Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 16-18...
-- The regular season is over! The best record in Faux 2.0? A two team tie...
The Rams (13-4)...a ‘great’ projection, but that’s assuming an always healthy Matt Stafford. Stafford goes down early in the season and the Rams will be wild card material.
The Lions (13-4)...if Jared Goff goes down, it’s ‘over’. At least the Rams were smart enough to get Jimmy G. insurance. But my prediction is – if Goff went down Weeks 1-2-3-4-5, the Lions would pay a mint to get Andy Dalton from the Panthers. Just put me down for that crystal ball. If I were the Lions, I’d offer them Hendon Hooker and a 3rd or later pick for Dalton in a crisis.
-- Worst record in Faux 2.0, the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft? Three in-a-row for the Carolina Teppers (3-14). They don’t need Andy Dalton...actually, they do but that’s a different issue altogether...
-- The Bills (11-6) take the AFC East, as the Jets fall out of the race and the wild card...and the mass firings will begin in NY.
-- The Ravens (12-5) seize the AFC North...2 games ahead of CIN-CLE (10-7). Mike Tomlin has his first losing season (7-10).
-- The Colts (11-6) shock the AFC South by winning the division outright AND thus HOU-TEN (10-6) fight for wild cards with CIN-CLE. One of those 4 teams will miss the playoffs as a 10-win team. You’ll find out which one...tomorrow.
-- The Chiefs (11-6) take the AFC West over LAC (9-8), who misses the wild card as well despite a winning record.
-- The Eagles (10-7) win the NFC East...holding off a late surge from Dallas (8-9) and a fade by the one-time division leading Commanders (8-9).
-- The Lions (13-4) zoom past Green Bay (11-6) for the NFC North crown.
-- The Falcons (10-7) win the NFC South by 3 games over TB (7-10).
-- The Rams (13-4) hold off the 49ers (12-5) for the NFC west crown. The Rams or the Lions are the NFC #1 seed...we’ll find out which is the top seed...tomorrow.
-- SF (12-5) and Green Bay (11-6) are two of the 3 NFC wild cards...but who is the other wild card? It’s between losing record (8-9) teams: DAL-WSH-ARI. Find out...tomorrow...who got in last!
Tomorrow we’ll answer all the final playoff qualifier questions and play out the wild card round!
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| NYJ | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| MIA | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| NE | …. | 4 | - | 13 | = | 0.235 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| CIN | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| CLE | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| PIT | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| IND | … | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| HOU | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| TEN | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| JAX | … | 6 | - | 11 | = | 0.353 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| LAC | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| LV | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| DEN | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| DAL | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| WSH | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| NYG | … | 5 | - | 12 | = | 0.294 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 13 | - | 4 | = | 0.765 |
| GB | …. | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| MIN | … | 5 | - | 12 | = | 0.294 |
| CHI | … | 4 | - | 13 | = | 0.235 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| TB | …. | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| NO | …. | 6 | - | 11 | = | 0.353 |
| CAR | … | 3 | - | 14 | = | 0.176 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 13 | - | 4 | = | 0.765 |
| SF | …. | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| ARI | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| SEA | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
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