Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from the AFC and NFC Conference Finals...
AFC
#6 Baltimore (14-5) at Houston (13-5)
The Texans win 54% of the simulations.
C.J. Stroud...the strong WR trio...and (the key) a rebuilt, smartly rebuilt defense led the Texans to cruise past the Ravens. Baltimore falls short once again...
When you look at the defensive changes in personnel the Texans made this offseason...especially some of the low-level moves that didn’t really catch much attention – Houston could be sitting on a gold mine of cheap, underdeveloped talent from other teams...IF they can boost them up...and DeMeco Ryans may be uniquely qualified to pull that off.
NFC
#5 San Francisco (14-5) at #1 Detroit (13-5)
The Lions win 59% of the simulations.
The 49ers are the defending NFC champs, but they really didn’t get any better this offseason...they kinda ‘stood pat’. The Lions had deficiencies at CB and WR last season, which led them to fail/just fall short against SF in the last NFL title game.
The Lions brought everything key back for 2024 and cleaned up/addressed their CB issue in a big way. The Lions are nearly ‘complete’...complete enough to be NFC favorites. They are one major WR away from being CLEARLY the best team in the NFC...and they can get that WR anytime they go on sale in-season/preseason or pre-trade deadline.
The Lions, as we know them now, with their enhanced CB group...they soundly defeat the 49ers...a 49er group that will now tail off a bit and need to be retooled.
The Lions are headed to the Faux 1.0 Super Bowl to face the other Faux #1 seed...the Texans.
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