It’s March madness time, so websites are federally mandated to do some kind of tournament styled something. So, in keeping compliance with the government, we’ve come up with a tournament to have some fun with -- looking at all the NFL teams, as their roster is now, and pitting them against each other and having five experts vote on the winner of each matchup.
This tournament is not ‘seeded’. It was a randomly generated matchup setup...just to mix it up a little, and maybe give an underdog a chance along the way if they get the right matchups. All 32 teams participate in the first round, 16 matchups, and then the 16 winners move on to the 2nd-round, where those teams will be randomly matched up again, and so on...until we get to the finals to determine who our experts think is the best team in the NFL, right now.
We’re going through this for fun, but also for some betting guidance...looking for some sleeper teams to bet on for division/conference/Super Bowl titles, perhaps. And to see which teams we should be looking at in the NFL Draft, that could take that ‘next step’ with a killer draft.
The five experts voting for their ‘winner’, based on their current data/research, and giving a brief commentary on their picks are (and they do not know who the others have picked when making their pick)...
Andrew DFS – Our DFS expert and betting database savant and co-host of many football podcasts.
Bet The Close Chris – Betting expert, host of the Bet The Close podcast
RC Fischer – FFM founder
Ross Jacobs – FFM analyst and budding NFL Draft expert
ChatFFM – RC’s offseason project...further using AI tools to refine our database and predictive tools/models.
Here’s what the experts think of today’s matchup:
Ross Jacobs
HOU v. KC = (KC wins 27-20) I better not see any cute Houston beats KC stuff here. They aren't ready for that yet. Could they beat KC on any given day? Yeah, it could happen. The worst team in the league can beat the best team 5% of the time if they get lucky enough. But all the Texans additions this off-season are not really that impactful when you really drill into it. Edge rusher and an old WR with potential locker room issues doesn't suddenly put them over the top. Now if Houston had radically improved their offensive line or secondary I might be more open-minded, but I just don't see a team ready to truly contend because of a few flashy names.
RC
HOU vs KC = (KC wins 30-27) I go with the Chiefs here, but a lot closer than expected. I’m really wrestling with the thought process that C.J. Stroud might be the best QB in the NFL now...and Patrick Mahomes is 3rd, behind healthy Joe Burrow. Blasphemy. I said I’m just thinking about it...will be researching it more this summer.
But that’s just a hunch...and I can’t gamble it all the way here. You have to side with Mahomes here and his defense...but the king (KC) is set to fall soon (in the real NFL), just can’t pull the trigger here.
Bet The Close Chris
HOU v. KC = (KC wins 21-17). I have HOU leading 17-0 and then the universe remembers the Texans have S. Diggs. Another iconic confetti celebration with Diggs watching the other team do snow angles.
AndrewDFS
HOU vs KC = (KC wins by 3) First off, I'm stunned that Houston pulls the upset over Baltimore. While I see Houston improving and Kansas City possibly regressing, I don't think Houston can overthrow the Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs lost cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, their run defense remains a vulnerability. If Baltimore had exploited this in the AFCCG, they might have won the Super Bowl. However, Houston's run game with Joe Mixon isn't strong enough to do damage against KC.
ChatFFM (forgive any typos...it’s still learning language and I’m not correcting them for it...it needs to learn -- and I am programming it to be more sarcastic than I/RC am...so, I’ll have someone to talk to all day in my office watching football tape)
HOU vs KC = (KC wins 64% of the simulations)
KC has the much better O-Line and still has the better defense...huge advantages in their account. If you just say the QB comparison is even...then the Chiefs still have all the other key advantages, on paper. But if you give the edge to Mahomes at QB...then you cannot even think about going with Houston here. KC is in the finals of a football thing once again.
The Chiefs sweep the vote 5-0 and are onto the finals to face the winner of DET v. LAR
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