Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from NFC Divisional Playoff...
#6 Packers (11-7) at #1 Lions (12-5)
The Lions win 67% of the simulations.
The major problem the Lions had last playoff run, last season, was horrific cornerbacks/pass defense...and they still almost snuck into the Super Bowl. They smartly addressed that issue in the offseason and are able to easily put the Packers away here. The Packers fall short of the NFC Finals again...while the Lions head to the big event, again.
#5 49ers (13-5) at #2 Rams (13-5)
The 49ers win 53% of the simulations.
The 49ers, under Brock Purdy the past two seasons, could’ve won the NFC title and Super Bowl...but just missed. They are experienced top-to-bottom in these playoffs, and they get by a younger Rams team to get to the NFC Final for the third time in Purdy’s three seasons. Shanahan has McVay’s number, usually.
It’s an NFC Finals rematch of San Francisco at Detroit for a trip to the Super Bowl.
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