Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 10-12...
-- The Jets (8-3) maintain their 2-game lead in the AFC East. If this really happens, the media coverage of the Jets will be insufferable this season.
-- The Bengals (8-3) continue to hold the AFC North lead by a half-a-game over Baltimore (8-4). The Browns (7-4) are on their heels.
-- The Colts (9-3) and Texans (9-3) continue to fight for the AFC South lead...and for the best record in all of football as well.
-- The Chiefs (7-5) are keeping control of the weaker AFC West.
-- SHOCKER...Washington (7-5) has pulled into the NFC East lead over Philly (6-5). The Cowboys (4-7) are in last place.
-- The Packers (7-4) have tied the Lions (7-4) for the NFC North lead.
-- The Falcons (7-4) are starting to run away with the AFC South...or more the rest of the division is dying off.
-- The 49ers (8-3) and Rams (8-3) continue their fight for the NFC West. Seattle (6-5) is fading away after a hot start.
-- Best record in football...(9-3) each with Indy and Houston.
-- Worst record in football...The Patriots and Panthers are both (2-10) as the Vikings got their first two wins of the season in this stretch and got off the bottom of the league.
-- Surprise teams...
Washington (7-5)
The Giants (5-7) hanging in the wild card scene.
Tampa Bay has dropped to (4-8).
Seattle (6-5) is still strong in the wild card hunt.
Dallas (4-7) is in last place in the NFC East and Jerry cannot be happy.
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| MIA | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| BUF | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| NE | …. | 2 | - | 10 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| BAL | … | 8 | - | 4 | = | 0.667 |
| CLE | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| PIT | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| IND | … | 9 | - | 3 | = | 0.750 |
| HOU | … | 9 | - | 3 | = | 0.750 |
| TEN | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| JAX | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | …. | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| LAC | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
| LV | … | 3 | - | 8 | = | 0.273 |
| DEN | … | 3 | - | 9 | = | 0.250 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| WSH | … | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
| PHI | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| NYG | … | 5 | - | 7 | = | 0.417 |
| DAL | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| GB | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| CHI | … | 3 | - | 8 | = | 0.273 |
| MIN | …. | 2 | - | 9 | = | 0.182 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
| NO | …. | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
| TB | …. | 4 | - | 8 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 2 | - | 10 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SF | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| LAR | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
| SEA | …. | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
| ARI | … | 3 | - | 9 | = | 0.250 |
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