...at some point this is gonna be ugly. Whether it’s 2025 or 2026, who knows? I bet if Miami gets off to a (2-6) start or something bad that they’ll then trade Tyreek at the deadline. Get ready KC...your AFC West savior is only 5-8 games into 2025 away from rejoining the squad.

Tyreek’s 2025 contract says he’s staying put, unless someone is willing to invest heavy for this one year. But Tyreek’s 2026 contract is pay him $52M to play the season or cut him and pay him out $15.5M. 2025 is likely THEE last year in Miami, they’ll try to limp through the season with him...but ‘traded at the deadline’ is on the table too, as-is ‘traded in August’ as well.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*A betting concept/idea from RC.

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated Sunday, next update this weekend projected.

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.

=====================

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

5/6 TUE

(7:17amET)

-- Justin Tucker finally did get the boot by the Ravens yesterday. Rookie Tyler Loop is now the main kicker for the Ravens, which has been a decent spot for FF production during most of Tucker’s prime...and Loop is a talented kicking prospect who will now rise more in our DRD and Dynasty rankings upon the next update.

The question now just hit me... Tucker should be a 1st-ballot Hall-of-Famer, but is it now likely he has blown his chance at becoming an HOFer ever?

-- Missing out on Tet McMillan in the draft and not drafting any WRs, in a draft filled with WR talent/values otherwise...and not signing any WRs in free agency -- now Dallas is reportedly turning back the clock to potentially sign Amari Cooper back with the team.

I think Amari Cooper is ‘shot’, last year was mostly a disaster in Cleveland, and then with the Bills. This would be a terrible signing, one that I very much think WILL happen because it looks like Dallas has been taking ‘crazy pills’ of late with their personnel moves. That team used to be so clever, but now they look inexplicable/erratic (to me) with the moves they’re making...especially at WR...Jon Mingo? Parris Campbell this year? If Jalen Tolbert is your #2 WR...then your WR group sucks. It won’t get any better with Amari/25 added.

-- Those with DRDs this week, some more fuel to the fire...

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/seahawks-rookie-elijah-arroyo-im-a-tight-end-but-count-myself-as-a-receiver

-- Looming salary cap casualties over the next few weeks: AFC East

*An 8-day series...looking at today’s roster/payroll of the teams division-by-division, looking for players likely to be cut for CAP reasons, especially for the upcoming June 1st accounting trick deadline (where they can split any remaining cost over 2-years, if they want to).

BUF = They do need to create some space, they are currently #31 in CAP available...but they don’t have any OBVIOUS cuts to make. OG David Edwards looks like he is likely gone (or restructured) for a $4M savings to the CAP. James Cook would be a $5M savings to ditch, but they obviously aren’t cutting him...but Buffalo’s tight CAP situation right now does put pressure on Buffalo not wanting to do any early extension deal in 2025.

MIA = current #24 in CAP space available, and aside from that -- they are dumping contracts and doing ‘quiet quitting/rebuild’ underway with further proof with the inexplicable Jalen Ramsey cut/trade that’s coming.

But one of the reasons that they are dumping contracts that will hurt them now is...they have no contracts easy to dump. Miami is stuck in a bunch of good and bad deals they can’t wriggle out of...as Chris Grier hurdles towards being known as the single worst GM in the league (now that Baalke got gone).

I don’t see any current contracts they can dump and save any more money...it’s all gonna be painful cuts/trades like Ramsey, possibly Tyreek traded and Tua is really killing them but they can’t deal with him probably until 2027.

NYJ = Currently #14 in CAP space, so not really pressured to do much. But looking for any obvious opportunity to dump payroll, Joe Douglas didn’t leave them with any deals remaining to slide out of this month. The only player I could see with 50%+ odds of getting cut for savings this month is Greg Zuerlein, but that move will only save them $2.4M. Jeremy Ruckert may get dumped too (cut or traded), after June 1st, to pick up $1.4M savings.

NE = The #1 most CAP space available for any team, as of this writing. No need for them to stretch for any more cuts/CAP space...they’ve already ditched a lot of dead payroll already, naturally.

But there are players with contracts begging to be cut...Kendrick Bourne should be one of them -- pay $7.7M to play or cut and pay $2.8M out the door and save $4.9M for something they don’t need. And there will be teams who will want Bourne, like any of the past (or current) 49ers group that would know him well. He could plug right in for a missing Brandon Aiyuk to start the 2025 season, potentially.

Minor savings may be had with cutting WRs who just aren’t that good...Kayshon Boutte and Javon Baker...about a million savings to cut each, but they’ll likely go through a whole camp with Vrabel and he can make moves on them in August/Sept. if needed.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*A betting concept/idea from Bet The Close Chris

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated Sunday

*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.

