Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 13-15...
-- The Jets (10-4) have all but wrapped up the AFC East with a 3-game lead going into the final 3 games of the season.
-- The Ravens (10-4) overtake the Bengals (9-5) for the NFC North lead.
-- The Colts (11-3) and Texans (11-3) are still fighting for the AFC South crown AND for the best record in the league.
-- The Chiefs (9-5) lock up the AFC West with a 3-game lead over LAC (6-8).
-- The Eagles (8-6) have taken back the NFC East lead with Wahsington (7-7) falling back down...but Dallas (7-7) wins three straight to get right back into the race.
-- The Lions (10-4) have pulled away from the Packers (8-6) in the NFC North but it’s not over yet.
-- The Falcons (9-5) claim the NFC South crown already...winning the very weak NFC South.
-- The 49ers (10-4) and Rams (10-4) are still deadlocked for the NFC West.
-- Worst record in the league/fighting for the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft: NE and CAR...both (2-12).
-- NFC Wild Cards at this point: Rams, Packers, Seahawks...Washington last team out.
-- AFC Wild Cards at this point: Indy, Cincy, Browns...Titans last team out.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| MIA | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| BUF | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 12 | = | 0.143 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| CIN | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| CLE | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| PIT | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| IND | … | 11 | - | 3 | = | 0.786 |
| HOU | … | 11 | - | 3 | = | 0.786 |
| TEN | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| JAX | … | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| LAC | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| DEN | … | 4 | - | 10 | = | 0.286 |
| LV | … | 4 | - | 10 | = | 0.286 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| DAL | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| WSH | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| NYG | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| GB | …. | 8 | - | 6 | = | 0.571 |
| MIN | … | 3 | - | 11 | = | 0.214 |
| CHI | … | 3 | - | 11 | = | 0.214 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 9 | - | 5 | = | 0.643 |
| TB | …. | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
| NO | …. | 5 | - | 9 | = | 0.357 |
| CAR | … | 2 | - | 12 | = | 0.143 |
| =============================================================== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SF | …. | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| LAR | … | 10 | - | 4 | = | 0.714 |
| SEA | … | 7 | - | 7 | = | 0.500 |
| ARI | … | 6 | - | 8 | = | 0.429 |
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