INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Wild Card week in Jan. 2024)
Game Overview...
I gotta hand it to the Lions...and I am so happy for them...they beat the Rams on the tape and with the final score. Jared Goff outplayed Matt Stafford...and Stafford was really good here, so huge credit to Goff. Two of the best coaching staffs and head coaches and teams in these playoffs happened to draw each other in the 1st-round and the Lions earned a close win.
Now, actually, the Lions get an easier matchup in the 2nd-round hosting Tampa Bay (thanks to Dallas losing). The Lions are more disciplined than the Bucs, and Detroit should win this -- but at some point, the Lions bad secondary is going to cost them, so it’s not a lock.
The Rams depart the playoffs with a young team on the rise, but still ‘not there’ yet. Their defense played too finesse and missed way too many tackles in this game as a huge difference for the Lions win. It’s a young defense that could/should get better into the future. As long as Matt Stafford stays healthy, and that’s always a huge IF, the Rams are back in position to fight the 49ers in the NFC West in 2024.
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2024 COMMENTS: That young Rams defense got several key additions in free agency (Darious Williams, Tre’Davious White, and Kameron Curl to fix the secondary PLUS they drafted two of the best defensive prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft – Braden Fiske and Jared Verse.
A lot of fire power was brought in, but then losing Aaron Donald let a lot of steam out of all the gains...but this defense is still promising with all the talent and depth added.
How fast this new defense (five new starters, potentially) gels under a new D-C (Chris Shula) is the difference between a wild card team and NFC West winners.
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Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- In a game with all the emotions you could have between the two QBs, Jared Goff (22-27 for 277 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) just played a better game, had more ‘money’ throws than Stafford did. Goff did not wilt in the big moment, credit to him.
It was a big moment for Goff, but I foresee him only ever being a QB2 (for FF) in this new era of the QB talent inflation/QB value deflation. And he’s at risk in 2024 of being without O-C Ben Johnson and hoping Dan Campbell finds an equal/better replacement, which is near impossible for organizations to do.
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2024 COMMENTS: Shockingly, Ben Johnson stayed...so Goff as a QB1 in FF 2024 is on the table for sure.
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-- After watching the Rams in Week 1 this regular season, I ‘saw the light’...I knew I had the wrong projections on their 2023 team...and I quickly bet the Rams to make the playoffs at 9-to-1 and soon after I bet on Matt Stafford (25-36 for 367 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) to lead the league in passing yards. He finished 10th in passing yards in 2023...missing a game with injury and skipping Week 18 because he didn’t need to play. If he had dealt a couple 300+ yard games in those two games he missed (not missing the games) – then he had a good chance to beat out Tua for the league lead in passing yards. Surprisingly...you know who was 2nd in passing yards in 2023, by only 49 yards? Jared Goff.
In this game, Stafford was good as always...just Goff was better.
Stafford and Goff are very similar for FF...QB2s overall, because of their lack of running ability at all...even for tush push hopes. QB1 weeks, QB2 averages over time. Goff is younger, but about to lose his potential booster when O-C Ben Johnson leaves.
-- Puka Nacua (9-181-1/10) once again was the top target for Stafford, and once again Cooper Kupp (5-27-0/9) is way off in the distance.
I did not see Puka 2023 coming...I would have never dreamed he’d be this good, this impactful right away...especially in the face of breaking up the Stafford-Kupp golden relationship of the past three seasons.
I just did not see it happening with Puka. Things like that make me question all my WR scouting at any given moment...because my mind will say, ‘...but, yeah, you missed it on Puka though!’ Stupid mind games.
-- Demarcus Robinson (3-44-0/6) had a so-so game here, but the three missed connection targets in this game were a couple of TD shots and a deep ball just missed (and another that was negated by penalty).
It just looks like, lately/to end the season, it’s Puka as the far-and-away top target...then a big drop off to DRob...then a drop to Kupp, for Stafford’s pecking order. I cannot believe it has come to this for Kupp...what a fall from grace after being top of the PPR FF mountain with Stafford for years.
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2024 COMMENTS: I think the targets could be more balanced/equitable in 2024...thus the Puka, Kupp, and DRob projections and consensus ADPs are all wrong on them in different directions.
We’ll see what our computer models think of the projections on them when our Version 1.0 of the 2024 Draft Guide and Commentary drops somewhere around 6/10/2024, but a moving target date.
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-- Speaking of things that I did not see coming... I definitely did not see or ever could have conceived of Kyren Williams (13-61-0, 1-9-0/1). I still don’t see ‘it’ with him...but I don’t see the flop that I saw in 2022 either.
The Rams RB that did impress me in this game...Ronnie Rivers (3-9-0, 3-35-0/3). He had to do extra work when Kyren hurt his hand (had surgery after the game) and was out. Rivers’ confidence is growing, and he made some subtly beautiful catches on flare passes in this game – just a very smooth transition from back-to-the-defense and catching a pass to then turning his body swiftly/smoothly up field and accelerating.
