INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams for two reasons...
1) Before the season, I thought they were a sub-.500 team for 2023. After watching/scouting the first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, I think the Rams are trying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders to make the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this, is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished from what I wrote in 2023, a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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(Original comments written post-Week 2 week in Sept. 2023)
Game Overview...
I am literally blown away by the L.A. Rams. They look so good. They dumped a lot of ‘names’ and payroll in the offseason and are going with youngsters as replacements, and they look like the best offense...technically/’looks-wise’ (I know KC is better because of Mahomes) that I watch so far this season. It’s like a beautiful symphony being conducted by grand conductor Sean McVay with help from Matt Stafford.
No more Chunky Soup-based making fun of McVay by me. No more doubting Stafford’s health. This Rams team is legit. It might be a strong wild card...and it might be a possible division winner. They went toe-to-toe here with the 49ers and the difference was a few bad breaks for the Rams...a botched catch tipped up to an easy pick turning a strong 3rd-quarter drive into a turnover and 14-point swing over to SF.
It was 17-10 Rams seconds to go before the half when the 49ers got multiple goal-to-go chances aided by penalties to keep it going when they finally scored to tie it 17-17 with seconds remaining. The Rams had driven into SF territory coming out of the half to look to go up 24-17...then that tipped pick turned the tide and SF escaped the ever-coming-back Rams. The Rams very much were even with SF this game...but the experienced 49ers pulled it out.
Dot connections to make (I think) after two weeks revealed.
The Rams are a playoff and division contender, the most improved team in the league (improved by gutting many bloated payroll stars), McVay is Coach of the Year already. Cooper Kupp isn’t even back yet...they will go a step better when he returns.
The Rams beatdown of Seattle was not a fluke or a ‘tell’ on Seattle...who just beat Detroit and looked scrappy-good doing it. SF-LAR-SEA will battle to the finish line in the NFC West.
The 49ers couldn’t stop this Rams offense. The Rams offense is great. The 49ers are not ‘that’ defense. The SF-DST only looked that way Week 1 because they squashed the Steelers. And now we know the Steelers are the worst offense in the league. We don’t know what the SF Defense is...they faced one of the worst offenses (PIT) and one of the best (LAR) so far. I want to see them face an average offense...like NYG this week.
The Steelers and the Rams... Everything I wrote about the Steelers offense yesterday; I absolutely stand by -- it is a disaster imploding without an escape. It’s not getting better any time soon/this year. The opposite of that is the Rams...you want in on the Rams offense over anything to do with the Steelers offense. As poorly coached as the Steelers offense is...the Rams are 180 degrees the opposite and they fixed everything from 2022 in a blink into 2023 with their same 2022 personnel pretty much. The Steelers are worse on offense in 2023...with pretty much the same 2022 personnel and coaches.
If the Rams face wounded Burrow on MNF Week 3...the Rams are the favorite to me, but Cincy would be ‘due’. If Burrow is out -- the Rams will beat Cincy by 2+ scores. I have been slowly building a position of the Rams +2.5 knowing if Burrow is out, it’s a lock...and if Burrow is in...I got a 50-50 shot with the Rams.
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2024 COMMENTS: All I needed to see were two games of the Rams season to predict the future. Sometimes, it’s just that way. It’s great to call the coin flips before the season begins, but as important is – identifying the ‘change’ in things as they unfold, as all the variables change and collide, identifying the changing landscape via hardcore scouting (not highlight watching), and then acting on the new info.
We started betting on the Rams to make the playoffs after they lost this game, and no one in football analysis was even thinking about the Rams as a playoff team at this point (Sept. 2023).
We also called the Steelers trend right...we were believers in them coming out of the preseason, but sprinted from them after two games...and that was a saving grace call on trading George Pickens (among others).
We also confirmed our problems with the 49ers DST going into the season during this game...and it would be the 49ers’ defense that ended up killing them/Brock Purdy couldn’t save them from it in the end. And the SF D-C was fired right after the season ended...their season ended on a Super Bowl loss.
My greatest strength, as a scout, as an FF prognosticator is not my NFL Draft/rookie scouting ahead prowess (which is wonderful) – it’s the adjustments I make/figure out ahead of the mainstream early in the NFL season by crunching the tape and the data incessantly every day of the season.
Winning Fantasy Football is not about having a great FF draft, although that helps...winning FF is about making the right adjustments/changes/trades in season WAY ahead of the mainstream (who isn’t even looking for it because they just highlight-watch and headline read and stick to their original scouting from the preseason…until it’s too late to pivot).
It takes a physical toll on my body...a lack of sleep, a lack of everything in-season scouting all the games in the NFL...but I put in the dirty work to review and study it all, all day, every day, to find the edges we need as bettors and Fantasy players. It paid off with the Rams...betting them to make the playoffs after this week...and they did just that.
