INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 17 week in Jan. 2024)
Game Overview...
Couple takeaways here...
The Rams are really good and played a solid enough game here...but the Giants never quit, even when they were down early and on the verge of getting knocked out...and Tyrod Taylor does not quit. The Giants were undermanned/underdogs here and fought back from deficits all game and then had the chance to win a couple of times late, but Tyrod botched a 2-point conversion to take the lead late...then new kicker Mason Crosby shanked a 54-yarder at the buzzer to hand the Rams a lucky win.
Just note for Week 18+ the rest of this season: the Rams are good, but the Giants had them beat...and Tyrod never gives up.
The Rams clinch a playoff spot and are likely to be the #6 seed but could wind up the #7 seed...but they’re in...and they’re dangerous.
The Giants played for pride, and they showed it. Week 18 against Philly...the Eagles may not be taking this seriously enough, partially because the Eagles defense is dead. A shootout is coming.
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2024 COMMENTS: Tyrod would go on to beat the brakes off of the Eagles the following week.
The Rams clinched a spot and didn’t even need to play Week 18 for anything, so they played backups.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Tyrod Taylor (27-41 for 319 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 6-40-0) might be the single best scoring QB of Week 18...or he pulls the rug out from under you.
*The next paragraphs were written pre-Daboll announcing he would start Tyrod.
PRO: In the era of backup QBs coming in and flourishing, Tyrod is one of the best. A never-say-die QB who is an experienced thrower and higher-end runner...and he has weapons to throw to here. If Brian Daboll is playing to win, then he goes with Tyrod in a wonderful FF matchup against the Eagles trash secondary.
CON: Daboll sees Week 18 as a spot where he wants to get DeVito more work and starts him...OR if the Eagles throw in the towel immediately (and sit starters for this game) or the Eagles throw in the towel at halftime or going into the 4th-quarter and pull starters, would Daboll then match that and pull Tyrod, etc.?
Coaches tend to lean ‘play to win’...at the expense of development or draft pick conniving, so my early guess is: Daboll rewards Tyrod’s heart and leadership and lets him have Week 18. Whether he’d pull him/the starters in the 4th-quarter and allow others to get some snaps is anyone’s guess. I start the week thinking Tyrod is going to be a full ‘go’.
*Late note: Tyrod earned the start...and is getting the Week 18 run, and I don’t think Daboll will pull Tyrod unless this game gets totally out of hand or it’s very late 4th-quarter/final series stuff.
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2024 COMMENTS: Tyrod played nearly the whole game. He came out for a few plays in game hurt...but then raced right back in...not at 100% and still threw for 297 yards and a TD while rushing for 38 yards as well.
The smartest thing Tyrod has done lately – leaving the Giants in free agency, rejecting their offer to return, and going to the Jets to backup Rodgers (and his achilles).
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-- *This part was written before Sean McVay made his Stafford to sit announcement today.
I also start the week thinking...the Rams may choose to sit Matt Stafford (24-34 for 317 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs), for his own good. The Rams could be the surprise team of the NFC playoffs IF Stafford stays fully healthy.
I’m not sure if the Rams care if they are the #6 or #7 seed. Facing Philly (if LAR falls to #7 seed) is probably as favorable as taking on Detroit (assuming LAR is a #6 seed). I’m guessing McVay would rather play in a dome at Detroit, where Stafford is comfortable enough from his past – so we might see Stafford for as long as the game is still a game.
Everything for the Rams seeding falls on whether Green Bay wins or loses, as it pertains to the Rams being a #6 or #7...and the NFL set the schedule for GB to play same time as LAR, so the Rams would need to win to stay ahead of GB...or if GB loses, then the Rams stay a #6 seed no matter what.
I’m 50/50 on whether Stafford and the starters all play Week 18. McVay is not tipping his hand yet. We probably won’t know until Friday. I lean Stafford held out, but I am not fully confident in that prediction.
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2024 COMMENTS: Stafford sat out along with many key Rams starters...but so did the 49ers, and the Rams ended up winning the Week 18 game with Carson Wentz at QB.
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-- Darius Slayton (4-106-1/6) led the NYG WRs in yards...but he got an 80-yard bomb TD late in the game to push him the big numbers. He was ‘just another guy’ otherwise. Wan’Dale Robinson (6-55-0/9) led in actual targets. Jalin Hyatt (3-25-0/4) continues to look like a gamebreaker...one the Giants cannot/will not utilize properly.
Big opportunity for the WR group against Philly’s dead pass defense Week 18.
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2024 COMMENTS: Thinking their passing game issues are WR based, and certainly not QB based...the Giants needing EVERYTHING but WRs (or expensive, useless EDGE rushers), drafted Malik Nabers in 2024.
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-- Puka Nacua (5-118-0/8) needs 27 more yards for a rookie record, so we know he’ll play at least until he gets that...if not most of the game if McVay goes with the starters.
This game was another card dealt on the fact that not only has Cooper Kupp (4-27-1/6) been pushed aside in the pecking order for Puka...Kupp is now falling below Demarcus Robinson (6-92-0/10) in target importance. I never thought DRob would sustain this run, but he’s getting better/more important/more effective every week...he’s a free agent in a couple of weeks too...
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2024 COMMENTS: Puka would set the record and then ditch out of the Week 18 game next week. What a rookie season...all made possible by a Kupp injury that didn’t heal in time for the start of the season.
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-- If the starters go for LAR, Kyren Williams (20-87-3, 2-14-0/2) is an RB1 for Week 18. If the Rams sit starters, Ronnie Rivers (1-4-0/1) then likely gets a good run with some Royce Freeman mixed in...but rookie Zach Evans may be the biggest workload of all the Rams RBs in that Week 18.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Rams qualified for the playoffs with this win. Week 18 was meaningless. The next, and final, report in this series will be the big Rams at Detroit playoff showdown.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Slayton
61 = Wan’Dale
57 = Hyatt
49 = Waller
18 = Hodgins
61 = Puka
61 = Kupp
57 = DRob
04 = Tutu
01 = Skowronek
58 = Kyren
04 = Rivers
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