I’m not saying that Rivers is going to take Kyren’s job in 2024 or anything like that...just noting that Rivers is definitely making a move to be the proper handcuff...one who if ever gets the chance to run as the #1 for a few weeks...the Rams may not miss a beat, and Rivers could put up shocking numbers like Kyren in this offense. And Kyren’s last three years have various injuries weaved all throughout them.
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2024 COMMENTS: Rivers isn’t taking any jobs in 2024, but Blake Corum might...and that reality is gaining steam with Kyren’s foot injury this summer.
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-- Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-110-0/9) just keeps on rolling. It helps that the Lions really have weak ‘other’ WRs, relatively speaking...and that chiefly includes Jameson Williams (2-19-0/2), a WR who should be much further along than this...if he was gonna be a star.
Chalk up another thing I scouted wrong (this game report is depressing me, but it’s important to acknowledge scouting misses and get ‘right’ on these things quickly...don’t hold onto a bad hand) – I thought Jameson Williams was a great construction for FF output and was going to place (Detroit) where he could shine, but in this new era...if it hasn’t happened by now it’s likely not going to happen. I sold this stock, at a loss, a long time ago as soon as I found a decent exit point this season. He’s continued to lose FF value, in general, for several weeks.
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2024 COMMENTS: Jameson can be a bad NFL WR but a decent FF one, given his skills/speed but ever since he tore up his knee he has just not looked the same in now two seasons removed from the surgery.
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-- Sam LaPorta (3-14-1/3) played despite a bad knee injury the prior week’s game. He played 40% of the snaps and looked OK. He will play next week vs. TB, but he probably won’t be 100% until/if the Lions make the Super Bowl.
LaPorta almost wound up the FF regular season (Wks 1-17) as the #1 PPG TE...because of his TD production. He blew away the field with 9 TDs...next best was Kittle-Njoku-Kmet-Andrews-Henry with 6.
LaPorta was 4th in catches and 6th in yards among TEs this season. Depending upon the new Detroit O-C...and what they do at WR, LaPorta will be a hot name to be most FF analyst’s #1 TE projection for 2024. Actually, he’ll be the #1 projection regardless I suspect...but for us, I wanna see what they do for an O-C and at WR otherwise.
-- The thing that cost the Rams this game was their defense, and their lack of toughness/tackling...which has been a noticeable theme in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. It’s not been the QB disparity or a great pass rush tipping these playoff games to the winner...it’s been the horrid tackling by the defenses that has stood out to me.
Between the new era of passing game, and the ball being in the secondary more (where the worst tacklers are) to the hesitancy of players to tackle in some situations because every hit/physicality is some kind of penalty – we are getting to two-hand touch football. Not because the players are soft, but because it’s what the NFL wants or is inadvertently created by their reactionary rules.
So, who is the best DST outlook going into FF 2024? I honestly do not care. I mean, I do...but I’m trying to make a point... There are no more ‘great’/uber dominant defensive units in this era...there’s only ‘what QB are you facing this week?’ to find the top defense for the week.
The best DST at any point in this season or in the upcoming season – it depends on strength of schedule and who the opposing QB is and/or O-Line issues they’re having. I never start my week-to-week DST projections work by looking over the defensive personnel or D-C first...I start DST projection study by evaluating/emphasizing the opposing QB and O-Line. And now that everyone in America can play QB in the NFL, except Bryce Young...so, finding proper DSTs months ahead of the season...it’s becoming a fool’s errand. I need to see the schedule and who the various teams with QB issues drafted or signed...then I can try to find DSTs to start the season with. No more long-term view with DSTs...it’s a fluid situation every week.
You should move to eliminate DSTs from your FF leagues because they are becoming WAY too random. Eliminate them...or replace with another flex spot...or add another flex spot to minimize the DST random impacts...or change to three IDPs (DL, LB, DB) instead of the DST.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Rams saw the tackling and secondary issues too, obviously, thus the big sweeping changes this offseason.
We end this series here with the Rams losing a heartbreaker here. Consider that the Rams had all these flaws going into this game and they were playing arguably the best team in football...one that could’ve gone to the Super Bowl and won it...the flawed, young Rams faced that better team, at their home, and the Rams played pretty sloppy on defense – and they still almost won this game.
The Rams are well coached, well quarterbacked, and have an emerging nice O-Line with a ton of defensive talent now. This team should take a step in 2024.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Kupp
50 = DRob
49 = Puka
09 = Skowronek
08 = Tutu
38 = Kyren
18 = Rivers
52 = ARSB
48 = JReyn
39 = Jameson
30 = DMtg
19 = Gibbs
07 = CReyn
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