2025-26 Super Bowl Preview: Seahawks v. Patriots
OK, it’s time for the Super Bowl...or as advertisers who don’t wanna be sued by the NFL call it = ‘the Big Game’. I hate hearing that ‘Big Game’ moniker...come on, it’s called ‘the Super Bowl’. Only wussies won’t say or type out ‘Super Bowl’ in their ads or content. What can they do? Sue you? Make you strike through the name of this game if you want to type it in an article or report (like TV shows putting tape over a Coke logo on an obvious can of Coke)? Please...bring it on, Roger.
I see all the analysts falling all over themselves, trying to analyze this game so they can make their illustrious pick (that no one cares about) as to who’s gonna win the Super Bowl ‘the Big Game’. I see them cackling about it on restaurant TV screens and on my hotel’s TV in the lobby -- just nonstop coverage of the event, which is fine. But the nine billion analysts and players in town for the weeklong party thinking they have some special insight into this match up and therefore ‘know’ who’s gonna win is completely laughable.
This is the most 50-50 game of the entire 50-50 game tournament that’s been going on the past month.
New England is lucky they are even here. They should’ve been bounced by the Broncos, but apparently Sean Payton bet on the Patriots or something with his, once again, terrible decision making in-game...possibly brought on once he lost Bo Nix.
Seattle has played much better in these playoffs, but they’re also lucky to be here. Lucky they beat the Rams Week 16 to give them the path to getting the #1 seed, which gave them an extra boost for the tournament and then they’re lucky the Rams didn’t beat them in the conference finals. And I’m not saying that as if Seattle isn’t worthy...it’s a huge credit to them for beating the best team in football (the Rams) two times in the last two months (with a ton of breaks going their way). But Seattle was very much on the verge of it all going a different direction, the direction it ultimately went for the Rams, so we have to acknowledge Seattle is fortunate to be here in the title game.
How do I see this game, besides a 50-50 game?
If I really just try to analyze the two teams and not mention how referee calls or an in-game injury will be the factor that changes everything, and it will be nothing about ‘the matchup’...then I simply think these are two pretty evenly matched teams.
Both teams have top-tier defenses in the NFL, but they’re not THEE TOP/impenetrable. Both teams are very difficult to run on...and to pass on. Both teams have capable quarterbacks. Both teams have very good leaders at head coach.
.
There are four things that come to mind that I think might separate them and give the edge to one of them…
1) The thing I always go to first now is = the offensive line. And that advantage goes to Seattle.
Both offensive lines were OK/mediocre grade this season, but Seattle has really been coming on as rookie Gray Zabel is becoming the potential differential in this game.
When I think of the teams that passed up drafting Zabel it completely frustrates me but then I also realize the NFL just wasted money on naming a Chief Kindness Officer, so all bets are off if you’re gonna try to apply logic to the way anything or any team is run in the NFL
Advantage Seattle.
2) I would also give the coaching advantage to Seattle. The coaching staff is the co-most important thing I look at judging between two teams in this era (with the O-Line). And I think the Seattle advantage of having Klint Kubiak as a better, fresher, offensive mind might do the trick over Josh McDaniels.
3) Seattle has a long-time veteran kicker, Jason Myers...the Pats have a rookie kicker in Andy Borregales. In a game with a lot of FG potential, experience here may be a huge key.
4) The final edge that goes to Seattle, but I don’t know that they’ll even try to take it, is the Seahawks possessed Rashid Shaheed…and he’s the one guy that can change the game in a blink…but they hardly use him anywhere near how much they should. Seattle has this extra piece of arsenal, but they continue to not want to use it. If they use this two-week opportunity to plan things for Shaheed in this game, that alone could change a 50-50 game to tilt to Seattle
The X-factor that keeps New England hopes alive is that Drake Maye is the best playmaker in this game. Maybe he’ll be overwhelmed by the moment…or maybe he’ll be carefree because he’s so young he can delusionally assume he’ll have another opportunity. But this may be Sam Donald’s only chance for the rest of his career to be the starting QB or a Super Bowl ‘the Big Game’ team...and that may take what most people would think is an experience advantage and turn it into a Darnold plays too tightly advantage to the Patriots. Just thinking out loud.
However it is that you’ll be watching, I hope you enjoy the Super Bowl ‘the Big Game’ thoroughly. I will be watching with my son who is coming into town just to watch it with his old man *INSERT CATS IN THE CRADLE by James Taylor here*
The Discord Chat will be open for anyone wanting to make fun of/watch the game Sunday.
.
BETTING:
For betting purposes, I’ll pick Seattle for the 50/50 win.
I’ll take the +4.5 with the Patriots in a 50/50 game.
.
Props of interest (in order of interest and from DK odds):
*I can’t bet these in Florida, so I’ll be on the prediction markets.
MED-HIGH
Austin Hooper OVER 7.5 rec. yards (-117)
MEDIUM
Rashid Shaheed OVER 22.5 rec. yards (-115)
LOW
Mack Hollins OVER 27.5 rec. yards (-111)
Sam Darnold OVER 5.5 rush yds (-115)
