INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
==================================
(Original comments written post-Week 16 week in Dec. 2023)
Game Overview...
The final score is not at all indicative of the reality of this game. The Rams crushed the Saints here. It was 30-7 with 12+ minutes left, and the Saints were lucky it wasn’t 40+ to 7, but as the Rams tried to seal up the win, they let their guard down and suddenly it was an 8-point game with 3+ minutes left. The Rams ran the game out from there and took a big NFC wild card win here...a game they very much dominated.
The Rams (8-7) are starting to click, and we’ve been promoting them as a top 10 team potential since about Week 2...and now the public is starting to discover it. LAR has NYG and SF to go on the schedule...a win-then-loss finish gets them to 9 wins and likely a wild card. They hold tiebreakers over SEA and NO.
The Saints (7-8) are hurt by this loss, but their destiny is still kinda in their hands. They face Tampa Week 17 and if they beat the Bucs, they’re tied atop the NFC South. New Orleans has no real quality wins in the NFC, so it’s either win the NFC South (which is more unlikely than likely) or go home.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: Two in-a-row for the Rams...five wins in their last 6 games at this point. Their last two wins were dominant performances that the opponent got lucky, and I do mean, lucky to swing back into the game (kinda) late with hurry up offenses and fluky broken play scores...but eventually the Rams would put the hammer down and win the game.
The Saints losing here all but gave TB the path to the NFC South title and kept Todd Bowles from getting fired. What a tangled web the NFL weaves...
**********************************************
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Last 5 games, the Rams are (4-1) and Matt Stafford (24-34 for 328 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) has thrown for 14 TDs/1 INT in that span. Everything is clicking for Stafford, and he has another nice matchup at NYG Week 17.
-- It looked like Cooper Kupp (6-52-0/12) was the main plan on targeting early on, but then Kupp started dropping passes (one an easy TD shot) and then got his shoulder/side/arm hit in the 1st-quarter and then Kupp struggled catching passes even more from there and Stafford just switched off Kupp to throwing heavy to Puka Nacua (9-164-1/11) and Demarcus Robinson (6-82-1/6).
Puka is an auto-start every week.
Kupp...after watching this disaster from him...I don’t know whether to trust him Week 17 or not. Probably have to if he practices all week. We’ll have to see about his arm/shoulder.
DRob...4 games in-a-row with a TD. Top WRs hardly can do that. Puka is having this surreal rookie season...and he only has 5 TDs all season. DRob has 4 TDs in 4 games as a new starter. Can he go for a 5th in-a-row? Don’t ask me. I didn’t think he’d get to 2 or 3 or 4 in-a-row.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: DRob did not get to the 5th TD in-a-row but had a fine end to the season...and got a nice 1-year deal to return to the team for 2024.
Kupp would be bothered by an arm/shoulder issue the following week...but played through it.
**********************************************
-- Kyren Williams (22-104-1) had another RB1 week...another coming next week vs. NYG. The most inexplicable player of 2023, for me. I never would’ve guessed or projected Kyren to be an FF star any year, much less 2023. Kudos to him. I didn’t believe it, so I have no shares in it from the start.
Ronnie Rivers (6-20-0) looks to be his handcuff if that even matters to you at this stage. As soon as Rivers came off IR, he got activated and played snaps/got touches here and Royce Freeman was a ghost.
-- The FF gods shined on Derek Carr (27-40 for 319 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) this game. Carr was on his way to a QB2/3 event and then the Rams rolled out a red carpet the final few minutes and let him throw for a bunch of yards and 2 TDs late, and he ended up with a better FF game than Stafford...despite the fact he wasn’t near as effective. It’s better to be FF-lucky than FF-good.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: I re-remembered this now... Carr was AWFUL...the Rams D was ON in this game, a critical for the playoffs game, do-or-die kinda and Rams crushed for 3+ quarters...and then a bunch of Saints garbage hit, and Carr was a shock QB1 for the week and got them back in the game, only to lose.
**********************************************
-- Chris Olave (9-123-0/13) was back, and that’s where all Carr’s throws tend to go...and that’s what happened here.
Rashid Shaheed (5-70-1/9) had the game here that we were all hoping for last week. Why they waited until this week to throw him the ball...I have no idea? A season high (tied) for catches and targets with Olave back. Without Olave last week, he’s a nobody.
What’s in store for Shaheed Week 17 at TB? Who knows? This was Shaheed’s first ‘Quality Start’ since Week 8. Shaheed has 4 QS’s in 13 games this season. The odds are against him week-to-week, but in any given week he’s in store for a big play.
A.T. Perry (1-35-1/1) caught a nice TD pass but had just the one target. ATP should be a starter next year, but if Allen/Carr are back in 2024, I don’t know how FF-good Perry can be in Olave’s shadow. He’s got star metrics on our scouting system, but he’s not in a great place to show it, potentially.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: This is a reminder... The Saints are poorly coached/poorly run and Derek Carr is a bottom tier QB there and only Olave has any FF consistency.
**********************************************
-- Alvin Kamara (9-19-0, 5-16-0/5) had an FF dud...but this game was out of hand quickly, the run game abandoned, and the dud occurred.
Ditto for Taysom Hill (2-2-0). This got out of hand and the run game was done. Hill is their best/most interesting weapon, so of course, they didn’t use him hardly at all. He could’ve helped sustain drives for some comeback hope before the late 4th-quarter, but Dennis Allen makes 7-figures and we’re all dumb fans.
Four single digit PPR events in Hill’s last 5 games...after three huge games midseason to get him into the TE1 top 10...not anymore.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: Last year, I’m not sure if there could be any worse collection of head coaches in one division than the NFC South. They all needed to go, but only half got replaced. The other half will get their just reward/firing after this season.
**********************************************
-- The Rams-DST was having a solid night for about 50+ minutes left in this game, but then a soft prevent and some unlucky things occurred, and the Rams D ended up with a low FF-scoring event. The Rams D was really good most of this game.
As we said leading up to this game...the Saints-DST was an FF-fraud. The reason we had the Saints-DST as the top-rated DST to start FF 2023 with was the early season schedule...and it mostly worked, and then we ditched out when the schedule turned...and this was their toughest game/opponent/offense to face all season...and they gave up 30 points, and lucky it wasn’t 40+.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: We did ride that Saints DST on schedule pretty well early last season. It wasn’t perfect, but what DST is anymore?
**********************************************
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Kupp
69 = Puka
65 = D Robinson
04 = Atwell
55 = Kyren
15 = Rivers
49 = Shaheed
45 = Olave
36 = AT Perry
13 = Bowden
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
