Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
FRI 4/25 --HAPPY DRAFT DAY 2–
(8:01amET)
-- YouTube Livestream of day two of the draft will start at approx. 6:45pmET, a little ahead of the 7pmET start time for day two of the draft.
Our day one livestream is on demand for anyone to burn some workday or walk the dog with it.
Day two... Should be a huge DRD/FF impact day. Also, we count down our top 100 prospect contest tallies to see if we continue to dominate that national contest on The Huddle Big Board contest.
A couple instant reaction thoughts from day one of the draft...
-- Much respect from me to Jags new GM James Gladstone for the Travis Hunter trade. You want to be aggressive...you want to make a splash...you wanna get the single best prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft -- you make the deal he made.
I’ll analyze that trade overall in a longer form ahead. But my first reaction is -- brilliant.
-- One of the best trades of the day was Houston...when they acquired Cleveland picks 179 + 216 + 255 this year for Houston’s 179 and #166 in 2027.
More late round picks NOW is a smart way to play this draft...or any draft.
Now, Houston has to cash in on these picks.
-- Jeanty to LV vs. Hampton to LAC likely clinches Jeanty as the for sure 1.01 in the DRD ADPs nationally...with no one really getting cute by taking Hampton instead of Jeanty.
Had Hampton gone to Denver, then there might be a huge debate.
Where will we come down on this matter? You’ll start to see it Sunday (debut of the top 25-50) and all through the next week as we put the top 300+ DRD board together.
You cannot make any real ‘moves’ in Dynasty just yet because...what if the Raiders add TreVeyon Henderson because they want a two-headed monster RB system, they don’t want to wear down Jeanty, they love Henderson’s blocking, and Chip Kelly sells them hard on the concept? Not likely, but you get the point. A lot of talented RBs to come...what if they add Tuten or Sampson instead, later...more plausibly?
I’m just sayin’...
-- In SuperFlex... Jeanty vs. Ward, who will the 1.01 spot in the national ranks/ADPs be?
As of this very moment, that requires more thought/consideration. I see both sides of the argument. I need to see the reactions of people over the next 24-48 hours. It’s probably going to be Jeanty by a hair in S/F, but I don’t have a perfect feel for it yet.
-- McMillan to CAR vs. Golden to GB...who will be the top taken/top ADP WR in national DRDs?
I posed this question to our group on the livestream, and they thought McMillan would still be the people’s choice. I’m more skeptical at first blush. I think there will be a lot of love for the speed of Golden and the allure of GB’s offense vs. in Carolina with Bryce.
This is ‘to be determined’.
My initial feel is that it will be McMillan. The more I’ve talked to people post-Draft and this morning -- feels like McMillan got the win with the general population.
-- Most helped by landing spot day one for the DRD...
Ashton Jeanty, of course.
Travis Hunter in IDP, if you double dip scoring, is the biggest winner and immediate 1.01 (in this format).
-- Most hurt by landing spot day one for the DRD...
Emeka Egbuka landed in a strange place...unless we’re gonna find out that Chris Godwin is more hurt than anyone has let on.
Hunter in non-IDP/just as a WR scorer...BTJ will be the #1 target for the Jags...and BTJ is not helped by this at all either.
-- First reaction NFL-wise ‘Best Draft’ (day one)...
1) JAX...Hunter is two aces dealt in the first deal in Texas Hold ‘Em.
2) SEA, MIN, WSH, KC...good teams (from 2024 W/L) drafting 2nd-half of the draft and getting top half of the draft talents at the most critical position: O-Line.
3) ATL...I would not have gone this way as an NFL GM, but the Falcons do add two hopeful defensive players. Two is better than one...or none.
-- First reaction NFL-wise ‘worst draft’ (day one)...
1) CLE...weak trade with HOU to start the day...giving up Hunter for Mason Graham and more picks in the future will go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history, of which the Browns are on that historic list most recently via the Deshaun Watson deal. How does their current management structure stay employed?
What’s the point of acquiring more picks if you’re just gonna butcher them?
2a) CIN...the two mistakes waiting to happen on day one, the team that took Graham and the team that took Stewart. The Ravens are high fiving after their division rivals make picks.
2b) SF...burning a high pick on a shaky pass rusher is more of the downfall of the 49ers.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
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-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Random draft day one reaction reports will post ahead of the day two of the draft start.
*Livestream draft coverage starting around 6:45pmET+. Draft starts at 7pmET.
*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades -- Updated yesterday, pre-Draft.
