INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 6 week in Oct. 2023)
Game Overview...
Before rewatching this game, my memory was that the Rams kinda controlled the Cardinals throughout and it was the end of the nice run Arizona was having of putting up against tough opponents. I remembered it as the first time I saw Arizona ‘flat’.
But rewatching it...that was not accurate. Arizona took a quick 3-0 lead, inches from a 7-0 lead. The Cardinals led this game 9-6 at the half. It wasn’t the Cardinals being flat, it was a (once again) spirited Cardinals group playing good football against a talented opponent.
Credit the very, very underrated Rams for going out in the 2nd-half and just running the ball heavy and Arizona unable to stop it. The Rams defense, which is also really underrated, stepped up and kept Arizona out of the end zone on a couple of different occasions in this game.
It was a quality win for the Rams, although no one will see it that way and a quality loss for Arizona.
The Rams are now (3-3), and they are playoff bound if Matt Stafford holds up this season.
The Cardinals are a hard luck (1-5) and having to go to play a heating up, respected but still underrated Seahawks team Week 7. I wish Arizona was playing some midland team and getting points so I could bet the heck out of it, but they face Seattle...and that’s gonna be a battle for both.
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2024 COMMENTS: I can drape myself in my betting wins on the Rams to make the playoffs bets...but I also put a couple long shot, small wagers on the Arizona to make the playoffs early on 2023 as well...because they looked sneaky good to start the season – they were giving everybody fits but couldn’t close out victories. And they blew it against the Rams here too.
The Cardinals are on the come in 2024...
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Matt Stafford (15-24 for 226 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had a lower game statistically but once again, he looked good, really good to me. I am a broken record on this every week it seems – I praise Stafford while his FF numbers are ‘meh’.
Arizona’s pass defense was feisty, and they were playing the pass heavy, but then the Rams switched to an almost all run attack to start the 2nd-half and just gashed the Cardinals, who adjusted to it late and the Rams got the momentum and LAR seized control the rest of the game. So, Stafford’s pass attempts and everything else dropped when they went heavier run game because of their great run blocking O-Line in 2023.
I’m still a believer in this Rams pass game and its ability to produce numbers, even more so now that they have some injuries/changes at running back the next few weeks.
That all sounds good, but I’ve been praising this pass game since Week 1 and the outputs have been good but not great...something always holds back ‘great’ Stafford numbers (like more rushing TDs than passing TDs in games). I’m sticking by Stafford as a good #2 QB to have for your FF team in case crisis hits your #1 QB.
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2024 COMMENTS: Where I was desperate for a #2 QB in leagues where there were little waiver options, I was going with Stafford (people weren’t buying him mostly at this time) -- waiting for him to get TD passes to match his high passing yards – but it never worked until he got past his (upcoming) injury and hit Week 12 when he then launched from there.
From Weeks 12-17, Stafford was the #7 QB in PPG in Fantasy...ahead of Purdy, Baker, Mahomes, Stroud among others.
In the end, it was right...but at this time (of this report) – it was wrong/didn’t work.
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-- The Rams receiver report...
Most everything to Cooper Kupp (7-148-1/9) and everything else scattered around. That’s been more Stafford’s pattern with Kupp, but just a week ago it was Kupp PLUS Puka Nacua (4-36-0/7) thriving.
I think when the Rams throw a lot, it will be Kupp with Puka. When the Rams can get a lead and run the ball, it will be Kupp-heavy.
Tutu Atwell (1-30-0/1) will be a random event in-between. Tutu looks great, but Kupp sucks all the targets out of the room for good reason. Tutu is a tough FF hold right now. If Kupp or Puka went down...it’s game on with Tutu. Otherwise, he’s a random WR3/Flex hope.
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2024 COMMENTS: It’s really weird to go back and see that the first two games where Cooper Kupp had come back in 2023, he was ‘old Cooper Kupp’...dispatching Puka Nacua to being ‘the other guy’. In his first two games back from his injury, Kupp averaged 7.5 rec. (10.5 targets), 133.0 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game...while Puka averaged 5.5 rec. (9.0 targets), 48.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game.
All seemed right with the Rams passing game world at this point, but then Kupp is gonna face off the earth in the next 6 games from here and Puka wasn’t much better in that same span, and Stafford would be injured in there and even missing a game.
Then Stafford would return after the BYE and catch fire, as would the entire Rams team.
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-- Kyren Williams (20-158-1) and Ronnie Rivers (3-9-0, 1-4-0/1) both went down and out and now the Rams have to scramble for RBs.
The way I see this going: Rookie Zach Evans (4-10-0) will likely get some 1st and 2nd-down touches, an opportunity to show he’s viable. Darrell Henderson will likely pick up the 3rd-down duties and have a chance for more 1st and 2nd-down work IF Evans fails. Royce Freeman will be the #3 for insurance.
But Sean McVay is talking about possibly activating all four RBs, which three of them already are...but a 4th would be Myles Gaskin. And McVay is showing some smitten-ness with Gaskin, so I’m waiting to see if they activate him Saturday night.
It’s a cluster shot in the dark.
One of them will be the Kyren handcuff in a few weeks...that’s the thing I’m looking at in deeper leagues. I think Henderson or Gaskin are in a better spot than Evans for that.
