Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 16-18...
AFC
-- The Jets (11-6) closed the deal for the AFC East...holding off the Bills (10-7).
-- The Ravens (12-5) hold off the Bengals (11-6) to win the AFC North.
-- The Texans (12-5) and Colts (12-5) stayed even for the past few reports, and they finish tied for the AFC South title and tied for the best record in the NFL...with several other 12-win teams this Faux season. The Texans win the tiebreaker and send the Colts to the wild card, despite their best -in-the-NFL (tie) record.
-- The Chiefs (12-5) easily lock up the AFC West by 3 games over the surging Chargers (9-8).
-- Houston, Baltimore, KC all finish (12-5)...one of them is the #1 seed. Find out which tomorrow!
-- Indy (12-5) leads the wild card group that contains the Bills (10-7) and the shock Titans (10-6). The Titans win five of their last 6 to slide into the postseason.
-- The Browns (9-8) and Chargers (9-8) just miss wild card opportunity.
-- The AFC Player of the Year: C.J. Stroud over Anthony Richardson and Derrick Henry.
-- Getting fired once the season ended (AFC): Miami GM Chris Grier and Mike Tomlin.
NFC
-- The Eagles (10-7) take the NFC East holding off the surging Cowboys (9-8).
-- The Lions (12-5) take the NFC North as expected...over (10-7) GB.
-- The Falcons (11-6) win the NFC West by 3 games over Tampa (8-9).
-- The Rams and 49ers tied at (12-5), but the Rams win the tiebreaker to take the NFC West.
-- Detroit and the Rams tie for the best record in the NFC...find out who got the #1 seed BYE tomorrow.
-- The 49ers are by far the top wild card at (12-5). Green Bay (10-7) gets in again. The final wild card is between Dallas (9-8) and Seattle (9-8)...find out who got the spot on tomorrow’s report.
-- NFC Player of the Year: Brock Purdy over Jared Goff and Matt Stafford.
-- Getting fired once the season ended (NFC): Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus (in-season), GM Ryan Poles, Dennis Allen.
Only 4 coaching changes total projected in the Faux NFL...might only be three if Tomlin hangs on.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| BUF | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| MIA | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 15 | = | 0.118 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| CIN | … | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| CLE | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| PIT | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| IND | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| TEN | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| JAX | … | 6 | - | 11 | = | 0.353 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| LAC | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| LV | … | 5 | - | 12 | = | 0.294 |
| DEN | … | 4 | - | 13 | = | 0.235 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| DAL | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| WSH | … | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| NYG | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| GB | …. | 10 | - | 7 | = | 0.588 |
| MIN | … | 4 | - | 13 | = | 0.235 |
| CHI | … | 3 | - | 14 | = | 0.176 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 11 | - | 6 | = | 0.647 |
| TB | …. | 8 | - | 9 | = | 0.471 |
| NO | …. | 6 | - | 11 | = | 0.353 |
| CAR | … | 3 | - | 14 | = | 0.176 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| SF | …. | 12 | - | 5 | = | 0.706 |
| SEA | … | 9 | - | 8 | = | 0.529 |
| ARI | … | 7 | - | 10 | = | 0.412 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
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