Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
The Conference Final Playoff Matchups...
AFC
#5 Texans (12-7) at #1 Ravens (13-5)
The Ravens win 57% of the simulations.
The Ravens beat the Texans again in the playoffs and finally get over that hump to make it to the Super Bowl thanks to Derrick Henry running roughshod over the NFL in the best situation he’s been in in years.
By virtue of my history with Ravens predictions...they will, in reality, finish last in the AFC North and not get into the playoffs – because they do whatever the opposite is of what I predict, so ‘short’ them now off this declaration.
NFC
#1 Rams (14-4) at #2 Lions (15-4)
The Lions win 55% of the simulations.
Another playoff rematch from last season, and this one is made for TV. You can’t get a better storyline matchup than Lions-Rams for a trip to the Super Bowl.
We think the Lions are on a mission...a team of destiny... https://youtu.be/_dnFtoc0BQE?si=VoivwPUmp7CmEUoJ
The Lions win...and if that really does happen, just this way (defeating the Rams in the NFC title game) then doesn’t it mean that Detroit WON the Goff-Stafford trade by leaps and bounds AND it means EVERY SINGLE football analyst who makes 7-figures and 6-figures and 5-figures to assess situations would’ve gotten that trade ALL WRONG. Only lowly scourge analysts like me and Ross Jacobs were on the right side of history on this deal, because we were with Goff/the Lions on this trade when no one else in the industry was.
THEY wanted Goff replaced/benched/tarred-and-feathered for years, and nothing would make me happier than to see Goff hoisting the Lombardi in February 2025, as the game’s MVP.
It would be another RC truism...I’m never wrong about football things, I’m just temporarily not-right for the moment on occasion. ;)
Patching that deal together is kinda-sorta (Detroit traded up and down with the two #1s they got from the Rams): Stafford for Goff, Melifonwu, Jameson Williams, Gibbs, LaPorta.
Tomorrow is the Faux 2.0 Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens (14-5) v. Detroit Lions (16-4)
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