**A new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues this week.

=====================

**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)

-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).

5/5 MON

(7:48amET)

-- Something that I really believe will happen before the season starts is: George Pickens will be traded by the Steelers.

Latest Report: https://steelersdepot.com/2025/05/has-not-gone-well-behind-the-scenes-insider-believes-george-pickens-time-is-limited-with-steelers/

I would look for two landing spots as the odds-on favorites...

1) Dallas...they have been rumored to have been in the pre-Draft discussions, but I think Dallas decided to stop the pursuit as they REALLY thought they were gonna get Tet McMillan at the #12 spot in the draft.

This could be a ‘Jerry Jones special’...where the team and management doesn’t want it, but Jerry wants to make a splash.

2) One of my sleeper favorites for this move all along...Las Vegas. A place where Pete Carroll likes to take on/rehab immature players AND my real driving thought: this is Tom Brady’s Randy Moss 2.0 move.

Brady’s Edelman 2.0 move was Tommy Mellott. I wonder if/I am thinking that Dylan Laube might be his James White?

Yes...it is that simple. Football people try to recreate what they are comfortable with/what worked for them in the past. And they all try to copy/find ‘the next ____ (star player)’ or find a player and then say, ‘he’s our _____’.

Sean Payton...drafted Pat Bryant because he reminded him of Michael Thomas. Drafted Devaughn Vele because he reminded him of Marques Colston.

What Grok said, when I asked it about Payton and if he mentioned RJ Harvey as like Alvin Kamara. Payton didn’t directly connect Harvey-Kamara, but then there was this dot-connection to Payton’s past (about RJH):

(from Grok question) Context: In the April 26, 2025, Yahoo Sports article, Payton noted that he has “heard comparisons of Harvey as a Darren Sproles-type talent,” which he coached with the Saints. The article further elaborates that “many around the Broncos saw the vision of Harvey as a ‘Joker’ back in the mold of [Reggie] Bush, Kamara, and Sproles,” with Payton having “praised all of them in the past for their versatility within the New Orleans Saints’ offense.” This suggests Payton sees similarities in Harvey’s skill set—explosive running, soft hands, and ability to be used creatively in the passing game—to Kamara’s role as a dynamic, multi-faceted back.

-- Something I meant to include on yesterday’s RC Notes’, but I forgot to put it into all the Mafah-Blue research items -- was a question I posed to Grok about Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. Below is my question and Grok’s long answer...

*And note, I feel like I’m cheating with Grok...it allows me to do what might have taken 15-60 minutes of clicking around and more time listening to videos of coaches and GMs after/during the draft...it allows me to do the research in 15 seconds. And I’m constantly amazed how thorough it is. Grok makes mistakes, for sure, but it’s minimal and using it pales in comparison to the old-fashioned way, that also had mistaken-potential. Thank you Grok!

Q: show me any quotes or reports or article quotes of what Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer or offensive coordinator Klayton Adams or will mcclay have said or mentioned on Phil Mafah and Jaydon Blue in 2025

A: Below are quotes and reports from Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer, offensive coordinator Klayton Adams, and vice president of player personnel Will McClay regarding running backs Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah in the context of the 2025 NFL Draft and season, based on the provided search results.

Quotes and Reports on Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah

Brian Schottenheimer on Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah’s Potential as Starters:

Quote: “I would hope so or otherwise we wouldn’t have drafted them.”

Context: This statement was made by Schottenheimer on April 26, 2025, in response to a question about whether the two running backs drafted, Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah, are capable of being starters. The quote reflects Schottenheimer’s confidence in their potential to compete for significant roles in the Cowboys’ running back room, though he did not explicitly commit to them as starters.

Brian Schottenheimer on Phil Mafah’s Fit in the Cowboys’ Scheme:

Quote: “Some of the things we can do from the gap schemes and things like that are things we saw Phil do at Clemson, and we really like that.”

Context: During a reflection on the 2025 NFL Draft (published April 27, 2025), Schottenheimer compared Mafah’s tape at Clemson to that of Cardinals running back James Conner, noting similarities in their running styles. He highlighted Mafah’s fit in Dallas’ schematic approach, particularly in gap schemes, indicating that Mafah’s skill set aligns with the team’s offensive vision.

Will McClay on Jaydon Blue’s Explosiveness:

Quote: “At the end of the day in the NFL, you’re looking for explosive playmakers. [Jaydon Blue] is an explosive playmaker.”

Context: In the same April 27, 2025, article discussing the Cowboys’ draft haul, Will McClay emphasized Blue’s dynamic playmaking ability. This comment underscores the team’s rationale for selecting Blue in the fifth round, highlighting his potential to add speed and explosiveness to the offense.