*FFM top 700+ Big Board will update one last time a few hours before the draft start.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
THU 4/24 --HAPPY DRAFT DAY--
(8:39amET)
-- Finally, it’s draft day.
We’ll start our draft live stream (on YouTube) as close to 7pmET as we can...jumping on ahead of the 8pmET start to talk about some draft late rumors, last second draft bets, and we’ll take your questions and comments through the chat function, pre-Draft and all during the draft.
We'll post a link to the show and send out an App notification when the show begins...or just check our YouTube channel, subscribe to/follow our YouTube channel and you'll be notified of when videos start or post.
I (R.C) will be joined by Ross Jacobs and AndrewDFS for night one. Xavier Cromartie and Bet The Close Chris will be in the chat room, I’m sure, as always.
Night two, rounds 2-3, it’s set for me and Ross to drive the plane all night.
Day three of the draft...not sure how we’re gonna handle that yet. Might be live for round 4...and maybe 5. Still working that out. Possibly, for day three, I am thinking about just recording a video after rounds 4-5-6-7 and speed through (as best I can) each pick in the round and have reactions...as an alternative to a 7-hour/draft day three stream.
And then next week, we’ll have an open Q&A show (post-NFL Draft) to talk about the release of our Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and prep for your upcoming DRDs.
-- I have to share these notes from a Tom Pelissero article on NFL.com. I’ll attach the full article below because it’s fascinating (and might take 30 minutes to read). He asks a ton of NFL execs/coaches/personnel people their opinions on each QB for the draft. The responses are stunning on some of them.
Random ‘best of’ quotes from the article...
CAM WARD
*Comparisons to Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech in 2017 are unavoidable. "Their arm angles and their ability to throw sidearm, different crazy throws off the wrong foot downfield but staying completely accurate -- that is eerily the same," an AFC coordinator said. "The thing I see with Cam is he's so smooth back there in the shotgun, and then they do all that RPO stuff where he'll slow-ride it with the back and keep his feet in cement and just sidearm flick it to a wide receiver on a screen, or maybe he scrambles a little bit and then has a crazy throw. Not all guys can do that."
*"I don't like his body and how it looks," an AFC executive said. "But he does have poise and instincts and arm talent. Another year, he's probably not the No. 1 overall pick. I think the kid's pretty smart. You'll see it: They'll call a play, and in college, they don't rush -- he just sits back there and f---ing backyards it because he's done it everywhere he's been. I think he can be a good player, but there will be some ups and downs."
*an NFC executive said. "The guys on the offense -- he's demanding, and they play for him. But I don't know that he's figured out how to be the CEO type and bring everybody. I don't think there's an issue with his work habits. He's intelligent. He's a little bit pudgy. The bigger issue is the background and what he's been exposed to. It doesn't appear that he reads coverages very well. Or, if he does read them well, he progresses way too quickly through his reads and he tends to want to extend for the big play versus taking what the defense gives him a lot of the time. That will be hard at this level."
SHEDEUR SANDERS
*You've got Travis Hunter out there; it's not like you have to work a ton of progressions. And then he took a lot of sacks. Obviously, the line wasn't outstanding, but they weren't always the line's fault, either. He's hanging on to the ball. He's not throwing the ball away for one reason or another. He's got a chance to be good. There's things there that's got to improve. I think he can do it."
*"His college tape looked like Caleb Williams without the elite physical arm talent," an NFC coordinator said. "I'm sorry: You can't play that game at this level. So, you've got to be banking on him making a jump from a decision-making, in-the-pocket, on-time, under-pressure [perspective], where you don't have evidence of that on tape. That, to me, is why people are going to be nervous about him. He's not going to extend plays the way he did at Colorado. Nobody does, unless you're Lamar (Jackson), Josh Allen, Kyler (Murray).
*the scout said. "The character stuff is also something that factors. From what I've seen at East-West Shrine and combine, there's definitely some entitlement and special treatment that he expects.
*"The dude's only played for his dad. When things go wrong, it's not his fault. He takes a sack, he blames the O-line," an AFC coordinator said. "He can make the throws. He's got good accuracy. But does he lock on No. 1 and home in on him? And does the offense tailor for him to read it out?" Deion Sanders hasn't been shy about using social media and press conferences to fire back at any real or perceived slights he has heard about Shedeur during the pre-draft process. "You can't have your dad saying, 'I'm going to come put a quarterback coach on blast who said you were arrogant.' So, he can't be criticized?" a veteran NFC executive said.
*"It seems like his [teammates] like him. They back him, even with all the limelight stuff and going in a different car to the game. It seems like they back him more."
