Using the rosters as they are as of July 1st (version 2.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 1-3...
-- Just two teams go undefeated in the first three weeks...
Buffalo (3-0) beating ARI, at MIA, JAX
Cincinnati (3-0) beating NE, at KC, WSH
-- Four teams start out winless...
Denver (0-3)
Chicago (0-3)
Minnesota (0-3)
Carolina (0-3)
-- Buffalo (3-0) has a one game lead over the Jets (2-1) in the AFC East.
-- The Bengals (3-0) start out undefeated, but that’s just a one game lead over the other three teams in the AFC North, who are all (2-1).
-- The Titans (2-1), Colts (2-1) and Texans (2-1) start out tied for the AFC South lead.
-- The Chargers (2-1) lead the AFC West over KC (1-2) and will play them Week 4 in a huge game that the Chargers have always coughed up against KC in recently...anytime LAC gets close to getting over on KC, they blow it. Can Harbaugh fix that?
-- A surprise in the NFC East...the Commanders (2-1) and Cowboys (2-1) share the lead.
-- Detroit (2-1) and Green Bay (2-1) begin their 2024 dog fight tied for the NFC North lead.
-- The Saints (2-1) take the early NFC West lead over the Falcons (1-2) and Bucs (1-2).
-- Seattle (2-1) was undefeated at this stage in Faux 1.0, but they ‘fall’ to (2-1) and tie with the Rams (2-1) and Niners (2-1) for the NFC West lead.
Tomorrow we’ll play out Weeks 4-6...
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| NYJ | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| MIA | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| NE | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| BAL | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| CLE | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| PIT | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TEN | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| HOU | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| IND | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| JAX | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAC | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| KC | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| LV | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| DEN | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| WSH | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| DAL | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| PHI | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| GB | …. | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| CHI | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| MIN | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| NO | …. | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| ATL | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| TB | …. | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SEA | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| LAR | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| SF | …. | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| ARI | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
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