INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 4 week in Oct. 2023)
Game Overview...
Thank goodness I got to watch/study this game after watching/studying Jacksonville-Atlanta...I got to wash the bad taste of bland football from London out of my mouth with a delightful meal of Rams-Colts.
The Rams jumped out to a 20-0 lead at the half...could’ve been 23-0 but Brett Maher missed a long FG with less than a minute left before the break. Eventually, the Rams did lead 23-0...and another missed FG happened as well...or this could’ve been getting out of hand. Instead, because no lead is safe in the NFL, a bunch of weird events and ‘nails’ play from Anthony Richardson led a comeback and Indy tied it 23-23 and had a shot to win it late, but a receiver dropped a pass that would’ve allowed Indy to kick a field goal for a late game win.
The Rams also just missed their late chance to win after that, sending it to OT...where the Rams then buckled down and raced right down the field and scored a TD to win it right away.
The Rams are getting ready to be the top passing team in the NFL...the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ 2.0...if/when they get Cooper Kupp back in the mix. The future of NFL offenses is in Los Angeles right now – spread it out, small scat back RBs who are great checkdowns, all talent WR group, good O-Line, quick trigger/accurate QB and just go-go-go.
The Rams had 12 possessions in this game...they were in scoring position on the first 6 drives (TD or FG or missed FG). They finished with 8 of 12 drives in scoring position/scored. Imagine what will happen if/when Cooper Kupp returns? Everyone is all up in the Miami Dolphins business craving their every ‘THING’ for FF while the ESPN types are doing features on their offense and there will be non-stop Achane hype all Sunday morning. As usual, the real story hasn’t been discovered – the Rams are the future of NFL offenses, the Rams are THE NOW. Miami is neat too, but the Rams are running way under the radar.
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2024 COMMENTS: Well...at this point in 2023, Miami was EVERYTHING and well ahead in most offensive categories – but the Rams did surpass them from Week 6-7 on, but not by much. It was about even. The Rams would not be the ‘greatest show on turf 2.0’ when Kupp returned. In fact, they took a dive upon his return...then Stafford got hurt...and this team was (3-6) going into their Week 10 bye. THEN Stafford healed up and the Rams won 7 of their final 8 games, their one loss in OT to the Ravens, which they should’ve won.
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I was talking to an Eagles fan about the issues with Philly. They weren’t having it. They said, “Well I will admit the schedule gets a lot tougher once we (PHI) get through this schedule break with the Rams-Jets the next two weeks.”
I almost threw up after he finished that sentence. I felt so bad...you poor lost soul. The Rams and Jets are teams you DO NOT want to play right now.
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2024 COMMENTS: Philly did handle the Rams...then lost to the Jets...their only loss in their first 11 games...THEN the Eagles collapse came.
I was seeing the future with LAR and PHI...I was just about 5-6 weeks too early.
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The Rams are really good – great offense, and a pretty sneaky good defense. They will make the playoffs as long as Matt Stafford makes it through the season alive – there is no real Plan B for LAR at QB. It’s Stafford or bust.
All this Rams talk over looks just how good the Colts are. Flawed, but good...because Anthony Richardson IS ALL THAT. He’s already FF arrived, and he’s only going to get better. Down 23-0 in the 3rd-quarter, Richardson singlehandedly led the comeback and had a chance to win late but Kylen Granson dropped a stunning throw, a Hall of Fame throw that would have miraculously converted a 3rd & long and set the Colts up to run the clock and kick a field goal at the buzzer.
As long as the Colts have Richardson, they can win games...and he’s going to get better every game.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- The possibilities of where this Rams offense is going is beautiful...and even more wonderful that it’s flying under the mainstream and underground’s radar.
Matt Stafford (27-40 for 319 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-14-0/8...0/4 QS) is #1 in passing attempts and #2 in passing yards, but he’s way off in TDs...which is holding down his FF scoring...which makes him a great ‘buy low’ if anyone needs it...even if just for a #2 QB.
Imagine where this goes when the starting WR trio is: Kupp-Puka-Tutu. Let’s give it a different name than ‘Greatest Show on Turf 2.0’...although that makes sense. We should call it the ‘Greatest Route Running Show on Turf’. Stafford is going to average 300+ yards a game and should lead the NFL in passing yards in the end, if he can stay healthy.
Stafford’s schedule works...his next SF tough matchup game is Week 17, out of most people’s FF window. But does have PHI-WSH-PIT on the schedule to abuse.
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2024 COMMENTS: He did not abuse those next 3 opponents. The Rams started running the ball effectively instead of passing it for the fancy totals they had prior. Later on the passing game would take off, but not now.
