Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 7-9...
-- The Jets (7-2) are trying to pull away from the pack in the AFC East...a now 2-game lead on the surging Bills (5-4), who started slow but won 3-straight to get over .500.
-- The Bengals (7-2) take the lead in the AFC North over Baltimore (6-3) and surprising? Cleveland (6-3).
-- The Colts (6-3) and Texans (6-3) are battling for AFC South supremacy while the fast-start Titans (4-4) have had their tough early schedule knock them into last place.
-- The Chiefs (5-2) are starting to separate from a very weak AFC West pack.
-- The Eagles (5-3) hold the NFC East lead but are trailed (a half-a-game out) by the surprising Commanders (5-4). Dallas is scuffling at (3-5).
-- The NFC North is the haves and have-nots: Detroit (6-2) and Green Bay (6-3) are fighting at the top while the Bears (1-7) and the Vikings (0-8) are scraping as the two of the worst teams in the NFL.
-- Atlanta (5-4) keeps control of the NFL South by a game over Tampa Bay (4-5).
-- The 49ers (6-2) pulled into a division lead tie with the Rams (6-2).
-- Best record in the NFL through 9 weeks: NYJ and CIN each at (7-2)
-- Worst record in the NFL through 9 weeks: the lone winless team Minnesota (0-8)
-- Surprise teams, so far...
Washington (5-4) and in the NFC East hunt.
Chicago’s (1-7) rookie QB bellyflop season.
Seattle (5-4) is a win behind LAR and SF in the NFC West.
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