General Report on Schottenheimer and Adams’ Draft Strategy:

Report: “Not content to use only one 2025 NFL Draft pick on a running back, the Cowboys launched one at Jaydon Blue and the other at Phil Mafah; and both appear ready for impact.”

Context: Multiple articles from dallascowboys.com (published between April 27 and May 1, 2025) note that Schottenheimer and his staff, including Adams, deliberately targeted both Blue and Mafah to address the running back position. The report suggests a strategic decision to bolster the position with complementary skill sets, with Blue selected in the fifth round (Pick No. 149) and Mafah in the seventh round (Pick No. 239). This reflects the team’s belief in the depth of the 2025 running back class and their confidence in these late-round picks.

Report on Klayton Adams’ Role in the Running Game:

Report: “The Cowboys used their top assistant coaching position of offensive coordinator to bring in offense line specialist Klayton Adams. ... The only thing that separated them from their vision was a shiny new ball carrier to make it all happen. ... The player was Texas’ Jaydon Blue and his selection wasn’t a moment too soon. Deep into the seventh round the Cowboys went back to the well once again, adding Phil Mafah from Clemson.”

Context: Published on May 1, 2025, this cowboyswire.usatoday.com article highlights Adams’ expertise in building a strong rushing attack, stemming from his time as the Cardinals’ offensive line coach, where Arizona had a top-10 rushing offense. The selection of Blue and Mafah is framed as a critical step in realizing Adams’ and Schottenheimer’s vision for a dominant ground game, suggesting Adams’ influence in targeting these players to complement the offensive line improvements (e.g., drafting Tyler Booker).

Report on Complementary Roles of Blue and Mafah:

Report: “At the running back spot, the team likes how Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah compliment one another.”

Context: In the April 27, 2025, dallascowboys.com article, the Cowboys’ front office, including McClay and Schottenheimer, expressed satisfaction with how Blue and Mafah’s skill sets work together. While not a direct quote, this reflects the team’s perspective that Blue’s speed and explosiveness (as noted by McClay) pair well with Mafah’s physical, scheme-specific running style (as noted by Schottenheimer).

Social Media Sentiment on Schottenheimer’s Use of Blue and Mafah:

Post: “All these runs are great but that last one... Maaannn... You can see the aggression Schotty is trying to put together!! JaVonte Williams and Phil Mafah will tenderize the defensive front, leaving Jaydon Blue to cook them!”

Additional Notes:

Klayton Adams’ Direct Quotes: No specific direct quotes from Adams about Blue or Mafah were found in the provided results. However, his role in shaping the running game and his influence on the draft strategy are heavily implied in reports about his hiring and offensive philosophy. For example, Adams’ experience with Arizona’s top-10 rushing offense (averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 144 yards per game) is cited as a reason for targeting players like Blue and Mafah to revamp Dallas’ struggling run game (which averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 100.3 yards per game in 2024).

*RC NOTE* Get ready for Jerry Jones to be brilliant in this next paragraph...

Strategic Context: The Cowboys’ decision to wait until the fifth and seventh rounds to draft Blue and Mafah was described as a “calculated gamble” due to the depth of the 2025 running back class. Jerry Jones noted they could have picked a running back earlier but trusted the depth, allowing them to secure Blue and Mafah late while addressing other needs earlier.

Running Back Committee Approach: Schottenheimer was non-committal about whether Dallas would use a single starter or a committee approach, stating, “Still too early to say that,” when asked about the running back strategy for 2025. This suggests Blue and Mafah will compete with free-agent additions like Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders for carries.

Injury Context for Blue: While not directly quoted by Schottenheimer, Adams, or McClay, it’s worth noting that Jaydon Blue’s injury history (ankle and arm injuries in 2024) may have influenced the Cowboys’ evaluation of his durability versus his explosiveness, though no specific comments on this were found in the results.

Summary:

Schottenheimer expressed optimism about Blue and Mafah’s potential to be starters, praised Mafah’s fit in gap schemes, and emphasized speed (aligning with Blue’s selection). His comments reflect a belief in their ability to contribute immediately, though he remained open to a committee approach.

McClay highlighted Blue’s explosiveness as a key trait, positioning him as a dynamic playmaker in the NFL.

Adams was not directly quoted on Blue or Mafah, but his hiring as an offensive line specialist with a track record of successful rushing attacks underscores his role in targeting these players to fit the Cowboys’ revamped offensive identity.

The Cowboys’ front office and coaching staff view Blue and Mafah as complementary pieces in a broader strategy to rebuild a dominant rushing attack, supported by offensive line improvements and a scheme that emphasizes tempo and play-action.

-- Coming up on FFM today...

*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.

*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty updated Sunday

**A new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) will begin this week.

=====================

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*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...

1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.

2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.

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