INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 5 week in Oct. 2023)
Game Overview...
I am going to reduce/eliminate my listening to Colin Cowherd, who I really respect, because he is flying by the seat of his pants...making up narratives to describe football things (because his job is to describe things) that fits whatever he is thinking that day – and he’s a pro at broadcasting so he really believes what he says and it comes through to effect people...including me, when I partake.
And that’s pretty much everyone in the football media...they gin up a belief from limited info/study – so they ‘see what they wanna see’ in a game result and just fit stories and theories in that matches their sudden or preconceived beliefs...’beliefs’ rooted in hearsay and some highlights they saw or a solo night game they watched with a cocktail.
I pretty much stopped listening to Colin a while ago because I saw this divergence happening – a divergence of what Colin was passionately saying/describing about teams and games, that when I didn’t have time (pre-football career) to watch it, he sounded reasonable and something to just trust/run with in my busy life...but when I began to study all the tape of all the games all the time, I didn’t see the same things on teams, players, etc., that Colin did...actually, usually, quite the opposite.
Colin is better than 99% of the media out there in football analysis, but he’s as wrong as any one of them because he is not really studying it. He can’t be, because he has way too much money and other businesses and a life to enjoy...he’s not grinding the tape, he’s not ‘living it’ in the trenches...and why should he? He’s listening to other talented analysts and broadcasters...who also aren’t ‘living it’ and between that and watching some games/highlights, Colin forms strong opinions and goes off to the races with flawed i8nformation. As do they all. And I would too if I were them – they get paid a lot of money to make eloquent knee-jerk reactions the day after and then go play golf and go to the gym for most of their day…and not studying tape in a dark room all day. I don’t blame them – I would do it if they gave me the big money based on little study but confident broadcasting.
There’s a reason why underdogs cover more than favorites – because the public is always working with ‘feelings’/no-context/late information.
Why am I talking about Colin Cowherd and all this other stuff to start this game report? I’m not sure...I just sit down and start typing and things happen...but I do have a reason.
I spend a lot of my non-work time listening to information about things, some football, some other interests...mostly business and stock market stuff. When I walk from my office to the kitchen...I’ve got my phone on playing a video off YouTube that I listen to as I go make coffee or swap the dishwasher or walk the dog. I can’t take silence. I want to maximize my (seemingly) ‘dead time’...so I listen to news, comedy, business, football press conferences, football hot takes, etc., when showering, mowing the lawn, driving to the store...in the store grocery shopping (via airpods, I’m not an animal listening to it on speaker in public like I see others do), while cooking, etc. I’m looking for information that I can use about football or life.
Well, Colin has a video podcast he does...like 15 minutes or so each day, reactions to last night’s football game/s, etc. I listened to one about a week ago...and then the YouTube algorithms started loading me up on them each day, and I’ve listened to a few over the past week because Colin is interesting. But what he sees, I mostly disagree with on football game/player analysis for the past 5 or so years...that’s why I stopped listening to him regularly, even though I enjoy him – because he either knows the obvious or is leading me down the wrong road and it gets into my head about some game/team. I don’t need him in my head...I need to fully trust my own studies. And this Rams-Eagles game is a prime example of the problem...
Colin’s take on the Eagles-Rams game was (paraphrasing): The Eagles are so great and so physical that they just dominated a weaker, but ‘game’ Rams team. So, that general theory made sense because watching this game live (along with the other multiple games at the same time), I knew that the Rams were in it early and then I just remember the Eagles always having the ball in the 2nd-half and just grinding away a victory. And I paid attention to it Sunday amidst all the other games because I bet on LAR +4.0. Colin’s next-day-take seemed logical. And it had some strands of truth...
But then I rewatched/studied the game tape – and I didn’t see Colin’s view at all. Yes, the Eagles played physical, but so did the Rams. This was a war of two really good teams going at it. And it was not determined by the Eagles overwhelming physicality. It was determined by Jalen Hurts having an excellent, excellent passing game...he was unreal accurate this game...the first time all 2023 he’s been like this...and the Rams coverage being a minor step below A.J. Brown. But the real story/major takeaway evaded Colin...