In fact, if I would’ve told you the Rams passing game was gonna take off when they got Demarcus Robinson going – you would’ve thought I was nuts. We’ll see what week of the game reports the name ‘Demarcus Robinson’ is actually typed out... We got a while, I suppose.
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-- What will the ‘Greatest Route Running Show on Turf’ look like for FF when Cooper Kupp is back? He is the special sauce to get to the label. They aren’t there now...Kupp is what gets them there.
Kupp will be the lead, for sure. Probably not the for-sure #1 overall WR in FF, like usual, but top 5-10 (the other WRs will take some targets away). And if Kupp is practicing in full and cleared for Week 5...you gotta start him, no? Unless McVay comes out and says ‘pitch count’ or something.
Puka Nacua (9-163-1/10...3/1 QS) has the most to lose since he is working the Kupp plan in his absence. Puka will likely fall to a WR2/3 for PPR...but the volume may be such that he and Kupp are dueling PPR WR1s. I’m not cold selling Puka because Kupp returns. If I have Kupp, and I don’t have Puka...I’m using the ‘Kupp is back’ news to try to acquire Puka like a WR2/3 value...a handcuff for my Kupp...and vice-versa. And if no decent deal comes...I wait for Week 5 to play out and if Puka flops/is mediocre, tally wise, then he’ll be much cheaper next week.
Tutu Atwell (5-24-0/9...3/1 QS) is his own thing. The more attention on Kupp from defenses...the better for Tutu to roam around and make big plays. Tutu is a solid WR2 who will toggle from WR1 and WR3 weeks. There’s some chance he’s an odd man out WR3 but more likely it’s a bunch of spike games. I’m a buyer of Tutu as a WR3 valuation when Kupp officially returns and send Puka/Tutu owners running scared. Puka is a rookie, so other owners will probably hang on. Tutu is an old news, boring WR of the past...so the fact he has a weak results game here and that he’s ‘not sexy’ in FF circles, means I smell a deal for WR depth.
Tutu had a 5-24-0 game, but it was circling the wagons of a 7+ catch, 60+ yards game...a 25+ yard catch just out of bounds...and a 30+ yarder that he got P.I.’d on so he couldn’t get to the pass he was going to get to.
Tyler Higbee (5-64-0/11) should enjoy some benefits off of this WR group -- as teams can’t keep up with Kupp-Puka-Tutu, but they will try. Higbee should have some solid games. You could do worse among the random non-Kelce-Andrews TE option.
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2024 COMMENTS: Everyone would suffer upon Kupp’s return...passing game wise, for a bit. Kupp scuffled some. Puka dipped. Tutu disappeared. Higbee faded. Stafford’s totals dropped. But Kyren Williams became a legend (2023). I did not see any of that happening at all.
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-- Kyren Williams (25-103-2, 3-24-0/3...3/1 QS) ran as the lead again, but as predicted Ronnie Rivers (9-47-0, 2-10-0/2) got into the mix. You can hardly tell the difference between Kyren and Ronnie, except Ronnie is thicker built and a better runner of the ball.
They cannot keep up this workload with Kyren...and they won’t, they have no reason to when they have his clone, a thicker clone at their disposal.
Soon, Rivers will be in a full RBBC split with Kyren. Ronnie carrying the ball more, Kyren more on 3rd-downs/passing game.
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2024 COMMENTS: It would be just a couple games from here and Kyren would go down for the count. Ronnie Rivers was about to be Kyren 2.0, but he got hurt and Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman were suddenly ‘the backfield’. Man, weird to even think about...
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-- Anthony Richardson (11-25 for 200 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-56-1...2/1 QS) looks like he had a bad accuracy issue in the game (under 50% Comp. Pct.), but it’s the same issue he’s had back to college that football analysts keep misinterpreting.
Richardson had like 3-4 balls laser beamed to receivers who couldn’t catch them. Some of them jaw dropping throws I don’t think the WRs could believe happened. Richardson had a couple overthrows of open receivers downfield. You can live with that given everything else – and the overthrows are the right decisions just not delivered.
Richardson is a great passer. He has a gift. He sees things and can get the ball out so quickly that it’s gonna be lethal someday in the NFL. It’s already kinda lethal 2.5 games into his NFL career. Low volume here as LAR had a 39/24 time of possession.
Richardson is also the best RB on the team...he looks like LeGarrette Blount but runs like Nick Chubb. You have to cut Jonathan Taylor’s (or any starting Colts RB’s) rushing TD expectations in half almost due to Richardson being the best option around the goal line.
