Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from the Super Bowl Finale...
#1 Texans (17-5) vs. #1 Lions (17-5)
Going to let the computer play this out 1x and report the scoring and the winner...
1Q: HOU Dell 42-yard TD pass from Stroud (XP good) HOU leads 7-0
1Q: DET Badgley 41-yard FG -- HOU leads 7-3
2Q: HOU Fairbairn 48-yard FG – HOU leads 10-3
2Q: HOU Schultz 9-yard TD pass from Stroud (XP good) HOU leads 17-3
3Q: DET Badgley 33-yard FG – HOU leads 17-6
3Q: DET Jack Campbell 17-yard Fumble Return TD (2pts Conv. good) HOU leads 17-14
4Q: HOU Dell 55-yard TD pass from Stroud (XP good) HOU 24-17
4Q; DET St. Brown 5-yard TD pass from Goff (2pt Conv. failed) HOU leads 24-23
Houston wins the Super Bowl 24-23!
MVP: C.J. Stroud
That’s it for Faux Computer Simulated Season 1.0. The next run of the Faux season will be in June/July some time with another running right before the season starts.
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