Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 1-3...
-- The Bengals and Ravens are the only undefeated teams in the AFC at (3-0), tied for the AFC North lead...followed closely by the Browns and Steelers, both a nice-start (2-1). The AFC North starts out in dominant fashion.
-- The Bills-Jets-Dolphins all jump out to a (2-1) record to tie for the AFC East lead. The Patriots are an unsurprising (0-3).
-- The AFC South has a mild shock as Indy and Houston lead the way at (2-1), AND they are tied with the other (2-1) team in the division...the Titans.
-- The biggest shock, maybe, of Faux Weeks 1-3? The Chargers lead the AFC West at (2-1)...the Chiefs lose their first two games and sit at (1-2).
-- The Eagles are one of three undefeated NFC teams, and they lead the NFC East by a game over the surprising Commanders at (2-1).
-- The Lions are also undefeated (3-0) and lead the Packers (2-1) by a game...with winless Chicago and Minnesota in the NFC North basement.
-- No team is above .500 in the NFC South, as ATL-NO-TB all sit atop the division at (1-2).
-- The other undefeated team in the NFC is from the NFC West and is not what you think – Seattle begins (3-0) trailed by the Rams (2-1) and the (1-2) 49ers.
-- NE, MIN, CHI, ARI, CAR are all winless in this first leg of the Faux season.
-- CIN, BAL, DET, SEA, PHI being the ‘undefeateds’ through three games. If you’re surprised by Seattle on the list, consider they start with DEN-NE...then Week 3 is Miami at Seattle. It’s not impossible...
| AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| BUF | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| MIA | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| NYJ | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| NE | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| CIN | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| BAL | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| CLE | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| PIT | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| TEN | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| HOU | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| IND | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| JAX | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| LAC | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| KC | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| LV | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| DEN | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
| PHI | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| WSH | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| DAL | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| NYG | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
| DET | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| GB | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| CHI | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| MIN | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
| ATL | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| NO | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| TB | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| CAR | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
| =============== | ||||||
| NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
| SEA | … | 3 | - | 0 | = | 1.000 |
| LAR | … | 2 | - | 1 | = | 0.667 |
| SF | … | 1 | - | 2 | = | 0.333 |
| ARI | … | 0 | - | 3 | = | 0.000 |
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