*"When you hear all the anecdotal stories about the person, it's not that he's a bad kid. He has been so insulated. It's going to be a culture shock when he really learns how a locker room really operates and how it really works inside a building. He's had so much input on the offensive game plan and who the coach is, and everything's been catered to him. When you walk in one of these (NFL) buildings, no one's going to give a s--- about that. No one cares who your dad is. You're going to have to end up fighting through some adversity. The plays aren't going to be called to exactly what you want to run. Even last year with Shurmur, a lot of the mistakes he made was stuff that he just decided to call at the line of scrimmage himself, and there's no recourse of him making those decisions. Whereas, in a real locker room, you make a couple of those decisions, you get your a-- ripped so bad that you never want to do it again."
*The closest comparison to Sanders' background might be that of former NFL quarterback Brian Brohm, who was coached by his father through high school and then his brother at Louisville. Midway through his college career, Brohm was discussed as a potential high first-round pick. Once the 2008 draft came around, through, the signal-caller slid to the second round (56th overall) before the Packers rescued him, making a calculated gamble he'd benefit from getting outside the family environment. Instead, Brohm crumbled. At least once, his brother, Jeff, emailed a local beat reporter to complain about negative practice reports and accuse the media of bias.
*One longtime NFL assistant coach said his time with Sanders was "the worst formal interview I've ever been in in my life. He's so entitled. He takes unnecessary sacks. He never plays on time. He has horrible body language. He blames teammates. ... But the biggest thing is, he's not that good." Said one longtime AFC executive: "It didn't go great in our interview. He wants to dictate what he's going to do and what's best for him. He makes you feel small."
*To some football minds, like my colleague and former NFL scout Bucky Brooks, Sanders is the QB1 in this year’s group. Meanwhile, another co-worker, Charles Davis, views the character criticisms leveled at Sanders as overblown and irrelevant when compared to his “talent and determination.”
JAXSON DART
*"He's very accurate. He's sneaky athletic. He makes a lot of plays," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He kind of reminds me of [Michael Penix Jr.] last year. I feel like (Dart is) a little bit better thrower, he has a little more arm strength. If I had the No. 1 pick and I had to pick a guy and my job was on the line, I would try to get Jaxson Dart in the conversation."
*"Dart is the toughest motherf----- there is," an AFC GM said. "He makes all the throws. He's got everything you want. But then he just does some dumb things. I think if you put him in the right system and use his athletic traits and his toughness and let him throw the ball 20 to 25 times until he learns the game more, learns to lead more and all that, you could have something. But this kid could also be Will Levis 2.0."
*"There's still probably some lack of maturity to his game," an AFC scout said. "Some of the flash and swagger with the face paint, the chest beating. He's a guy you probably are still gonna have some bumpers around him and he's going to need some coaching. You look at that last game against Duke, his own head coach is like, Hey, he's kind of a knucklehead, and he checks to a pass and throws another touchdown. He can probably get a little off script. You're gonna have to rein him in."
*"I could teach my dog to f---ing run those concepts," an AFC executive said. "[Kiffin] makes it very simple." However, coaches say they saw more on tape with Dart running the show. "[Kiffin] has actually gotten back to some of his old-school West Coast roots, doing some more conceptual stuff,"
JALEN MILROE
*"He is the greatest runner of the football at the quarterback position I've ever seen. And there's enough talent in the arm to make you want to play an offense that suits that," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "It's (Jalen) Hurts. It's Lamar (Jackson). It's Colin Kaepernick. There are some guys that have successfully done it, and if you want to baby him into the league that way and then let him flourish, who knows?"
*Said an AFC coordinator: "He has a lot of accuracy issues. But he's a freak. He's the best running quarterback I've ever evaluated. He's like Cam Newton's power with Lamar's speed. He can throw the ball down the field -- his numbers over 20 yards are good. And he's a true developmental-type player. He's electric."
*Said an AFC executive who saw Milroe play live: "This is the fastest guy on the g**damn field. He was outrunning angles. He's just so f---ing erratic. He's a smart enough kid, but not a fast processor. He's into all these f---ing mental coaches. Has to see it open. Doesn't have anticipation. He's the typical big, rifle-armed f---er who throws everything f---ing hard and fast and will throw a good pass and then the next five, you don't know where the f--- they're going to end up."
*"He's got a fastball that's not very accurate. He doesn't know when to take it off the ball. We heard out of Alabama all the skill [players] would've transferred if he came back. He wants to be known as a pocket quarterback and your best skill is you're frickin' fast."
