2024 INTRO:
We’re looking back at the L.A. Rams 2023 season, going from Week 1 to their playoff loss and looking back at my 2023 game reports filed post-game and making 2024 comments/judgments on what I wrote as immediate reactions to each game last season.
I picked the Rams first for this offseason’s report series for two reasons...
1) Before the 2023 season, I thought the Rams were a sub-.500 team for the season.
After watching/scouting their first 1-2 games to start their 2023 season, I thought they were one of the most undervalued teams in the 2023 season and started betting them to make the playoffs, as I was watching them come of age...and then they did (shockingly) make the playoffs.
Today, 2024, I think the Rams are vying to be one of the top 5 teams in the NFL...one of the only serious contenders in the NFL to get to the Super Bowl.
So, I wanted to look back at their 2023 season at a slow pace and re-read what I was writing/seeing and see what I was seeing right or wrong about things, and how they might matter for 2024.
2) There were two Rams players that I had big scouting misses on...and it was perplexing and made me mad, still mad to this day. I can’t get everything right, but the two Rams things I got wrong were HUGE Fantasy misses – Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
It’s a must to look back at things that went wrong and analyze them and see if they were really wrong or just a blip, and if wrong...what was missed, could it be lessons learned for the future?
And a ‘third’ reason I do this...is to give a little daily football action to read about in the deep offseason -- to kinda keep football game play alive...in a weird way. Every day, I’ll publish the next game of my 2024 commentary on the Rams 2023 season a week at a time through to the season end.
My 2024 comments will be clearly distinguished, and inserted between what I wrote in 2023...things I wrote/analyzed a day or so after their game ended after watching it live and then watching back again on tape after...like I do every game of an NFL season for FF and betting analysis.
So, here goes with the first REWIND team series of 2024 – the shocking L.A. Rams...
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Game Overview (written in Sept. 2023) ...
Well, this one looked as bad on tape as it did on the live watch.
The best way I can describe what happened... Seattle came out with a plan and confidence and took control-ish of the game. The Rams also had a plan, and it wasn’t working all that well -- Seattle had a 13-7 halftime lead. Somewhere into the 2nd-quarter, the Rams found/discovered/fell into/materialized a plan, one that was not the original plan -- and they ran with it and it was killing the Seahawks/Seattle couldn’t stop it.
The plan they found was two-fold:
1: They discovered Cam Akers sucks and they started leaning some on Kyren Williams in the run game.
2: They discovered Puka Nacua was their new Cooper Kupp.
They did not have that plan to start, in my opinion, they just started adjusting into it and Seattle couldn’t/wouldn’t stop it, so they just kept going to it...and Seattle kept not stopping it.
Then Seattle lost both their Right and Left Tackle in the 2nd-half, and thus the Seahawks fell apart on offense...to match their falling apart defense and things got out of hand and the Rams outscored Seattle 23-0 in the 2nd-half.
It was shocking to watch, but credit to the Rams for finding something and just going with it. Many/most NFL teams would go back to the same old familiar stuff...not L.A., they ditched Akers and Higbee/Van and went Kyren/Puka/Tutu and...I also need to 'credit' Seattle, they made NO adjustments and just watched Puka find a spot in the zone and sit down for easy pitch-and-catches.
The Rams earned this win. Seattle definitely earned this loss. If they played again Week 2, Seattle would likely have a better plan and make more of a game of it (and if SEA didn’t lose both O-tackles)...but leave that to the 49ers to figure out how to stop Kyren/Puka this week...it didn’t look complicated to stop what the Rams were doing, but Seattle sure couldn’t figure it out.
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2024 COMMENTS: Reading this report again, it jogged my memory on something that seems so bizarre...but I’ll go to my grave believing it was true...
1) Kyren Williams as the lead was not the plan AT ALL. The Rams planned all training camp and preseason for Cam Akers to be their lead back with split-ish support from Kyren Williams. All those weeks and months of practicing/planning, and the plan blew up halfway into their Week 1 game – and Kyren would go on to be a fantastic producer. And Cam Akers...well...a different fate for him in 2023...remembering he was a running back that everyone adored just a couple years prior.
You gotta watch out trying to predict or ride any single Rams RB. Sean McVay will turn on them on a dime. It happened to Gurley with Darrell Henderson.
It happened to Henderson with Akers.
It them went from Akers back to Henderson, then Malcom Brown, back to Akers.
From Akers to Kyren in 2023.
Wonder what McVay is thinking drafting Blake Corum #83 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft when he has Kyren Williams?
