INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
==================================
(Original comments written post-Week 8 week in Oct. 2023)
Game Overview...
This game began with the Rams sacking Dak three times in-a-row...the first three plays, three sacks. One of them waived off for defensive holding...and then the game spiraled from there for the Rams.
Dallas had some penalty help to score on their first drive, to take a 7-0 lead. The Rams drove right down the field in response, but in the red zone there was a near tackle of Cooper Kupp in the middle of his route and the pass went his way...but no call, Rams settled for a field goal. It was that kind of game for the Rams.
Soon after, a Stafford-Kupp route mix up and an easy pick-six served up for Dallas and the floodgates opened. Later...a blocked punt and more penalty help -- and Dallas was up 33-3 with two minutes before the half with Stafford having a sore/banged up hand. BUT that didn’t stop Stafford from leading a 2-minute drill TD drive to before the half, and then a TD drive coming out of the half – suddenly, it was just 33-17 Dallas, with Rams having momentum.
Stafford hurt his hand for the final time though...and Brett Rypien took over and everything fell apart from there. It was a big Dallas win, but it wasn’t as great as you’d think it was...based on my rewatch.
Dallas is now (5-2) with big wins over bad teams as the theme for their season so far. I think they are going to get whacked by Philly this week (at PHI) and wind up a distant wild card in the NFC East around 10-11 wins.
The Rams are such tough luck losers every week. They are a really good ‘bad’ team at (3-5), a team that could be 4-4/5-3 with a little good luck in some of their narrow losses. Here’s who the Rams have lost to this season: SF-CIN-PHI-PIT-DAL. With a win this week and depending upon what some of the NFC South teams do...the Rams are right in the wild card.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: Dallas would lose the following week to Philly, but it was a close game...likely costing them the NFC East title in the long view.
The Rams would not bounce back the following week. In fact, things were getting worse – Stafford’s hand and other things were too messed up to play and he sat out for Brett Rypien to start and be a mess, ultimately for the Rams to get whacked by the Packers 20-3...and then going into their BYE week after on a three-game losing streak and losers of four of their last 5 games. I was still clinging to hope, probably delusional as a bettor of it, that the Rams would find a way to the playoffs.
They would...
**********************************************
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- The big FF news from this game...the Matt Stafford injury (13-22 for 162 yards, 1 TD/1 INT).
He has a UCL sprain in his throwing hand thumb. He’s got a best-case scenario injury from what was feared. He’s good enough to where they have ruled out IR for Stafford...he’s listed day-to-day. I think it’s 50-50 whether Stafford plays Week 9.
I’ll bet against him playing Week 9...because they can rest him...and his thumb AND his hip...and they are on a Week 10 BYE, so Stafford can get 2-3 weeks of healing by skipping Week 9 – but he could go, thinking he can play through it and then have two weeks to heal with the bye.
Brett Rypien (5-10 for 42 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is a drop off for sure, but with Sean McVay we’ve seen him design a solid, simple plan for like Baker Mayfield last season or John Wofford, etc. They can get by for a week.
What Rypien did in this game, taking over, was a lot of 3-step drops and fire short to Kupp-Nacua-Higbee. I think, with Rypien, we’d see what Bryce Young does...quick passes and if any actual deep-in-the-pocket pocket time, it’s gonna be a mess.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: The season may have turned on the decision by Sean McVay to hold Stafford out Week 9 and let him get 3 weeks to heal, using the BYE week to their advantage. Stafford was about to go a strong QB1 run for FF...but it SO didn’t look like it would be possible at this point in time.
**********************************************
-- If Rypien does a Bryce Young impression (and I’m picking on Young but a lot of head coaches, especially ex-defensive coordinator ones, run a similar ‘quick pass’/safe passing game) then look at what Bryce does for his WRs...a ton of catches/targets for the main guy (Thielen) and decent targets for the other WR (Mingo)...and the WRs ebb and flow on targets/output with Bryce based on if they’re winning (then lower volume) or losing (then high volume quick passes vs. prevent-ish defenses).
