Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 10-12...
-- Best records in the Faux 2.0, at this stage...the 49ers and Rams both (9-2). Next best? The Packers (8-3).
-- Worst record? Oh, look...the Carolina Teppers (2-10) found their way to their destiny.
-- The Bills lead the AFC East (7-4), but Miami and the Jets (6-5) are staying on their heels.
-- The Ravens (8-4) now lead the AFC North over CIN-CLE both (7-4).
-- The Colts and Texans (7-5) continue their dog fight for the AFC South.
-- The Chiefs (7-4) continue to hold a lead over LAC (6-5) in the AFC West.
-- WHOA...the Commanders (7-5) take the lead in the NFC East! The Eagles (6-5) slip behind them. Dallas (4-7) is a half game out of last place...Jerry is probably freaking out right here.
-- Green Bay (8-3) holds a game lead over Detroit (7-4) in the NFC North.
-- Another surprise...the Falcons are now tied for the NFC South with the Saints...both teams with a losing record (5-6).
-- SF and LAR (9-2) have a 3+ games lead over the rest of the NFC West.
-- Biggest +/- changes from Faux 1.0 (May) to 2.0 (July)
+2 wins = ARI
-2 wins = HOU
-2 wins = IND
-2 wins = ATL
All the other teams either a +/- 1 win or exact to last Faux, at this stage
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| NYJ | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| MIA | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| NE | …. | 3 | - | 9 | = | 0.250 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 8 | - | 4 | = | 0.667 |
| CIN | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| CLE | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| PIT | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| IND | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| HOU | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| TEN | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| JAX | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| LAC | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| LV | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| DEN | … | 4 | - | 8 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| WSH | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| PHI | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| DAL | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| NYG | … | 4 | - | 8 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| GB | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| DET | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| CHI | … | 3 | - | 8 | = | 0.273 |
| MIN | …. | 2 | - | 9 | = | 0.182 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| NO | …. | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| TB | …. | 3 | - | 9 | = | 0.250 |
| CAR | … | 2 | - | 10 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SF | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
| LAR | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
| SEA | …. | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| ARI | … | 5 | - | 7 | = | 0.417 |
Tomorrow we’ll see what Weeks 13-15 brings us.
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