2) Puka Nacua didn’t come out of the gates, in this game, as full ‘Puka’...the future Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Three catches for 43 yards with 2 minutes to go before halftime, and it was interesting but not radical. Then it started getting more interesting in the hurry up offense before the half and then ramped up more in the 2nd-half.
After this game you were left wondering – was this because Stafford and Puka have a ‘thing’ going in, or is this just because Cooper Kupp is out for the first five games of the season?
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Player Dynasty/Fantasy Notes...
-- Rewatching this game, my main priority was to see if Puka Nacua (10-119-0/15) was being Cooper Kupp 2.0 fully...or not.
He was and he wasn’t.
It was a lot of Puka just running free in the slot and finding an easy space in the zone and sitting down and Stafford laid it on him...time after time after time after time. Eventually, they put Michael Jackson on him...and I think the former pop singer Michael Jackson could’ve done a better job in coverage, but Puka just...I’m gonna do it...’Beat It’ on Jackson covering him and Nacua had a night.
This heavy Puka plan did not look like the Rams main plan to begin with, but it was there as the game unfolded...and it was wonderful. It got better as it went.
All we can assume is -- this Puka thing isn’t going away. At least, not until Cooper Kupp returns. If Kupp returns. I have to play this like these targets will continue for Puka. My fear is...this looked cool Week 1, but now that everyone has seen it -- Puka is about to face two very tough defenses with good+ slot corners, in the 49ers and Bengals...and if they squash Puka-Stafford, if they gear up to stop it, and they should...then Puka will have a mild/normal game and everyone will instantly regret on using heavy FAAB or Waiver priority.
AND THEN...if Puka is halted by bad matchups the next two weeks, you’re potentially two weeks closer to Cooper Kupp returning. And then what did you get for your money off waivers this week? Still, the target levels and connection on display...and the possibility Kupp will need more time or a long time -- if I have Kupp, I'm gonna want Puka as a handcuff. I’m kinda stuck with the choice this early in the year.
Puka wasn’t Kupp-like in all his routes, etc., but I don’t think the Rams saw this (this huge outbreak) coming...it happened, and they went with it. I’m sure they’ll spend all week getting him ‘Kupp to speed’...I got a million of them.
There’s two ways to play Puka, and this is doubly important for Kupp owners...
1) You go all-in to get him. Heavy/silly FAAB. Waiver priority. Trade heavy for him. He’s the man of the hour with a huge stat line and everyone saying this is the new Cooper Kupp. You’re gonna bleed to get him.
2) Just let it go...even Kupp owners. Let everyone else dive in and do the dirty/ugly work and get their hearts broken. Then if SF squashes the Rams and/or Puka, and he has like a 4-42-0 line Week 2 in a Rams loss -- then come calling Week 3...or if then Cincy holds him down Week 3, then the price drops further -- and you didn’t miss anything by not paying huge for it because he had WR3/4 weeks and then you come in and pay a lesser price...and if ‘Kupp is returning’ talk happens the price will drop even further.
This #2 plan uniquely has merit, a lot of merit, because...ONLY because...the Rams are playing SF and CIN in back-to-back weeks and that’s the worst combo they could get coming up.
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2024 COMMENT: This was a huge moment for the early FF season...the decision on whether to buy into this Puka uprising, or avoid it as a blip/fear Kupp would return and change it back from a carriage to a pumpkin.
It was not a pumpkin.
Puka was a free agent in many traditional sized FF leagues/redrafts going into Week 2 waiver claims/bidding.
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It’s not an easy call...it’s hard to wait...you’re gonna get the jitters, especially if you have Kupp and you got killed in Week 1 and you’re gonna want to save the season all in one fell swoop with swashbuckling (desperate) moves -- but there is plenty of time and opportunity to tinker with your bad-loss Week 1 team that seems like the sky is falling. If you scored well and lost Week 1...you’d feel better but you’re still (0-1). You scored way down and lost big Week 1, so now the season already seems lost. You can’t give into that, but many will.
We should be targeting every team/owner who scored low and lost big Week 1 -- mostly it’s an optical illusion that is creating mass panic, and I’m not giving hyperbole. There is more panic this week by teams who lost big than at any single time in an FF season, even Week 1, then I’ve ever seen before. FF teams that lost big Week 1 with down scoring are the zebra that strayed from the pack and you’re the pride of Cheetahs creeping in for the kill.
Most won’t act like the Cheetahs...they are more the confused, strayed Zebra and are going to get pounced on either by the Cheetahs, or by consumed by their own hand overspending in free agency, dropping the wrong players, making panicked trades.