*"If that guy comes on the field, that's a problem" for the defense, an AFC scouting director said. "He can develop the throwing part. But for right now, get creative with him and have some packages. He's as dynamic as I've seen running the ball."
TYLER SHOUGH
*"He's a grown man compared to kids in an evaluation standard. It works in his favor," an NFC executive said. "He's been in a lot of places, he's handled adversity, he's learned different systems and he's had to be around the most diverse group of people, going between all three schools. His floor is super high. It's just, you have to figure out if the floor and the ceiling are touching. And then, can you couple that with the durability?"
*"He did have to operate in a pro-style offense. (Jeff) Brohm trusted him," an AFC scout said. "Just like an NFL quarterback, he would get multiple plays, he could check at the line of scrimmage, make NFL calls, call (plays) in the huddle. He's done that type of operation already and shown he can handle it. He's going to intrigue some teams. Smart, high-IQ type guy. Very stable. He's already married. He comes across very professionally. He's going to be 26 (in September). The Senior Bowl, the spring process has only benefited him, because he's going to come across well in meetings -- he can talk it at a high level with coordinators, coaches, draw it up."
*"He's the most Day 1 ready to play in the NFL, no matter what offense. And there's something to be said about that," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "The injury history, I hear that, but that's not my job to think about right now if the player is talented. He reminds me of a lot of efficient guys that have played in our league that have stuck around, and he has all those makings."
*"Dude, he has clips of throwing the ball and literally spinning around and terrified of getting hit," an NFC assistant coach said. "The last person I saw do that was Jarrett Stidham from Auburn. I wouldn't take him. But he's at least a good thrower, a good passer, he's accurate." One NFL head coach referred to Shough as the "king of chuck-and-duck. You can't play in this league if you're a chuck-and-duck guy." As an AFC coordinator put it: "He gets nervous in the pocket, too. He's not good against pressure, and that's what the NFL is."
(end)
That’s (above) my preferred clips from the lengthy article/report on the big five QBs...and that’s just me clipping what I thought were the best parts, but there is 2-3x as much commentary in the article itself. AND Pelissero goes on to write about like 5-7+ more QBs in the same manner.
You wanna burn a chunk of your workday reading interesting stuff, here’s the full report: https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-nfl-draft-pro-execs-scouts-coaches-rank-and-evaluate-the-top-18-prospects-in-this-qb-class
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-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish today.
*Livestream draft coverage starting around 7pmET+. Draft starts at 8pmET.
*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades -- Some final tweaks today before the draft. Next update this summer and another update post-preseason. The scouting does not end pre-NFL Draft.
*FFM top 700+ Big Board will update one last time a few hours before the draft start.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
WED 4/23
(7:21amET)
-- The plan is for our Big Board 1.0, the top 700+ draft valued players...our top 700+, as if I were an NFL GM type of board...to post this evening.
Our Big Board is all the prospects ranked by draft grade...’draft grade’ being an overall grade 0-100% scale (but can be over 100% or under 0%) what the player talent + position value + depth of supply/demand of the position + the average payroll spend in the NFL for the position is.
Example...a QB may have a ‘6’ talent grade for us, and there be a Guard who is also a ‘6’...their ‘draft grades’ or ‘draft value’ is WAY different because of the obvious difference of a QB and an OG.
There’s also consideration of a basic ‘what is an RB worth these days’, in general, but also statistically factoring in ‘there are so many good RBs in this draft!’.
My computer model considers all the factors, weighted factors, and spits out a ‘draft grade’ as a guide.
Version 1.0 out sometime tonightET and then a little more auditing and clean up/changes (if any) plus maybe a few more prospects graded/sneaking onto the board tomorrow -- and thus Version 2.0/FINAL will be out midday Thursday well before the draft.
-- 49ers note...
I was watching some workout tape of Brock Purdy throwing to WRs in ‘private’ workouts...the WRs were Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing.
It was a reminder for my eyes/mind...we were very high on Pearsall last year, but he seems to have fallen off the face of the earth to some degree...which happens every draft season -- guys we fawn over and heated debate about like we’re trying to figure out tariff policy, then a year later we’re onto the new crop and last year’s non-instant-stars suddenly no passion or debate really. Pearsall feels lost in that wave.
We loved Pearsall (like a top 5 or so WR prospect) pre-Draft, but then he got drafted into the cluster of the 49ers WRs in front of him on the SF depth chart...then got shot. So many WR prospects of interest are going to get drafted into ‘a mess’ to affect their FF values in a few days. BUT for Pearsall, right now, things have taken a turn in his direction -- Deebo is gone, Aiyuk hurt and possibly to be traded -- Pearsall keeps inching towards the top of the 49ers WR depth chart and/or most talented list, no?