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Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- I’m not sure there is a QB playing any better football in the NFL than Matt Stafford (34-55 for 307 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs). This was nearly a 2-3 TD/1 INT game and then everyone would be all excited about him off waivers. Back-to-back 300+ yard games off the bat and potentially Kupp to return soon. I love Stafford as a #2 QB...and as a Burrow fill in right now...LOVE IT.
*Goff v. ATL with no Montgomery I love as a Burrow-help plan as well...I mention that because I see Goff on some waivers in leagues, strangely.
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2024 COMMENT: The Stafford thing was hit & miss all year. He was playing well/racking yards but wasn’t throwing for TDs at a high rate...he was handing cheapies to Kyren. Then Stafford got hurt and scuffled a bit midseason, AND then started ramping up late in the season.
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-- All I can do is sit back and applaud Sean McVay for this passing game concept (180 degrees opposite the Steelers offensive plan) and what he’s done with two disregarded (by me, and most others) WRs...
Puka Nacua (15-147-0/20) is stunning...and I don’t mean visually, I mean: I can’t believe teams aren’t playing him man-to-man more to try and stop him. Teams lay back and let Stafford-Puka pick them apart and all credit to McVay/Stafford...they see it and just keep taking it. For FF, we do the same...just keep playing it until it runs out...if it ever does.
The best-looking WR on the Rams is not Puka...it’s Tutu Atwell (7-77-0/9). It’s taken like 4 years, but he looks fantastic. It’s not just ‘good passing game and oh by the way Tutu is there and gets some work’...no-no. Tutu is putting the rookie class WRs to shame like Addison, Mims, Downs, JSN, etc.
Tutu is real. He’s making every catch...tough catches, diving catches. He’s caught 13-of-17 targets so far this season (76.5%)...and his misconnections have 1-2 catches but just out of bounds. He looks fantastic. And think about this...
If Tutu is now really good AND Stafford is playing the best QB play (or even just top 3-5) in the league...WHAT happens if/when Kupp gets back into the mix? If Tutu is ringing it up in games v. good Seattle and 49ers with Puka as the other WR and no real run game -- what will happen when Kupp is back?
The 2023 Rams are no longer all-Kupp + Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson suck, so even more Kupp. This is a high-flying offense with a healthy Stafford. This could be the Greatest Show on Turf 2.0 when Kupp returns.
Puka is the man of the hour, so no one would dare trade him...but no one cares or thinks Tutu is gonna sustain, so you could get Tutu for little to nothing in a deal, I bet, relatively speaking.
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2024 COMMENT: And that was somewhat true...people were not fully buying the Puka hot start...and it did settle down eventually but was still pretty good to finish the season/when Kupp was back.
It was wrong to go so crazy for Tutu, but it really didn’t cost anything either...that was the charm of it, at the time...because Tutu died when Kupp returned. However, for the price and for the start of the season...it was really good and FF-useful out of the gates. I still don’t know why it fell off so hard/fast.
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-- The Rams have no run game, but they kinda do have a new age run game...a ‘we don’t care about the RB position, we’ll put anyone decent out there and just hit the accelerator in the passing game.’ Sean McVay is pivoting away from the 90%+ of the NFL that wants to power run all the time...that’s where NFL coaches get their jollies, they love ‘pads cracking’ and ‘imposing wills’ and such...
Where Najee Harris is helping kill the Steelers offense by Mike Tomlin’s own hand. McVay said, “F that,” and benched tired/inefficient Cam Akers and is just going with a scatback or two...which fits his 2023 motif -- up-tempo, spread out, efficient passing game as a substitute run game.
It's like Sean McVay is kinda going Moneyball here…from the 1990s. Most every NFL team/coach wants to contain their QB to safe passing, scripted throws working around the nonstop run game...most NFL coaches are Arthur Smith at heart. Also, teams are running around signing free agent hacks to big money deals and watching them rarely payoff. And NFL teams are constantly trying to accumulate high/any draft picks. The Rams ditched a lot of veterans, they never have draft picks, and they are building an offense for the new era around the passing game not the run game -- so the RB doesn’t really matter as long as they can block and catch and run on occasion. McVay is the new Belichick -- getting ahead of the future for everyone to follow...next year/s.
I am a huge 2023 Rams fan...where I thought they’d bust/rebuild this year for 2024. They are not. They are legit. Andrew DFS was right all along when I tried to tell him he was crazy back in August for liking the Rams 2023.
