Intro: For each team, for the next month or so, we’re going to look at the key offseason moves each team has made via trade, free agency, coaching and GM changes, and their NFL Draft to see if we scout/analyze these teams have improved or regressed or stayed flat, essentially – looking at it from a 2024 impact only...not long-term, just what could impact this season’s results.
We’ll judge these teams two at a time, pitting them against each other head-to-head to determine a ‘winner’ (which team we think impacted 2024 the best), and the winning teams will move on to the next round and compete until we get to the finals/Super Bowl.
We’re going division-by-division, seeded by 2023 order of finish.
Today we have an AFC South matchup of #1 HOU and #4 TEN...
HOUSTON
Key Adds: DE Danielle Hunter (from MIN), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (from TEN), DT Denico Autry (from TEN), DT Foley Fatukasi (from JAX), CB Jeff Okudah (from ATL), CB Michael Ford (from CLE), CB C.J. Henderson (from CAR), CB Myles Bryant (from NE), RB Joe Mixon (from CIN)
Trade for Stefon Diggs (from BUF)
Key Losses: DE Jonathan Greenard (to MIN), DT Sheldon Rankins (to CIN), LB Blake Cashman (to MIN), RB Devin Singletary (to NYG), OT George Fant (to SEA), LB Denzel Perryman (to LAC)
Key Draft Adds: DB Kamari Lassiter, OL Blake Fisher, SAF Calen Bullock, TE Cade Stover, OL LaDarius Henderson
Key Coaching Changes: none
Outlook: A lot of names changing at the same positions...it’s hard to figure if it all worked out ahead or behind for Houston, at a glance...so, let’s take it position-by-position on the changes...
DE Hunter in, Greenard out = an improvement.
LB Al-Shaair in, Cashman/Perryman out = a slight improvement.
RB Mixon in, Singletary out = an improvement.
DT Autry/Fatukasi in, Rankins out = an improvement.
Serious DB upgrades in depth with Okudah, Henderson, Ford, Bryant + Lassiter drafted.
Serious WR upgrade/add with Diggs.
Every move they made was a replacement upgrade...without fail...no fallback in any position that I see/project.
A very good Texans team from 2023...just got better across the board.
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TENNESSEE
Key Adds: WR Calvin Ridley (from JAX), WR Tyler Boyd (from CIN), OC Lloyd Cushenberry (from DEN), Chidobe Awuzie (from CIN), RB Tony Pollard (from DAL), LB Kenneth Murray (from LAC), DT Sebastian Joseph (from SF), QB Mason Rudolph (from PIT)
Traded for L’Jarius Sneed (from KC)
Key Losses: Azeez Al-Shaair (from HOU), CB Sean Bunting (to ARI), OC Aaron Brewer (to MIA), DT Denico Autry (to HOU), RB Derrick Henry (to BAL), CB Kristain Fulton (to LAC)
Key Draft Adds: OL J.C. Latham, DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee, WR Jha’Quan Jackson
Key Coaching Changes: New HC Brian Callahan and new staff all the way around. The best of all is the O-Line coach is a big upgrade to Bill Callahan.
Outlook: Similar to Houston, we have a lot of things changing here – so, let’s break it down like we did with the Texans...
WR Ridley and Boyd in, Chris Moore out...big upgrade.
OC Cushenberry in, Brewer out...maybe an upgrade, flat at worst.
RB Pollard in, Henry out...a downgrade.
CB Sneed and Awuzie in, Fulton and Bunting out...a MASSIVE upgrade
LB Murray in, Al-Shaair out...could be flat, could be a downgrade...could be Murray finally breaks out here.
DT Sweat drafted, Autry out...different style DTs...hard to say the +/-.
OL JC Latham drafted might be an upgrade...it needs to be.
The coaching staff is an upgrade up and down the board.
All in all...the Titans got much better this offseason.
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Winner (most improved for 2024)...
Both of these teams have done so well this offseason...maybe two of the 3-5-10 best teams of the offseason moves tourney, but they are pitted against each other here in the 1st-round of our tourney.
Defensively: Let’s say both their linebacker moves were flat/even. Houston improves on the EDGE and at DT. Tennessee really improves at CB (which is the most important thing on defense).
They both got better at WR.
Houston made more improvement at RB, for sure.
O-Line bump for Tennessee from personnel added/drafted but for the OL Coach upgrade especially.
If you (like me) deem the most important things/position groups to be #1 QB, #2 O-Line, #3 CB...then you can argue about everything else, but probably DT #4 and/or WR right there too, then I’d look at this offseason moves comparison as...
#1 QB = no changes of note, Mason Rudolph doesn’t really move the needle, per se.
#2 O-Line = Slight edge to Tennessee in the offseason moves.
#3 CB = Tennessee killed it in the offseason making over their starters, but Houston did an amazing job in adding talented depth – but still the Titans did better judging the likely impact/both their adds are instant high-end starters.
#4 DT = Slight lean to Houston
#5 WR = I could understand picking either side, so call it a draw.
Given the improvement in O-Line and CB advantage to Tennessee, PLUS factor in the critical/needed coaching change for the Titans and the nice staff Callahan has put together – I have to rule it in favor of Tennessee.
I expected this to go to Houston, but the more I look at it – I have to tilt it to Tennessee, who moves on to the AFC South title game next round.
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Next Round Matchups...
AFC East: NE v. NYJ
AFC North: BAL v. PIT
AFC South: TEN v. ???
