Intro: For each team, for the next month or so, we’re going to look at the key offseason moves each team has made via trade, free agency, coaching and GM changes, and their NFL Draft to see if we scout/analyze these teams have improved or regressed or stayed flat, essentially – looking at it from a 2024 impact only...not long-term, just what could impact this season’s results.
We’ll judge these teams two at a time, pitting them against each other head-to-head to determine a ‘winner’ (which team we think impacted 2024 the best), and the winning teams will move on to the next round and compete until we get to the finals/Super Bowl.
We’re going division-by-division, seeded by 2023 order of finish.
Today we have an NFC South matchup of #3 ATL and #2 NO...
ATLANTA
Key Adds: QB Kirk Cousins (from MIN), WR Darnell Mooney (from CHI), TE Charlie Woerner (from SF)
Key Losses: TE Jonnu Smith (to MIA), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (to PIT), LB Bud Dupree (to LAC), CB Jeff Okudah (to HOU), WR Mack Hollins (to BUF)
Key Draft Adds: QB Michael Penix, DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DL Brandon Dorlus, LB JD Bertrand
Key Coaching Changes: All new regime
Outlook: Getting Kirk Cousins, that one move alone, is one of the 1-2-3 best moves impacting 2024 that a team made this offseason. So, just the one move is super powerful under the theory of ‘QB is EVERYTHING’ in the NFL.
Well, they didn’t add just one mega-upgrade at QB...they got two when they drafted Michael Penix. It’s really one of the most brilliant big picture moves in NFL history...an unprecedented upgrade at thee most important position – and it’s important for looking only at 2024 as well, not just big picture...if anything happens to Cousins, they got Penix. The Falcons have a top starter QB...and a top backup QB in the NFL. That’s worth A LOT.
Outside of the QBs moves they lost some useful, but not critical pieces...and they signed a couple useful pieces in Mooney-Woerner. Their draft outside of Penix was not really impactful for 2024.
It’s all about the value and power of not one but two top QBs acquired...and the coaching regime change is also a big upgrade to go along with the QB power.
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NEW ORLEANS
Key Adds: DE Chase Young (from SF), WR Cedric Wilson (from MIA), LB Willie Gay (from KC)
Key Losses: DE Malcolm Roach (to DEN), QB Jameis Winston (from CLE), OG Andrus Peat (to LV), Isaac Yiadom (to SF), LB Zack Baun (to PHI)
Key Draft Adds: OL Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler, WR Bub Means
Key Coaching Changes: O-C change to Klint Kubiak
Outlook: Look at what NO spent their free agent money on...it’s ridiculous. I guess the good part of free agency is – they didn’t lose many assets either (which is a sign of their ongoing demise). Actually, the Saints got a bunch of low-key useful (like a in a backup or depth sense) players poached in free agency. No big names lost, but a lot of guys who were desired pieces for other teams (playoff teams, smarter teams you could say).
Their draft ends up being really good because of one pick – arguably the best single player in the draft (according to our models), Taliese Fuaga. The rest of their draft was typical garbage or mediocrity...like the Saints have become, in personnel, the past few seasons.
Fuaga is such a big get, it kinda neutralizes a lot of the other lower-level moves.
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Winner (most improved for 2024)...
It’s going to be hard for teams to top the Falcons for 2024 impact moves this offseason...for the obvious Kirk Cousins massive get/upgrade. The Saints are maybe a touch better overall for 2024 due to the great Fuaga draft grab...but the Falcons got exponentially better with their massive QB upgrades.
Also, boosting the Falcons offseason – they rid themselves of one of the worst head coaches in the NFL this past decade and went to anything else. That’s an additional, key offseason boost move as well.
The Falcons win and move on to the NFC South finals to face Carolina in the next round.
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Next Round Matchups...
AFC East: NE v. NYJ
AFC North: BAL v. PIT
AFC South: TEN v. IND
AFC West: LAC v. LV
NFC East: WSH v. PHI
NFC North: DET v. GB
AFC South: CAR v. ATL
