Intro: For each team, for the next month or so, we’re going to look at the key offseason moves each team has made via trade, free agency, coaching and GM changes, and their NFL Draft to see if we scout/analyze these teams have improved or regressed or stayed flat, essentially – looking at it from a 2024 impact only...not long-term, just what could impact this season’s results.
We’ll judge these teams two at a time, pitting them against each other head-to-head to determine a ‘winner’ (which team we think impacted 2024 the best), and the winning teams will move on to the next round and compete until we get to the finals/Super Bowl.
We’re going division-by-division, seeded by 2023 order of finish.
Today we have an AFC South matchup of #3 JAX and #2 IND...
JACKSONVILLE
Key Adds: DE Arik Armstead (from SF), WR Gabe Davis (from BUF), SAF Darnell Savage (from GB), OC Mitch Morse (from BUF), WR Devin Duvernay (from BAL), CB Ronald Darby (from BAL)
Key Losses: WR Calvin Ridley (to TEN), CB Darious Williams (to LAR), SAF Rayshawn Jenkins (to SEA), DT Foley Fatukasi (to HOU), WR Zay Jones (to ARI)
Key Draft Adds: WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith, DB Jarrion Jones, DT Jordan Jefferson, OL Javon Foster, PK Cam Little, LB Myles Cole
Key Coaching Changes: D-C Ryan Nielsen (fired away from ATL)
Outlook: This does not look good, at a glance... Just from looking at all the key free agent signings – they feel like/seem to be the wrong guys at the wrong time (except Duvernay). It’s like JAX bought these guys 1-3 years too late or bought into their peak moments on other teams, thinking they’ll happen for them and then some.
Example: There’s a monstrous difference of Gabe Davis happening/events with Josh Allen and Gabe Davis trying to do the same with that far inferior Prince Trevor.
Losing Darious Williams and Rayshawn Jenkins in the secondary really hurts. Ronald Darby brought in is not fixing that.
WR Brian Thomas was a great pick, but they lost Calvin Ridley...so a minor bump or maybe not even a bump if you just consider 2024 things, and Thomas being a rookie and the adjustments/learning, etc., he’ll need time to register.
The Jags got a smidge better on offense, maybe, due to Thomas...if Thomas hits quick...but their decline on defense is a hit, but they do have some hope with the hiring of the new D-C from Atlanta. The Falcons had a solid defensive season in 2023, a big change...and a lot credited to D-C Ryan Neilsen.
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INDIANAPOLIS
Key Adds: QB Joe Flacco (from CLE)
Key Losses: QB Gardner Minshew (to LV), RB Zack Moss (to CIN)
Key Draft Adds: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OL Matt Goncalves, OL Tanor Bortolini, WR Anthony Gould, LB Jaylon Carlies, SAF Jaylin Simpson
Key Coaching Changes: None
Outlook: A loss of depth at RB with Moss gone, but that’s not too radical in the big picture. Not a lot of free agency action at all for Indy – they kept most all their guys in free agency. So, the draft was the real impact item for them – and getting Latu is getting THEE best defender in the draft, so...a huge impact there.
Adonai Mitchell is nice add to the WR group.
They got O-Line depth in the draft.
Overall, the Colts got better with their offseason.
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Winner (most improved for 2024)...
The Jags lost some key players in free agency...not only in on-field talent, but also in terms of the locker room. The Jags did not get better overall this offseason...and potentially it’s worse – they might have been seriously damaged for 2024 with these offseason moves.
The Colts, on the other hand, really didn’t lose anything but added a lot – they go a defensive nuclear bomb weapon with Latu. They also added good depth on the O-Line, at WR, and for the DB group in the draft.
Easy call between these two – the Colts are the winners over the ever-sinking Jags. Indy goes on to the AFC South finals to face Tennessee.
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Next Round Matchups...
AFC East: NE v. NYJ
AFC North: BAL v. PIT
AFC South: TEN v. IND
