Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 4-6...
-- The high-profile Aaron Rodgers/Jets start out (5-1) and take a 1.5 game lead over (3-2) MIA in the AFC East. The Bills are scuffling at (2-4) out of the gates.
-- The Ravens (5-1) and Bengals (5-1) fell from the unbeatens...but are still tied for the AFC North lead.
-- Houston (5-1) breaks out of the three-way tie for first (last report/Wks 1-3) to take solo command of the AFC South over Indy (4-2).
All teams in the AFC South are .500 or better.
-- The Chargers (2-3) run in 1st-place is over...KC (3-2) takes back over the AFC West.
-- The Eagles (4-1) maintain 1st-place in the NFC East over Dallas (3-3).
-- Detroit (4-1) holds a slim lead over GB (4-2) for the NFC North.
-- The Falcons (3-3) get to .500 to take over solo 1st-place in the NFC South.
-- The Rams are (4-1) ahead in the NFC West over the 4-win 49ers (4-2) and SEA (4-2).
-- There are no undefeated teams remaining in the Faux season.
-- The Pats (0-6) and Vikings (0-5) remain winless.
-- The surprise teams, so far...
SEA (4-2)...fell after a (3-0) start on schedule.
TEN (3-2)
BUF (2-4)
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| NYJ | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| MIA | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| BUF | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| NE | …. | 0 | - | 6 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| BAL | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| CIN | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| PIT | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| CLE | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| HOU | … | 5 | - | 1 | = | 0.833 |
| IND | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| TEN | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| JAX | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| KC | … | 3 | - | 2 | = | 0.600 |
| LAC | … | 2 | - | 3 | = | 0.400 |
| LV | …. | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| DEN | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 4 | - | 1 | = | 0.800 |
| DAL | … | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| WSH | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 4 | - | 1 | = | 0.800 |
| GB | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| CHI | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| MIN | …. | 0 | - | 5 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | …. | 3 | - | 3 | = | 0.500 |
| NO | … | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| TB | …. | 2 | - | 4 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAR | … | 4 | - | 1 | = | 0.800 |
| SF | … | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| SEA | …. | 4 | - | 2 | = | 0.667 |
| ARI | … | 1 | - | 5 | = | 0.167 |
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