Where would current (as we know him this second) Pearsall be ranked in the DRD 2025 among WRs? Top 10? I think there’s a case. Top 5? That’s pushing it. But after some of these incoming WR rookies we love as top 10 talents for the DRD get drafted into ‘a mess’ -- might Pearsall be a top 5 or so WR, if injected into this faux/pretend 2025 WR prospect debate for FF/Dynasty? If so, or close, he’s probably acquirable for a lot less than what the #5-6-7 WR in this DRD WR group is going to go for...maybe?
The issue is, as it has been for 4+ months now...you can’t get too frisky for a trade for current Pearsall because if SF drafts one of the big gun rookie WRs, then the Pearsall narrative gets re-blown sky high.
I hate that we haven’t had our usual ‘buy now’/’buy early’/’buy this’ in Dynasty stream of ideas/reports, but this draft (and all the ones to come) is going to throw WR NFL depth charts and projected targeting in such disarray (and similar issues at RB) that you cannot confidently buy anything at RB or WR, right now, for fear it all gets blown up in your face.
Another example... Sure, Jaylen Warren just got a nice 1-year deal and Mike Tomlin said he’s comfortable with him as a #1 RB...but you know the Steelers are drafting a running back THU or FRI to blow up tht whole narrative, right?
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
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-- Trades I think will happen before or (especially) during the draft...
I got a trade rumor/prediction a day to throw out there. I’ll try to throw one out a day, up to the draft, and I’ll put a school grade on how much I believe it at the time of writing. We’ll see if any of them end up in reality...
4/23 Rumor/Prediction = Jameson Williams has unfollowed the Lions on social media...during a time where he wants a new deal...so, you know what that means -- we need to take about a Jamo trade.
I am surprised Dan Campbell has put up with Jameson (a knucklehead) this long. There are a million-and-one WRs out there to work with and yet the Lions keep snubbing taking any in drafts and rather signing stiffs in basic minimum deals in free agency. This is the perfect time to dump Jameson and upgrade to better WRs that are available all over this draft, especially where Detroit is picking (later 1st-round, and 2nd-round).
And I do mean ‘dump’...like just drop him on some weak team that cannot attract real free agents, so they have to trade for guys like this and give them big deals incoming. And the fact that he is a former 1st-rounder AND played at Alabama -- that is a siren call to many dumb teams...
My confidence grade that Jameson will be traded this week: B
To where?
Again, I think it has to be a team that cannot attract free agents but has a WR need to where they’d pay this guy money. My guesses would be (in confidence grade order, assuming he IS traded):
B = Tennessee...they fit the ‘dumb’ and ‘WR needy’ buckets.
D+ = Dallas...suddenly ‘dumb’ and would like a #2 WR. When McMillan is long gone by the time they pick #12 -- will they pick Matt Golden...or take not-a-WR, and then be in the Jameson business?
F- = Neither the Bears nor Jets (ex-Lions assistant coaches) will trade for him, because ‘they know’.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish today.
*Official 1st-Round Mocks from our Mock Draft experts are due/will be published for the official Huddle contest today.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades The (2.0/3.0) versions of each position are coming out all prior to draft day...with more of the Pro Day’s processed.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
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TUE 4/22
(7:59amET)
-- Headline from NBC yesterday: C.J. Stroud said that he’ll be “taking full ownership, running the show” at quarterback this year.
Their ‘blurb’ on it: He added that he appreciates that Nick Caley is “giving him that trust already.” It was clear that the Texans had major schematic issues with protections last year and we know that former OC Bobby Slowik had some responsibilities for the center to point to last season. Stroud said that taking control of the “pre-snap” and “having tools to put my guys in the best position” was “something we didn’t really work on the last two years.” Perhaps being in full control of the offense this year will help reduce Stroud’s sack rate in 2025 despite the loss of Laremy Tunsil.
One of the stories flying under the radar in the 2025 offseason -- the massive change on offense in Houston for 2025. Bobby Slowik may have been a big drag on C.J. Stroud’s true talent/potential...and we’re about to get a Stroud ‘unlock’ in 2025+.
New O-C Nick Caley is from the Bill Belichick and Sean McVay ‘tree’...that’s not a bad ‘tree’/resume to bring to the table. A college assistant working his way up the chain with 7 different schools from 2005-2014...he then caught Bill Belichick’s attention and was hired by him in 2015 and was in New England from 2015-2021, working mostly on offense/with the TEs. He became the Rams TE coach in 2023...then promoted to TE coach/pass game coordinator in 2024...now Houston O-C.
