Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
The NFC Wild Card Playoffs Matchups...
#1 Rams (13-4) BYE
#5 49ers (12-5) at #4 Falcons (10-7)
The 49ers win 74% of the simulations.
The experienced 49ers take down the Falcons, who are much improved...but also got over on a very weak division. They would get spanked in this situation.
#6 Packers (11-6) at #3 Eagles (10-7)
The Packers win 57% of the simulations.
If the Packers were in the NFC East, they would’ve won it going away. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and his sorry staff are swept away for a new regime coming in for 2025.
#7 Cardinals (8-9) at #2 Lions (13-4)
The Lions win 88% of the simulations.
The Cardinals scrapped their way to the playoffs, but they are nowhere near ready to take on the Lions at Detroit.
Next round matchups...
#6 Packers (12-6) at #1 Rams (13-4)
#5 49ers (13-5) at #2 Lions (14-4)
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