Richardson was so good here, especially considering he is 2.5 games into his NFL career and he’s already one of the 10 most lethal QBs in the league.
If I could own one QB in all of FF going forward – it would be Richardson. Over Hurts...Allen...and, yes, over Mahomes (in 4pts). I’m not dealing away Mahomes just yet, but I did all I could to draft Richardson in Dynasty behind him. I am willing to make deals for Richardson now before the price gets too far out of hand...but good luck trying to even pry him away. But it’s worth the try.
In redraft, I’ll take Richardson ROS (4pts) over Jalen Hurts push come to shove. I’m not down on Hurts...I just see that schedule and I see the way Richardson is playing just 2.5 quarters into his career and possibly adding Jonathan Taylor to take some stress/focus off of him ahead and opens up the passing game – I’m all about it.
I did not just say drop everything and trade Jalen Hurts for Anthony Richardson. I’m telling you Richardson should be FF-trusted, fully....and Hurts has huge trade value and Richardson i still being moved around like a distrusted rookie in redraft.
I am also saying that part of the brilliance of the QB ‘play’/strategy this redraft season was adding Richardson as your #2 to have lethal options at QB. Some went Pickett, and I did some, got burned, quickly scrambled into Stroud-Purdy-Richardson where I didn’t go Richardson over Pickett as my #2 QB redraft. Where I have a ‘Big 3 QB’ + Richardson, I’m sitting on a goldmine.
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2024 COMMENTS: Just to note...my Anthony Richardson REWIND study is planned for next week. I am just finishing my big Will Levis REWIND study, to be published this week.
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-- There is something going on with Richardson and Josh Downs (2-34-0/3...0/4 QS)...or trying to be something. When AR drops back to pass, his eyes are on Downs at first quite a bit...and then he throws to him or adjusts from there. It’s a little like the sense I got from Stroud-Tank Dell, but not as obvious or in a heavy passing game such as what Houston has become. I wanna hold, not start necessarily, Downs the next week or two to see if I’m onto something, if I can.
Michael Pittman (1-15-0/5...2/2 QS) is still the top guy for targets, but Downs could be sneaky PPR good in the days ahead if Richardson starts to really pop. Everything can’t go to Pittman. Downs is an easy throw...and he gets open. Could be like a Nico-Tank situation with Pittman-Downs...only Richardson will throw for about 50-100 yards less per game than Stroud right now.
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2024 COMMENTS: Downs was suddenly the #1 WR for a cup of coffee...then he faded, got banged up, and Pittman-Minshew became a ‘thing’ to finish the season.
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-- The board has flipped on Jonathan Taylor...he’s singing a different tune since no one in the league wanted to trade for him. I think we’ll see Taylor get the start Week 5, as an olive branch and then JT gets 75%+ of the workload and Zack Moss becomes a distant handcuff.
If you’ve got JT...it will be hard not to start him Week 5, but he is facing the top run defense in the league this week.
If you have Moss...best to trade him to the JT owner, unless that is you.
-- The Rams-DST isn’t scoring well for FF, but it’s not a bad defense NFL metrics-wise. Tough on the pass so far this season. Not ready to be pushed as anything but a spot start in a great matchup.
The Colts-DST is actually the #12 scoring FF-DST off having a defensive TD and causing a league leading 8 forced fumbles. Same boat as the Rams...not a bad defense, but not anything I rush into unless a primo matchup. Week 9 they have at CAR.
And Indy losing starting CB Dallis Flowers for the year with a torn Achilles really stings them.
-- Kicker notes...
Brett Maher (3/5 FGs, 2/2 XP) missed two longer FGs, but he did make three and he is the #2 kicker in FF PPG so far this season. He’s got a chance to be a top 3 PK again (was a top guy in 2022) in this offense that’s always getting into FG range.
Matt Gay (0/1 FG, 1/1 XP) followed up his five 50+ yard FG game with a one-point effort. This is how it happens with PKs...one week you hate Daniel Carlson, the next he hits 4-5 FGs on Monday Night Football. Hard to call these guys for any short stretch...but Gay is a legit top kicker, so I wouldn’t hold this against him Week 5.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Pittman
58 = Pierce
47 = Downs
07 = McKenzie
35 = Granson
28 = Ogletree (bigger, slow, OK TE who scored a TD in this game...nothing coming on fast)
17 = Alie-Cox
78 = Nacua
77 = Higbee
71 = Van J
64 = Tutu
59 = Kyren
23 = Rivers
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