Taking a quick look at the six wild card round games this weekend (+MNF), and FFM’s computer model predictions...
Chargers (-3.0) at Houston
Weather = Dome
In the 2nd-half of the season, the Texans went (4-5) with all wins against non-playoff teams, three of the 4 wins were against TEN (Wk18), JAX (barely won), DAL (minus Dak). This is not a great football team...in fact, I could argue it’s the single worst team in the playoffs this season. It’s a far cry from the radical upstarts with a swashbuckling rookie QB last season...they did not get better this year...they got worse...and the injuries have piled up as well as a bad O-Line all year...the 4th-most sacked team in the NFL.
The Chargers aren’t great either, but they are better than Houston. However, there’s been 2-3 times this season where Houston played UP to their opponent...beating Buffalo, hanging with Detroit before losing by three. So, Houston isn’t a lock to lose but they are likely to lose.
Our model’s project: Chargers win 64% of the simulations.
Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)
Weather = 30 degrees, ‘feels like’ 25 approx.
The following scoring trends/data say everything I need to know here...
-- In seven of their last 9 games, the Ravens have scored 30 or more points.
-- In seven of their last 9 games, the Steelers have scored less than 20 points.
Baltimore has held their last 4 opponents to 17 or fewer points, while scoring 30+ in those games...while the Steelers haven’t scored more than 17 in a game in their last 4 games.
The trends are so with the Ravens here but watching/scouting their recent games...my eyes see what the data says. The Steelers are dying, and the Ravens are ascending.
Our model’s project: Ravens win 81% of the simulations.
Broncos at Bills (-8.5)
Weather = 30 degrees, ‘feels like’ 20-25 approx.
This is the AFC game I am most interested in watching.
The Bills are (8-0) at home this year. Over the recent era, the Bills are great/nearly unstoppable at home in the cold in Dec./Jan. Everything seems to point to the Bills here...including an MVP, veteran QB facing a rookie QB.
However, the Broncos can bring something to the party that only they and the Eagles have...any semblance of a ‘shut down’ defense. The Broncos had the best defense in the 1st-half+ of the season, then they faltered a bit to a mixed finish. Part of the issue that pulled Denver’s D down in the recent month or so was the loss of #2 CB Riley Moss. But Moss is back now. With Moss, this is a more dangerous defense...one that can keep the Broncos in any game.
If you gave the Broncos +8.5 points (the current spread) in every game this season, they would’ve been (16-1) ATS. If the Broncos can keep this close, anything could happen late. But the edge has to go to the Bills for their experience and the advantageous homefield.
Our model’s project: Bills win 68% of the simulations.
If we follow our models, then the next rounds would go as follows...
#5 LAC at #1 KC...we’d project KC to win that.
#3 BAL at #2 BUF...we’d project BUF to win that.
In the AFC Finals, #2 BUF at #1 KC...we’d project KC to find a way to get by and go back to the Super Bowl. I personally don’t think this will happen...but with KC’s luck, I’m sure it will 'magically' happen.
================================
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-4.5)
Weather = 35 degrees, ‘feels like’ 25 approx.
The Packers limp into the playoffs having lost their last two games, and three losses in their last 5 games...and all they have shown not to be able to hang with PHI-DET-MIN...(0-5) against them this season. GB is a ‘good’ team, but not an elite team...they aren’t going far, or anywhere, in this playoff...they just don’t have ‘it’.
Philly enters this game with 12 wins in their last 13 games...the lone loss was where Jalen Hurts got concussed very early in the game...and Philly still almost won it. Arguably the best team in the NFL (PHI) facing a decent but disappointing Packers team...it could be a blowout, quickly.
Our model’s project: Eagles win 84% of the simulations.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-3.0)
You look back over these two teams’ seasons...it’s really befuddling, for each team.
From Weeks 3-10, the Bucs were (2-6), after a (2-0) start...then they hit a BYE and won six of their last 7...but beating the likes of NYG-CAR 2x-LV-NO...bottom of the NFL teams. Yes, they did beat the Chargers big time Week 15...then followed that up with a shock loss to Dallas. Tampa is very erratic, because they are poorly coached. Their saving grace is -- the rest of their division has been terrible for three years, propping up TB to three NFC West crowns in a row.
Washington won 2 more games this season than Tampa...a very fortunate team much of the 2nd-half of the season...narrowest of wins vs. NO (by 1), PHI (by 3, no Hurts), ATL (in OT), and Dallas (by 4). The Commanders don’t have a quality win all season...except vs. Philly, but that was with Hurts out...so, how quality was it?
I was with Washington initially, because I don’t like Tampa Bay’s vibe or pass defense...but looking at it more, I’m going to ‘pick’ (not bet) the Bucs to win here...and our computer models agree with that.
The more I look at it, the more I see Washington as ‘very lucky to be here’. They can win this game because Tampa is not a great team, but they’ll need a little good fortune to do so. Not impossible.
Our model’s project: Bucs win 54% of the simulations.
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams
*Game switched (Potentially) to Arizona if the fires are still an issue into this game.
Closest point spread game; hardest one to pick. There’s a definite case for each side here.
You could try and slice and dice this a thousand different ways. I think it comes down to -- did the Week 18 loss to Detroit come with a hangover of lost opportunity, a possible template to attack Darnold now, and maybe the Vikings looking ahead to Detroit the following week (might the Rams be looking ahead too)? OR...did the Week 18 loss embolden the Vikings, and we’re gonna see a team on a mission.
This is so close... I’m going with the Rams...(a) because I have good money hope from summer bets that LAR would win the NFC. (b) I like the way the Rams defense is closing the season...one of the hotter defenses in the NFL.
QB edge = Rams
O-Line edge = Rams
Defense edge = Rams
Can you name a position on the field where Minnesota has the edge? Tight end? That’s not gonna get ‘er done.
Our model’s project: Rams win 52% of the simulations.
I just realized we went ‘all chalk’ in the NFC.
The projections ahead for the NFC...
#4 LAR at #1 DET...I can’t bet against the Lions, even though I think the Rams are the team that can most likely beat them.
#3 TB at #2 PHI...Eagles easily.
#2 PHI at #1 DET...Detroit is a team of destiny, so I’m sticking by them.
