Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 4-6...
-- All the undefeated and winless teams are no more!
-- BAL, CIN, SF have the best records in the Faux 2.0 at (5-1).
-- MIN, CHI, DEN, TB, CAR have all sunk to the bottom of the league at (1-5).
-- The Jets lead the AFC East at (4-2) chased by BUF-MIA at (3-3).
-- CIN-BAL (5-1) are moving away from PIT-CLE (3-3) in the AFC North.
-- Houston (4-2) sits atop the AFC South with the rest of the division all sitting at 3 wins/1-game right behind them.
-- KC and LAC are tied for the AFC West lead at (3-2)...LV is at (3-3) behind them.
-- The Eagles (3-2) lead the NFC East with all the other teams at 2 wins.
-- Detroit (4-1) has a slight lead over GB (4-2) in the NFC North.
-- ATL and NO (3-3) are tied for the NFC West lead.
-- SF (5-1) has a slight lead over LAR (4-1) for the NFC West.
Tomorrow, we’ll see where we are at when Weeks 6-9 playing out.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| MIA | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| BUF | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| CIN | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| PIT | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| CLE | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| TEN | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| IND | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| JAX | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| LAC | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| LV | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| DEN | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| DAL | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| WSH | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 4 | - | 1 | = | 0.800 |
| GB | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| MIN | …. | 1 | - | 4 | = | 0.200 |
| CHI | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NO | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| TB | …. | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| CAR | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SF | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| LAR | … | 4 | - | 1 | = | 0.800 |
| SEA | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| ARI | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
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