Be the Cheetah.
At a minimum, don’t be the wandering, ignorant zebra.
Honestly, most will be the zebra...now running for its life in a frenzy. Patience and context is lost on most football fans and FF players. I get it. It’s easy for me to say. Yes, it is easy for me to say because I am tapped into 100s of teams over 10-15 years and do this for a living, but what do I know?
I’m being snippy to try and snap some out of the Week 1 funk. All my experience knows...it won’t work on most. However, it’s my job to try and keep inside the protection of the herd right now. We got a long way to go, and opportunity is excellent right now because there is mass hysteria panic. All the bad can be turned into good this week...then if everything reverses Week 2 and you score/win big -- Week 1 is a forgotten laugh.
It’s not an easy call to wait or chase Puka this week...especially for Kupp owners. I’m saying -- think it through, what is best. You may have to chase it hard. But you are likely not going to fix everything that ails you this week...and you may not need to really fix anything anyway, but rather just get to Week 2 and get a normal week/win and then everything is different.
The bottom, bottom line on Puka -- I think this is legit. No Kupp, then it's Puka as a top target for LAR. Kupp returns, it's heavy Kupp and Puka is a #3 WR who is sporadically targeted.
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2024 COMMENT: I was right and wrong. Puka was legit from here, but it didn’t fall that much when Kupp returned.
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-- After observing Puka, it was time to check out the Tutu Atwell (6-119-0/8) outbreak. Was it real?
Yes and no. When Puka started going off -- the Seattle coverage got all twisted and Tutu started finding opportunity and he ran with it. He looked fine. He didn’t look unreal, but he didn’t look lucky either. He was quick and started getting nice targets off the Puka hysteria that hit Seattle. The Rams had a hard time running, so they threw it a lot to move the ball...quick hitters to Puka or Tutu. The two caught 16 of Stafford’s 24 completions.
Tutu is the #2 to Puka (Kupp). Whatever we think the #2 WR for the Rams is worth...that’s Tutu. And teams will now know to cover Tutu (and Puka)...so SF and CIN are two tough pass defenses coming. If Tutu goes 3-30-0/5 Week 2...there will be HUGE hand wringing over wasting whatever resources picking him up. And it feels like that could happen with SF and CIN ahead.
Kendrick Bourne has a great Week 1 and people are unsure whether to chase him at all. Tutu Atwell has a great Week 1, and everyone wants in. We love the new, fresh stuff. We don’t care if you’re ‘old news’ -- _____ (Bourne, Meyers, Josh Reynolds, Hayden Hurst, et. al.) just got lucky Week 1...but Puka and Tutu are fun names and fresh performers and imagine how great they will be this year!
Just be careful your early season mind, with one of 18 week’s results to consider, doesn’t run away with you.
If we were redrafting this week...would you take Tutu, or George Pickens with a particular pick? What about Puka or Pickens? Just using an example to try and add some context right now.
*I was listening to Sean McVay talk about the Rams Week 1 performance, late last night/wee hours, on his talk show. I know he is jazzed by Puka and Tutu...especially Tutu. I don’t think these guys are going to fall out of favor for LAR -- but SF and CIN Weeks 2-3 may throw cold water over this, temporarily. But make no mistake, Puka and Tutu are going to be part of the Rams plans for 2023. But did you see what SF did to the Steelers? I’ll be doing that game study/report next, and already have rewatched the game -- the 49ers defense is really, really good.
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2024 COMMENT: I was as excited about Tutu as I was Puka, which clouded the picture here. Did the Rams just go off on Seattle, in general...or was Puka really becoming star...and was Tutu as well?
Tutu was terrific to start the season, without Kupp.
After the first 3 games of 2023, Puka was #7 in PPR PPG...Tutu was #16. But Puka would keep rising from there, and Tutu mysteriously disappeared and was benched by season’s end – which is perplexing because as good as Puka was...Tutu was killing it too. Tutu was fantastic on the field...and then it just ended.
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-- Matt Stafford (24-38 for 334 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) looked really good here. Back to the old Stafford. Part of the help...the Rams O-Line really held up...or Seattle’s pass rush sucks. Again, Stafford was comfortable and picking apart the Seattle underneath zone with Puka and Tutu...what happens in games with top pass D’s/top pass rusher pressure defenses in SF and CIN the next two weeks?
