INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 12 week in Nov. 2023)
Game Overview...
The Rams scored first, to go up 7-0...then the Cardinals answered with a TD, then went for two and jumped ahead 8-7 with the home crowd loving it!
Then the Rams annihilated the Cardinals from there...on both sides of the ball. It wasn’t even close...the Rams looked pretty good, and the Cardinals looked lost and defeated...what usually happens to them in the 2nd-half of games, it happened here and then some.
The Rams (5-6) are back in the playoff hunt...a game out of the wild card and about to catch fading Seattle, and the Rams own the tiebreaker over Seattle now and forever this season. I think the Rams are making the playoffs IF they beat the Browns at home Week 13...and if they wind up in the playoffs, that will pay-off some bets we made on them making the playoffs back when they were (1-2) and long shots to do such a thing.
The Cardinals are (2-10) and battling for the #1 draft pick with (1-10) Carolina and (2-9) New England. Arizona likely finishes with 3 wins and falls short of the #1 pick...but a top 3 picks will be fine.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Rams would go on to beat the Browns in a few weeks and did make the playoffs.
Arizona made a bad mistake beating the hapless Eagles at Philly Week 17 to get a 4th win and fall out of the race for the #1 pick...they could’ve gotten the #2 pick if they had lost Week 17.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Kyren Williams (16-143-0, 6-61-2/6) returned to action with 200+ yards and 2 TDs...he’s definitely ‘the man’ for the Rams.
I don’t get it. I’m watching him in this game, and all year, and he doesn’t look any different than a million other smaller RBs. But in this game, the Rams blew wide open holes for him, and he took the gift. Later in the game, with the Rams up big, and Kyren just getting back to work from being on IR for several weeks, and the Rams talking all week about making sure not to overdo it with Kyren...well, Kyren was still in the game taking touches/hits. That’s the NFL that I know...moronic player management in-game. They LOVE Kyren to a fault.
Royce Freeman (13-77-1) is definitely the #2 RB...he got a lot of relief touches as the Rams just battered the Cardinals run defense...the nonexistent run defense.
The Steelers are going to get over big on this Arizona run defense Week 13.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Steelers rushed for 130 yards against Arizona but didn’t look great doing it...but it was because Kenny Pickett got hurt early and was replaced by Mitch Trubisky and the offense got drug down more.
Kyren Williams was back from his injury and rushed for 100+ yards and would go on to rush for 100+ yards in three of his next 4 games as well.
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-- The Rams run game led the way, and then Matt Stafford (25-33 for 229 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) cashed in a season high 4 TDs passes...two of them screens/flares to Kyren. Nothing special here from Stafford...he’s been overdue a game like this for a while. Stafford has been pretty good all season, but never seems to rack TD passes...he did here.
-- Arizona did a good job of keeping the ball away from the Rams WRs, but then Stafford just used the RBs and TE to move the ball. But just to note on the Rams WRs... This was another game where it was just obvious to me watching that Stafford’s comfort is with Puka Nacua (4-27-0/8) now...not Cooper Kupp (3-18-0/5...2/5 QS).
We have no choice but to think the flopping Kupp of late...is the real Kupp for the ROS. Kupp looks fine enough, but he’s running more medium and deep routes and Puka is running more of the routes that made Kupp a star the prior years.
Kupp’s averaging, in his last 3 games: 2.0 rec. (4.3 targets), 22.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. He has 1 TD catch this season.
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2024 COMMENTS: This was Kupp’s 5th straight game under 50 yards receiving...still not 100%. Next week’s game would be his 6th straight under 50...then Kupp would perk up again.
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-- We’re 3 games in on Kyler Murray’s (27-45 for 256 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 1-2-1) return and the story is the same each game...mediocre results/output, FF week saved by a rushing TD...he’s rushed for a TD in every game back so far. That isn’t likely to hold. Just one rushing attempt here...for a TD...a short one...another reason to FF-hate James Conner.
Kyler has yet to play not-in-a-dome in his 2023 return...big difference playing at colder, probably rainy/wet Pittsburgh in Week 13.
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2024 COMMENTS: Kyler would go on to have his worst game of the season at PIT the following week (56% Comp. Pct., 145 yards).
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-- Marquise Brown (6-88-0/12) finally looked better/quicker here. The connection with Kyler still isn’t what I expected, but it was better here. A good sign, I hope.
Kyler still looks way more comfortable with Greg Dortch (3-27-1/9) and Trey McBride (7-60-0/9). I do not detect a BFF desperation to work Marquise...a thing that was there last year, but not this year.
Dortch will be a WR2/3 threat with WR1 upside Week 13 IF Michael Wilson is out again, and I think he will be. Marquise would draw the hot Joey Porter in coverage a bunch...more opportunity for Dortch and McBride.
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2024 COMMENTS: Speaking of under 50 yards in a game streak... Brown ended a five-week streak of producing under 50 yards each game here.
BUT... Brown would not catch a pass the rest of the season after this game. He had no catches on 3 targets and left the game halfway through the following week and then tried to give it a go the next week, but no targets playing about a quarter, and then was done for the year due to the injury.
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-- A quick note on new ARI RB Michael Carter (4-19-0, 4-15-0/4), formerly the one-time important draft pick of the NY Jets...
This was his first real play time for Arizona, since being cut by NYJ. Why did he get cut? I have no idea. He has a strong background/character...or did from my college scouting studies. He played well in his rookie season. Then they took Breece Hall and kinda cooled quickly on Carter. He got treated poorly by NYJ’s staff the past two years, but he’s supposed to be a coach’s kinda player. Surprising.
Carter was always destined to be a satellite, pass catching/3rd-down-ish type back. We got a taste of that here...4 catches. Half of them were super late in a blowout...but that’s what’s to consider – if Arizona is down a lot, will they then have Carter in-game a bunch over sluggish James Conner (6-27-0, 4-5-0/5)? And will that mean Carter might have some PPR value in deeper league situations? Just thinking out loud.
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2024 COMMENTS: Of course, no catches the following week for Carter...then 3 catches the following week, then barely used in the passing game over the final 3 games – except a 7 carry for 61 yards run game mild shock vs. Philly Week 17. Carter showed some sparks with Arizona, but not enough to get my interest for FF 2024.
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-- Just one last note from this game...on LAR CB Ahkello Witherspoon (2 tackles, 3 PDs). That note is: he’s playing out of his mind right now. One of the best corners in the NFL this year. He really stood out here.
This pretty solid, emerging DST faces Flacco/DTR Week 13. Witherspoon likely on Amari Cooper...trouble for Amari, who has had nothing but trouble lately.
Week 15 v. WSH...Week 17 v. NYG for this DST. Something to take note of.
The Rams defense is ranked...
The #12 pass defense (by yards)
The #3 best pass defense (by pass TDs allowed)
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2024 COMMENTS: Witherspoon was darn good for a while. Started to give up more big plays later in the season. He sits unsigned at this point/stage. I think he’ll wind up in Atlanta, but that’s just a guess.
The Rams defense has been low key really good to this point in 2023 season, and now their offense is about to step up – and the combination of the two units emerging would lead to a win streak, nearly undefeated the rest of the season and getting into the playoffs and giving the Lions a challenge in the playoffs.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Kupp
54 = Puka
40 = Demarcus Rob? Surprising
24 = Atwell
41 = Kyren
23 = R Freeman
62 = Mq Brown
54 = Dortch
53 = Rondale
30 = Conner
27 = M Carter
14 = Demercado
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