Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
The Divisional Playoff Matchups...
AFC
#6 Bengals (11-7) at #1 Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens win 53% of the simulations.
The Ravens get an extra week to prepare and home field, and always play the Bengals tough...and they ride all those advantages to victory over the Bengals, who would then be at a crossroads of what to do from here as an organization.
#5 Texans (11-7) at #2 Bills (12-6)
The Texans win 51% of the simulations.
How about Stefon Diggs and the Texans go to Buffalo in January 2025? A made-for-TV matchup. The Bills fall short in the playoffs once again. Instead of Mahomes getting them in the last seconds...this time it’s the new Mahomes, C.J. Stroud.
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NFC
#6 Packers (12-6) at #1 Rams (13-4)
The Rams win 67% of the simulations.
The Rams with a week to prepare, and a week of rest for Stafford are too much for the Packers. A win aided by a late-season returning Aaron Donald...
#5 49ers (13-5) at #2 Lions (14-4)
The Lions win 58% of the simulations.
The Lions got the playoff win they had last year over SF...but blew it late...not this time. Detroit are more battle tested this year...and are too good and too focused, and they get past the experienced 49ers who continue to fall just short in the playoffs.
To keep the great storylines going in the NFL playoffs, the Lions and Rams will have the Goff-Stafford trade showdown to see who goes to the Faux Super Bowl.
The Conference Finals tomorrow...
#5 Texans (12-7) at #1 Ravens (13-5)
#1 Rams (14-4) at #2 Lions (15-4)
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