The Rams had a 14-10 lead, 30 seconds before the half...because whatever the Eagles dished out...the Rams dished it back. But the Eagles then went 75-yards in 30 seconds for a touchdown at the buzzer...a one-handed catch/perfect deep throw to AJB, followed by a pass interference bomb to the end zone that got Philly to the 1-yard line with :02 seconds left...and they did the Brotherly Shove and scored to take a halftime lead 17-14...they got very lucky with that score, because the Rams outplayed them in the 1st-half – and at the same time the Rams had a few ‘just missed’ throws downfield to open guys that Jalen Hurts didn’t miss hardly any, the Rams missed 2-3 key ones and Puka dropped a 3rd-down easy conversion that might have had led to a bigger Rams lead and had Philly on the ropes in the 1st-half. The little things gave Philly an edge for the win. The Rams were not outplayed...if they were, it wasn’t by much.
I’m saying all this because you need to know, as a bettor and FF player – the Rams are really very good...ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL (and not...’Aaron Donald and a bunch of kids’, as Colin said exactly...and incorrectly). The Rams pushed Philly to the limit, but the Eagles played overall better (near perfect) in the passing game and won it, deservedly so. The Rams also pushed the 49ers to the limit...the only team to do so this season. The Rams are no joke and might go on a winning spree in a week or two+ and be one of the talks of the league.
The Eagles are going to win the NFC East...as long as Hurts stays healthy...win it with ease.
The Rams are going to the playoffs...as long as Stafford stays healthy. The Rams three losses: battles/wars with SF-CIN-PHI...arguably three of the 4 best teams in the NFL...and they took them all to the limit.
No, Colin...the Rams aren’t undermanned or ‘Aaron Donald and a bunch of kids’ on defense...just because you have no idea who any of their talent is outside of Donald...like 99% of the public because ‘ESPN’ (and the public isn’t paid to analyze games...you are)...and the Rams WERE JUST AS PHYSICAL as the Eagles.
The Rams are hanging with the big boys and could’ve won any of the SF-CIN-PHI games despite some O-Line injuries and a young secondary. I would not underrate the Rams any week, as long as Stafford is there. Saying that the Rams got pushed around by the Eagles here is not right...it’s unstudied and is just words to support a theory from 30,000 feet. It’s offensive, to me as a scout, that this was said by Colin – but when I heard him say it at first while making coffee...it sounded so good, sounded like it made sense. He hit all the beats on how good the Eagles are organizationally and yadda yadda. 10 minutes or so of how good the Eagles are/were is not the real story of this game – there should’ve been as much time, more time spent talking about how good the Rams are, how on-the-come they are. But that’s not as sexy to the airwaves to say...and you’d have to have watched all the tape of their games and all the other games all week to get a real sense of it.
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2024 COMMENTS: I could tell (now) that I was hurried, frantic while writing this opener...after just now re-reading it. BUT...it was fairly accurate and on-point today, when we look back at it.
The Rams could’ve/should’ve won this game. These two teams would flip in their respective 2nd-half of their seasons. Remember when Philly was 10-1 and ruling the football world in 2023? It was a fraud, as I said most weeks in 2023 after studying their game tape.
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*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- That was as good a Jalen Hurts (25-38 for 303 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 15-72-1...4/1 QS) game as you will see. So accurate...and when the Rams pushed the Eagles O-Line back, and they did often in pass protection, Hurts escaped and ran out of it like his old days of high-end running.
Hurts is now the #3 QB in FF PPG among all QBs (4pts pass TD) so far this season. ‘Big 3’...he is.
-- Hurts did not throw much to Devonta Smith (1-6-0/5...3/2 QS) this game, but that was just a blip. A.J. Brown (6-127-0/8...4/1 QS) was killing coverage and Dallas Goedert (8-117-1/9...1/4 QS) finally got used as a weapon in a game in 2023. Next week, Smith will probably lead all the Eagles receivers...that’s the way it usually flows.
I’d say Devonta is a ‘buy low’ but most people know the drill with him. He’s properly priced. I don’t see a big angle to get in on him this week but having had a bad game...he is more available for sure this week.