-- Stafford, to me, is now more desired ahead than Geno Smith (16-26 for 112 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 1-6-0) for FF the next little bit. Not because I’m bailing on one bad Geno event...but it’s more that Geno lost his two offensive tackles for an unknown amount of time (they say day-to-day, but it might be a week or 2-3). That’s a killer. I wrote this summer about the ‘middle class’ QBs who lived on protection (or died without it)...Geno was the prime example. Now, he’s lost his most important protection. And Stafford had supreme protection/time Week 1. Not sure he gets that in Week’s 2-3...if he does, it's game-on with Stafford 2023.
-- If/as Geno falls...so does Tyler Lockett (2-10-0/4) and D.K. Metcalf (3-47-1/5). We’ll know more on how long those tackles will be out during the week...and that will have a huge impact on offensive performance for SEA ahead. They are already bringing in a free agent OL for a tryout, so that’s not encouraging.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3-13-0/5) looked fine but is not really in sync with Geno just yet...and he’d be at some risk with Geno falling on the bad OL issues as well.
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2024 COMMENT: I got Puka’s 2023/future projections wrong in the preseason, but I did not get Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2023 season projection wrong. He started out in a hole and pretty much stayed there all season. A combination of – he’s not that good AND Metcalf-Lockett were too much to ask to overcome and be a top guy with an established QB.
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-- Kenneth Walker (12-64-0, 4-3-0/5) got a majority of the work, and Zach Charbonnet (3-11-0) was a bit player. That will change in time, but it’s heavy Walker right now -- and he will be hurt by the OT/OL issues as well. Charbonnet probably won’t FF-matter for several weeks.
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2024 COMMENT: This tried to change at various parts of the season, as frustrations leaked with Walker...Charbonnet was given opportunity and snaps, but not a ton of touches and he never displaced Walker...just cut into him a bit/
I still say Charbonnet is a threat to Walker...because Charbonnet is the better back, in my book...but Walker is good too.
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-- OK, what about Kyren Williams (15-52-2, 0-2-0/2)? It was a rotation early, but really more Cam Akers (22-29-1) getting the touches early and often...but he was going nowhere.
Kyren came in and literally had the same running play every time -- straight ahead, head down, ran as fast as he could and as far as the space would take him. He’s not a legit ‘carry the ball a lot’ RB, but he can take a few totes for a change of pace.
BUT Akers was so bad here...and is not great anyway, it meant Kyren got more work and got the short yardage TDs -- and it could mean Kyren gets more looks ahead because Akers isn’t cutting it. If Akers gets going, he’ll be the goal line guy and Kyren is ‘change of pace’. With SF and CIN coming up, two top run stopping defenses...Akers/Kyren might be getting ready to have a rude awakening.
But Kyren looks better than Akers, that’s for sure.
If Akers flakes out, Ronnie Rivers will be in the rotation soon.
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2024 COMMENT: I would have never guessed Kyren would be a strong RB1 in 2023. I get a ton of credit for Rachaad and Pacheco scouting callas way ahead of the football world, but I should maybe take a slap for not scouting Kyren for this possibility.
Still, to this day...I still don’t get it with Kyren. How did this happen...how he was so productive? I think it was ‘the system’, but I never thought Kyren could even work in a great system.
I missed it. And I probably always will...but I do believe this was the start of the small-back revolution coming to the NFL. You don’t need 210-215+ pound RBs to be the every-touch lead. You can work a run game with several scatbacks. Most NFL head coaches, especially the old school ones, will NEVER give into that thought...they want big ‘bangers’.
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-- IDP notes for LAR...
Ernest Jones (9 tackles, 3 TFLs) had a nice game at middle linebacker for LAR. He’s been up and down as their starter, but solid here.
Rookie EDGE Byron Young (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits) really look good/quick. He’s already a starter and he showed why here.
-- IDP notes for SEA...
Bobby Wagner (19 tackles, 1 TFL) is back...and was the reason why LAR ran the ball 40 times for just 92 yards...just 2.3 yards...but also part of why LAR threw all over them.
Jordyn Brooks (12 tackles) is also back, returning from ACL injury, and got double digit tackles per usual.
-- Brett Maher (3/5 FGs) is the Rams kicker, the shaky one from 2022 -- and he had one blocked and missed one...but hit three FGs, one over 50+. Hopefully, he’s past the yips.
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2024 COMMENT: The Rams drafting Josh Karty in 2024 is going to be an opportunity at being the lead kicker for a progressive offense. But it’s so hard to rely on rookie kickers...
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Tomorrow, we look at the Rams Week 2 battle with the 49ers...
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