Intro: For each team, for the next month or so, we’re going to look at the key offseason moves each team has made via trade, free agency, coaching and GM changes, and their NFL Draft to see if we scout/analyze these teams have improved or regressed or stayed flat, essentially – looking at it from a 2024 impact only...not long-term, just what could impact this season’s results.
We’ll judge these teams two at a time, pitting them against each other head-to-head to determine a ‘winner’ (which team we think impacted 2024 the best), and the winning teams will move on to the next round and compete until we get to the finals/Super Bowl.
We’re going division-by-division, seeded by 2023 order of finish.
Today we have an AFC Finals matchup...
WASHINGTON
Key Adds: OC Tyler Biadasz (from DAL), DE Dorance Armstrong (from DAL), DE Dante Fowler (from DAL), OG Nick Allegretti (from KC), RB Austin Ekeler (from LAC), LB Bobby Wagner (from SEA), LB Frankie Luvu (from CAR), DB Jeremy Chinn (from CAR), QB Marcus Mariota (from PHI)
Key Losses: WR Curtis Samuel (to BUF), CB Kendall Fuller (to MIA), RB Antonio Gibson (to NE), SAF Kamren Curl (to LAR), QB Jacoby Brissett (to NE), LB Khaleke Hudson (to NO), OL Saahdiq Charles (to TEN)
Key Draft Adds: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Jer’Zahn Newton, DB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnott, OL Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee
Key Coaching Changes: Whole staff and GM changed, Dan Quinn hired and Adam Peters at GM, and Kliff Kingsbury to O-C.
Outlook: A new GM and coaching staff brings a ton of change in 2024 offseason, and most of it for the good.
Washington lost 3-4 starters to free agency, a new regime purge...but they went out and got 5-6 starters back in free agency and then they got a real franchise QB in the draft, which is huge enough on its own...but we see 3 +/- other instant starters added via an excellent draft.
Consider anything different than Ron Rivera and Eric Bieniemy are upgrades on the coaching side, and you got one hell of a great offseason.
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ATLANTA
Key Adds: QB Kirk Cousins (from MIN), WR Darnell Mooney (from CHI), TE Charlie Woerner (from SF)
Key Losses: TE Jonnu Smith (to MIA), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (to PIT), LB Bud Dupree (to LAC), CB Jeff Okudah (to HOU), WR Mack Hollins (to BUF)
Key Draft Adds: QB Michael Penix, DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DL Brandon Dorlus, LB JD Bertrand
Key Coaching Changes: All new regime
Outlook: Getting Kirk Cousins, that one move alone, is one of the 1-2-3 best moves impacting 2024 that a team made this offseason. So, just the one move is super powerful under the theory of ‘QB is EVERYTHING’ in the NFL.
Well, they didn’t add just one mega-upgrade at QB...they got two when they drafted Michael Penix. It’s really one of the most brilliant big picture moves in NFL history...an unprecedented upgrade at thee most important position – and it’s important for looking only at 2024 as well, not just big picture...if anything happens to Cousins, they got Penix. The Falcons have a top starter QB...and a top backup QB in the NFL. That’s worth A LOT.
Outside of the QBs moves they lost some useful, but not critical pieces...and they signed a couple useful pieces in Mooney-Woerner. Their draft outside of Penix was not really impactful for 2024.
It’s all about the value and power of not one but two top QBs acquired...and the coaching regime change is also a big upgrade to go along with the QB power.
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Winner (most improved for 2024)...
There are a lot of similarities in these two teams’ offseason... They both got franchise QBs. And they both made sweeping, needed changes of their coaching staffs. Huge, 2024 impactful changes.
Who got the better QB (the most important thing)? You have to give that to Atlanta, since we’re judging the 2024 impact...not the long term. PLUS, the Falcons added Penix for insurance/more firepower if needed.
The better coaching staff change? I’d call it a push...possible lean Atlanta, but let’s call it even.
The question then becomes, with ATL holding a ‘lead’ at this point of the judgment – what about everything else they did this offseason? Did Washington do enough to overcome the QB gap? I’d say ‘yes’.
Really the Falcons entire personnel upgrade for the offseason is in the QB...everything else was hit/miss and wobbly with a weaker/illogical (to 2024) draft otherwise. Whereas Washington picked up a net gain of starters in free agency but then had a killer draft adding more 2024 impact starters. The gap/gain in Cousins over Daniels isn’t that vast, but definitely ‘the lead’ for ATL...but what Washington did outside of QB this offseason crushes what ATL did. So, ‘yes’ Washington makes up the gap they lost in the QB debate and goes onto the finals to face Tennessee for all the marbles.
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Next Round Matchups...
4th-Round (FINAL FOUR)
SUPER BOWL FINALS
TEN vs. WSH