A feather in his cap? He was offered the Patriots O-C job this year with Mike Vrabel -- and he turned it down. Smart. O-C’s will go to die in NE/with Vrabel over the next few years. Then the Texas opportunity came up and bingo.
Houston has a ton of O-Line issues from 2024 and have churned over the unit in 2025...getting rid of ‘names’ and bringing in a lot of odd pieces from former names (Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, Laken Tomlinson) to recent, young disappointments (traded for Ed Ingram). Is Caley putting together something on the O-Line that will launch Stroud...or is he just cobbling together odd lot pieces/grasping for O-Line straws and hoping for magic?
Let’s see what they do in the draft, but so far Houston has brought in three free agent WRs and added four OLs (FA, trade) and signed a fullback. There’s a lot of effort on offensive change so far for Houston in 2025. I’m looking hard at a debate (in my head) of whether this is the time to reinvest, get excited again with C.J. Stroud.
-- Notes on our NFL Draft stream on YouTube THU and FRI (and maybe SAT for rounds 4 and/or 5)...
We are going to focus on/comment on/react to four things at once as the draft unfolds...
1) We’ll react/discuss the NFL impact...and what we think of each pick on their new team. We’ll also be trying to look at predicting/guessing what the next upcoming pick will be.
2) We’ll discuss the FF ramifications of the pick.
3) We’ll react as bettors to the picks/draft things...we’ll surely be talking about and crying about our bet results on the sportsbooks as they play out -- and looking for new bet opportunities that are happening in real-time.
4) We’ll be discussing our Mock Drafters tracking results in the national Huddle contests -- as they seek to defeat the likes of Peter Schrager, Albert Breer, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, among others.
There are two contests ‘The Huddle’ has contests for accuracy among Mock Drafters: 1st-Round Mock Draft accuracy and Top 100 prospects taken count/accuracy (they call it ‘Big Board’).
Some notable Huddle contest items going into 2025:
*Xavier Cromartie is #3 of 75+ national mock drafters in trailing-5-year 1st-Round accuracy.
*Last year, Ross Jacobs finished #6t in the 2024 1st-round accuracy contest. Ross will qualify for the 5-year board after the 2026 draft.
*Xavier Cromartie is #1t for best 5-year average on the top 100 draft picks accuracy (the ‘Big Board’ contest)...just ahead of Todd McShay and Bob McGinn. He’s a two-time overall winner in a given year. Last year, Xavier was #4t in the top 100 accuracy...1 pick away from tying for the title...that was won by Todd McShay (and 2 others).
*Ross Jacobs finished #51t in the top 100 accuracy and will qualify for the 5-year board after the 2026 draft. He is trending in the top 25 on that over the past 3 years combined.
*Xavier Cromartie is #3t in the 1st-Round mock over the past 5 years, and #1t in the top 100/Big Board contest. There is no one else that is top 3 in both accuracy contests over the trailing 5-years...except Xavier. There is no one else that is top 5 in both either.
So, when we say we have the top award-winning professional mock drafters...it’s not just a slogan, it’s a reality.
Good luck to the guys this season!
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Trades I think will happen before or (especially) during the draft...
I got a trade rumor/prediction a day to throw out there. I’ll try to throw one out a day, up to the draft, and I’ll put a school grade on how much I believe it at the time of writing. We’ll see if any of them end up in reality...
4/22 Rumor/Prediction = Much has been made of ‘no trades’ happening in the draft so far this year. And there are various theories on that...like ‘weakness of the draft talent this year’ and/or ‘bad year for QBs’.
But I think we are gonna see some trading...some high-level trading. I think picks #3, #4, and ##5 are up for grabs.
BUT...
I think there is one thing holding NYG-NE-JAX (#3-4-5) up from executing any trades...there’s a specific reason why #3 won’t be traded until draft night (if a trade even happens)...and that same reason is why #4 will hold off until a certain thing happens...and #5 is probably safe to deal right now, but they have time to wait too. No need for any of them to rush really. And anyone trading up to #5 today for something has to be worried that what they are trading up for won’t be trumped by a team then trading to #4 for the same thing.
A lot of these trades (IF) at #3 and/or #4 and/or #5 won’t go down/be announced until the pick before them is ‘in’. And the biggest THING that they all HAVE TO wait for, just to be sure, is waiting to see that Cleveland really takes Travis Hunter #2.
