For each team, for the next month or so, we’re going to look at the key offseason moves each team has made via trade, free agency, coaching and GM changes, and their NFL Draft to see if we scout/analyze these teams have improved or regressed or stayed flat, essentially – looking at it from a 2024 impact only...not long-term, just what could impact this season’s results.
We’ll judge these teams two at a time, pitting them against each other head-to-head to determine a ‘winner’ (which team we think impacted 2024 the best), and the winning teams will move on to the next round and compete until we get to the finals/Super Bowl.
We’re going division-by-division, seeded by 2023 order of finish.
Today we have an AFC East matchup of #1 Buffalo and #4 New England...
BUFFALO
Key Adds: WR Curtis Samuel (from WSH), DT Austin Johnson (from LAC), SAF Mike Edwards (from KC)
Key Losses: OC Mitch Morse (to JAX), CB Dane Jackson (to CAR), LB Leonard Floyd (to SF), WR Gabe Davis (to JAX), CB Tre’Davious White (to LAR), SAF Jordan Poyer (to BUF), LB Tyrel Dodson (to SEA)
Stefon Diggs traded to HOU
Key Draft Adds: WR Keon Coleman, SAF Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, OC Sedrick Van Pran, CB Daequan Hardy
Outlook: Did Buffalo get a lot worse in 2024? Did their CAP issues do them in?
Stefon Diggs out and Curtis Samuel/Keon Coleman in...that should be OK at WR. You hate to lose a veteran like Diggs, but he was fading late 2023 and Curtis Samuel is a really nice veteran presence, and a gifted WR in his own right. Coleman could be an instant weapon/success.
Losing Mitch Morse at Center is always tough, but he was also fading...and they got our top OC in the draft (Van Pran) in replacement, so might be OK to maybe even better with that move.
Dane Jackson, Len Floyd, Gabe Davis...all overrated and easily replaceable.
Really, the big losses are Tre’Davious White...but he hasn’t played much the past two years due to injury and Jordan Poyer, a veteran presence. Long-time leader at SAF...and they could bring him back.
I look at the +/- moves of the Bills for 2024, and I don’t see them as a big drop off (or gain) from 2023’s decent/good team.
I would judge this offseason as close to neutral for the Bills, so far.
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NEW ENGLAND
Key Adds: RB Antonio Gibson (from WSH), Jacoby Brissett (from WSH), LB Sione Takitaki (from CLE)
Key Losses: OT Trenton Brown (to CIN), LB Mack Wilson (to ARI), CB Myles Bryant (to HOU), TE Mike Gesicki (to CIN), RB Ezekiel Elliott (to DAL)
Key Draft Adds: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, OL Caeden Wallace, WR Javon Baker
Key Coaching Changes: New everything, Bill Belichick is gone.
Outlook: I look at the Patriots’ moves (so far) and think of two main things:
(1) An upgrade at QB, which is so key...but it’s not like they got a star QB or anything. Jacoby Brissett is the best QB they’ve had since Brady left. Drake Maye is not a real 2024 impact – if/when he starts, the season is over and they’re working on the future.
(2) A hit with the loss of Trent Brown at LT. This team lost Cole Strange at Guard to injury already, which is a killer...even worse losing Brown and Strange.
Their draft, overall, didn’t really help 2024 operations.
So, I’m not impressed with the new regime based off their first free agency period and draft...and I was very skeptical of them when they got hired. The move smacks of Robert Kraft desperation for a ‘family’ (ex-player) hire of a guy who has no real experience as an H-C, per se. And ex-players with limited experience getting thrust into HC jobs...not a great track record (nor is the industry of any type of coaching hires all that great).
I look at all the 2024 NE moves and think they didn’t really get much better...a better QB is key, but then fading on the O-Line. They did upgrade the WR group with a couple young WRs from the draft, desperately needed, but I don’t know that they’re big time impacts to 2024.
I kinda look at the NE offseason as closer to neutral...steps forward and steps back. Just not a lot of ‘wow here.
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Winner (most improved for 2024)...
I give it, ever so slightly, to the Patriots here...again, just with a 2024 mindset...they had to improve at QB, and they did...that’s so key. But they needed to do better, and they didn’t...to me. The Patriots are still way off competing for a division title, while Buffalo is still very viable for the division and a shot at the Super Bowl. But judging the 2024 offseason personnel moves alone...very slight edge to the Patriots over Buffalo.
New England moves on to the AFC east finals.
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