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2024 COMMENTS: DeVonta had two so-so games after this one, then he went on a tear.
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-- The Eagles had a 38/22 minute time of possession advantage. Part of that advantage was the Rams moving down the field so quickly through the air...and some of it was Rams drives stalled by inches or big plays just missed. Stafford made some correct reads and throws to open receivers in tighter windows, and they just missed by a hair...Stafford left 100+ yards and at least 1 TD on the table by mere inches. Credit some Philly pass rush pressure, but the throws got off and were on the money...almost. Hurts hit his big money throws and Stafford missed a few...that was the difference in the game.
When the Rams get a schedule break they may boat race some opponents through the air and there will be stats o’ plenty for the skill position players to go with. Might be Week 7 v. PIT or Week 8 at Dallas where we see the power of this Sean McVay new design offense really pop.
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2024 COMMENTS: Stafford would get banged up and try to play through it but got a Week 9 BYE rest and then Week 12 he went on a six-game run with a (5-1) record and 15 TD passes/3 INTs with 284.2 passing yards per game. He’d then throw for 367 yards and 2 TDs/0 INTs in his lone playoff game.
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-- Cooper Kupp (8-118-0/12) was back for his 2023 debut, and it was like he never left.
Puka Nacua (7-71-1/11) was clearly Stafford’s second choice behind Kupp. Almost co-favorites, but Kupp the lead.
Tutu Atwell (2-9-1/5) got the short end of the output stick, but I wouldn’t panic or give up on him just yet. He is going to have some big games on big plays in this offense. He was on the business end of that missed TD pass downfield that I mentioned – it was a 50+ yard sizzler down the middle, through traffic and right on Atwell in full stride...but just about a foot or two in front of him. Stafford hits that throw and the Rams take back the lead and we got a ball game coming down the stretch.
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2024 COMMENTS: I thought all along that Kupp would return to reclaim his throne and push Puka to a #2 target, but that would not be the case outside of this first return game from Kupp. I would’ve never guessed this to happen in a million years. It’s so strange how fast Stafford dropped that beautiful Kupp connection from the past...for a rookie.
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-- Kyren Williams (13-53-0, 2-4-0/2) is a ‘buy low’...he is a great fit in this offense. He’s smaller but bulked up from his college days and much quicker than his 40-time and college tape showed me. And the Rams aren’t messing around...Kyren got 15 total touches, Ronnie Rivers (1-1-0) got one.
There are so many lead backs who are technically better than Kyren, but rare few of them are in a great offense to take advantage of like Kyren...and no seeming threat right now from Ronnie Rivers, but he is the handcuff.
-- Comments about these two DSTs...
The Eagles have not been great on defense this season, and especially bad on pass defense. But Philly held the Rams to 14 points and Stafford to just 222 yards passing, when Stafford had been dealing 300+ yard games like nothing prior.
I don’t think this was a big step forward by the Eagles D...more Stafford just missed a third TD pass and 100+ more yards in this game by a few whiskers. The Eagles D played well, great pressure by the front but they exposable in the back end by good offenses and mediocre ones.
Facing Zach Wilson this week...my money would be on the Eagles D, but Week 6 v. Miami...I’ll not be using the Philly-DST.
The Rams-DST played well here...despite the huge time of possession advantage and Hurts being on fire...just 23 points, two TDs and 3 FGs. The Rams were tough in the red zone on Philly. This isn’t a bad defensive unit. Not great, but not bad. When it gets a nice matchup, it is usable. Week 7 v. PIT may be that opportunity. Week 6 v. ARI might be something of a deep sleeper for the LAR-DST.
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2024 COMMENTS: I sniffed out this Philly D way before the football world did. It was their eventual death down the stretch and into the playoffs. And Zach Wilson beat them the following week.
The Rams are now (2-3) and still not drawing any real attention. They’re about to get to (3-3) next week...then lose 3 games in a row with Stafford out hurt for one of the losses...and the season seemed doomed. But it wasn’t...
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Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Puka
53 = Kupp
50 = Tutu
47 = Kyren W
09 = Rivers
49 = Swift
30 = Gainwell
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