Most everyone has come around to realize that the single best prospect in the draft is Travis Hunter, for all the reasons we laid out in January -- back when Abdul Carter, Cam Ward, and Shedeur Sanders were being discussed 1-2-3 and thus Hunter was going to NE at #4 (was once the clear betting odds favorite to happen). Seems like so long ago.
The Giants at #3 have to wait to see if Hunter is really gone before (IF) they trade #3. Can you imagine if they dealt the #3 away now/prior and then the Browns do a Browns thing and take Carter or Shedeur and Hunter falls to #3? Ditto the Patriots if the Browns Brown it up with Carter and then the Giants go with Shedeur #3, or vice-versa on Carter-Shedeur at #2-3?
Or what if a team moved to #3 to get Abdul Carter, and then Cleveland takes him? Trading teams also have reason to ‘wait’ to see what Cleveland does.
NYG and NE have to wait until Hunter is gone before they make any pick trades. It’s now farfetched that either NYG or CLE will take Shedeur, but if I am NYG GM Joe Schoen...I have to wait until I see it happen...I agree in principal to trades ahead, contingent/waiting until draft night to see what picks #1-2 are...then I would strike a deal once I was on the clock, one already worked out ahead with a team wanting in on Abdul Carter (I imagine).
Confidence grade that the Giants trade #3 for someone to get Carter: D-...because I don’t trust Joe Schoen to do anything savvy in dealing.
Confidence grade that the Patriots trade #4 for someone to get Jeanty/Walker: D+/D
Confidence grade that the Jags trade #5 for someone to get Jeanty/Walker: D+/C- (and growing)...but so is the momentum that they might stay put and take Jeanty or McMillan here.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish today or tomm.
*Official top 100 ‘Big Boards’ from our Mock Draft experts are due/will be published for the official Huddle contest today.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades The (2.0+) versions of each position are coming out all prior to draft day...with more of the Pro Day’s processed.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
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FastDraft filled up their original all-Rookie Best Ball contest/draft, but they have no opened up another contest -- it’s a ‘before the NFL Draft’ all-rookie Best Ball draft, 6-rounds. If you’re interested in jumping into that pool, you got until Draft day.
Also, note if you are signing up for the first time -- we have a matching funds Promo Code to boost. All that info below...
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
MON 4/21
(7:32amET)
-- Draft week 2025 is upon is...
What is coming up on FFM this Draft week:
*I’m crunching a lot of the final batches of Pro Day data and scouting to finalize a projected target of 600-700+ prospects graded total over the next/final few pre-Draft days.
*We will run a 1.0 of our NFL Draft Big Board...the top 600+ prospects ranked by draft value -- their scouting grades in our system + our positional value + the supply/demand of talent at each position, etc. Wednesday version 1.0. Thursday version 2.0/final before the draft begins.
*We’ll have our last couple outstanding top 30 overall consensus prospect scouting reports out this week -- the top OLs are outstanding. We’ll also have some new sleeper prospect scouting reports out this week as well.
The scouting reports will continue to flow before, during, and after the draft--all summer/preseason.
*We will be live streaming coverage of the NFL Draft THU and FRI, and maybe a couple rounds SAT. We’ll get started prior to the draft official start each day.
*The DRD rankings will start flowing SUN night and we will continue to build the list and commentary as fast as I can all week-after-draft.
-- Just a quick extra/new thought on my ‘make sure you know about your league’s scoring situation with Travis Hunter’ (in IDP, in Dynasty) -- the question is: Will he get credit for scoring catches, yards, and making tackles, etc. Will he double dip in your scoring system? Make sure you know heading into your DRD.
Now, get ready for this Dynasty thought...
I could see a world where Travis Hunter plays both ways, as a rookie (let’s say for this example he does it right away), he plays both ways a lot...and thus could be the #1 scorer in all of FF (in IDP leagues).
If that were to happen...what is gonna stop the other 9 or 11 or whatever members of a league to vote to stop that (once they see how it’s such an advantage)? If you possess Hunter, and he goes crazy for double dip IDP/FF scoring...the other 9-11-? members of your league would have no reason to vote to keep it going/they’d have every tactical reason to vote it away the next season, etc., as some unfair advantage or anti-the spirit of FF scoring has been breached.
It could be like the ‘tush push’ in the NFL, with teams now voting to ban it. If I were an NFL voter on such things, representing my organization -- I’d vote to ban it if I were a member of the NFC East for sure. I don’t want Philly having that ace in the hole against me. I’d vote it out if I were employed by any NFL team, in any division not planning on deploying it. Why let Philly have an advantage? Why not use ‘democracy’ to vote it out? It’s conniving but legal if unanimously or majority voted out.