Kyren Williams (14-52-1, 6-48-1/10) is going to work great in this offensive concept...I missed it mostly because I didn’t like Kyren’s scouting coming into the NFL and he was a flop last year. He’s reborn in 2023 and in a perfect place for touches. I don’t know if it’s sustainable with his interior running but they aren’t asking him to be Earl Campbell...he just puts his head down and runs until they tackle him. But he works as a dump pass outlet for Stafford...which I’ll take targets and touches over style/power at RB for FF -- IF the coach is using it.
Jaylen Warren is the better version of Kyren Williams, but Kyren is with McVay and Warren is with Tomlin and it’s killing the Steelers offense and Warren’s earning potential while McVay has to make do with Kyren, and he’ll get numbers and get paid off it.
Ronnie Rivers (1-4-0/1) is a similar-ish Kyren...if KW goes down, Rivers might assume that same role. Rookie Zach Evans should be active Week 3 but will be used for short yardage bully running on a limited basis.
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2024 COMMENT: To further the theory that McVay is purposefully moving to smaller backs...the Rams did not sign or draft a ‘big’ RB this offseason. They have mostly smaller (height) and 200 +/- pound RBs for their entire depth chart right now.
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-- The 49ers also played in this game...and they won! Not that you would know that by my Rams hype man work to this point.
Brock Purdy (17-25 for 205 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-5-1) was so fundamentally sound here that he was the difference in the win. He’s so unflappable in the pocket. You want Stafford for FF...but Purdy for the on-field win...but there was little difference on how good each QB looked here in this game.
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2024 COMMENT: Wrong! You wanted Purdy...but not just yet. You wanted Purdy when we were going crazy telling everyone to go get Purdy for nothing, when Purdy had a 2-3 game rough patch midseason, and as Colin Cowherd and friends were pushing Sam Darnold as the 49ers best QB option that Shanahan had to make a move to. We made a killing when the world turned on Purdy early-2023.
One of the best FFM-alert moves of 2023 was the robbery of Brock Purdy in all formats, when the mainstream was calling for him to be benched. He would become one of the top 5 QBs in Fantasy the 2nd-half of the season.
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-- Deebo Samuel (5-38-1, 6-63-0/9) had a good game, finally...seems like he’s faded into the background too much the past two seasons. BUT when Brandon Aiyuk (3-43-0/6) got banged up early, they went away from him to spare him...used him as a decoy and then went heavy Deebo.
The first plan for SF is Aiyuk-led in the passing game. Aiyuk, if OK from his shoulder, is a great buy low attempt...he’s a PPR WR1 threat all day long...if/when healthy.
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2024 COMMENT: And it was... Aiyuk was a WR1 for the 2023 season. We drafted him as a WR3. We were trading for him as a WR2.5 at this point of the season.
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-- George Kittle (3-30-0/3) in the midst of all this? 3.0 rec., 24.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game in 2023 so far. Played 96% of the snaps Week 2...it’s not the groin.
In their two playoff games together (ignoring the Philly playoff game) and their first two games together in 2023, Kittle is averaging (with Purdy): 3.3 rec., 45.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
Prior to that, Kittle had a hot streak of 7 TDs in 4 games to finish the 2022 season -- all of it coming with Deebo out of the lineup/game (but back lightly for Week 18).
(career, including playoffs but not PHI playoff) Kittle with Purdy playing majority/all game and Deebo/Aiyuk full: 3.2 rec. (4.0 targets), 38.5 yds, 0.0 TDs (6 games)...no game over 5 targets.
(career, including playoffs but not PHI playoff) Kittle with Purdy playing majority/all game and Deebo OUT or just back from injury/managed snaps: 4.5 rec. (6.8 targets), 66.3 yds, 1.75 TDs per game (4 games)
Kittle with Purdy and Deebo has been a TE2 killing his FF owners.
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2024 COMMENT: Kittle ended up breaking that trend some, but was still all up-and-down and erratic to try to use for FF. He ended up a top 6 PPR scorer, which was good/fine...but it was nothing special.
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-- The Rams-DST really fought the 49ers offense pretty well here, despite the 30pts...the 49ers are really sound/good. If this Rams-DST gets Jake Browning this week v. CIN...they could be the DST of the week quite easily.
The 49ers-DST struggled with the Rams offense most all game. This game/struggle means more to me than the Week 1 beatdown of the Steelers, because the Steelers are hapless...as we saw on MNF Week 2. I’m not buying into the 49ers DST as ‘great’. I didn’t in the preseason, then had to admit I could be wrong after Week 1s dominance...but this Week 2 SF-DST was more what I was thinking for 2023...not a great/elite defense like everyone thinks. The Rams really should’ve planted 30+ on SF here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
75 = Tutu
74 = Higbee
69 = Puka
66 = Van
76 = Kyren W
04 = Ronnie Rivers
51 = Deebo
30 = Aiyuk
27 = R Bell
27 = Jauan J
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