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2024 COMMENTS: Just as Kyren got going, he got hurt and would miss several games. I had several Ronnie Rivers shares of stock waiting for the Kyren injury I felt was coming, and I got it...and then Rivers got hurt right after Kyren did. Fantasy RBs are fickle greased pigs to try to catch in-season...
Remember when the Rams had to scramble and get Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman, and Myles Gaskin...and then had to use them for several weeks. Should be no surprise LAR is about to lose three games in a row and be in a tailspin...and they were (at the time) unsure if Stafford (about to get hurt) would even be back again this (2023) season.
The Rams did not look like a future playoff team at this point...and it’s about to get worse...before it got better.
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-- Kyler Murray is set to start practicing for Arizona next week.
From a source: They think Kyler will be brought back slowly...practice with the team for the next few weeks then get activated and then doesn’t have to start just because he’s active. No need at all to rush him back for any reason. Week 10 at home vs. ATL is the fastest spot my source is thinking, but Week 11-12 is possible. And listening to Ian Rapport in an interview the other day – he kinda felt that timeline vibe too from his observations/conversations.
Kyler didn’t even get activated from IR yet. He’s not really ‘ready’ right now...and no need to rush.
Josh Dobbs (21-41 for 235 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 7-47-0) played decently in this game. He missed some throws, but mostly because of the Rams coverage. He had an opening drive deep ball throw to Marquise in the end zone, on the money, but the (beaten) defender reached out/lunged an outstretched hand and just got enough of it to knock it away and it was just a slog against the Rams defense from there.
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2024 COMMENTS: And it was Week 10 that Kyler got his first start.
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-- Who is Dobbs throwing to?
It’s Marquise Brown (4-34-0/11) becoming the Stefon Diggs to the Dobbs’ Josh Allen...Dobbs is going at Marquise all that he can. A weak stat line here for MB, but it was close to a 6-7 catch 80-100+ yards and a TD or two type of game.
It’s not Michael Wilson’s (3-62-0/4) time yet. It especially won’t be when Kyler comes back.
Rondale Moore (4-30-0/7, 3 carries for -4 yards) is doing that RB/WR thing on a few snaps each game, but nothing amazing coming from it...WR3/4 work with hope he breaks one.
Also, a shift on targeting at TE...Zach Ertz (2-22-0/5) was running a Dobbs top throw with Marquise the first few weeks of the season, but now that’s tailing off AND Trey McBride (4-62-0/5) is rising. If Arizona loses this week (even if they don’t), Ertz is likely gonna get traded and then McBride is in a much better spot to FF usefulness.
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2024 COMMENTS: Ertz started out the 2023 season decently then faded/got hurt and then got cut/not traded.
Marquise Brown was running hot early on, but then he hurt his foot and faded.
Michael Wilson showed blips of what could be...but then he got hurt as well 2nd-half of the season.
Trey McBride was a beneficiary of all the missing/hampered WRs, and if that’s true – then he’s being overvalued in FF going into 2024.
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-- I didn’t understand the Arizona backfield usage in this game. Emari Demercado (2-11-0, 1-6-0/1) led the RBs in snaps but barely got touches, even after showing well the week before.
Keaontay Ingram (10-40-0, 2-11-0/2) ‘started’ and took 10 carries and worked as a starter but was killing drives like Najee Harris.
The unusual thing, the revelatory thing from this tape...was just how good/solid Damien Williams (8-36-0, 1-8-0/1) looked. Unusual in that he was just signed the prior week, then rocketed to active and took a bunch of touches here...and he looked good, definitely better than Ingram – for whatever that is worth.
Williams is something deep for those in deep leagues in an RB crisis, perhaps.
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2024 COMMENTS: Williams would be hurt coming out of this game, and it wasn’t known until mid-the-next-week. Keaontay had his moment here, and it was Demercado taking over after...Ingram getting cut a few weeks later...Michael Carter rising in place of Dam. Williams...then James Conner returned for a nice finish to the season.
Trey Benson has arrived to fix ALL this going forward...whether right away in 2024...or beginning 2025.
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-- LAR DE Jonah Williams (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) is starting to show a little more each week. Playing about 50% of the snaps though. He’s a ‘keep an eye on’ deep IDP watch list.
-- The Rams-DST
#13 defense against the pass.
#1t for least number of pass TDs allowed
#22 against the run.
#11t in PPG allowed.
Facing the Steelers Week 7...a Steelers team who can’t run and will find it tough to pass on the Rams. I kinda like the LAR DST this week. The Steelers offensive scheme is a joke.
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2024 COMMENTS: The Rams held the Steelers to 300 yards of offense but allowed 24 points and didn’t get a turnover in a sad loss to the Steelers. The Rams D wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t FF worthy either...and the Rams offense tanked in this game...credit a nice Steelers performance.
This was the beginning of the Rams fall midseason...this began a 3-game losing streak where Stafford got banged up and missed a game and things looked like they were about to fall apart as they headed into their BYE Week 10.
But, oh how things were gonna change after that BYE...
But we got two more bad losses coming the next games/reports before we get to ‘the turn’.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Kupp
50 = Puka
50 = Tutu
47 = Kyren
06 = Evans
04 = Rivers
44 = McBride
44 = Ertz
15 = Swaim
33 = Demercado
28 = Ingram
13 = Dam Williams
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