So, when I say -- make sure you know your leagues rules on Hunter...and if the rules/scoring are pro-Hunter double dip, should you consider making sure the ruling can’t be voted out in 1-2-3 years when it’s convenient/advantageous to? Can it even be stopped in the future? Or would you rather stay quiet and potentially plot against the Hunter possessor later?
I’m just saying...
1) I’m a conspiracy theorist on things, so I’m just using the dark side of my brain.
2) This Travis Hunter scoring in IDP is gonna be an issue, and I’m not sure/I am sure most leagues are not addressing it pre-DRD. And if leagues wake up to it...let’s say a week or month after the NFL Draft, when your DRD already happened, and you are the one who has Hunter...then there’s 9-11-? people with no reason to vote to allow Hunter to double dip before the season starts. If not before the 2025 season, when they see it ‘crushing’ in-season (if it happens)...they could look to ban the double dip next season.
League commissioners...you have limited time to get this sorted out the way the league wants it (before the NFL Draft). The ruling (one way or the other) sets Hunter, in IDP leagues, as THEE top prospect in the DRD...or drops him to like mid/later 1st-round or lower depending upon how his scoring will be viewed. It’s a big, messy issue if not established pre-DRD.
-- Small side note...I learned today Tetairoa McMillan doesn’t like to be called ‘Tet’. He prefers Tetairoa or T-Mac.
I hate that ‘Tet’ is gone, per se...because it’s annoying typing out/remembering how to spell his full first name every time.
T-Mac has that dash I have to go type, which is also annoying. It’s not natural. I gotta come up with a nickname for him that works.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Trades I think will happen before or (especially) during the draft...
I got a trade rumor/prediction a day to throw out there. I’ll try to throw one out a day, up to the draft, and I’ll put a school grade on how much I believe it at the time of writing. We’ll see if any of them end up in reality...
4/21 Rumor/Prediction = IF a team trades back into the later 1st-round to take a QB, the prime spot for sale is gonna be with the Vikings at #24.
Minnesota doesn’t have a 2nd or 4th-round pick this year. If they can get a 2nd and a 3rd/4th to trade the #24, they will. My confidence grade on that happening: ‘C’.
Who will move up to take a QB? I have no idea. After Cam Ward goes #1...there will be utter chaos with which of Shedeur-Dart-Milroe-Shough goes what round and to whom.
My gut feeling is this draft (for QBs) could be like 2022...where Kenny Pickett went #20, then QBs who had been mocked in-and-out of 1st-rounds all pre-Draft season ended up going in the 3rd-round...it was (get this) Ridder (#74), Willis (#86), Corral (#94) as the next 3 QBs drafted.
None of them are with their original draft team today.
Pick #262 in the 2022 draft...Brock Purdy.
Enjoy all the opinions and science of QB scouting for months on end pre-Draft. If we’re all so smart, why did none of us have Purdy ever being this good.
The ‘science’ of scouting is -- Who has the best batting average at it? Perfection in scouting is a flawed measuring stick...and the community lies in wait to beat you with that measuring stick once you get one high profile thing wrong. It happens in all walks of life, not just scouting.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish today.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty were updated this past weekend. The next update will hit ASAP after the draft...will take a few days to upload and re-project all the rookies.
*Positional NFL Draft Scouting Grades The (2.0+) versions of each position are coming out all prior to draft day...with more of the Pro Day’s processed.
*Daily Dynasty Briefing videos are on a pause with the NFL Draft prep crunch going on. I plan to start them back ASAP.
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**The FREE FFM APP (notes for those who have not signed up yet...)
-- The App is NOT automatically set up to recognize your FFM site credentials (username/password).
-- Sign up for the App as if you’re brand new to FFM...it’s a separate ‘thing’/brain from the site. You can use your same exact username/password signing up for the App, to keep it easy for you to remember.
-- Enable the App notifications to get a notification sent to your device when key reports are posted, and/or (especially) in-season when we get inside info/intel from sources before anyone else and it might be news we all need to FF-act on quickly before the world finds out.
-- App tip #1 (FYI): Upper Left (three lines) on App home page, click it, then click profile, then click ‘Push notifications’ – and you’ll see all the alerts we’ve sent in chronological order. App tip #2 (FYI)...if you see things posted but you got no device notification, but you are enabled for notifications…go to your phone’s ‘Settings’>Apps>FFM App>Click the Notifications off then on…like a reboot. I don't know why this works but it does to kick the phone back into business.