Cooper Kupp (4-21-0/10), for example, could see 10+ targets, 7-8+ catches for just 50+ yards and possibly a lucky TD. The TDs will be rare with Rypien, but the catch counts for some WRs can be real/simple.
Puka Nacua (3-43-0/7) offers the same hope...they can just interchange throws to Kupp-Puka, mix it up with the short bubble screen and short timing sideline throws. It won’t be as pretty or as effective as Stafford running it...but there could be enough volume to where it makes up for the quality.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: Kupp would go 2 rec., 48 yards on 7 targets.
Puka would go 3 rec. for 32 yards on 7 targets. Puka was fading away after an exaggerated start. He would turn it back around later in the season.
**********************************************
-- The Rams backfield continues to be a 60/40 split...
Darrell Henderson (12-31-0, 3-54-0/3) is the slight ‘lead’ back.
Royce Freeman (9-44-1, 0-0-0/0) is the 40% support.
Freeman got the short TD run here, but it was Henderson who ran it in the goal-to-go situation from the 5+ yar5ds line down to the 1-yard line, where Freeman came in and vultured it.
More of the same vs. weak versus the run Green Bay.
-- Dak Prescott (25-31 for 304 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) had his best game of the season...or of the 2022 season as well. Nothing really has changed with Dak, he just had one of those games. In his prior 4 games, Dak had 4 TDs/4 INTs total. That’s more his norm/speed.
At home, Dak has 7 TDs/1 INT (3 games). On the road, 3 TDs/4 INTs in four games. He’s on the road v. Philly this week.
-- Dak seems to have remembered Brandin Cooks (3-49-1/4) is on the team lately...a TD in each of his last two games. But be careful: just 3 and 4 targets in those last two games, and that’s been the norm for him as a Cowboy AND less than 50 yards in every game this season.
-- A few people blasted me for leaning into Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco and not really going all-in on a guy like Tony Pollard (12-53-0, 1-2-0/1)...the blasting came after Pollard had 2 TDs in Week 1 and 7 catches in Week 2, a hot FF 2023 start.
Well...
Since Week 3, Pacheco is the #13 RB in PPR PPG. Rachaad is #23. Pollard is #25. It would be an even further spread away from Pollard if I used ‘since Week 4’. Pollard has rushed for 47-29-30-53 yards in a game the past 4 weeks. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1.
I think all you can do is hold and hope with Pollard. Not a good outlook this week vs. the top run defense of Philly. Top run defenses Carolina looms Week 11. Top run defense Seattle looms Week 13, the Philly again Week 14. Pollard is not going to give you the ROI you drafted/invested.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: A quick reminder of how amazing our FF 2023 was with the Rachaad/Pacheco value calls to run for the season.
Sorry to those who overinvested in Pollard while we stole Rachaad-Pacheco a few rounds later.
**********************************************
-- Using FantasyPros scoring, the Dallas-DST is scoring 14.0 FF PPG this season...the #1 DST in Fantasy. That scoring level would make them the #4 scoring PPR TE. The #25 WR. The #16 RB (tied with Pollard!). And the #23 QB season-to-date.
DSTs matter much more than the time we allot to them, by and large, in the FF community.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: The Dallas DST would collapse soon enough...once the schedule flipped against them having to play actual ‘good’ teams. But to start the season, wow was this defense soaring.
**********************************************
– Watch out for this new Rams kicker, Lucas Havrisik (2/2 FG). He has a rocket launcher for a leg. He has been on NFL practice squads the last two seasons, before being poached by the Rams last week.
**********************************************
2024 COMMENTS: A big leg with sketchy accuracy...Havrisik was a PK1 for a stretch in 2023, then it came apart so fast and he was replaced.
**********************************************
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Freeman
29 = Henderson
62 = Kupp
60 = Atwell
57 = Puka
52 = Ferguson
25 = Schoonmaker
53 = Lamb
40 = Cooks
33 = Gallup
29 = Tolbert
42 = Pollard
23 = Dowdle
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
